Ryan Pace. The rebuild debate.

[City of Trees]

There has been plenty of debate lately about the path of our Bears under Pace. Specifically, 1. how Pace failed/couldn't win with the roster he inherited, and 2. how long (or too long, for some) his rebuild has been in operation.

So, I found a side by side comparison of the roster Pace inherited next to Pace's current roster as of today May 2nd, 2018.

Read on Twitter

IMO this image will help refresh us as we rage on in the debate.

[City of Trees]

Full disclosure purposes I believe the 2014 K and P was Gould and Podlesh.


I know some will want that included in this debate.

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[fleet]

8th pick after 3 years. All I know. Got a QB last year. Had a good year this offseason. Finally grew into the job, night and day difference. Hopefully. Vegas has the Bears with the 3rd worst Superbowl odds next season.

[City of Trees]

8th pick after 3 years. All I know. Got a QB last year. Had a good year this season. Finally grew into the job, night and day difference. Hopefully. Vegas has the Bears with the 3rd worst Superbowl odds next season.

IIRC the Bears were 7th when Pace was hired.



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[RedBulls23]

Imo, the failure of his first draft (2015) is why we didn't see improvement last year on the field.

He has seen to come into his own since that draft, so I think starting this year we will see how good the talent he's drafted since 2016 really is or not, and if Pace indeed turned a leaf since 2015.

[fleet]

Interesting debate on Pace:

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/2/17309896/chicago-bears-2018-nfl-draft-free-agency-whats-your-theory-on-the-new-ryan-pace-general-manager

My favorite quote:

he’s learned

[City of Trees]

My favorite quote:

He got his head coach, his quarterback, and had enough around them that he could make key moves that moved the needle big time.

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[fleet]

My favorite quote:

He got his head coach, his quarterback, and had enough around them that he could make key moves that moved the needle big time.

No disagreement.

[heir_jordan22]

The big issue is that his number 1 picks are so injured all the time. You're drafting a guy that you're expecting to change the whole position group and then, in White's case never play, and in Floyd's case miss half the games. That's not an excuse. Just a fact. I'd like to see White stay healthy just to see what he can do, and I hope he does well since I'm a bears fan.

I actually wanted Vic Beasley in the White draft.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

It's so hard to win games until you get the right QB, so that explains a lot of our past 3 seasons. But you can't argue that this roster has been completely modernized from top to bottom. Ours players are younger, faster, more athletic. Not only that, but it's filled with high quality character types of guys.

The verdict isn't out for Trubisky yet, and this team is still weak in some areas, but it was a real chance to see sustained success over the next 5-10 years.

[CjayC]

That offense looks so diverse. We just need everyone to stay healthy. The Bears over the last 2 years combined have had a historical amount of key injuries if I remember reading correctly. They gotta be due for a break by the law of averages

[Axxo]

Chart doesn't provide enough detail. Only looking at 2014 and post 2018 draft doesn't tell us what happened in btx nor do we know what the guys Pace drafted last week are going to look like.

[fleet]

First Vegas has the Bears the 3rd worst team. Now Football Outsiders has them picking 2nd in 2019. Brutal. I'm more optimistic than that. I doubt they don't move forward instead of backward. I'm thinking around 7, 8, wins. But if any of this top 10 pick stuff happens again, oof.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/3/17316146/chicago-bears-to-nfl-draft-2019-2nd-overall-in-2018-according-to-football-outsiders

[ThisGuyFawkes]

First Vegas has the Bears the 3rd worst team. Now Football Outsiders has them picking 2nd in 2019. Brutal. I'm more optimistic than that. I doubt they don't move forward instead of backward. I'm thinking around 7, 8 wins. But if any of this top 10 pick stuff happens again, oof.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/3/17316146/chicago-bears-to-nfl-draft-2019-2nd-overall-in-2018-according-to-football-outsiders

No joke. Realistically, I'd like to see the Bears finish 8-8 or 7-9 at worst. With that being said, the division is somewhat brutal this year. The Packers and Vikings could go 4-0 against us, and the Lions aren't terrible or anything. IMO, it's all about how quickly the offense can gel and get comfortable with the new system.

[transplant]

Pace had a bad first year draft and the team is paying for it and will continue to pay for it. There's no way around it. In his defense, he didn't have time to install his crew. He's done much better since.

He missed big time on Glennon and a lot is made of this, but Glennon was generally considered to be the only young FA backup who might have the potential to be a starter at the time. His player evaluation was wrong, but he signed him to the right kind of contract.

His 2018 decisions all look good. I like Nagy and give him high marks for retaining Fangio. His free agent acquisitions look great. His draft was solid.

Pace is fine by me.

[Susan]

Watch on YouTube

Good part starts at 18:46 or so.

[Axxo]

First Vegas has the Bears the 3rd worst team. Now Football Outsiders has them picking 2nd in 2019. Brutal. I'm more optimistic than that. I doubt they don't move forward instead of backward. I'm thinking around 7, 8, wins. But if any of this top 10 pick stuff happens again, oof.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/3/17316146/chicago-bears-to-nfl-draft-2019-2nd-overall-in-2018-according-to-football-outsiders

Probably based on the weakness in the 2ndary and projected lack of a pass rush attack in a division with top rated highly paid QBs.

[CjayC]

The secondary isn't weak at all IMO. The Bears rated 7th or 8th in total sacks despite being around the 26th rated team in pressure generated. That means the secondary had to have been locking teams up long enough to get a bunch of coverage sacks by Hicks and committee. The depth is meh. I think if they generated more pressure we could get more picks. Fuller is probably a B+ level corner, Prince is an above average starter when healthy, Jackson had a promising rookie year and should only improve, and Amos has been getting love from advanced analytics for the past couple of years. If you watch Amos on film the guy is really lights out, especially since moving to a more underneath role last year.

Either way if you buy into Mitch or not, common sense has to prevail because I can think of SEVERAL worse teams on paper. Its click bait that I'm not gonna bother with.

I think we had the outright most difficult schedule last year and lost a bunch of games by around 7 or 8 points. They were competitive with scheming that was so trash even the color guys were calling out the next play, and the one average receiver we had in Wright didn't see enough snaps. Just hiring Nagy is gonna make a huge difference.

The key IMO is health. We had the most win shares taken off for injuries over the last 2 years. Its just uncanny. We HAVE to be due for a break and even if we aren't it looks like we have workable depth. Its on the coaches, QB, and health because on paper that core should be able to win on just about any Sunday. I know the division has some strong QBs, but honestly I feel confident in saying they're gonna have to do other things besides death by QB in order to beat us.

[RedBulls23]

First Vegas has the Bears the 3rd worst team. Now Football Outsiders has them picking 2nd in 2019. Brutal. I'm more optimistic than that. I doubt they don't move forward instead of backward. I'm thinking around 7, 8, wins. But if any of this top 10 pick stuff happens again, oof.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/3/17316146/chicago-bears-to-nfl-draft-2019-2nd-overall-in-2018-according-to-football-outsiders

It's kind of weird to see people project the Bears to be this bad, because most people have talked about how the Bears have had one of the best off-season when considering free agency and the draft.

I guess neither really means much at this point, but interesting to see how people think we did a great job in the off-season, but then others come out with how the team will get worse.

Really to me, the only way this happens is if Mitchell is bad Jay and bad Glennon on steroids. If that happens, Pace is likely gone.

[RedBulls23]

First Vegas has the Bears the 3rd worst team. Now Football Outsiders has them picking 2nd in 2019. Brutal. I'm more optimistic than that. I doubt they don't move forward instead of backward. I'm thinking around 7, 8 wins. But if any of this top 10 pick stuff happens again, oof.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/3/17316146/chicago-bears-to-nfl-draft-2019-2nd-overall-in-2018-according-to-football-outsiders

No joke. Realistically, I'd like to see the Bears finish 8-8 or 7-9 at worst. With that being said, the division is somewhat brutal this year. The Packers and Vikings could go 4-0 against us, and the Lions aren't terrible or anything. IMO, it's all about how quickly the offense can gel and get comfortable with the new system.

I do think how the wins come about are important too. Like if they were to start the season 7-4, and then go out and lose out, I don't think many people would be too happy with that result (obviously depending on injury to the most important player, which might/will be Mitchell).

Overall, I think it would be nice to see some consistency and a trend curve that goes up as the season goes along.