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Pacers forecast for 2023-24

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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#21 » by Pacers Forever » Tue Oct 24, 2023 9:52 pm

I’m being optimistic with a 45-37 record this season. Of course barring major injuries which any NBA team has problems overcoming.

Small sample size to form my opinion but I feel these are the changes and observations that warrant my optimistic prediction:

Team talent and roster structure feels like:
8 teams we shouldn’t lose to in the league this year
16 teams equally talented as us
That leaves only 5 teams in league clearly above us
Only 2 teams in our conference clearly above us


Addition of starter caliber talent in Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown. I believe both are still maturing in their careers also.

Recent years signings, trades, and draft picks have our talent and depth at the best quality and quantity in many years.

Team now has more playmakers and scoring options which negates impact of short term injuries better.

I feel 15 of 18 of our players are still in a maturation phase so players are getting better and not stagnant or declining. Excludes Hield and McConnell who fall into the very good still category but not young
Excludes Theis older and still very unknown to us

Individual players assessment in my opinion
Haliburton - all star
Turner - maturing a complete skill set
Hield - steady 3 point threat
B Brown - still developing and champion experience
Toppin - still young and looking to fit and breakout
McConnell - veteran, knowledgeable and a pest
Smith - still learning, adjusting, adapting to his fit
Nesmith - getting better yearly still has potential
Mathurin - talented, driven, and much learning left
Nembhard - surprising talent and bright future
Nwora - depth of talent unknown but potential
Walker - talented rookie, NBA raw, potential
Shepherd -shooter, may surprise like Nembhard did
Jackson - fun, talented but skill set needs expanded
Theis - the great unknown of his value to this team

2 way contracts
K Brown - 20 yrs old and raw, developmental piece
Wong -G league and long range developmental guard
Tshiebwe - very raw long range developmental center

Coaching staff has stayed pretty consistent only losing Ronald Nored.

A competitive atmosphere has now been achieved here more than ever which is driving players to:

Constructive competition among our players
Accelerated learning to stay relative here
Urgency to earn nightly game minutes
Team unity seems corrected in last couple of years

Let’s hope my assessment from afar coincides with the results we have been looking for in progression to at least the a play in game if not locked into a playoff position. Any lesser achievement (barring crucial injuries) will be disappointing based upon talent, coaching, timing, and front office roster construction.

:D :nod:
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#22 » by 8305 » Wed Oct 25, 2023 10:15 am

Pacers won consistently and could compete with good teams when Hali, Turner and Hield were all available to finish games. Seems like Toppin and Brown could be pretty significant upgrades over Nesmith and Nembhard. I’m anxious to see the impact of Toppin’s size and Brown’s toughness. If it’s big I could see 45+ wins.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#23 » by Wizop » Wed Oct 25, 2023 5:30 pm

pretty sure we start the game with Brown and Mathurin on the wing. I won't be shocked though if Nembhard and Hield get playing time near the end. will they close? might Nembhard and Brown come in for defense and Mathurin and Hield for offense?

let's hope we're far enough ahead tonight against Washington that we don't find out. a garbage time finish could see Nwora, Walker, Sheppard, and iJax on the floor.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#24 » by Hes_On_Fire » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:34 pm

Is Obi starting? What's your rotation look like?
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#25 » by Wizop » Wed Oct 25, 2023 8:11 pm

Hes_On_Fire wrote:Is Obi starting? What's your rotation look like?


I have it as Haliburton, B_Brown, Mathurin, Obi, and Turner starting.

Second unit as McConnell, Nembhard, Hield, Nesmith, and Smith,

we'll see for sure at 7:00.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#26 » by Topofthekey » Fri Oct 27, 2023 8:53 pm

I predict 43 wins, 7th seed in the playoffs
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#27 » by Wizop » Fri Oct 27, 2023 9:22 pm

Wizop wrote:
Hes_On_Fire wrote:Is Obi starting? What's your rotation look like?


I have it as Haliburton, B_Brown, Mathurin, Obi, and Turner starting.

Second unit as McConnell, Nembhard, Hield, Nesmith, and Smith,

we'll see for sure at 7:00.


Almost right. We played 9 not 10 with TJ not playing until garbage time.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#28 » by JMaster5K » Sat Oct 28, 2023 9:34 am

Wizop wrote:
Wizop wrote:
Hes_On_Fire wrote:Is Obi starting? What's your rotation look like?


I have it as Haliburton, B_Brown, Mathurin, Obi, and Turner starting.

Second unit as McConnell, Nembhard, Hield, Nesmith, and Smith,

we'll see for sure at 7:00.


Almost right. We played 9 not 10 with TJ not playing until garbage time.


Nice article/interview with TJ in the Star this morning.

https://eu.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2023/10/27/pacers-guard-t-j-mcconnell-out-of-rotation-but-staying-ready/71347684007/
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#29 » by JMaster5K » Sat Oct 28, 2023 9:46 am

The Athletic on Youtube giving the Pacers some love and discussion.



A bit too much? just right? or not enough?....
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#30 » by JMaster5K » Sat Oct 28, 2023 10:51 am

Just had a look at the season stats! Woo Hoo! Pacers are first in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and number 2 in differential! wait,... you say there's only been 1 game?... and that was against the projected worst team in the league?.... 00 nevermind,... 8/
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#31 » by Grang33r » Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:17 pm

JMaster5K wrote:Just had a look at the season stats! Woo Hoo! Pacers are first in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and number 2 in differential! wait,... you say there's only been 1 game?... and that was against the projected worst team in the league?.... 00 nevermind,... 8/


Yeah the biggest buzz kill about it was who they played against.

But the Pacers need to continue, first 7 of 9 are on home court. And not against only good teams. Theres a good mix in there of weak teams.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#32 » by Tom White » Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:53 pm

JMaster5K wrote:....11th in defensive rating....


HA! And that after giving up 120 points? I know the pace of the game played a part in that, but just how defensively bad were the other teams in the league in their opening games?
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#33 » by JMaster5K » Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:01 pm

Tom White wrote:
JMaster5K wrote:....11th in defensive rating....


HA! And that after giving up 120 points? I know the pace of the game played a part in that, but just how defensively bad were the other teams in the league in their opening games?


if it gives any context,... the Rockets are last in the league with -31 differential,... the Wizards are 29th with -20.8

If you look purely at defensive rating,.. the Wizards are last with a rating of 129.3,... or 129 points given up in 100 possessions,.. The Jazz are close on their heels at 127.4. The Rockets jump all the way up to 26th at 121.9. meaning that that they had the lowest diff, cause they couldn't score either,... 8/

But,.. this early in the season, we all know these numbers don't actually mean anything,... but we can have a smile at where we are today. LOL =]
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#34 » by JMaster5K » Fri Nov 3, 2023 1:49 pm

So, after the start of the season with the additional prediction,. our predicted win total now stands at 42 games. Even further above the over/under line forecasted by the sports books at 38.5 wins.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#35 » by Wizop » Sat Nov 4, 2023 2:11 am

Read on Twitter
?t=14JZdriobgP1v0KvED4C5w&s=19
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#36 » by JMaster5K » Sat Dec 2, 2023 3:06 pm

ESPN's NBA Index now projects us at 41.2 - 40.8.

https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#37 » by thonnisbeastley » Sat Dec 2, 2023 3:47 pm

Do you guys like Carlisle? Was just looking at your team's stats. Only Haliburton and Brown get 30mpg. 5 guys around 24 mpg. Then 4 more getting at least 14 mpg. That's 11 guys getting double digit minutes. Feel like you'd have a better record if your starters actually played and the rotation was cut down.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#38 » by Wizop » Sat Dec 2, 2023 3:53 pm

thonnisbeastley wrote:Do you guys like Carlisle? Was just looking at your team's stats. Only Haliburton and Brown get 30mpg. 5 guys around 24 mpg. Then 4 more getting at least 14 mpg. That's 11 guys getting double digit minutes. Feel like you'd have a better record if your starters actually played and the rotation was cut down.


There's a case to be made for just the opposite. We play at a very fast pace and players need fresh legs. We also pull players when they screw up which is good.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#39 » by Scoot McGroot » Sat Dec 2, 2023 5:25 pm

thonnisbeastley wrote:Do you guys like Carlisle? Was just looking at your team's stats. Only Haliburton and Brown get 30mpg. 5 guys around 24 mpg. Then 4 more getting at least 14 mpg. That's 11 guys getting double digit minutes. Feel like you'd have a better record if your starters actually played and the rotation was cut down.



He’s fine. I don’t personally love him, but he’s putting in the hard work of getting Mathurin, Walker, and the young guys to buckle down.

As for minutes, a lot of that is due to the extremely fast pace we play. The starters get close to the same amount of possessions they would get if they played 36ish minutes a night, but they stay a lot fresher this way, and get more guys developmental minutes.
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Re: Pacers forecast for 2023-24 

Post#40 » by Pacers Forever » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:23 am

Interesting to look back at the predictions we made for season win totals. As a group we had members say numbers in the range of 40-45. Very good feel for the team from us so far.

With 9 games left 4 on the road and 5 at home the Pacers are 41-32.

If they go 4 wins 5 losses to finish I hit the total exactly at 45. We also have guesses at I believe 42, 43, 44, and maybe another said 45 max.

I hope I’m wrong and they go 5-4 or 6-3 to end the season.

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