Jarace Walker potential?

[Grang33r]

Watching him get a little bit of a run today made me think about this future. He's obviously raw (which coach Carlisle has said several times this season so no surprise) but i was a bit shocked that Brown got into the game ahead of him albeit it was by like a minute.

Anyways, i thought the shots he hit were nice, the shots he missed he was off balance so not sure why he decided to shoot those, some passes were nice and some were erratic. It was garbage time so can't take much from it.

But made me think. What's his potential? Is it something like Naz Reid? Or is his ceiling higher? Or is that too high?

[JMaster5K]

Watching him get a little bit of a run today made me think about this future. He's obviously raw (which coach Carlisle has said several times this season so no surprise) but i was a bit shocked that Brown got into the game ahead of him albeit it was by like a minute.

Anyways, i thought the shots he hit were nice, the shots he missed he was off balance so not sure why he decided to shoot those, some passes were nice and some were erratic. It was garbage time so can't take much from it.

But made me think. What's his potential? Is it something like Naz Reid? Or is his ceiling higher? Or is that too high?

Hey,.. =}

Only my opinion here,... but I think his potential is much higher. I don't believe JW will be a power forward at all. IMO, he will end up as a 3,... more of a 'point forward'. Similar to the way that Coach used Artest with the Pacers in 03-04, and the way he used Shawn Marion & Jay Crowder in 12-13; Chandler Parsons in 14-15 / 15-16;...

I know JW has the athleticism to defend on the perimeter. He has a really nice set of fundamental skills. But, he has a long way to go to know how to use those skills and that athleticism at the NBA level. Let alone within the landscape of an NBA offense and defense.

For me,.. I don't think we start to see regular minutes, at the earliest, until the end of the season / playoffs next year. That is assuming he has the work ethic & basketball IQ to get to a trusted rotation level player. Then he has to get where Reid is,... starting level player,... then keep adding beyond that. (Sorry, stating the obvious,... =/ )

I believe, if everything comes together for him, his potential is a new version of 03-04 Artest, who was league defensive player of the year, with a better offensive package than Artest. Reid has developed into a NBA starting level player. Think JW will do the same. the difference to me, is that at that level, JW will still have untapped upside. Reid is likely playing at his ceiling. Reid's counting stats may go up with more minutes, opportunities, or usage, but I don't see more levels of development coming from him? Would love to be wrong, like him as a player, I just don't see it. For JW, i can see upside beyond that.

Can he get there?... That's up to him... How long will it take?... If he does have it in him, your guess is likely better than mine,.. LOL =] I'd just really love to see it happen.

[Wizop]

When he did get into the game yesterday, he was essentially the 4th point guard. K_Brown is a wing. that Brown came in first probably only reflected the position that opened up first.

[Pacers Forever]

I agree with JMaster5K in the sense that Jarace Walker has a lot of potential and raw talent that needs time to develop into NBA skills that will get him regular minutes. If he would have stayed in college I believe he’d be closer to NBA ready.

The NBA are drafting more young talent than ever before. It used to be just superstars like Garnett coming out early.

These days it’s evolved into drafting potential and sitting them on your bench and filling out the G league roster with youngsters. Used to be more old veterans sitting on the NBA benches.

Now even the Kendall Browns of the college basketball world are 1 and done being drafted into the NBA on longer vision potential. It will take time for these types of players to mature their mindset and become relevant compared to the 4 years of college type of players like Sheppard.

As for Walker being drafted in the first round I think he was lucky to be in a weaker draft. Sheppard looks like a steal as did Nembhard and possibly I Jax. Mathurin looked more like a top prospect and Duarte looks like a miss so far.

It’s also possible if Walker was on say the Wizards he may have gotten more run this season and proven that he should be in the rotation.

With the Pacers being talent deep he’s a bit blocked from that opportunity. I’m not sure if it gets much better next season until we see what roster moves are made in the offseason or he shows skills needed to warrant being on the second unit regularly.

The Pacers depth is a great asset as we’ve seen all season. As long as the front office can continue to obtain or develop bigger talent pieces at the top of the roster the youth will get their chance. However, if the Pacers load the roster consistently with equal talent then the rookies have to really work to beat out NBA ready players and get minutes.

[Wizop]

I don't know what happened with Duarte. He had a great rookie year and then regressed. Perhaps he never got over an injury.

[Scoot McGroot]

I don't know what happened with Duarte. He had a great rookie year and then regressed. Perhaps he never got over an injury.

Guessing he should have gotten the foot surgery asap instead of trying to rehab and then play through it?

But yeah. I was a huge fan his rookie year. He just seemed to be impactful in so many ways that year, and then he just never played that well in any single facet of his game. It was wild.

[Wizop]

then he just never played that well in any single facet of his game. It was wild.

And he didn't do anything for the Kings

Basically we swapped him for Obi as both deals were two seconds although we got a better pair.

[JMaster5K]

When he did get into the game yesterday, he was essentially the 4th point guard. K_Brown is a wing. that Brown came in first probably only reflected the position that opened up first.

I was actually surprised by the bits I saw. Earlier in the season when they used him as a primary ball handler, he would get the ball into the set; he wouid make some passes from the short roll or the mid post; but he wasn't actually reading the defense & attacking to force a defensive adjustment. In game 4, he was actually attacking from the perimeter to get 'two feet in the paint', then trying to read/react/pass. It's a very small thing,... but it speaks volume to how much he has grown as a ball handler,... as as Wizop points out,.. an offensive creator.

[JMaster5K]

then he just never played that well in any single facet of his game. It was wild.

And he didn't do anything for the Kings

Basically we swapped him for Obi as both deals were two seconds although we got a better pair.

He was an older rookie. It was Coach's first year with the team. From comments at the time,... prior to the trade for Ty, Duarte played really well. That team was not a pace / transition team, and Coach was calling set plays from the bench a large part of the time, both offensively and defensively.

After the trade, the team grew into a pace / transition team that relied on reading the defense (or offense). Duarte, even though he was an older rookie, had never been asked to play read-attack, read-defend basketball. He had always played in a mostly structured system. When asked to process what was happening, he didn't have the experience to do that in a timely manner. He continually got caught 'thinking about it'. Slowing down his processing enough that even in transition, he was working at a different speed than the rest of the team.

It looked like it might take his whole rookie contract for him to be able to 'come up to speed',... as it were. There was quite a bit of evidence & conversation around this after his trade to Sac-town. His on court fit & timing with Doma (which was really good), when he was playing at a slower tempo - in specific/plays/actions, were symptoms of this.

Based on where the team was going, I guess the FO was actually (again) doing him a favor. He wasn't going to be part of the rotation or grow in the same direction as the team, so they moved him to a place where he would have a better opportunity. The real evidence to support this will be next year. Because if the above has any truth? Duarte should be better next year, when he's had a chance to learn the Sac system and the team rhythm.

The foot injury & slow recovery only made all this worse. Still think he can be a good player. Still think he could be a key rotation player, maybe even a starter?.. but it will likely only happen on certain teams, and only after he has time to learn at the NBA level. He could be one of those guys that 'appears' out of nowhere as a 28 year old, on his second contract?

[Scoot McGroot]

then he just never played that well in any single facet of his game. It was wild.

And he didn't do anything for the Kings

Basically we swapped him for Obi as both deals were two seconds although we got a better pair.

He was an older rookie. It was Coach's first year with the team. From comments at the time,... prior to the trade for Ty, Duarte played really well. That team was not a pace / transition team, and Coach was calling set plays from the bench a large part of the time, both offensively and defensively.

After the trade, the team grew into a pace / transition team that relied on reading the defense (or offense). Duarte, even though he was an older rookie, had never been asked to play read-attack, read-defend basketball. He had always played in a mostly structured system. When asked to process what was happening, he didn't have the experience to do that in a timely manner. He continually got caught 'thinking about it'. Slowing down his processing enough that even in transition, he was working at a different speed than the rest of the team.

It looked like it might take his whole rookie contract for him to be able to 'come up to speed',... as it were. There was quite a bit of evidence & conversation around this after his trade to Sac-town. His on court fit & timing with Doma (which was really good), when he was playing at a slower tempo - in specific/plays/actions, were symptoms of this.

Based on where the team was going, I guess the FO was actually (again) doing him a favor. He wasn't going to be part of the rotation or grow in the same direction as the team, so they moved him to a place where he would have a better opportunity. The real evidence to support this will be next year. Because if the above has any truth? Duarte should be better next year, when he's had a chance to learn the Sac system and the team rhythm.

The foot injury & slow recovery only made all this worse. Still think he can be a good player. Still think he could be a key rotation player, maybe even a starter?.. but it will likely only happen on certain teams, and only after he has time to learn at the NBA level. He could be one of those guys that 'appears' out of nowhere as a 28 year old, on his second contract?

These are all really good points and thoughts.

[JMaster5K]

And he didn't do anything for the Kings

Basically we swapped him for Obi as both deals were two seconds although we got a better pair.

He was an older rookie. It was Coach's first year with the team. From comments at the time,... prior to the trade for Ty, Duarte played really well. That team was not a pace / transition team, and Coach was calling set plays from the bench a large part of the time, both offensively and defensively.

These are all really good points and thoughts.

Thanks Scoot. (*blush*) For me, and a couple of coffee break, arm chair, GM friends, Duarte is a case study of what we actually mean we talk about 'fit'. =/

To be fair,... most of the posters on this page saw this,.. the comments about him being out of place,.. 'just standing there',... not moving to the open spots,... were all observations of his need to recognize & process what was happening, but unable to do it before the action went past him to the next action.

[JMaster5K]

The NBA are drafting more young talent than ever before. It used to be just superstars like Garnett coming out early.

These days it’s evolved into drafting potential and sitting them on your bench and filling out the G league roster with youngsters. Used to be more old veterans sitting on the NBA benches.

Now even the Kendall Browns of the college basketball world are 1 and done being drafted into the NBA on longer vision potential. It will take time for these types of players to mature their mindset and become relevant compared to the 4 years of college type of players like Sheppard.

I gotta agree with you. 41 of the 179 early entrants this year are freshmen or were born in 2005. (note: This year, because of COVID, normal Seniors who do not take their 'super senior' season are considered early entrants.) When the ones drafted finish their rookie contracts, they will only be around 22? Most of the teams are now being asked to spend millions on 'potential' that won't even likely begin to show (in most cases) until the player gets to their second contract. And, you have to carry them in a roster spot.

Silver wanting to re-open the league to 18 year olds, high school grads, generally,... just doesn't make any sense to me!

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20. At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally. Once you graduate high school,.. you got 2 years, College, G-League, Int'l league,.. doesn't matter. But the teams get to see the potential draftees in a 'pro like' environment before you have to spend money on them. It would increase the visibility & interest in the G-league (kinda like AAA baseball? or the soccer club teams in EU?) With the money that now available via NIL, it might even help bring more advertising / marketing revenue to the G-league to keep it competitive with NIL?

The NBA would still be rewarding the veterans who make it and stick, but the teams (and ultimately the star players) would have less risk of having a roster spot filled with someone that isn't going to help the team that year, or next,.. or the one after that.

As important at least to me,... you aren't asking 18 & 19 year olds to go up against 25 - 40 year old men. I can still remember a couple of orthopedic doctors suggesting that it was likely that Jonathan Bender never gets injured if he was given the time to develop, grow naturally, get his joints to mend properly instead of trying to manage & train for an NBA 82 game season. How many Benders is Silver going to sacrifice to be seen as the person bringing 1 LeBron into the league?......

Sorry,.. got on a rant,... again,..... as usual,... dam,... 8{

[Wizop]

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20. At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally.{

I think that ship sailed with NIL. Only real NBA contracts are likely to compete financially with a big time college program.

[JMaster5K]

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20. At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally.{

I think that ship sailed with NIL. Only real NBA contracts are likely to compete financially with a big time college program.

Yeah,.. you are right at the moment,... but it all depends on how much revenue the league brings in? If you can get the G-League to the point that you have NBA Minimum level contracts as pretty standard (without the huge contracts on the other end of course), you could be pretty competitive with NIL?

There was a report last week on a player that had the highest NIL package in the NCAA (I don't remember the guy or the sport, but it was not one that would make you think, 'oh yeah, NIL'...) and I was surprised, the package was only a little over 2 mill?....Pretty much puts it on par, just slightly ahead of the NBA, 2 years experience min contract?

You could also work the G-league draft, like the BB Minor league draft,.. where a player gets drafted to an NBA club, but assigned to the G-league for his first 2 years?.... (a lot more would go into it),.. but there are some options that could make the 2 competitive. =]

As the NBA owns the G-league, anything they could do to increase the revenue, and increase the visibility would only help the big league as well. Give 18 & 19 year olds a 40 game professional schedule (like a 30+ game then tourney schedule for an NCAA team) to develop instead of dropping them into an 82 game format off the bat?

[Wizop]

You could also work the G-league draft, like the BB Minor league draft,.. where a player gets drafted to an NBA club, but assigned to the G-league for his first 2 years?.... (a lot more would go into it),.. but there are some options that could make the 2 competitive. =]

I'd back 5 two-way players

[Scoot McGroot]

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20.

I think they'd run into collective bargaining issues with the players, and maybe with the government? I think we'll soon see players sue to try and eliminate the 5 year to play 4 seasons limit on colleges, too.

At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally.

The age limit for the GLeague is already 18, as we've seen with the GLeague Ignite team in recent years (and they're disbanding this year).

But the teams get to see the potential draftees in a 'pro like' environment before you have to spend money on them.

The teams and owners would already be spending money on them, as they own the GLeague, both wholly and independently as teams. Plus, I think the owners really DO NOT want the age limit to drop, and would prefer these players be forced to play in college for a year or two, where someone else has to pay them money and shoulder the developmental burden/costs a bit.

[JMaster5K]

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20.

I think they'd run into collective bargaining issues with the players, and maybe with the government? I think we'll soon see players sue to try and eliminate the 5 year to play 4 seasons limit on colleges, too.

At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally.

The age limit for the GLeague is already 18, as we've seen with the GLeague Ignite team in recent years (and they're disbanding this year).

But the teams get to see the potential draftees in a 'pro like' environment before you have to spend money on them.

The teams and owners would already be spending money on them, as they own the GLeague, both wholly and independently as teams. Plus, I think the owners really DO NOT want the age limit to drop, and would prefer these players be forced to play in college for a year or two, where someone else has to pay them money and shoulder the developmental burden/costs a bit.

you could be right about the 5 to play 4. Collective bargaining would have to play into it. The NBAPA would have to be on board, but as it would potentially extend careers for the people with real money that they represent,... I think that could be worked out. Having the age limit at 20 seems to be working well for the NFL? (Which has stood up to legal challenge.) So there is a precedent.

Yeah,.. I didn't address Ignite cause it was already long-winded,.. but make 18 year olds available to all G-League teams, as a part of the G-League draft. So every G-league team, not just the disbanding ignite could have a couple 18 year olds on their roster. You end up with a mix of youngsters, guys that just didn't quite make the NBA, and older veterans that still want to play but aren't on a big league roster.

Yeah,. you are right,.. the teams/owners would be spending money on them in the G-league as they own it,.. but paying a player a couple of million a year for 2 years,...to see how he develops in a pro setting, instead of 10+M a year for 4 years as a first round lottery pick? Where you have to wait that same 2 years to get them to develop to the same point?.... LOL I think I know what I would choose?....

[Pacers Forever]

As most here I really liked Duarte’s ability and potential. He impressed early with his 3 point shooting and scoring ability driving through contact like Mathurin. Then he was exposed on defense. After he came back from injury I thought right before he was traded he was hustling more on defense and felt like he was learning. His offense wasn’t as good as in the beginning.

I am so glad he was dealt with Domas as that opened room for drafting of possibly better players like Mathurin, Nembhard, and Sheppard. The front office has hit big on at least 3 second round picks recently.

[JMaster5K]

IMO, they should raise the age limit to play in the NBA to 20. At the same time,... you lower the age for the G-League to 18, generally.{

I think that ship sailed with NIL. Only real NBA contracts are likely to compete financially with a big time college program.

There was a report last week on a player that had the highest NIL package in the NCAA (I don't remember the guy or the sport, but it was not one that would make you think, 'oh yeah, NIL'...) and I was surprised, the package was only a little over 2 mill?....Pretty much puts it on par, just slightly ahead of the NBA, 2 years experience min contract?

Funny?.... mention it in a post & CBS sports does a story on the guy,... LOL

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-2-million-deal-that-rocked-basketball-nba-draft-combine-abuzz-over-great-osobors-nil-payday/

[Grang33r]

Watching him get a little bit of a run today made me think about this future. He's obviously raw (which coach Carlisle has said several times this season so no surprise) but i was a bit shocked that Brown got into the game ahead of him albeit it was by like a minute.

Anyways, i thought the shots he hit were nice, the shots he missed he was off balance so not sure why he decided to shoot those, some passes were nice and some were erratic. It was garbage time so can't take much from it.

But made me think. What's his potential? Is it something like Naz Reid? Or is his ceiling higher? Or is that too high?

Hey,.. =}

Only my opinion here,... but I think his potential is much higher. I don't believe JW will be a power forward at all. IMO, he will end up as a 3,... more of a 'point forward'. Similar to the way that Coach used Artest with the Pacers in 03-04, and the way he used Shawn Marion & Jay Crowder in 12-13; Chandler Parsons in 14-15 / 15-16;...

I know JW has the athleticism to defend on the perimeter. He has a really nice set of fundamental skills. But, he has a long way to go to know how to use those skills and that athleticism at the NBA level. Let alone within the landscape of an NBA offense and defense.

For me,.. I don't think we start to see regular minutes, at the earliest, until the end of the season / playoffs next year. That is assuming he has the work ethic & basketball IQ to get to a trusted rotation level player. Then he has to get where Reid is,... starting level player,... then keep adding beyond that. (Sorry, stating the obvious,... =/ )

I believe, if everything comes together for him, his potential is a new version of 03-04 Artest, who was league defensive player of the year, with a better offensive package than Artest. Reid has developed into a NBA starting level player. Think JW will do the same. the difference to me, is that at that level, JW will still have untapped upside. Reid is likely playing at his ceiling. Reid's counting stats may go up with more minutes, opportunities, or usage, but I don't see more levels of development coming from him? Would love to be wrong, like him as a player, I just don't see it. For JW, i can see upside beyond that.

Can he get there?... That's up to him... How long will it take?... If he does have it in him, your guess is likely better than mine,.. LOL =] I'd just really love to see it happen.

Sorry just saw this post. Thanks for the detailed post. Some really good insight in here and i really hope you're right, that would be massive for Walker to turn out for the Pacers.