2024 NFL Draft - five picks in the first three rounds (seven in four! [probably])

[RRyder823]

If 25 is too early to draft an IOL, when is it OK if you think he can be a starter for the next decade?

I'm a believer in the positional value argument, but 25 is getting to that fringe range where late 1st early 2nd start blending together.

I'm not drafting a IOL in the top 15 but 25 is perfectly fine. Plus it does address a need.

I think there's push back on the idea of Barton for 2 reasons.

1: People dont like it cause it's not the sexy move

2: After those RAS numbers came out those same people are realizing the not sexy and boring move might have just become very likely in round 1

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[jakecronus8]

Part of the preference for me is with a first round pick you get the 5th year option. Having said that, if I was a gm more years than not I would want to use my first round pick on a QB, WR, LT, CB or Edge. If the value doesn't match I'd look for a trade up or down.

[RRyder823]

Part of the preference for me is with a first round pick you get the 5th year option. Having said that, if I was a gm more years than not I would want to use my first round pick on a QB, WR, LT, CB or Edge. If the value doesn't match I'd look for a trade up or down.

I get everything you said and don't particularly disagree with anything but this last part is key because there's also times where the value could not be there in a trade up or down and you just draft your highest tiered player.



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[Matches Malone]

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[Matches Malone]

Ja'Quan Sheppard on a top 30 visit with the Packers.

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[MickeyDavis]

Some ESPN "insider" notes

RISERS:

Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame. One of the biggest surprises of the combine was Estime's 40-yard dash time of 4.71 seconds. No one expected him to break Chris Johnson's 4.24 running back record (2008), but that speed was concerning -- even for a big back at 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds. Estime got redemption at the Notre Dame pro day, though, with a 4.58-second run that is more in line with the speed he has shown on tape. Currently ranked as a late-Round 3 pick on my board, Estime has the power, patience, vision and contact balance of an NFL starting running back. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him among the top three RBs selected in this year's draft.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. Hear me out on this, as I know many people are inherently dubious of the value of a quarterback pro day. And I agree, but what makes this situation a little bit different is that McCarthy's throwing session was a chance for the spotlight to be shined mostly on him, something that was not frequently the case at Michigan relative to other top quarterback prospects. The Wolverines were among the top 10 run-heavy teams in the nation, but McCarthy took center stage at the pro day.

Weighing in at 220 pounds -- up from his listed weight of 202 and in line with his 219 combine number -- McCarthy threw the ball with force and accuracy. Many NFL teams feel there are four top quarterbacks (rather than three), and I would not rule anything out with McCarthy -- obviously other than him going first overall to the Bears.

One of the most interesting nuggets I've picked up over the past two weeks is that multiple NFL teams have McCarthy ranked ahead of North Carolina's Drake Maye. A high-ranking evaluator I spoke to this week said McCarthy's winning résumé, upside as a mobile QB and impeccable poise under pressure all graded out higher for them than Maye. When under pressure last season, McCarthy completed an FBS-best 68% of his passes and averaged 10 yards per attempt (second-best).

Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina. I'm going with a quarterback, too. Rattler generated plenty of buzz after his pro day throwing session, and an AFC area scout told me, "I think a team may take a chance on him somewhere in Round 2." Displaying balance, poise and accuracy, Rattler got the ball out with velocity. He worked his way through the workout with confidence, and I counted only five balls that fell to the turf, with three of those being drops. Teams that miss out on a QB early could take a long look at Rattler on Day 2.

FALLING

T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas. I'm not sure Sweat is a top-30 or even top-40 player overall. While there's a ton to love about Sweat's game -- he's the most powerful defensive player in the class -- it is rare for a player of his stature (366 pounds) to play a significant number of snaps every week at the next level. Over the past five seasons, there has been just one NFL defensive player listed at 350-plus pounds to play at least 50% of his team's defensive snaps in a season (Michael Pierce at 55% last season). Sweat's flashes are outstanding, but I believe he will be more of a 40-45% player as opposed to someone who plays 60% or more of the snaps. And that makes using a top-64 pick on Sweat a less valuable use of resources in my opinion.

JC Latham, OT, Alabama. I have Latham at No. 23 overall, quite a bit lower than the top-15 status he gets from many evaluators. His heavy feet stand out way too often when watching him, despite some really good traits (grip strength and power) and the fact that he allowed two sacks in his entire career. Today's NFL requires movement and agility along the offensive line, as the West Coast system's roots touch so many playbooks. Tackles who can get to the second level are now a requirement, and that's not part of Latham's game. Maybe I'm overthinking this or putting too much stock into games against Texas and Michigan in which he struggled. But Latham looks like a good right tackle or even right guard to me, not a potential top-five NFL right tackle with a top-15 ranking.

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. Guyton anchored the right side of Oklahoma's offensive front and had a really good final season there. The pass-protection traits are appealing, too. But Guyton still has room for improvement as a run-blocker, as his hand usage and balance are inconsistent. He tends to misfire with his hands and slide off blocks. We saw it on tape and again at the Senior Bowl. In a deep offensive tackle class, I have Guyton graded as an early Day 2 prospect and ranked No. 31 overall. But based on consensus, he could be a first-rounder, and it would not be surprising if Guyton is drafted as high as No. 20 to the Steelers.

OTHER NOTES

Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton had his pro day Thursday and wowed evaluators in attendance. At 6-5 and 313 pounds, scouts had times in the 4.94-4.97 range for his 40-yard dash and an impressive 7.31-second three-cone drill. Barton is viewed primarily as a center, but many scouts who I talked to mentioned the Titans' Peter Skoronski as a comparison. Some evaluators say Barton could go inside the top 15, pointing to a lack of versatile interior blockers in this class. (I have him ranked at No. 26.)

In talking to scouts over the past two weeks, it sounds like teams are not as high on Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson as the media consensus. JPJ had a strong early performance at the Senior Bowl before leaving the second practice with a hamstring injury. It was that early impression that saw him rise up draft boards. He followed that up with a good showing in position drills at the combine but didn't participate in most of the other drills -- he did only the bench press and vertical/broad jumps -- before shutting it down. The feedback I've received from teams is that while he might go in the first round, it's unlikely that he would be selected in the top 25 picks based on where teams are ranking him.

Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey comes up often in scouting chats, as Christian's younger brother is a fun prospect to study and project. The former quarterback has just two seasons as a receiver under his belt, but he crushed the combine and shows a competitive edge on film. While his route running is still a work in progress, McCaffrey tied with Odunze for the most contested catches in FBS last season with 24. He might need a developmental stage, but he's an early Day 3 pick I would bet on -- and he has a lot of love around the league.

[Frank Nova]

If we decide to consolidate some picks and actually move up for a stud, who’s everyone’s big target? I’d love for us to make a big splash for Arnold or Mitchell and solidify the boundary with a potential star CB. I also would be super happy with a medium size trade up for Cooper Dejean. Those would be my big 3 I’d target if we do happen to move up. Anyone else?

[MVP2110]

If we decide to consolidate some picks and actually move up for a stud, who’s everyone’s big target? I’d love for us to make a big splash for Arnold or Mitchell and solidify the boundary with a potential star CB. I also would be super happy with a medium size trade up for Cooper Dejean. Those would be my big 3 I’d target if we do happen to move up. Anyone else?

If they move up it almost has to be for one of the CBs. There isn't anyone else that hits both the talent level & need level that you want when you're trading up for a player.

[ReasonablySober]

If they wanted to go nuts and use both 2nds, the 2024 trade chart says they could get up to #7.

Let's say all four QBs go in the first six picks.

You'd be left with one from:

Harrison
Nabers
Odunze
Bowers
Alt
Turner
Mitchell

I would try and land Harrison once I was up that high, but I'd be very happy with Nabers or Odunze. Alt might be worth it. Mitchell yes. Turner no. Bowers I think you could get a bit lower.

[Isocleas2]

If we decide to consolidate some picks and actually move up for a stud, who’s everyone’s big target? I’d love for us to make a big splash for Arnold or Mitchell and solidify the boundary with a potential star CB. I also would be super happy with a medium size trade up for Cooper Dejean. Those would be my big 3 I’d target if we do happen to move up. Anyone else?

I really like staying put, but the only way I'd be happy moving up is if a CB they love fell into the mid/late teens and the additional cost was just one of our day 2 picks.

Maybe I could be talked into moving up for a defensive tackle if they really thought they had a game changer.

The other major positions besides CB that you move up in the 1st round for are all covered pretty well already (QB, Edge, LT, WR).

[Matches Malone]

I wonder if Kool-Aids foot injury hampered his overall athletic testing during his pro-day. 7.50 overall RAS isn't awful, but I'm guessing he could put up better numbers without a foot fracture. He'd be an awesome press corner in this style of defense but idk if I'd take him at 25 now.

[drdrG]

If we can get two of Cooper DeJean, Graham Barton, Jer'Zhan Newton, Byron Murphy either by the board falling in our favor or a trade up, I'd be ecstatic. I don't think there is a way we can get Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold without giving up a bunch but would love either of them too.

[MVP2110]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redrafting-2023-nfl-draft-panthers-pick-c-j-stroud-jahmyr-gibbs-to-giants-to-replace-saquon-barkley/

This is a bit dated but I just found it. Packers have 3 guys go in the 1st round of a 2023 redraft

[Treebeard]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redrafting-2023-nfl-draft-panthers-pick-c-j-stroud-jahmyr-gibbs-to-giants-to-replace-saquon-barkley/

This is a bit dated but I just found it. Packers have 3 guys go in the 1st round of a 2023 redraft

Here's a companion piece: Love getting some love.
The list covers 22 QBs drafted since 2020

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/ranking-top-qbs-from-2020-2024-draft-classes-heres-how-caleb-williams-c-j-stroud-and-others-stack-up/

[quote]Ranking top QBs from 2020-2024 draft classes[/quote]

#1 Joe Burrough

2. Jordan Love, Packers

Slowly but surely Love morphed into one of the bright young quarterback stars in the NFL. And take a minute to think about the talent around him. Green Bay is young and loaded, and were a few fluky plays from playing for the NFC title a few months ago. Their coach is about as successful as a new head coach as been at his first stop, and the GM has proven capable of drafting well and striking the right chord with a methodical approach to free agency.

But this high ranking is not simply due to situation alone. Love is a special talent too, and I'm slightly surprised we haven't gotten more Love comparisons for Caleb Williams in this draft process, because Love did some remarkably creative things at Utah State too. He can find receivers through precarious situation from any arm angle, and it appeared the game slowed for him in 2023 when it came to deciphering coverages. Look out for Love in Green Bay.

#3 CJ Stroud

Of course, the ratings are subjective, but its still a fun read.

[ReasonablySober]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redrafting-2023-nfl-draft-panthers-pick-c-j-stroud-jahmyr-gibbs-to-giants-to-replace-saquon-barkley/

This is a bit dated but I just found it. Packers have 3 guys go in the 1st round of a 2023 redraft

God that's a terrible redraft. Just awful.

[Karmaloop]

If they wanted to go nuts and use both 2nds, the 2024 trade chart says they could get up to #7.

It's probably more likely we trade up from 41 than it is from 25. I could see them sending a 4th to move up into the early portion of the 2nd round, and walking away with something like Cooper DeJean, Graham Barton, and Kris Jenkins with our first 3 picks. Not a sexy draft by any means, but just a real solid one all-around.

[ReasonablySober]

Watch on YouTube

Was injured before the combine and still isn't all the way back. But he's a fun player.

[MKE_Hodag22]

Nice little bored on a Monday morning mock- PFN 7 rounds.

25 - Chop Robinson, DE Penn State (9.71 RAS)
41 - TJ Tampa, CB Iowa State
58 - Trey Benson, RB Florida State (9.75 RAS)
88 - Cole Bishop, S Utah (9.87 RAS)
91 - Trevin Wallace, LB Kentucky (9.31 RAS)
126 - Brandon Coleman, OG TCU (9.98 RAS)
169 - Garret Greenfield, OT South Dakota St (8.63 RAS)
202 - Omar Speights, LB LSU
219 - DeCamerion Richardson, CB Miss St (9.67 RAS)
245 - Ryan Watts, S Texas (9.08 RAS)
255 - Frank Crum, OT Wyoming (9.83 RAS)

[coolhandluke121]

...walking away with something like Cooper DeJean, Graham Barton, and Kris Jenkins with our first 3 picks. Not a sexy draft...

Are you going for irony? This would be sexy af.

[crkone]

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