49ers trade DL DeForest Buckner to Colts for 1st round pick (#13)

[wco81]

How much are the 49ers going to invest in WRs when they have so many other positional needs?

Plus they had good offense this year, all based off the running game.

I don't see Kyle opening up the offense to throw it like the Saints do.

[Samurai]

I’m probably alone here but I’m a fan of Tee Higgins. Especially if Juedy is gone

Not saying this is right or wrong (who knows with the draft), but isn't Higgins very similar to Hurd in terms of style and body measurements? And if so, wouldn't it enhance our diversity to add a different dimension, such as an outside speed receiver? Ruggs would certainly fit that role if Jeudy is gone; Ruggs has Tyreke Hill-type speed. If we keep the #31 pick, guys like Justin Jefferson (6-1, 4.43 speed) or Jalen Reagor (5-11, 4.47) are possibilities. Or if we trade down to get some Day 2 picks, Denzel Mims (6-2, 4.38) could give Shanahan the size he likes combined with home-run speed.

Riggins is also 6’4” but that’s probably the only similarity that I can see. Riggins is a true outside the numbers deep threat.

OK good to know. I understand Higgins ran a 4.55 40 at his pro day, which seems to be in the same neighborhood as Hurd.

[Dodub]

How much are the 49ers going to invest in WRs when they have so many other positional needs?

Plus they had good offense this year, all based off the running game.

I don't see Kyle opening up the offense to throw it like the Saints do.

How many times was that same question asked about DL? It ended up getting us to the Super Bowl

[a8bil]

I hope I am wrong, but I fear the 49ers are going to learn this year how important DB was to the entire defense. The defense dominated only because they could get pressure up front from a 4 man front without blitzing. The only guy on that line who was consistently dominant against the run and pass was DB. Bosa next. Armstead, Ford & Blair a distant 3rd. That line will not be the same without him, and I fear our DBs and LBs are going to be exposed.

[michaelwarner]

I know we could and probably should trade back but does anyone think we should trade up for Okudah or Simmons? Or Juedy?

[49er4life1979]

His stats were down compared to other years. He didn't have the benefit of playing along side a DT who would soak up blocks -- Jones missed a lot of games.

But essentially he had one year of double-digit sacks, in 2018. In 2019, with Bosa and Armstead commanding a lot of attention, he got 7.5 sacks. He had fewer tackles as well.

Of course you want to keep him but if he really was demanding $20 million per year average, his production didn't justify it.

Now you can argue that he improved production for the other DL players but still, Donald and Watt get their huge contracts because they put up big numbers.

They may need to try to find more space eaters on the inside.

I don't know how deep overall this draft is so maybe trade one of the first round picks for multiple 3rd and 4th round picks?

Well, right now we have a hole in the middle of our defense. He not only commanded double teams and allowed Armstead to take advantage, he was also very durable. Armstead had injury issues first 3 seasons but the last two years was durable finally. Hope it stays that way. I understand why they had to do what they did. He is no Watt or Donald, but I believe he's the 3rd best DT in the NFL and they will miss him. I will be paying close attention at what DTs are on board for that 13th overall pick. They can trade back out of the 31st. But we need a DT right now. The only in good one I like in free agency in Shelby Harris (Broncos). But even he is a downgrade, although he's coming off a good season.

[CrimsonCrew]

His stats were down compared to other years. He didn't have the benefit of playing along side a DT who would soak up blocks -- Jones missed a lot of games.

But essentially he had one year of double-digit sacks, in 2018. In 2019, with Bosa and Armstead commanding a lot of attention, he got 7.5 sacks. He had fewer tackles as well.

Of course you want to keep him but if he really was demanding $20 million per year average, his production didn't justify it.

Now you can argue that he improved production for the other DL players but still, Donald and Watt get their huge contracts because they put up big numbers.

They may need to try to find more space eaters on the inside.

I don't know how deep overall this draft is so maybe trade one of the first round picks for multiple 3rd and 4th round picks?

Well, right now we have a hole in the middle of our defense. He not only commanded double teams and allowed Armstead to take advantage, he was also very durable. Armstead had injury issues first 3 seasons but the last two years was durable finally. Hope it stays that way. I understand why they had to do what they did. He is no Watt or Donald, but I believe he's the 3rd best DT in the NFL and they will miss him. I will be paying close attention at what DTs are on board for that 13th overall pick. They can trade back out of the 31st. But we need a DT right now. The only in good one I like in free agency in Shelby Harris (Broncos). But even he is a downgrade, although he's coming off a good season.

Our DL is still one of the best in the league. We have four first-round picks there, three of whom have lived up to their draft spots - at least at times. We have been adding depth for years. Now we see what it can do. I'm all for adding another DL at some point, but not at 13. They wouldn't have traded Buckner if they intended to turn around and do that. We need to add a WR and DB before even thinking about DT. LT also bears very strong consideration. Frankly, depending upon how the draft shakes out, this is the way I'm leaning at present. It's a very deep WR draft and, like last year, we'll see good players going in the second and third. The CBs aren't great value at 13. Take a LT early, trade back out of 31, then take a WR. Draft for depth in the defensive backfield and at DL on the third day.

[CrimsonCrew]

How much are the 49ers going to invest in WRs when they have so many other positional needs?

Plus they had good offense this year, all based off the running game.

I don't see Kyle opening up the offense to throw it like the Saints do.

I have repeatedly bemoaned the resources they have thrown at the WR position to no avail. Big contract for Garcon. Big-ish extension for Goodwin. Traded up for Pettis. Samuel in the second and Hurd in the third last year. Our third and fourth this past year for Sanders. That's more than we've put to any position other than DL in the recent past.

But at the end of the day, WR is still a position of need. And I think there's a fair argument that our limitations at the position contributed to our SB loss. As with last year, my preference in a deep WR class would be to wait and address other positions first. That said, we don't pick in the second, third, or fourth rounds. I think we're very likely to use one of our first two picks (I still expect us to trade back with one of them) on the position, and I think that's probably the right call. It's just frustrating as it reflects the fact that Goodwin, Pettis, and Hurd are not panning out for us. But you can't fail to address a position because you've drafted unsuccessful players there previously (I'm not giving up on Hurd at this point by any means, but we can't rely on him, either).

[wco81]

I mean we could draft someone like Juedy lets say, with #13.

OK, do we really expect them to give him 80 or 100 targets this year, while not throwing as much to Kittle or Samuel?

Or are we using a fairly high pick for a WR to only give him 50 targets?

I don't know what a #13 pick gets on the rookie contract. How would that compare with what it would take to sign Sanders?

The draft record of this regime is pretty mixed. Bosa worked out great, so did Samuel. But then we have guys like Solomon and Pettis which are huge whiffs.

Maybe they will have better luck trading down rather than trading up or using pretty high picks. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to try to fill positional needs later in the draft.

They'd almost have to game out the entire draft, to see what players other teams are likely to draft and do that for like 5 rounds.

[Samurai]

How much are the 49ers going to invest in WRs when they have so many other positional needs?

Plus they had good offense this year, all based off the running game.

I don't see Kyle opening up the offense to throw it like the Saints do.

I have repeatedly bemoaned the resources they have thrown at the WR position to no avail. Big contract for Garcon. Big-ish extension for Goodwin. Traded up for Pettis. Samuel in the second and Hurd in the third last year. Our third and fourth this past year for Sanders. That's more than we've put to any position other than DL in the recent past.

But at the end of the day, WR is still a position of need. And I think there's a fair argument that our limitations at the position contributed to our SB loss. As with last year, my preference in a deep WR class would be to wait and address other positions first. That said, we don't pick in the second, third, or fourth rounds. I think we're very likely to use one of our first two picks (I still expect us to trade back with one of them) on the position, and I think that's probably the right call. It's just frustrating as it reflects the fact that Goodwin, Pettis, and Hurd are not panning out for us. But you can't fail to address a position because you've drafted unsuccessful players there previously (I'm not giving up on Hurd at this point by any means, but we can't rely on him, either).

Your points about our WR's are certainly valid. While I suppose the odds become bleaker with each passing moment, I am really hoping we find a way to bring back Sanders on a team-friendly deal. Our offense is a run-oriented, ball control offense and I'm not sure a "real" #1 receiver would be as happy in that type of system where they are not as likely to put up huge numbers. Sanders fit extremely well in our scheme, particularly with his willingness to stick his nose in there and block on running plays. He was by all accounts an excellent mentor to our young receivers. If he could provide a reasonable facsimile of what he gave us last year with another year of development for Deebo, the red-zone effectiveness of Bourne, and some positive impact from Hurd, our WRs could be better than last season. I'm hoping we could find a team that will be willing to trade us a late-round pick for Goodwin and maybe a day 2 pick for Pettis.

[wco81]

Interesting, looks like Dallas was the leading team in yardage. They ran more than passed but Prescott still had 4900 yards and they had two WRs with over 1100 yards (Cooper and Gallup). Cobb had 828 yards and they had 4 players with over 83 targets and Elliott had 71 targets.

They weren't the top team in scoring so they must have racked up a lot of yards between the 20s but not converting as many TDs as teams which scored more.

They must have more plays or high possession. Otherwise I don't know that there are that many targets available in the 49ers offense.

Kittle had 107 and Samuel had 81, Sanders had 53, Bourne had 44.

[Jikkle]

I mean we could draft someone like Juedy lets say, with #13.

OK, do we really expect them to give him 80 or 100 targets this year, while not throwing as much to Kittle or Samuel?

Or are we using a fairly high pick for a WR to only give him 50 targets?

I don't know what a #13 pick gets on the rookie contract. How would that compare with what it would take to sign Sanders?

The draft record of this regime is pretty mixed. Bosa worked out great, so did Samuel. But then we have guys like Solomon and Pettis which are huge whiffs.

Maybe they will have better luck trading down rather than trading up or using pretty high picks. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to try to fill positional needs later in the draft.

They'd almost have to game out the entire draft, to see what players other teams are likely to draft and do that for like 5 rounds.

Need someone opposite of Samuel and someone with some speed because that's what will free up Kittle and Samuel to be able to do their things.

Sanders didn't have amazing numbers but he was enough of a threat they defenses couldn't ignore him and that's one reason why I believe Samuel came up strong towards the end of the season.

Shanahan's ultimate goal with the offense is to be a threat to attack every inch of the field and have guys with versatility who can do multiple things to keep defenses guessing.

I think he wants a regular #1 dominant type WR, Taylor to be that regular kind of slot guy, and Samuel and Hurd are guys that he can use his creative juices on line them up in different spots and get them the ball in unique ways. With McKinnon he wants a guy that's as big of threat receiving as he is running.

The Super Bowl window is open so I personally would want them to stand pat at 13 or not move too far from that spot and see if they can flip the 31st for a 2nd and 3rd but I wouldn't be opposed to them picking 31st as well. The roster has some soft spots but it's still a loaded roster and it's a roster that needs impact talent.

[CrimsonCrew]

I mean we could draft someone like Juedy lets say, with #13.

OK, do we really expect them to give him 80 or 100 targets this year, while not throwing as much to Kittle or Samuel?

Or are we using a fairly high pick for a WR to only give him 50 targets?

I don't know what a #13 pick gets on the rookie contract. How would that compare with what it would take to sign Sanders?

The draft record of this regime is pretty mixed. Bosa worked out great, so did Samuel. But then we have guys like Solomon and Pettis which are huge whiffs.

Maybe they will have better luck trading down rather than trading up or using pretty high picks. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to try to fill positional needs later in the draft.

They'd almost have to game out the entire draft, to see what players other teams are likely to draft and do that for like 5 rounds.

I wouldn't expect any rookie WR to see 100-odd targets next year. At least on this team. But that doesn't mean it's not a move worth making. 13th isn't a spot where you're expecting elite WR play, though it would be nice to get it of course.

I glanced at these two mock earlier today, and they present contrasting scenarios for 13. You can use the tabs to click through the three-round mock by Chad Reuter and the one-round mock by Bucky Brooks.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102631/article/threeround-2020-nfl-mock-draft-20-trades-shake-up-round-1

Reuter's mock has a mini run on WR, with Lamb and Jeudy both going. But only one OT goes. In this scenario, I'd probably go Jedrick Willis or Andrew Thomas at 13 (haven't really even considered guys this high in the draft at this point, so I don't have an opinion as between those two). Or even Wirfs. If Brooks has it right, and the OTs are gone, it would be hard to pass on our choice of WR (presumably Jeudy or Lamb). Otherwise, I think we strongly consider shopping the pick. Especially if there's a team looking to move up for the last of the top QBs.

Just an observation/side note. Brooks has CJ Henderson going 15th. Reuter has him going 57th. WTF???

[CrimsonCrew]

I mean we could draft someone like Juedy lets say, with #13.

OK, do we really expect them to give him 80 or 100 targets this year, while not throwing as much to Kittle or Samuel?

Or are we using a fairly high pick for a WR to only give him 50 targets?

I don't know what a #13 pick gets on the rookie contract. How would that compare with what it would take to sign Sanders?

The draft record of this regime is pretty mixed. Bosa worked out great, so did Samuel. But then we have guys like Solomon and Pettis which are huge whiffs.

Maybe they will have better luck trading down rather than trading up or using pretty high picks. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to try to fill positional needs later in the draft.

They'd almost have to game out the entire draft, to see what players other teams are likely to draft and do that for like 5 rounds.

Oh, and last year's 13th pick, Christian Wilkins, has upcoming cap hits of $3.5, 4.2, and 4.9 million over the next three years. I'd expect our pick to come in around $3.2, 3.9, 4.7, and 5.3 million over the first four seasons. That's probably half of what Sanders will cost.

[CrimsonCrew]

How much are the 49ers going to invest in WRs when they have so many other positional needs?

Plus they had good offense this year, all based off the running game.

I don't see Kyle opening up the offense to throw it like the Saints do.

I have repeatedly bemoaned the resources they have thrown at the WR position to no avail. Big contract for Garcon. Big-ish extension for Goodwin. Traded up for Pettis. Samuel in the second and Hurd in the third last year. Our third and fourth this past year for Sanders. That's more than we've put to any position other than DL in the recent past.

But at the end of the day, WR is still a position of need. And I think there's a fair argument that our limitations at the position contributed to our SB loss. As with last year, my preference in a deep WR class would be to wait and address other positions first. That said, we don't pick in the second, third, or fourth rounds. I think we're very likely to use one of our first two picks (I still expect us to trade back with one of them) on the position, and I think that's probably the right call. It's just frustrating as it reflects the fact that Goodwin, Pettis, and Hurd are not panning out for us. But you can't fail to address a position because you've drafted unsuccessful players there previously (I'm not giving up on Hurd at this point by any means, but we can't rely on him, either).

Your points about our WR's are certainly valid. While I suppose the odds become bleaker with each passing moment, I am really hoping we find a way to bring back Sanders on a team-friendly deal. Our offense is a run-oriented, ball control offense and I'm not sure a "real" #1 receiver would be as happy in that type of system where they are not as likely to put up huge numbers. Sanders fit extremely well in our scheme, particularly with his willingness to stick his nose in there and block on running plays. He was by all accounts an excellent mentor to our young receivers. If he could provide a reasonable facsimile of what he gave us last year with another year of development for Deebo, the red-zone effectiveness of Bourne, and some positive impact from Hurd, our WRs could be better than last season. I'm hoping we could find a team that will be willing to trade us a late-round pick for Goodwin and maybe a day 2 pick for Pettis.

The question for me is whether we are a run first, ball control offense because that's what Shanahan wants to be, because he doesn't trust our QB, or because we don't have the receivers. Or some other reason I'm not thinking of. In Matt Ryan's MVP season under Shanahan, they threw 534 times and ran 421. That includes 35 "rushes" by Ryan that I'm fairly confident were not called runs. Julio Jones saw 129 targets. So there's no reason to think we couldn't very easily turn into that sort of offense if we had the pieces to do so.

I wouldn't have a huge problem with bringing back Samuel for the right price. We have a lot of young players on the roster, and it would afford them another year to grow. But if we're staring at an impact WR at 13 or 31 - or if we trade back - it would be really hard for me to pass on that.

I don't think Pettis has much trade value at all at this point. Goodwin might have some because of his elite speed and his fairly reasonable cap number, but it would be a very late pick after the season he just had.

[CrimsonCrew]

I mean we could draft someone like Juedy lets say, with #13.

OK, do we really expect them to give him 80 or 100 targets this year, while not throwing as much to Kittle or Samuel?

Or are we using a fairly high pick for a WR to only give him 50 targets?

I don't know what a #13 pick gets on the rookie contract. How would that compare with what it would take to sign Sanders?

The draft record of this regime is pretty mixed. Bosa worked out great, so did Samuel. But then we have guys like Solomon and Pettis which are huge whiffs.

Maybe they will have better luck trading down rather than trading up or using pretty high picks. I don't know if this draft is deep enough to try to fill positional needs later in the draft.

They'd almost have to game out the entire draft, to see what players other teams are likely to draft and do that for like 5 rounds.

Need someone opposite of Samuel and someone with some speed because that's what will free up Kittle and Samuel to be able to do their things.

Sanders didn't have amazing numbers but he was enough of a threat they defenses couldn't ignore him and that's one reason why I believe Samuel came up strong towards the end of the season.

Shanahan's ultimate goal with the offense is to be a threat to attack every inch of the field and have guys with versatility who can do multiple things to keep defenses guessing.

I think he wants a regular #1 dominant type WR, Taylor to be that regular kind of slot guy, and Samuel and Hurd are guys that he can use his creative juices on line them up in different spots and get them the ball in unique ways. With McKinnon he wants a guy that's as big of threat receiving as he is running.

The Super Bowl window is open so I personally would want them to stand pat at 13 or not move too far from that spot and see if they can flip the 31st for a 2nd and 3rd but I wouldn't be opposed to them picking 31st as well. The roster has some soft spots but it's still a loaded roster and it's a roster that needs impact talent.

Totally agree with the bold above. This is where the Hurd pick kind of kills me. He's an intriguing player, especially in this scheme, but there were a lot of question marks around him coming out and I think we pretty clearly reached for him. In the second round, I was urging the team to pass on Deebo in part because I was confident we could trade back and still get him, or we could get someone like Terry McLaurin in the third (I think I said that in the draft thread shortly before we took Samuel). Now, having drafted Samuel, I wasn't inclined to go WR again in the third (to be fair, I think I wanted Amani Oruwariye, who lasted until like the fifth). But if I had to make a pick at that position, I absolutely would have taken McLaurin over Hurd. It wasn't even a close call for me. McLaurin and Samuel would have made a great starting tandem, very different guys, but complementary in what they do. So that's going to be a constant source of frustration for the next several years unless Hurd blows up.

In terms of using the draft picks, I think 13 should have a lot of value in terms of talent at positions of need, but I'd definitely listen to offers. Especially if there's a QB teams are looking at there. 31 seems like a good spot to trade back as teams like that fifth-year option and the talent there isn't a clear match for our needs, but now that we'll add two likely starters with our first two picks - and retained Ward - I don't feel as much urgency to move back. Got to take the draft as it comes to us.

[CrimsonCrew]

Another mock from NFL.com - this one brand new and accounting for FA - that generates some interesting questions for that 13th pick.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001107112/article/lance-zierlein-nfl-mock-draft-20-dolphins-go-get-joe-burrow

Niners take Kinlaw to replace Buckner. Certainly from a positional standpoint, I like the guys who go with the next three picks better (OT Thomas, WR Ruggs, CB Henderson).

[Yoshi]

This was a tough move as DeFo was not only one of my favorite players from this Niner group, but also the most dominant force as far as the defense goes. A lof of the other cats on the line got the sacks, but DeFo consistently got the double teams. Now you have to rely on a committee of players from ST (doubt it), DJ Jones (holds his own on the run but not the same impact player with pressuring the QB), Kentavious Street (too unknown, too raw), et al. The Niners defense was probably going to regress this year as history shows defenses tend to show that trend, but they are definitely going to regress now that they lost arguably their best or second best defender on the team.

On a positive note, getting a first round pick in a solid draft was huge. They were also able to resign AA and Ward (still have my reservations on these 2, but at least they kept most of the team intact), and didn't let DeFo walk for nothing (great player but no way could this team afford his 20+ million per year cap hit).

With that being said, I fully expect the Niners to trade down from either pick and get some of those mid rounders back. A lot depends on what they are looking for, and although I really want a DB drafted early (too much uncertainty with Witherspoon and an aging Uncle Sherm), I just get this feeling they'll draft a WR. That kinda pisses me off considering this team has had an issue finding a WR thru the draft (besides Deebo) despite numerous draft picks being spent on that position. With the current group, Taylor is always injured, Hurd is an uncertainty with that back issue, Goodwin is probably gone, and Pettis has no heart. In that sense it would make sense for the Niners to go that route. Getting an OT and a CB/S would be the other pressing issues but I can see either Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs wearing Red and Gold, with Jeudy or Ruggs being the more likely scenario.

[NinerSickness]

Buck was the best player on the entire team. This is an overhaul kind of move.

Only makes sense if they trade Jimmy as well.

[CrimsonCrew]

Defense is much more volatile than offense from year to year. And DT isn't an impact position according to the analytics. This trade stings, and we may regret the Armstead contact in three or four years, but it's a smart trade if we want our window to last more than next year.