2024 NFL Draft - five picks in the first three rounds (seven in four! [probably])

[Ron Swanson]

I get the LSU WR Factory angle, but anyone having Nabers over MHJ continues to be some bat **** stuff to me. And I really, really like Nabers....

[MVP2110]

A really good piece by Arif Hasan showing which draft analysts did the best and worst from 2016-2021

https://www.wideleft.football/p/grading-the-nfl-draft-big-boards?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

[ReasonablySober]

Having Penix above Maye & McCarthy is pretty bold

One thing you have to know about Farrar is he's a bit of a U-Dub homer. So every year he's typically more in on Washington players than the consensus.

That said, Penix was better than Maye and McCarthy last year. He threw the ball better than almost anyone. The two biggest questions with Penix were athleticism and injury history, and Penix probably shocked a lot of people with his athletic testing this spring.

I won't necessarily disagree thag Penix was better last year but it's still a bold take to have McCarthy at QB6 and Maye at QB4. Penix and Bo Nix should have been better since they are several years older than Maye & McCarthy. Maybe I'm mistaken a bit but it seems Farrar judges more by what a player did as opposed to what they might develop into.

Also having Alt all the way down at 19 sticks out

I mean, think about it this way: Penix already does the things you're hoping Maye and McCarthy do eventually. Once he showed that he was a really awesome athlete the only question left was health.

As for Alt, I got nothing there.

[MVP2110]

One thing you have to know about Farrar is he's a bit of a U-Dub homer. So every year he's typically more in on Washington players than the consensus.

That said, Penix was better than Maye and McCarthy last year. He threw the ball better than almost anyone. The two biggest questions with Penix were athleticism and injury history, and Penix probably shocked a lot of people with his athletic testing this spring.

I won't necessarily disagree thag Penix was better last year but it's still a bold take to have McCarthy at QB6 and Maye at QB4. Penix and Bo Nix should have been better since they are several years older than Maye & McCarthy. Maybe I'm mistaken a bit but it seems Farrar judges more by what a player did as opposed to what they might develop into.

Also having Alt all the way down at 19 sticks out

I mean, think about it this way: Penix already does the things you're hoping Maye and McCarthy do eventually. Once he showed that he was a really awesome athlete the only question left was health.

As for Alt, I got nothing there.

If Maye & McCarthy only develop to the point where Penix & Nix are now I think that would be a massive disappointment and both would be labeled as busts.

[MVP2110]

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[Frank Nova]

Man, I love me some Xavier Worthy. Such a dynamic prospect he’s gonna be like Jordan Addison on steroids.

[MVP2110]

Who do people think will be a bust in this years class? Every class has a handful of guys who amounted to very little in their career so I'm curious who you all think that will be this year

[ReasonablySober]

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Here's some data on deep catches:

Worthy
Deep-L: 3/9 33%
Deem-C: 2/5 40%
Deep-R: 1/9 11.1%

Mitchell:
Deep-L: 5/9 55.6%
Deem-C: 3/11 27.3%
Deep-R: 0/2 0.0%

Burton:
Deep-L: 1/6 16.7%
Deem-C: 3/5 60%
Deep-R: 7/10 70%

Nabers:
Deep-L: 2/4 50%
Deem-C: 7/10 70%
Deep-R: 10/15 66.7%

Odunze:
Deep-L: 5/12 41.7%
Deem-C: 8/13 61.5
Deep-R: 10/24 41.7%

Thomas Jr:
Deep-L: 7/8 87.5%
Deem-C: 3/7 42.9%
Deep-R: 5/7 71.4%

Harrison Jr.:
Deep-L: 3/5 60.0%
Deem-C: 4/5 80%
Deep-R: 8/14 57.1%

Legette:
Deep-L: 4/6 66.7%
Deem-C: 6/12 50%
Deep-R: 3/6 50%

Coleman:
Deep-L: 2/6 33.3%
Deem-C: 3/11 27.3%
Deep-R: 3/7 42.9 %

Franklin:
Deep-L: 11/6 54.5%
Deem-C: 6/7 85.7%
Deep-R: 2/6 33.3

R. Wilson:
Deep-L: 3/7 42.9
Deem-C: 6/7 85.7%
Deep-R: 2/3 66.7%

Pearsall:
Deep-L: 2/5 40.0%
Deem-C: 6/9 66.7%
Deep-R: 3/6 50%

Polk:
Deep-L: 4/9 44.4%
Deem-C: 3/5 60%
Deep-R: 4/8 50%

Walker:
Deep-L: 1/2 50%
Deem-C: 5/8 62.5%
Deep-R: 4/13 30.8%

McConkey:
Deep-L: 0/1 0%%
Deem-C: 2/4 50%
Deep-R: 1/1 100%

Totals

Odunze: 23/49 46.9%
Nabers: 19/29 65.5%
Harrison Jr: 15/24 62.5%
Franklin: 14/24 58.3%
Legette: 13/24 54.2
Coleman: 8/24 33.3%
Walker: 10/23: 43.5
Worthy: 6/23 26.1%
Polk: 11/22 50%
Mitchell: 8/22 36.4%
Thomas Jr: 15/22 68.2%
Burton: 11/21 52.4%
Pearsall: 11/20 55.0%
Wilson: 11/17 64.7%
McConkey: 3/6 50%

The Texas guys are fast as hell but it didn't do much good throwing them the ball.

[M-C-G]

I get the LSU WR Factory angle, but anyone having Nabers over MHJ continues to be some bat **** stuff to me. And I really, really like Nabers....

I think any of the top 3 of these guys would typically be your #1 WR hands down in most drafts.

That said, it isn't hard for me to see someone fall in love with the run after catch of Nabers. Not to mention unlike Harrison he is still fairly unrefined with route running (so he has a LOT of room to improve) and is the youngest of all three guys (by a year I think). So not that hard for me to see someone falling in love with Nabers as the next Ceedee Lamb (my comp for him).

I think all three are incredible, it will come down to what a team is looking for, but I'd say Nabers upside is right there with Jamarr Chase.

[Ron Swanson]

I think you pretty much have to be convinced that Nabers is some Justin Jefferson/OBJ hybrid, and even then, it could still be the wrong pick because I think Harrison Jr's floor is basically a Julio Jones guy.

[LUKE23]

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Here's some data on deep catches:

Worthy
Deep-L: 3/9 33%
Deem-C: 2/5 40%
Deep-R: 1/9 11.1%

Mitchell:
Deep-L: 5/9 55.6%
Deem-C: 3/11 27.3%
Deep-R: 0/2 0.0%

Burton:
Deep-L: 1/6 16.7%
Deem-C: 3/5 60%
Deep-R: 7/10 70%

Nabers:
Deep-L: 2/4 50%
Deem-C: 7/10 70%
Deep-R: 10/15 66.7%

Odunze:
Deep-L: 5/12 41.7%
Deem-C: 8/13 61.5
Deep-R: 10/24 41.7%

Thomas Jr:
Deep-L: 7/8 87.5%
Deem-C: 3/7 42.9%
Deep-R: 5/7 71.4%

Harrison Jr.:
Deep-L: 3/5 60.0%
Deem-C: 4/5 80%
Deep-R: 8/14 57.1%

Legette:
Deep-L: 4/6 66.7%
Deem-C: 6/12 50%
Deep-R: 3/6 50%

Coleman:
Deep-L: 2/6 33.3%
Deem-C: 3/11 27.3%
Deep-R: 3/7 42.9 %

Franklin:
Deep-L: 11/6 54.5%
Deem-C: 6/7 85.7%
Deep-R: 2/6 33.3

R. Wilson:
Deep-L: 3/7 42.9
Deem-C: 6/7 85.7%
Deep-R: 2/3 66.7%

Pearsall:
Deep-L: 2/5 40.0%
Deem-C: 6/9 66.7%
Deep-R: 3/6 50%

Polk:
Deep-L: 4/9 44.4%
Deem-C: 3/5 60%
Deep-R: 4/8 50%

Walker:
Deep-L: 1/2 50%
Deem-C: 5/8 62.5%
Deep-R: 4/13 30.8%

McConkey:
Deep-L: 0/1 0%%
Deem-C: 2/4 50%
Deep-R: 1/1 100%

Totals

Odunze: 23/49 46.9%
Nabers: 19/29 65.5%
Harrison Jr: 15/24 62.5%
Franklin: 14/24 58.3%
Legette: 13/24 54.2
Coleman: 8/24 33.3%
Walker: 10/23: 43.5
Worthy: 6/23 26.1%
Polk: 11/22 50%
Mitchell: 8/22 36.4%
Thomas Jr: 15/22 68.2%
Burton: 11/21 52.4%
Pearsall: 11/20 55.0%
Wilson: 11/17 64.7%
McConkey: 3/6 50%

The Texas guys are fast as hell but it didn't do much good throwing them the ball.

Two comments/questions on these stats:

1. Are these stats only on catchable balls, or all throws?
2. Either way, pretty small sample sizes in all the cases.

[ReasonablySober]

1. Are these stats only on catchable balls, or all throws?
2. Either way, pretty small sample sizes in all the cases.

All targets.

[Profound23]

I think you pretty much have to be convinced that Nabers is some Justin Jefferson/OBJ hybrid, and even then, it could still be the wrong pick because I think Harrison Jr's floor is basically a Julio Jones guy.

I like MHJ way more than Nabers, but one thing that worries me about MHJ is he is always hurt. I could see how teams are trying to sell themselves on some of the other WRs instead.

I am still taking MHJ #1 overall if I don't need a QB.

[Frank Nova]

I’m much more interested in a drop rate % over a deep ball conversion rate %. Too many variables there, inaccurate throws and double coverage to name 2 important 1s.

No real reason to even run Worthy deep, 3.6yds of separation 12yds down the field? He’s wide open right in front of you lol, simple pitch and catch to a 4.2 blazer should be all day everyday.

[RRyder823]

Who do people think will be a bust in this years class? Every class has a handful of guys who amounted to very little in their career so I'm curious who you all think that will be this year

Caleb is going to the Bears so.............

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[M-C-G]

I think you pretty much have to be convinced that Nabers is some Justin Jefferson/OBJ hybrid, and even then, it could still be the wrong pick because I think Harrison Jr's floor is basically a Julio Jones guy.

I think if Nabers is 90% of Lamb or Chase, which I think it is pretty easy to justify him anywhere in the draft. But I have to stress, I absolutely love all 3 of these guys. I think the conversation is turning into 'there is no way you can like Diet Coke more than Coke Zero, and don't get me started on those that still drink Diet Pepsi....'

[ReasonablySober]

I don't really have much of a problem like Nabers (or Odunze for that matter) more than MHJr. I think it's weird, but different strokes, ya know.

It's when you justify it by knocking on MHJr's speed that I know you're telling on yourself.

[Frank Nova]

Anyone that says MHj isn’t the best overall player in this entire class is just trying to Skip Bayless themselves into an argument for the sake of having a different opinion. It’s silly.

[ReasonablySober]

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[M-C-G]

I don't really have much of a problem like Nabers (or Odunze for that matter) more than MHJr. I think it's weird, but different strokes, ya know.

It's when you justify it by knocking on MHJr's speed that I know you're telling on yourself.

Fairly certain MHJ clocked a 22 mph play this year. So I’d lean that he would have run close to Trey Bensons 4.39 time.


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