2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

Post #1 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Sep 4, 2022 7:58 pm

Might as well get this one going.

Will Anderson is probably going to go #1 overall, but yesterday Anthony Richardson looked like a guy who could challenge him.

Treebeard · Post #2 » by **Treebeard** » Mon Sep 5, 2022 7:09 pm

Sept 5, 2022 - before the first Regular Season game: given their wifty cap situation going into the 2023 season, the Pack trades it's 2023 first rounder for a later 2023 and an earlier 2024 pick.

M-C-G · Post #3 » by **M-C-G** » Mon Sep 5, 2022 7:48 pm

This draft seems loaded with RB and WR. Makes me wonder if we are going WR in the first given so many guys not under contract next year

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TroyD92 · Post #4 » by **TroyD92** » Fri Sep 9, 2022 9:51 pm

M-C-G wrote:This draft seems loaded with RB and WR. Makes me wonder if we are going WR in the first given so many guys not under contract next year

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Think they have to be looking safety imo. I doubt Savage and Amos will both be back.

TroyD92 · Post #5 » by **TroyD92** » Fri Sep 9, 2022 9:55 pm

Actually Edge, Safety, Receiver, and RB all seem possible to me.

Profound23 · Post #6 » by **Profound23** » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:53 pm

We will need another edge rusher if possible. Next year I fear it will be Gary and nobody else.

Post #7 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sat Sep 17, 2022 5:12 pm

It's crazy that Bowers has to come back for another season after this one. He would have been a first rounder after his freshman year.

Mags FTW · Post #8 » by **Mags FTW** » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:43 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Will Anderson is probably going to go #1 overall, but yesterday Anthony Richardson looked like a guy who could challenge him.

Is this based off potential, because his numbers are horrible.

Post #9 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:16 pm

Mags FTW wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:Will Anderson is probably going to go #1 overall, but yesterday Anthony Richardson looked like a guy who could challenge him.

Is this based off potential, because his numbers are horrible.

Yea, he's **** the bed the last two weeks. Against Utah he looked like Cam Newton.

TroyD92 · Post #10 » by **TroyD92** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:15 pm

Who are the top safety prospects? I'd imagine the Packers are going to look to move on from Savage after this year.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #11 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:06 pm

TroyD92 wrote:Who are the top safety prospects? I'd imagine the Packers are going to look to move on from Savage after this year.

Yeah I think they might end up with two new safeties next season. Amos appears to be in the decline and could be a cap casualty.

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Post #12 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:20 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:It's crazy that Bowers has to come back for another season after this one. He would have been a first rounder after his freshman year.

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Post #13 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:51 pm

Jordan Addison

Cedric Tillman

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Kayshon Boutte

and my favorite right now, Quentin Johnston

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Post #14 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 3:07 pm

I wish this was a better year to have a top ten pick. Quentin Johnson is the only WR with #1 WR kind of traits, but I don't know how much you trust it. Smith-Njigba looked like a potential #1 guy but he's been hurt all season. Cedric Tillman is a bigger dude but has also been hurt.

Michael Mayer and Bijan Robinson are productive guys who play positions you probably shouldn't invest high picks in. If we're bad again in 2023, which seems likely, that draft will have Brock Bowers in it and he's an actual game-changing weapon at the TE spot. If and when they actually address TE in the spring, Darnell Washington might be my pick. Dude is enormous, has great hands, and blocks his ass off. He's very much a young Mercedes Lewis.

Hate to say it but this might be another year of taking defense high, or going with one of the OL.

Treebeard · Post #15 » by **Treebeard** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 3:33 pm

Offensive Linemen - Maybe not first round, but more than one early OL pick?

Depending on Rogers 2023 plan (and cap issues)...

What to do about Bahk and Jenkins for 2023 and beyond? If Jenkins returns to form by end of this season, what position? If he's back to form, he may chase a payroll somewhere else. If he's still inconsistently hitting on five cylinders, thats a different decision tree. If Rogers retires, or gets traded, can they afford to keep Bahk?

The other OL guys may/may not develop as needed for 2023 and beyond. Myers, very probably. Nijman, Runyan, Tom maybe

Treebeard · Post #16 » by **Treebeard** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 3:47 pm

Rube question: IF Rogers were to retire/be traded (depending on timing), what are the financial implications for the 2023 draft? If there's that big dead cap hit, does it make more sense to load up with earlier picks, or trade back, or out of the early rounds for 2023 and accept that 2023 is a lost cause across the board?

Post #17 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:02 pm

Treebeard wrote:Rube question: IF Rogers were to retire/be traded (depending on timing), what are the financial implications for the 2023 draft? If there's that big dead cap hit, does it make more sense to load up with earlier picks, or trade back, or out of the early rounds for 2023 and accept that 2023 is a lost cause across the board?

If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. The team taking on his salary would be on the hook for a $15.79 million cap hit in 2023, with much larger charges down the line.

It's hard for me to envision him being traded before the draft, unless the Packers somehow go scorched Earth and clear the books somehow in an effort to take as much of a cap hit as possible next season and be (relatively) free and clear in 2024.

LUKE23 · Post #18 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:28 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. The team taking on his salary would be on the hook for a $15.79 million cap hit in 2023, with much larger charges down the line.

It's hard for me to envision him being traded before the draft, unless the Packers somehow go scorched Earth and clear the books somehow in an effort to take as much of a cap hit as possible next season and be (relatively) free and clear in 2024.

What are his 2023/2024 cap hits if he retires after the 2022 season?

Post #19 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:30 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. The team taking on his salary would be on the hook for a $15.79 million cap hit in 2023, with much larger charges down the line.

It's hard for me to envision him being traded before the draft, unless the Packers somehow go scorched Earth and clear the books somehow in an effort to take as much of a cap hit as possible next season and be (relatively) free and clear in 2024.

What are his 2023/2024 cap hits if he retires after the 2022 season?

From Over the Cap:

If Rodgers were to walk away he would forfeit all his rights to the $59.465 million in guaranteed salary for next year. In order to best accommodate the hit on the salary cap my assumption would be that the Packers and Rodgers would sign a new contract where the option bonus was eliminated and just a $1.165 salary remained. That would reduce Rodgers salary cap charge to $16,998,750 and they would carry him on the roster as a procedural move until June 2nd. At that point they would put him on the retired list. The salary cap charge in that case would be $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024.

If they did not do that and processed the retirement right away they would take a salary cap hit of $40,313,570 in 2023 but none in 2024. The Packers have no cap space next year so it would seem more likely that they take the first approach.

It's essentially the same if he's traded. One way or another, around $40 million has to be accounted for in the next two seasons.

Treebeard · Post #20 » by **Treebeard** » Thu Nov 3, 2022 4:36 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Treebeard wrote:Rube question: IF Rogers were to retire/be traded (depending on timing), what are the financial implications for the 2023 draft? If there's that big dead cap hit, does it make more sense to load up with earlier picks, or trade back, or out of the early rounds for 2023 and accept that 2023 is a lost cause across the board?

If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. The team taking on his salary would be on the hook for a $15.79 million cap hit in 2023, with much larger charges down the line.

It's hard for me to envision him being traded before the draft, unless the Packers somehow go scorched Earth and clear the books somehow in an effort to take as much of a cap hit as possible next season and be (relatively) free and clear in 2024.

I realize there's a huge potential gap in cap problem, but what draft route would make more sense, if they had the deal in place to trade Rogers after June 1? Load up, or trade back or out of the early rounds.

Similar question if Rogers says "**** it - I'm done" and takes the official retirement protocols?