I hesitate to even post this, knowing how at least one person will react, but one guy's QB ranking, with Purdy coming in at 16:
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-top-quarterbacks-patrick-mahomes-josh-allen-justin-herbert-lamar-jackson/A few thoughts. (UPDATE: this turned into a lot of thoughts. I'm not well....)
First, it gets pretty difficult to parse guys the higher you go. These are all really good QBs, and you can't really divorce them from their situations. People - especially people who don't watch a lot of these players - will naturally elevate physical ability over mental acumen. Still, 16 seems hard to justify to me.
A lot is made of Purdy's supporting cast. And yes, it's very good. But which of these guys at or near the top doesn't have a really good supporting cast? Purdy's interior OL - and really his entire OL outside of Williams - is at best ordinary. So sure, he may have the best collection of skill players, though it's close with a few of these guys, but I would argue he has one of the worst OLs among the top contenders. And that never seems to be considered in looking at his supporting cast. People see Williams and the skill players and conclude it's a rock solid group. I assure you, it's not.
In terms of specific players that stood out (in relation to Purdy or overall ranking or rationale), Purdy is one spot above Mayfield. Mayfield has been a solid player, but he doesn't have much more arm talent than Purdy and Purdy is probably more mobile. And he's just demonstrably not nearly as good. He regularly doesn't come through in the clutch.
15) Kyler Murray. He has physical talent, but he doesn't see the field nearly as well a Purdy, and as a result hasn't had nearly the success Purdy has. Maybe that changes with Marvin Harrison and an improved roster overall, but I think it's a stretch to have him above Purdy. At least he's one guy who hasn't had a great cast around him.
14) Jalen Hurts. Another guy who clearly has physical talent. And he's at least brought his team to the threshold. But he kind of fell apart last year. Definitely some of that could be attributed to injuries, especially late in the year. But for a guy without a ton of track record, I think there's a strong argument he needs to prove it again to be ahead of some others. Granted I would personally have him higher than he is. Also another guy with an incredible supporting cast.
13) Jared Goff??? Seriously? Look, Goff is actually an underrated player. He's got a good arm. He's accurate. He's fairly smart. But he simply cannot play under pressure. You want to talk supporting casts? This year he had probably a top-3 OL, was throwing to an elite WR, had a borderline elite TE who came on down the stretch, and probably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the league. And maybe he beats the Niners in the NFCCG if his receivers make one or two more catches, but he also choked in crunch time when the pressure was getting home. He scored zero points in the second half of his last game, until it was under a minute and his team was down 10. The flip side of the Niners' great comeback was Detroit being unable to score, though some of that at least is on Campbell. With the Rams, he was very much along for the ride with an incredible run game and elite defense.
12) Kirk Cousins. A very good QB who is still a half-step behind the best, and who hasn't been able to get it done when it counts. His supporting cast is also very good, with an elite WR and TE, though his OL hasn't always been great. He sees it, he can make the throws, but he just hasn't been able to get over the hump with signature wins when it counts.
11) Dak Prescott? Come on. Again, good QB. He is somewhat more physically limited than others on this list, but he's got more than enough talent to play at a high level. And in the regular season, he has crushed it. But how can you rank a guy with his degree of playoff collapses over others on this list? Not for me.
10) Trevor Lawrence. This might be the biggest surprise. I'm going to do a deeper dive on this one since it's hard for me to reconcile with what we've seen from him.
Look, Lawrence is very talented. And you could argue his supporting cast wasn't as good as others on this list last year. And sure, he was banged up down the stretch this past year. But let's consider that schedule differential (8-3, then 0-5 down the stretch). In the 8-3 run, he beat the Bills at home 25-20, the Steelers on the road 20-10, and the Texans on the road 24-21. Those were the three playoff teams he beat last season. The three losses were by more than one score to KC, HOU, and us, and the latter two were blowouts. During the losing streak, he dropped games to the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Bucs, and Titans. So it sure seems like he drew most of the tough games late in the year.
He had a solid game against the Bills (315 and a TD, no INTs), but nothing phenomenal. The ground game accounted for 196 yards and 2 TDs (he had 31 yards). He also fumbled three times and lost two. The team had two nice drives toward the end of the game to put them in the lead, but the run game did the heavy lifting. The first drive ended with Etienne runs of 10, 11, and 6 yards for a TD. Tough to credit him too much when he didn't attempt a pass in the red zone. On the next, Etienne scored on a 35-yard run. In fact, in both drives, he accounted for only 74 yards (168 yards total). And when they had a chance to put the game away late, they ran it three times and did not convert (tough to fault them for running it given the recent success).
Against the Steelers, Pickett got injured shortly before halftime. Boswell hit a 55-yarder that would have made it 9-6, but it was nullified by a false start and he missed the 61-yarder. Trubisky came in, put up a passer rating of 51 in the second half, and they lost 20-10. Against the Texans, he had a good game, but turtled up late, producing only three points in the fourth quarter and ending the last two drives with a nine-yard drive that resulted in a missed 55-yard FG attempt (Houston didn't pick up a fourth down) and 29-yard drive for a punt (he was 1 of 3 for 6 yards). Houston got the ball back with three minutes left down by three, but missed their own long FG. And then his team went down the crapper against a lineup of good teams.
When he made the playoffs in 2022, he was downright awful to start his first playoff game, against the Chargers, but bounced back to have a big-time performance and a win. Then he struggled a bit in a loss to the Chiefs. Lawrence could be one of the better QBs in the league at some point, but he's not nearly there yet. Top-10 is generous for a guy who just hasn't gotten it done. Though again, not a great cast.
9) Aaron Rodgers. I mean, on legacy, sure. Today? I don't know. If ever there was a dude who needs to prove it on the field before resuming this spot, it's him. Serious injury, he's old, maybe crazy, and we haven't seen him play with this new team. He still put up good numbers in 2022, but well off his pace from former seasons: fewest yards of his healthy seasons, second-worst YPA of his career, tied for worst TDs, and worst INTs outside of his first year as a starter. Lowest passer rating of his career, and lowest QBR by 17 points. I think it's far from a guarantee he bounces back to be one of the elites.
8) Jordan Love. This is a real surprise, too. Seems high for a guy who only has one successful season and collapsed down the stretch in the playoffs himself. Very talented player who was a bit of a revelation in his first season as the starter, especially as he was playing with a very young supporting cast. He absolutely blew out the Cowboys on the road in the playoffs. Though we all know what that's worth. But I would argue we need to see more of him. Teams will be better prepared to defend him this year. And make no mistake: the Niners only made the SB this year because he collapsed down the stretch. He was awful in the last few drives of the playoff game against the Niners, while Purdy stepped up and played his best ball of the game. If Purdy had a similar playoff collapse, people would be saying it was all a mirage and he doesn't belong in the league.
Skipping a few here that are tough to argue with.
5) CJ Stroud. Look, really promising player. And maybe he's already on the mountain top. But it feels pretty early to have him here. He took an awful team and brought them to relevance startlingly quickly. But he also has an awesome coach. Like Love, when last we saw him, he was floundering against the Ravens. And certainly Purdy had a similarly awful (frankly a lot worse) performance against the Ravens, but this was a rematch and a playoff game. He had 5.3 YPA for no TDs. He just...didn't do anything. I think you've got to knock a guy for that.
4) Justin Herbert. Really, really talented. But fourth? For a guy who has made the playoffs once in four years? And in that one game, lost to Lawrence when Lawrence threw four picks? Mustered only 273 yards and a TD against a mediocre D? Come on. Based on projection, you could argue putting him up here. But I need to see more from a guy to rank him this high. Especially when he wasn't elite in big games in college. Going a little deeper here, too.
Herbert was 2-1 in bowl games, but he didn't perform well in those games. He lost his first one 38-28 to 25th-ranked Boise State. He threw for 233 yards, two TDs and two INTs. His team had two pick-sixes and he still lost by 10. The offense didn't generate points until there were ten minutes left in the game (and 67 first-half yards), and only scored a second time with one minute left trailing by 17. He won his second bowl game 7-6 against unranked Michigan State - he threw for 166 yards and one TD.
And he beat 8th-ranked Wisconsin 28-27, but he threw for 138 yards, no TDs, and an INT (to be fair, he ran for three TDs). I didn't watch this one, seems like an odd one. Oregon scored 28 and won despite generating 204 yards of total offense. Glancing at the box score and play-by-play, they had one long TD drive (75 yards) to start the game. After that, they went INT, punt (0 yards on the drive), punt (4 yards), punt (-3 yards), punt (2 yards), downs (9 yards) before mustering a TD off an INT (Herbert threw for 15 yards, RB for 13, then Herbert for five-yard TD run). In the second half, they punted three times (drives of seven, 25, and four yards) and had a TD on a one-play, Herbert TD run (30 yards). Just bizarre.
Broadening the scope beyond bowl games, his career is just a weird one. In 2019, he knocked off #5 Utah, but he threw for 193 yards and a TD while his RB went for 208 yards and three TDs. His best game was a 35-31 win against #25 Washington where he threw for 280 yards and 4 TDs. That's the closest thing he had to a signature win. And again, just a weird game. Long TD drive to start, then three three-and-outs followed by a punt after five plays. After that, he got into more of a groove.
So yeah, Herbert is super talented. And he's played well in the league. But he's a guy who struggled to find signature wins against good competition in college, and the same trend has continued in the pros. I need a guy to do that to rank him fourth overall.
3) Joe Burrow. Less to quibble with here as Burrow has won a lot more than Herbert. He's a really talented QB. But I don't know that his ceiling is all that much higher than Purdy's. He's physically talented, with a good if not great arm and solid athleticism, but at the end of the day, you're probably talking two or three throws again that he makes that Purdy cannot. He also has a very good supporting cast, though his OL might be the worst of the guys who are at the top of this list and have had actual NFL success other than Purdy. Ultimately, I can't think of a guy who deserves this spot more.
