Time to face facts - Warriors are not underachieving.

[Sleepy51]

It just sucks to be two years late to this realization. Lacob and Meters had said that the operating thesis was that the “core” deserved the chance to fail. They failed last year. Bring the same roster construction back this year was 100% throwing good money after bad. The rebuild project should have started at the 23 trade deadline when they knew it was over. We could have possible reassembled a contender around Curry in time for 24-25 season with that lead time. Now we are way behind whatever curve remains.

[superunknown]

It just sucks to be two years late to this realization. Lacob and Meters had said that the operating thesis was that the “core” deserved the chance to fail. They failed last year. Bring the same roster construction back this year was 100% throwing good money after bad. The rebuild project should have started at the 23 trade deadline when they knew it was over. We could have possible reassembled a contender around Curry in time for 24-25 season with that lead time. Now we are way behind whatever curve remains.

indeed.
"this core has never lost a playoff series when everyone healthy and available". that's what meyers was saying in front of the cameras.
they did last year in the second round of the playoffs and everyone in the organization acted like it never happened. ridiculous.
they should've reset around steph last summer after the core (healthy and available) lost. instead they even double-down on that with the kerr' extension. even more ridiculous.
sunset boulevard warriors edition.

[xdrta+]

Better to tank at this point, rest Curry, and take a run at FA this off season and REALLY consider blowing this up.

How much cap room do you think they'll have to "take a run at FA" this off season? I'll help you out. The cap is projected to be $141M. The Warriors have 8 players on guaranteed salaries for 24-25 totaling $137M.

My bad. I should have included trading salarys of Wiggins, for example, to make that work. The key is upgrading a second star - whatever means necessary. If that's impossible. blow it up.

Even then, in order to create cap space, you have to trade salaries and take nothing but draft picks back. That means trading them to teams with cap space, which means those teams can sign premium free agents themselves rather than taking the Warriors high-salaried discards. I'm afraid the idea of the Warriors signing the better free agents is wishful thinking.

[floppymoose]

I dont think getting a second star will work. They wont be good enough. They probably wont even be better, given JK and Podz are the only things anyone would want.


Instead they should start moving away from the vets. Let Klay walk. Trade Wiggins for youth if possible. Dray too. Looney too.


They are going to be bad either way. Might as well start building for the future.

[bicycle]

Wouldn't mind keeping Looney. He seems like he'd be a great vet presence on a tanking team.

But yeah, the tank has to start next year. I don't know what we're trying to accomplish beyond just selling tickets at Chase if we do anything else. We have a few young pieces who should be solid starters for their careers, but we don't have anyone who we could confidently say is our best player for the next 10 years, so we have to start hunting for that guy.

Maybe Kuminga takes a couple leaps and becomes Him. It's not out of the question, but we won't even know that much unless he's given the keys.

[CDM_Stats]

They absolutely are underachieving and data couldnt be clearer about it. But would it be to the extent to matter? Hard to say.. but positive momentum is a thing and if certain things were tried earlier in the year, and they worked, who knows? Its why its key to identify problems early and correct them. That's not something the current coaching staff can do, so it is what it is

[WarriorGM]

That's what makes watching this team particularly frustrating, the data is pretty clear about what could be done and the coaching staff is very slow and unimaginative at coming up with possible solutions. When Wiggins and Klay were playing below par that was when JK and Moody should have started to get more minutes. But it took Kerr getting embarrassed for Kuminga to get more opportunity and Moody is still in the doghouse. Admittedly Moody hasn't been able to seize the opening putting a ceiling on the team's potential.

From what I can tell the most realistic way the team can significantly improve is for Wiggins to return to form or for Kuminga, Moody, or Podz to take another jump. Another way might be to find alchemical magic with Curry. Curry has been one of the greatest at unlocking potential. Curry being paired with Green fundamentally changed the team. That's why every player on the team should have had starting minutes playing with Curry by now. That they haven't shows the coaching staff still doesn't fully understand what they have with Curry. It took ages for them to start playing GP2 with Curry for example and TJD more recently. Curry is a walking litmus test that can quickly determine a player's serviceability.

[marthafokker]

What makes it worse is getting Kerr renew before the end of the year.

I am scared that MDJ will do a LAL and keeps this circus up. Only to probably keep CP3, and resign Klay for more of this mess. Then try to sell the message of, Dubbs ready to win another ring with our midget group.

At least the Queen can get FAs for cheap to play with him. In fact, most FAs hate us.

[wco81]

Well when the Warriors lost the play-in game to the Lakers and Grizzlies in 2021, it looked like the team was done, either in need of bottoming out or no better than contend for the play-in.

Then they made a couple of minimum salary signings, Porter and Bjelica and they just took off the next season.

So are we at the same crossroads now or do we really need to bottom out this time, though Curry is signed two more seasons? And I don't think he wants to retire after his current deal runs out either.

Can trading away future FRPs for a very good starter swing it or it's too late?

Bottoming out means several years of high lottery picks so at least 2-3 sub 30-win seasons and needing to hit on a couple of those picks for every good starters who have at least all-star ceilings.

[Jester_]

It just sucks to be two years late to this realization. Lacob and Meters had said that the operating thesis was that the “core” deserved the chance to fail. They failed last year. Bring the same roster construction back this year was 100% throwing good money after bad. The rebuild project should have started at the 23 trade deadline when they knew it was over. We could have possible reassembled a contender around Curry in time for 24-25 season with that lead time. Now we are way behind whatever curve remains.

Bingo.

Last year made sense. WTF was the point in this year? They thought running it back with CP3 instead of Poole was going to change the outcome? And why are we extending our coach halfway through this year?

Lightyears behind.

[Impuniti]

They absolutely are underachieving, Kerr has been absolute disgrace as a coach this season. Would they be a contender if say Spo was coaching them? No. But any half decent coach that doesn't put moronic 3 or 4 guard lineups when he has the smallest team in the league would have several more wins. This team is not good enough to be a contender, but they should be higher up in the standings.

This was obvious for awhile by the way. Sleepy's post is right on the money as well.

[Crazy-Canuck]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

[Impuniti]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

I don't want to be mean but I don't know how anyone can see kerr using 3-4 guard lineups and say this team is not underachieving. Common sense doesn't seem common.

[marthafokker]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

I don't want to be mean but I don't know how anyone can see kerr using 3-4 guard lineups and say this team is not underachieving. Common sense doesn't seem common.

Unfortunately, I think he really believes his Kool-aid. Myers ran before he got blamed.

[ILOVEIT]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

IMO the reason Kerr goes with midget ball is BECAUSE the team is otherwise flawed. If you can't win playing straight up, you go with the small ball lineup and hope it bails you out. Use to work. Now it just ends the game sooner.

Kerr didn't play midget ball against New York and we lost.
Didn't play that line up for three quarters and we were down after three against Indianna.

Let's look at it this way: Don Nelson ran out small lineups year after year. Was it because they were an effective championship level option - hell no. It was because the team was never built with size. (and when they got Webber he F'ed it up again).

We beat the Celtics because we had better shooting, bigger wings and an all-star performance by Wiggins.

We don't have that now. No size (TJD is 6'9" in case we forget), average shooting (Klay is below average now....hasn't seen 50% all season). Draymond doesn't shoot, Kuminga is iffy from range, Wiggins wildly inconsisent. Podz isn't great.

So tell me, how is this group anything but the record they are?

[WarriorGM]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

IMO the reason Kerr goes with midget ball is BECAUSE the team is otherwise flawed. If you can't win playing straight up, you go with the small ball lineup and hope it bails you out. Use to work. Now it just ends the game sooner.

Kerr didn't play midget ball against New York and we lost.
Didn't play that line up for three quarters and we were down after three against Indianna.

Let's look at it this way: Don Nelson ran out small lineups year after year. Was it because they were an effective championship level option - hell no. It was because the team was never built with size. (and when they got Webber he F'ed it up again).

We beat the Celtics because we had better shooting, bigger wings and an all-star performance by Wiggins.

We don't have that now. No size (TJD is 6'9" in case we forget), average shooting (Klay is below average now....hasn't seen 50% all season). Draymond doesn't shoot, Kuminga is iffy from range, Wiggins wildly inconsisent. Podz isn't great.

So tell me, how is this group anything but the record they are?

This team has blown some double digits leads that with some more judicious coaching could conceivably have been wins and that is supported by having the 7th highest SRS in the conference so that right there suggests this team should be better than their record.

Of the top 5 players on the team by minutes played 4 of them are negative in BPM. Draymond and Chris Paul who are positive were out for some time and TJD and Moody who have better or equal BPM are probably being underplayed. And Wiggins who probably should be expected to be the second best player on the team has the worst BPM of the top 5 in minutes was coming off an injury earlier in the season and has a family issue distracting him.

[Senchu]

Warriors are not underachieving because the Kerr is part of the team.
Kerr is not a player whose minutes you can cut when he is playing bad lineups.
If data models show that Warriors are underachieving then data models need more data input of Kerr’s unwillingness to play the efficient lineups.
We need coach metrics!

[Jester_]

I'm with underachieving.

We are seeing kerr sabotage rotations and forcing midget ball. It doesn't work.

Now we are going to see 3 or 4 small guards vs the wolves and their 7 fters. And kerr will think it's a match up advantage for us.

I don't want to be mean but I don't know how anyone can see kerr using 3-4 guard lineups and say this team is not underachieving. Common sense doesn't seem common.

Unfortunately, I think he really believes his Kool-aid. Myers ran before he got blamed.

The post-Curry years are going to be challenging for these people and their delusions.

[Impuniti]

Warriors are not underachieving because the Kerr is part of the team.
Kerr is not a player whose minutes you can cut when he is playing bad lineups.
If data models show that Warriors are underachieving then data models need more data input of Kerr’s unwillingness to play the efficient lineups.
We need coach metrics!

We don't need coaching metrics, he just got a 2 year extension. The lightyears FO wouldn't do something so dumb if he was actually doing bad.

[Sleepy51]

Clearly a lot of posters share a particular set of basketball strategy criticisms of Kerr, and can articulate some level of statistical support for those arguments. I would be REALLY curious if any Kerr advocates can articulate and support what it is that he is actually adding on the positive side of the balance sheet right now? Not in the past. We all know the track record and all include that in the calculus to whatever degree we see fit. But what's is the present case in favor of Kerr in terms of what he's adding to the quality of basketball being played? I'm actually open to being convinced because in all likely reality, he's not going anywhere for at least 2 years. I'd rather not find those years torturous so can someone help convince me to have faith?