Jets Lead Up

[LUKE23]

The defense has performed better than the offense statistically, but it should, it has a **** of high draft capital and free agent money invested in it, and that unit had minimal turnover YoY. They have also played some **** offenses to start the season.

The offensive problem is two-fold to me. One - they are massively lacking explosive playmakers outside of Aaron Jones and two rookie WR. Four of their WR are Cobb, Lazard, Watkins, and Amari Rodgers. Their TE's can't run for ****. Issue two is there is an obvious playcalling dynamic issue between MLF and Rodgers. That needs to get ironed out right now.

But as far as overall blame so far this season, I'm blaming the D more. They should be dominant and they haven't been. I expected a slow start offensively. Needs to get figured out this week and improve quite a bit by the time they go to Buffalo, or they may lose by 40.

[ReasonablySober]

The defense has performed better than the offense statistically, but it should, it has a **** of high draft capital and free agent money invested in it, and that unit had minimal turnover YoY. They have also played some **** offenses to start the season.

The offensive problem is two-fold to me. One - they are massively lacking explosive playmakers outside of Aaron Jones and two rookie WR. Four of their WR are Cobb, Lazard, Watkins, and Amari Rodgers. Their TE's can't run for ****. Issue two is there is an obvious playcalling dynamic issue between MLF and Rodgers. That needs to get ironed out right now.

But as far as overall blame so far this season, I'm blaming the D more. They should be dominant and they haven't been. I expected a slow start offensively. Needs to get figured out this week and improve quite a bit by the time they go to Buffalo, or they may lose by 40.

The defense is easily the story of the season, and I don't see a fix until this offseason. They could do what the Panthers just did and fire the DC, but I'm not sure that helps this season at all.

[thomchatt3rton]

I’m more concerned about the offense than the defense.

There’s room for improvement with the defense and you can easily imagine them being better, more consistent, etc.

But how much can this offense improve? Oline will probably get better and hopefully they figure out some viable identity, but there’s a ceiling there.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[JayMKE]

The issues on offense are pretty straight forward and expected considering the personnel decisions and injuries frustrating as they may be with an aging HOF QB, its the defense that so much money and draft stock invested in it that is truly confounding.

[Treebeard]

There's some chicken or the egg business with the defense vs offense breakdowns. If the Offense can't consistently move the ball, eating up the clock, and hopefully scoring, especially in the second half; then the Defense gets to live on the field and eventually wear down, as we saw Sunday. Vice-versa, if the Defense can't consistently stop second or third tier players, the Pack is screwed.

[XtremeDunkz]

This about to be the Jets coming out party.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[LUKE23]

DVOA currently has the offense 8th and the defense 23rd. On offense they are ranked 3rd rushing and 13th passing, on defense they are 30th against the rush and 11th against the pass.

[MickeyDavis]

Read on Twitter

[LUKE23]

Yep, that's a legit point. On top of it, him and the coach don't appear to be on the same page with run/pass ratio and playcalling. Additionally, the team is severely lacking in explosve athletes at WR/TE, something we pretty much knew coming into the season. So to me, the offense has some Rodgers issues, some coaching issues, and some personnel issues.

The defense I put almost 100% on coaching and the refusal to abandon the zone with personnel that is made for man.

[Kerb Hohl]

Vegas spreads are all about trying to get equal action on both teams not necessarily that they think this team is X points better than that team.

This is somewhat true but if you look at any spreads in any sport, it comes down to that sport's ratings model, many of which are similar to something available online. This is basically the same thing Vegas uses.

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

23-16 + 3 = 10, give the Jets some extra credit for Wilson.

This one has it at 9-9.5

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/

If you look at NCAAF, the spread is just the S&P+ or Sagarin ratings spit out. In college hoops it's exactly KenPom.

Always kinda my nerdy thing, unless there's an injury or some compelling reason, it's just the efficiency ratings as the spread. That almost always gets Vegas 50/50 success and also gets people betting, because they'll say, "huuuuhhhhh? I saw the Packers suck last week!" And they might be right, because these numbers still have some preseason ratings built in.

[MickeyDavis]

Vegas spreads are all about trying to get equal action on both teams not necessarily that they think this team is X points better than that team.

This is somewhat true but if you look at any spreads in any sport, it comes down to that sport's ratings model, many of which are similar to something available online. This is basically the same thing Vegas uses.

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

23-16 + 3 = 10, give the Jets some extra credit for Wilson.

This one has it at 9-9.5

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/

If you look at NCAAF, the spread is just the S&P+ or Sagarin ratings spit out. In college hoops it's exactly KenPom.

Always kinda my nerdy thing, unless there's an injury or some compelling reason, it's just the efficiency ratings as the spread. That almost always gets Vegas 50/50 success and also gets people betting, because they'll say, "huuuuhhhhh? I saw the Packers suck last week!" And they might be right, because these numbers still have some preseason ratings built in.

Yes that's true, power ratings are used. Lines are adjusted as the action comes in to try to even it out. Here is an article written in August by Chris Andrews, the sports book manager at South Point in Vegas

For the past two years, the South Point was the first to open numbers. We take $10,000 a rattle, so it’s no small thing. The biggest and sharpest players in town are lined up against us.

The way we come up with the opening numbers is as follows. Vinny Magliulo, Richie Baccellieri, and I are in my office at the sports book. We all have our power ratings and as soon as the matchups are announced, we come up with our lines.

We’re all not going to look at teams the exact same way, which is good. We keep different ratings, so we all have different numbers. That’s the only way to do it. I need various opinions, because it’s the three of us against the world. We’ve done well over the years. If it were just me, the world would be a huge favorite.

I look at all three sets and make the final decision on how we’ll open. From there, my crew handles the bookmaking. Then I jump in and see what kind of action we’ve gotten and make any necessary adjustments.

The actual process of making the numbers isn’t that hard. You simply subtract the underdog’s power rating from the favorite’s and, voila, there’s the number. If team A has a rating of 90 and they’re playing team B with a rating of 80 rating, team A will be a 10-point favorite. If team A is 76 and team B is 73, team A is a 3-point favorite. It’s nothing more than that.

Of course, you better have the right power rating to begin with or your number is going to be way off. And you’ll get your ass kicked. The hard part is making the power ratings.

Everyone has their own methodology for power ratings. I’m sure everyone keeps their own system proprietary. I know I do. I use a math-based methodology, but plenty of subjectivity goes into my final power rating.

Every sport is a little different. In baseball, we put up an overnight line. We're first, so we have to get it up pretty quick. From there, we start booking bets right away at smaller limits and adjust quickly. It's the same thing with regular-season basketball. Come playoffs, we get a little more scientific. We use power ratings in basketball, but make some slight adjustments depending on how we think bets are going to come in.

Football is totally power ratings-based. It's hard to come up with a single algorithm for football, because of outside factors like turnovers, injuries, weather, and some dumb luck that can really skew a score. Nonetheless, some people can do it, but it has to be very sophisticated programming. We use our own numbers, but in this day and age, the number gets bet into quickly and they wind up equalized. But that’s how they start.

[Kerb Hohl]

Right, not to say the lines don’t move based on action, but the opening line is almost always just the efficiency ratings +/- injury/rest adjustments.

If they didn’t do this, everyone with a computer and could write some code would rob Vegas blind.

[MickeyDavis]

Read on Twitter

[raysbookclub]

Read on Twitter

The clock on Kylin Hill's return seems like it might coincide with the clock on Amari Rodgers' departure.

[crkone]

Read on Twitter

[PintSizedBox10]

Read on Twitter

7 PBU's so far from the elite secondary

[Treebeard]

Read on Twitter

7 PBU's so far from the elite secondary

Eeeeeesh. Probably not an especially good week for Rogers to have a thumb injury. Of course, what game week would be....

[M-C-G]

Read on Twitter

7 PBU's so far from the elite secondary

Eeeeeesh. Probably not an especially good week for Rogers to have a thumb injury. Of course, what game week would be....

Might force us to stick with the run game for four quarters. Might be a bit of a silver lining


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PintSizedBox10]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/10/12/23399992/green-bay-packers-slow-start-offense-defense-aaron-rodgers

I thought this was an interesting read.