Barnwell doesn't like GB.
On "Around the Horn" on Monday, ESPN's Ramona Shelbourne wondered whether the Eagles might have been laughing on the inside about losing out on the division title to the Cowboys. The 2-seed means at least one home game and avoiding the 49ers until the conference finals, but playing the Packers feels a lot more dangerous than playing the Buccaneers, given how Green Bay has won three straight to advance to the postseason.
As someone who had the Packers making it to the postseason back in September, I was hoping to see a little more from them during the regular season. Quarterback Jordan Love's development with one of the youngest receiving corps in league history has been a joy to watch, and they have managed to advance despite missing left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander and wideout Christian Watson for long stretches of the season.
With that being said, the defense is still a concern. Green Bay's 10th-ranked scoring defense is a product of playing a slow pace; it ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per snap allowed and 22nd in points allowed per drive. The Cowboys were the only team to run fewer drives on offense, in part because Dallas ran more plays per possession than any other team. Expect this one to be a game in which each team only gets eight or nine possessions.
As Underdog Fantasy's Hayden Winks mentioned on Twitter, the Packers are weak up the middle. Their pass defense ranked dead last in QBR allowed on throws between the numbers (88.2). Guess who slices teams up there? Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, whose 84.1 QBR on throws over the middle ranks fourth-best in the NFL. Only two teams allowed more yards per throw to receivers out of the slot than Green Bay, and white-hot receiver CeeDee Lamb will get plenty of opportunities there.
It's inevitable that the Cowboys will get pressure on Love. He's the fifth-best passer in the league by QBR under duress, but he and the Packers went 4-6 when opposing defense pressured him more than 25% of the time. The Cowboys hit that mark 14 times in 17 games. Love will make a big play or two, but the Cowboys will wear down the Packers and coordinator Joe Barry won't have answers for Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Packers 17
