thesack12 wrote:CrimsonCrew wrote:
Jimmy is absolutely a big part of our offensive success during the 2019 and 2021 seasons. Of course he is, he's the QB. But he plays in a QB-friendly system that is predicated on getting the ball to playmakers in space and letting them make the plays. And he's done so with Kittle and Samuel, who are two of the most unique YAC players in NFL history, playing almost full seasons both years.
You contrast 2019 and 2021 with Mullens' performance in 2020, which is fair...except when it's not.
To begin, Mullens only attempted just over half of the passes that season. Jimmy started six games that year and had the lowest completion percentage (67.1), YPA (7.8), and TD to INT ratio (7 to 5) of that three-year span, and CJ Beathard attempted 104 passes. Then you have to consider the supporting cast.
In 2020, Kittle only played in one of Mullens' starts. He put up 15 receptions on 15 targets for 183 yards and a TD in that one game, which was by far his best game of that season and probably the third-best of his career. Keep in mind that in eight starts with Mullens at QB in 2018, Kittle averaged 99 yards a game and had three TDs (he's never had more than six in a season, and had two in his other eight games that season) on the way to setting the NFL record for TE receiving yards, including games in which he had 210, 149 and 108 receiving yards from Mullens.
Deebo effectively played in only three of Mullens' eight starts in 2020 (he was injured and left the game on the first drive of a fourth). One was Deebo's first game back from an injury which cost him the offseason, and he was pretty quiet (3 for 35). The other two were Deebo's best games in terms of receiving yardage that year (11 of 13 for 133 and 6 of 9 for 73).
For that matter, Mostert only played in four of Mullens' starts, three of them as he was easing back in from injury late in the year. Mullens was playing with rookie Aiyuk and Bourne, and making them look pretty darn good in the process. Aiyuk was looking like the next big thing at WR late that year. And with the exception of the NE game, all of Aiyuk's big games to end that season came with Mullens at QB (he averaged 90.6 YPG and four of his five TDs in the five starts he played with Mullens). Against Seattle, Mullens entered in the 4th quarter, after which Aiyuk racked up 80 yards and a TD in that quarter alone.
So sure, missing arguably his three biggest playmakers on offense for big chunks of the season, Mullens was the primary QB contributor to what was "only" the 11th-most explosive offense in the league. I'm not arguing that Mullens is a better QB than Jimmy. On the contrary, it sure looks to me like this is an offense that is able to generate big plays even with a mediocre talent at QB surrounded by lackluster talent.
No argument that Jimmy has contributed to some big comebacks and crucial drives over his career, but in the two huge games where we needed him to do really anything, he came up completely empty. Like, couldn't even get a first down in multiple tries empty. And sure, there were some big drops by his receivers against GB. But there were also a couple big drops by GB defenders that would have rendered the comeback moot.
In terms of the contracts, again, what bearing do those contracts have on Winston's ability as an NFL QB today? Are you suggesting that, because he was paid less two offseasons ago, you would take guys like Glennon, Gabbert, and Driscoll over him today? If so, okay.... Gotta question your judgment. And if not, then how does that information support your argument in any way?
I haven't done a 2020 health refresher search but I do know that on top of being hobbled himself with the ankle Jimmy didn't exactly have a full deck last season either. Off the top of my head I remember Deebo missing like 1/2 the season overall including being out the first few games leading to having to start Bourne/Taylor against Arizona in week 1. I remember Mostert being constantly in and out all season. It also seems like Kittle had multiple stints on IR. As for specifics on what games/who was working their way back into form and when /etc I'll defer to you as you clearly have a better memory than me or looked into it.
No argument that Jimmy has contributed to some big comebacks and crucial drives over his career, but in the two huge games where we needed him to do really anything, he came up completely empty. Like, couldn't even get a first down in multiple tries empty. And sure, there were some big drops by his receivers against GB. But there were also a couple big drops by GB defenders that would have rendered the comeback moot.
I wanted to touch on these thoughts directly. First off again, I will say that Jimmy absolutely deserves criticism for crunch time performance in the 2 games you are talking about. Its not even debatable. However, one thing I don't understand is how the defense gets basically a free pass for giving up a 10 point lead with 8.5 minutes left in the Super Bowl. That's not acceptable. Defense allowed a 83 yard TD drive in only 2.5 minutes. Then a 65 yard TD drive again in only 2.5 minutes, which got KC the lead. Defense was supposed to be elite and the backbone of that team. They had the luxury to spot KC the 1 TD down the stretch, they just had to make them burn some clock to get it and not allow any big quick strike like plays. Yet they failed in both regards.
9ers up 20-10 with 8:33 remaining:
3rd & 15 Gave up a 44 yard bomb to Hill
3rd &10 from the 21, Moore commits a PI in the end zone. Next play KC easily scores from the 1
9ers up 20-17 with 5:10 remaining:
2nd & & gave up a 38 yard bomb to Watkins which goes down to the 10
3rd & Goal from the 5, defense can't force the FG attempt that would have only tied the game, instead Chiefs go up 24-20
Defense choked, period. It just doesn't get talked about.
Pertaining to the underlined part, this type of sentiment always baffles me. People want to mitigate everybody else's mistakes, but trumpet Jimmy's mistakes. On one hand I get it, everything funnels back to the QB, which is fine if we are being 100% fair to that. Yet Jimmy gets none of the other side of it. Jimmy takes the brunt of all criticism when things go bad yet he doesn't get any credit when things go well.
Specifically with the "almost" plays. I swear these types of standpoints are only a thing within Jimmy detractor circles. Every QB has throws that almost get picked in most every game but the ball falls harmlessly to the ground. Yet I don't see anybody else's fan bases holding onto those things so tightly, even when the team ends up winning the damn game anyways. Look at Tartt's terrible butterfingering choke job of missed INT gaffe. That was a godawful decision/throw by Stafford, and if Tartt makes that catch, 9ers could easily be practicing for the Super Bowl right now. Yet, there is basically no talk about Stafford Almost choking that game away. Rams won that game, therefore their fans and most everybody else have all but forgotten about it and moved on.
Despite saying I'm over the Winston talk, I will touch on it briefly based on your rebuttal. It has absolutely nothing to do with what I think Winston's value was nor who I would rather have. That free agency period showed what the NFL thought Winston's value was as the time. He wasn't coming off injury at the time, and was in fact actually coming off leading the NFL in yards. Yet he was met with a very cold market. Apparently nobody wanted to bring him as their starter, nor to compete with their underwhelming current starter. Even for unquestioned backup QB $, he was paid immensely less a lot of those other guys. What his value is today, as I mentioned a few times already we will find that out shortly. Of course now he's coming off the injury, so that will obviously play a factor into his market...
As for your overall points, I hear you believe me I do. Jimmy absolutely has enjoyed system related benefits as well as playmakers gaing YAC. However, the QB is and always will be the vital cog in the machine. Again, I will mention that I'm not trying to say that Jimmy is a great QB (remember I rated him 12th). My biggest point of contention surrounding the Garoppolo criticism is the hordes of people who claim that he's trash. There is quite the difference between not being as good as you would like and being trash. Some people are either incapable or unwilling to make that distinction.
I had to refresh my memory on a lot of the 2020 season stuff. But we suffered a historic number of injuries that year, and the offense kept playing fairly well - granted they were in catchup mode a lot, which will lead to more passing numbers. And despite pretty good numbers overall, Mullens' completion percentage was several ticks low, and his issues often arose on third downs where, you're right, by and large Jimmy has played pretty well throughout his career. As said, I'm not at all arguing that Mullens is the better QB, but it was pretty impressive what he did without his top two receivers and top RB for most of his stretch.
I enjoy these discussions/arguments because, you know, I'm a contentious a-hole who really likes arguing (in the intellectual sense of arguing, not like shouting at each other), but there can be a tendency to almost end up at the extremes when, as in this case, I think we probably view things in a pretty similar light. Based on our conversations over the past few weeks, and even years, I think we would probably rank Jimmy in a similar spot among NFL QBs, and have a pretty similar view of his strengths and weaknesses, but in the course of this discussion it can come off like you love Garoppolo and I hate him, when neither is true.
We had the offense vs. defense discussion out repeatedly after the super bowl, and I think we saw a similar dynamic play out this year in the NFCCG. Did the defense collapse down the stretch? Absolutely. But as with the SB, if you had told me going into the game that we would hold the Rams to 20 points total, and to seven points into the fourth quarter, I would have said we win that game comfortably. In both of those games, the defense struggled at the end (frankly, against the Rams, they struggled throughout the game but still somehow only gave up seven points into the 4th), but the defense really struggled throughout. In both games, despite the defensive shortcomings, literally one decent drive by the offense probably wins the game for us.
And sure, you can (and have) countered that we probably win if the defense makes one additional stop, but again, when evaluating both games as a whole, I would say that the defense vastly exceeded expectations while the offense failed to meet expectations. For that reason, I wouldn't say I give them a pass as such, but I'm much more understanding of their late-game collapse.
As far as the almost plays, you're the one who brought them up in this conversation. And sure, if Jimmy's receivers catch those early balls, especially Kittle, it changes the entire complexion of the game. But if we're going to play the almost game on one side, we've got to play it on the other side, too, and Jimmy threw a bunch of really questionable balls against GB, and put one on Ramsey's chest that should have been a pick-six in a similar situation against the Rams.
That's the aspect of Garoppolo's play that makes him untenable as a longterm solution at QB. As I've said before, you can get by with a guy with a limited arm and athleticism if that guy is locked in and doesn't make mistakes. That's not Jimmy. He makes the same mistakes constantly. I don't know how he throws the INT to Kittle against GB, then comes back and throws two or three more INCREDIBLY risky, late throws outside in that same game. And then he comes back and does the exact same thing against the Rams to almost salt away the game for them when we were still very much alive. And those games came on the heels of one of the worst INTs I've ever seen to give Dallas an improbable chance to come back in that game. The Dallas INT you could maybe chalk up to his injuries - except that we've seen him do that sort of thing repeatedly. Given his limitations, you just can't have those sorts of breakdowns, and Jimmy has never shown an ability to learn from his mistakes in that vein.
Back to Winston, even though I think we've basically done that topic in, I don't disagree that his value was in the trash can in the 2020 offseason. He had a historic year in terms of turning the ball over and making bone-headed plays. As memory serves, there were questions about his maturity. And I don't really know the extent to which he answered those questions. What I do know is that, when he had a chance to play this year in a friendly system - though with mediocre talent at best (and that only because of Kamara) - he was a lot less mistake-prone and he led his team to a lot of success. As said, he's coming off a major injury, and it was a short span of games. That team is undergoing a tectonic shift (new head coach, they're going to have to absolutely deconstruct the roster just to get under the cap, etc.), so his future is even less certain. But I do think the guy has a lot of upside for someone who was, as you note, basically an afterthought two offseasons ago. He's way more of a gamble than Jimmy at this point, but he's got more upside if he can continue to play as he did this year.
