2024 NFL Draft - five picks in the first three rounds (seven in four! [probably])

[ReasonablySober]

I still wouldn't hate it if we just said "**** it" and took Brian Thomas Jr. if he falls to 25.

He's better than Marvin Harrison Jr! according to Chris Simms.

[MVP2110]

So I'm finally ready to share my full draft rankings. With two weeks to go these may still adjust slightly but for the most part these should be fairly locked in.

A little background on my process, I start with 4 basic categories(age, RAS score, positional value, & consensus board ranking) to give every prospect an initial score. I have over 200 prospects with an initial score given and then I'll dive deeper into specific prospects and watch anywhere from a half season to a full season of a prospects tape and will bump or lower a players score based on what I see(I did this for about 60-75 guys). I also look at what in previous drafts has correlated to success or failure for prospects(ex. High sack rate is a bad omen for QBs, a really good short shuttle is predictive for OL prospects, etc.). I will also ding players occasionally for injuries or off field issues(ex. Laiatu Latu & Payton Wilson have injury concerns I dinged them for). With that said here is my ranking of the 232 prospects I have looked into

Rank Pos. Player
1st Round
1 QB Caleb Williams
2 WR Marvin Harrison Jr
3 QB Drake Maye
4 WR Malik Nabers
5 OT Joe Alt
6 QB JJ McCarthy
7 CB/S Cooper DeJean
8 WR Rome Odunze
9 EDGE Dallas Turner
10 OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
11 OT Amarius Mims
12 OT Taliese Fuaga
13 EDGE Demeioun "Chop" Robinson
14 IOL Graham Barton
15 WR Adonai Mitchell
16 TE Brock Bowers
17 QB Jayden Daniels
18 OT JC Latham
19 CB Terrion Arnold
20 CB Quinyon Mitchell
21 WR Brian Thomas Jr
22 CB Nate Wiggins
23 OT Tyler Guyton
24 QB Michael Penix Jr
25 OT Kingsley Suamataia
26 DL Byron Murphy
27 WR Troy Franklin
28 DL Michael Hall Jr
29 DL Jer'Zhan Newton
30 EDGE Jared Verse
31 OT Troy Fautanu
32 CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

2nd Round
33 OT Jordan Morgan
34 LB Edgerrin Cooper
35 EDGE Jonah Elliss
36 IOL Tanor Bortolini
37 IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson
38 QB Bo Nix
39 WR Xavier Worthy
40 S Javon Bullard
41 EDGE/DL Marhsawn Kneeland
42 OT Patrick Paul
43 CB Max Melton
44 RB Jaylen Wright
45 WR Ladd McConkey
46 EDGE Laiatu Latu
47 WR Ricky Pearsall
48 EDGE Chris Braswell
49 WR Xavier Legette
50 DL Ruke Orhorhoro
51 EDGE Adisa Isaac
52 WR Ja'Lynn Polk
53 OT Blake Fisher
54 S Cole Bishop
55 TE Theo Johnson
56 TE Ben Sinnott
57 WR Jermaine Burton
58 LB Junior Colson
59 DL Kris Jenkins
60 S Jaden Hicks
61 RB Trey Benson
62 WR Javon Baker
63 OT Roger Rosengarten
64 LB Trevin Wallace

3rd Round
65 QB Michael Pratt
66 IOL Mason McCormick
67 IOL Dylan McMahon
68 WR Keon Coleman
69 DL Braden Fiske
70 IOL Cooper Beebe
71 WR Devontez Walker
72 DL Mekhi Wingo
73 OT Kiran Amegadjie
74 WR Roman Wilson
75 EDGE/DL Darius Robinson
76 CB Kamari Lassiter
77 WR Jalen McMillan
78 DL Maason Smith
79 CB Andru Phillips
80 S Malik Mustapha
81 CB Jarrian Jones
82 EDGE Cedric Johnson
83 RB Jonathon Brooks
84 WR Malachi Corley
85 EDGE Bralen Trice
86 IOL Christian Haynes
87 IOL Dominick Puni
88 WR Malik Washington
89 EDGE Gabriel Murphy
90 WR Johnny Wilson
91 RB Will Shipley
92 IOL Beaux Limmer
93 RB Braelon Allen
94 CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
95 IOL Zach Frazier
96 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders
97 EDGE/DL Brandon Dorlus
98 EDGE Austin Booker
99 CB/S Renardo Green
100 LB Cedric Gray

4th Round
101 WR Brenden Rice
102 QB Kedon Slovis
103 WR Luke McCaffery
104 LB Payton Wilson
105 CB TJ Tampa
106 CB Mike Sainristil
107 CB Cam Hart
108 CB Kalen King
109 QB Joe Milton
110 TE Jaheim Bell
111 S Calen Bullock
112 IOL Christian Mahogany
113 OT Matt Goncalves
114 TE AJ Barner
115 EDGE Jalyx Hunt
116 TE Tip Reiman
117 RB Blake Corum
118 S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
119 CB Khyree Jackson
120 RB Audric Estime
121 EDGE Mohamed Kamara
122 CB Elijah Jones
123 TE Jared Wiley
124 LB Curtis Jacobs
125 DL Gabe Hall
126 CB Decamerion Richardson
127 LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
128 IOL Zak Zinter
129 QB Jordan Travis
130 IOL Sedrick Van Pran
131 DL Leonard Taylor
132 RB MarShawn Lloyd
133 CB Caelen Carson
134 EDGE Javon Solomon

5th Round
135 LB Jaylan Ford
136 CB Nehemiah Pritchett
137 LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
138 OT Walter Rouse
139 EDGE Brennan Jackson
140 IOL Brandon Coleman
141 WR Ryan Flournoy
142 OT Frank Crum
143 WR Jalen Coker
144 TE Cade Stover
145 LB Tommy Eichenberg
146 IOL Isaiah Adams
147 RB Isaac Guerendo
148 S Sione Vaki
149 WR Ainias Smith
150 CB Chau Smith-Wade
151 S Dominique Hampton
152 DL Jordan Jefferson
153 IOL Matt Lee
154 EDGE Eric Watts
155 IOL Trevor Keegan
156 TE Devin Culp
157 WR Anthony Gould
158 IOL Brady Latham
159 CB DJ James
160 QB Spencer Rattler
161 CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
162 DL DeWayne Carter
163 S Tykee Smith
164 EDGE Nelson Ceaser
165 S Kitan Oladapo
166 IOL Layden Robinson
167 OT Caedan Wallace
168 DL Jaden Crumedy
169 RB Isaiah Davis
170 S Evan Williams
171 IOL Jarrett Kingston
172 DL T'Vondre Sweat
173 CB Kris Abrams-Draine
174 CB Josh Newton
175 CB/S Jaylin Simpson
176 IOL Javion Cohen

6th Round
177 IOL Delmar Glaze
178 LB Ty'Ron Hopper
179 RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
180 EDGE Myles Cole
181 EDGE Braiden McGregor
182 EDGE Xavier Thomas
183 RB Kimani Vidal
184 OT Garret Greenfield
185 IOL Kingsley Eguakun
186 CB Johnny Dixon
187 S Tyler Nubin
188 DL Tyler Davis
189 S/LB James Williams
190 LB Tyrice Knight
191 IOL Sataoa Laumea
192 EDGE Zion Tupuola-Fetui
193 S Kamren Kinchens
194 DL Justin Eboigbe
195 OT Javon Foster
196 WR Jamari Thrash
197 WR Jacob Cowing
198 S Beau Brade
199 CB Dwight McGlothern
200 TE Erick All
201 LB Marist Luifau
202 RB Dylan Laube
203 IOL Drake Nugent
204 CB/S Marcellas Dial
205 OT Christian Jones
206 TE Tanner McLachlan
207 RB Jase McClellan
208 DL McKinnley Jackson
209 WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
210 RB Dillon Johnson
211 DL Keith Randolph Jr
212 DL Marcus Harris
213 IOL Hunter Nourzad
214 LB JD Bertrand
215 RB Bucky Irving
216 TE Dallin Holker
217 LB Nathaniel Watson
218 S Josh Proctor
219 QB Sam Hartman
220 RB Rasheen Ali

7th Round or UDFA
221 WR Jordan Whittington
222 RB Ray Davis
223 OT Julian Pearl
224 DL Khristian Boyd
225 TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
226 CB Ro Torrence
227 RB Daijun Edwards
228 IOL Andrew Raym
229 RB Frank Gore Jr.
230 RB Jawhar Jordan
231 RB Cody Schrader
232 WR Drake Stoops

Some guys that I am much higher on than the consensus draft board
Tanor Bortolini
JJ McCarthy
Cooper DeJean
Dylan McMahon
Michael Hall Jr
Kedon Slovis
Brady Latham
Mason McCormick
Jonah Elliss
Cedric Johnson
Kingsley Suamataia
Michael Pratt
Trevin Wallace
Graham Barton
Ben Sinnott
Chop Robinson

Guys that I am much lower on than the consensus draft board
Jayden Daniels
Kris Abrams-Draine
Bucky Irving
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Ray Davis
Kamari Lassiter
Zach Frazier
Darius Robinson
Kamren Kinchens
Payton Wilson
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Jared Verse
Laiatu Latu
T'Vondre Sweat
Tyler Nubin

[Turk Nowitzki]

The one that caught by eye the most in your list is seeing Tyler Nubin among your 6th round grades. Compared to the relative consensus that has to be the biggest gap I noticed so I'm wondering what you saw there?

[LittleRooster]

Better than lil Cleo’s list (if that was their name)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MVP2110]

The one that caught by eye the most in your list is seeing Tyler Nubin among your 6th round grades. Compared to the relative consensus that has to be the biggest gap I noticed so I'm wondering what you saw there?

Nubin & Kinchens both fell way down on my rankings due to their testing. I don't believe all players who test well succeed but I think really bad testing can essentially eliminate players from being successful. The one thing I'll give Nubin is he was coming off an injury so the testing numbers may be skewed a bit but as we saw with DeJean he still should have tested better overall. If I took his testing numbers out of my model he would jump up to #106 and have a 4th round grade fwiw

[Profound23]

So I'm finally ready to share my full draft rankings. With two weeks to go these may still adjust slightly but for the most part these should be fairly locked in.

A little background on my process, I start with 4 basic categories(age, RAS score, positional value, & consensus board ranking) to give every prospect an initial score. I have over 200 prospects with an initial score given and then I'll dive deeper into specific prospects and watch anywhere from a half season to a full season of a prospects tape and will bump or lower a players score based on what I see(I did this for about 60-75 guys). I also look at what in previous drafts has correlated to success or failure for prospects(ex. High sack rate is a bad omen for QBs, a really good short shuttle is predictive for OL prospects, etc.). I will also ding players occasionally for injuries or off field issues(ex. Laiatu Latu & Payton Wilson have injury concerns I dinged them for). With that said here is my ranking of the 232 prospects I have looked into

If the draft really fell something similar to that I am doubling up with Edge Rushers with my first two picks.

Give me Verse and Latu

Verse, Latu, LVN, Gary, Smith we are definitely set for this year and there are no concerns with losing Smith in the 2025 offseason.

[jakecronus8]

ESPN's mock sim and predictor are really interesting as they give % chance that said player will be available at that pick and % they will be available after.

Not sure all the metrics/ai used to come up with the data but when I picked Dejean at 25 it has his % chance of being available at 25 as 69% and being availabe after 25 at 7%.

Long story short, it seems someone or many believe GB really loves Dejean. Makes sense all things considered but I'd think the fact that they haven't had an official visit with him would skew the numbers.

Regardless, I really enjoy seeing the different evaluations from site to site.

[Treebeard]

MVP2110: That's a very impressive piece of work! Have you done any kind of follow-up analysis on how your work has tracked against the actual picks? Even just correct placement by round? I realize there's a difference between prospect ratings and how individual teams view draft needs.

[MVP2110]

MVP2110: That's a very impressive piece of work! Have you done any kind of follow-up analysis on how your work has tracked against the actual picks? Even just correct placement by round? I realize there's a difference between prospect ratings and how individual teams view draft needs.

This is the 1st year I've ever done a model this in depth to try and encapsulate everything I value in a prospect so no. I have gone to my past rankings to see how I've done in general to see if I've been successful or not and where to try and improve but not to see how my picks tracked against where the players actually get picked. It would definitely be interesting though

[Matches Malone]

Read on Twitter

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Doug's probably my favorite draft follow once February rolls around. Looking forward to his top 50.

[Matches Malone]

Read on Twitter

[ReasonablySober]

Commanders are having McCarthy in for a visit. I was listening to Mina on a pod with Bomani last night and she was talking about him, and how we're all underrating how appealing it is if you're a coach and you have a Kirk Cousins as your QB. Just a good, solid QB who'll come in and run your offense without you having to worry about them going full Josh Allen.

[Matches Malone]

Read on Twitter

[ReasonablySober]

Would really like that one. Huge potential.

[TroyD92]

Pretty happy with this one.

[ReasonablySober]

Farrar's top 50.

1. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
2. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Harrison is absolutely plug-and-play in the NFL from Day 1. If he had a fifth gear at the third level of a defense, he might be the best player in this class, regardless of position. He has just about everything else.

5. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
7. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
8. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
9. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
10. Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
11. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
12. Johnny (Jer'zhan) Newton, DL, Illinois
13. Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
14. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
15. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
16. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
17. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
18. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
19. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
20. Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
21. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
22. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
23. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
24. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
25. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
26. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
27. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
28. Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
30. Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
31. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
32. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
33. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech
34. Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State
35. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
36. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
37. Cole Bishop, S, Utah
38. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
39. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
40. Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
41. Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
42. Marshawn Kneeland, DL, Western Michigan
43. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
44. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
45. Patrick Paul, OT. Houston
46. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
47. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
48. Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State
49. Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
50. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Full reports here.

Other than underrating MHJr.'s speed, not a ton I disagree with here.

[MVP2110]

Farrar's top 50.

1. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
2. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Harrison is absolutely plug-and-play in the NFL from Day 1. If he had a fifth gear at the third level of a defense, he might be the best player in this class, regardless of position. He has just about everything else.

5. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
7. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
8. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
9. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
10. Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
11. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
12. Johnny (Jer'zhan) Newton, DL, Illinois
13. Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
14. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
15. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
16. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
17. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
18. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
19. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
20. Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
21. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
22. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
23. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
24. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
25. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
26. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
27. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
28. Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
30. Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
31. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
32. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
33. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech
34. Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State
35. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
36. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
37. Cole Bishop, S, Utah
38. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
39. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
40. Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
41. Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
42. Marshawn Kneeland, DL, Western Michigan
43. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
44. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
45. Patrick Paul, OT. Houston
46. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
47. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
48. Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State
49. Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
50. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Full reports here.

Other than underrating MHJr.'s speed, not a ton I disagree with here.

Having Penix above Maye and having Bo Nix above McCarthy is pretty bold

[ReasonablySober]

Farrar's top 50.

1. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
2. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State


5. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
7. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
8. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
9. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
10. Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
11. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
12. Johnny (Jer'zhan) Newton, DL, Illinois
13. Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
14. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
15. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
16. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
17. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
18. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
19. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
20. Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
21. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
22. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
23. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
24. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
25. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
26. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
27. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
28. Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
30. Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
31. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
32. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
33. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech
34. Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State
35. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
36. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
37. Cole Bishop, S, Utah
38. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
39. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
40. Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
41. Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
42. Marshawn Kneeland, DL, Western Michigan
43. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
44. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
45. Patrick Paul, OT. Houston
46. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
47. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
48. Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State
49. Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
50. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Full reports here.

Other than underrating MHJr.'s speed, not a ton I disagree with here.

Having Penix above Maye & McCarthy is pretty bold

One thing you have to know about Farrar is he's a bit of a U-Dub homer. So every year he's typically more in on Washington players than the consensus.

That said, Penix was better than Maye and McCarthy last year. He threw the ball better than almost anyone. The two biggest questions with Penix were athleticism and injury history, and Penix probably shocked a lot of people with his athletic testing this spring.

[MVP2110]

Farrar's top 50.



Full reports here.

Other than underrating MHJr.'s speed, not a ton I disagree with here.

Having Penix above Maye & McCarthy is pretty bold

One thing you have to know about Farrar is he's a bit of a U-Dub homer. So every year he's typically more in on Washington players than the consensus.

That said, Penix was better than Maye and McCarthy last year. He threw the ball better than almost anyone. The two biggest questions with Penix were athleticism and injury history, and Penix probably shocked a lot of people with his athletic testing this spring.

I won't necessarily disagree thag Penix was better last year but it's still a bold take to have McCarthy at QB6 and Maye at QB4. Penix and Bo Nix should have been better since they are several years older than Maye & McCarthy. Maybe I'm mistaken a bit but it seems Farrar judges more by what a player did as opposed to what they might develop into.

Also having Alt all the way down at 19 sticks out