CONTRACT EXTENSIONS ON HORIZON

[49er4life1979]

Some contract extensions coming up on the horizon for the Niners in 2024 - mostly draft picks from 2021 as well as couple other guys, let me know what you guys think: in order of importance

1. Brandon Aiyuk - No. 1 priority, but can they afford him? 5th year option exercised but no way he reports without new contract.

2. Dre Greenlaw - has one year left on contract, would sure suck to lose him.

3. Deommodore Lenoir - One of my faves. Can play outside or inside which makes him valuable. Opposing QBs dont target him much. I can see Niners extending him by 2 or 3 years, especially with Wilks as DC.

4. Aaron Banks - solid player, but Niners don't prioritize OL so he will likely play out his contract and we'll see what happens in 2025.

5. Talanoa Hufanga - would have been #4 on the list before the injury. Will play out contract.

[CrimsonCrew]

Some contract extensions coming up on the horizon for the Niners in 2024 - mostly draft picks from 2021 as well as couple other guys, let me know what you guys think: in order of importance

1. Brandon Aiyuk - No. 1 priority, but can they afford him? 5th year option exercised but no way he reports without new contract.

2. Dre Greenlaw - has one year left on contract, would sure suck to lose him.

3. Deommodore Lenoir - One of my faves. Can play outside or inside which makes him valuable. Opposing QBs dont target him much. I can see Niners extending him by 2 or 3 years, especially with Wilks as DC.

4. Aaron Banks - solid player, but Niners don't prioritize OL so he will likely play out his contract and we'll see what happens in 2025.

5. Talanoa Hufanga - would have been #4 on the list before the injury. Will play out contract.

Got to add Chase to that list, now. One of the big questions this offseason may very well be Chase vs. Aiyuk. Lots of reasons to favor Aiyuk. He's got history with the team, he's clearly our best natural receiver, and he's a competitor. Chase has the physical tools, but he also had injury issues and some question about his passion and commitment.

Based on those factors, it would be an easy decision, seemingly. But there's more to it than that. It's harder to find elite pass-rushing production than WR production. There's also the question of compensation. There's a good chance we could trade Aiyuk for a first or second round pick in the 2024 draft. If Chase walks, short of franchising and trading him, best we could do is a third-round comp pick.

As of now, I still lean Aiyuk pretty strongly, but if Chase continues to play well and the D looks different with him in there, it will become a much harder call.

[wco81]

Thing about Chase, I don't know if he's got that many sacks or pressures or QB hits.

But the DL as a whole has been far more productive since his arrival. So it may be that he's having impact in ways not reflected in his stats.

I think they said in the 3 games, team has had 15 sacks, so 5 sacks a game.

[CrimsonCrew]

Thing about Chase, I don't know if he's got that many sacks or pressures or QB hits.

But the DL as a whole has been far more productive since his arrival. So it may be that he's having impact in ways not reflected in his stats.

I think they said in the 3 games, team has had 15 sacks, so 5 sacks a game.

Sacks aren't a great metric. They tend to be somewhat fluky and affected by other factors. Was it a coverage sack? Did another player get initial pressure and flush the QB into a player who "lost" the rep? Was it an effort/pursuit play rather than winning on the initial rush? There's also the question of whether a guy is eating up double-teams and allowing his teammates to capitalize on less attention. Pressures tend to be much more stable and indicative of performance than sacks. They're also inherently more subjective, but certainly better than looking just at sacks, where there can be tremendous volatility from year-to-year.

I'm having trouble finding pressure numbers. I know before the trade he was fairly high, but am not sure where he falls since. I know he's been in the area several times. He's definitely not Bosa. He has talent, but he doesn't have the refinement. He needs to develop his pass rush arsenal. Definitely not saying we need to bring him back, just bringing up some considerations for this offseason that could lead to a surprising decision.

[wco81]

Hawks forum was really down on Geno for deer in headlights syndrome and taking sacks instead of throwing the ball. One said doesn’t matter if he throws picks, better than holding it so long and taking sacks vs. 49ers.

They did I a great job of collapsing pocket, discouraging Smith from breaking the pocket.

Whole different kettle of fish vs. Smith next Sunday though. Even when their pass rush was strong in previous seasons, fast QBs caused them problems especially containing them in pocket. Young has the speed 49ers pass rushers never had so hopefully he can chase Hurts down if such situations arise.

[CrimsonCrew]

Re: Chase's stat line, good review of his impact going beyond the box score starting at 23:00 here:

Watch on YouTube

[49er4life1979]

I hope Chase does good and elevates our DL. But I don't want him pricing his way out of here lol!

[thesack12]

RE Chase Young:

He still has a chance to change the tune with a strong playoff run but As it currently stands, short of him signing a super cheap 1 year contract, I really don't have much desire to bring him back. He has not really added any juice to the pass rush, and is mostly invisible while he's out there.

He's played 8 games on 54% of the snaps for SF: 1 pass defended, 8 tackles (1 tackle for less), 2.5 sacks, and only 7 total QB pressures.

So he's averaging 1 tackle and less than 1 pressure per game. Those are as pedestrian numbers as they come.

For comparison Drake Jackson played 8 games on 33% of the snaps this season with 1 pass defended, 7 tackles (2 TFL's), 3 sacks, and 8 total QB pressures.

While all 3 of Jackson's sacks game in week 1 against the Steelers, still there really isn't much of a difference in the tangible production rate of Young and Jackson. Despite Jackson playing quite a bit lower percentage of the snaps.

Perhaps, some of what Young provides doesn't reflect in the box scores or show out in the TV feeds. Maybe he eats up blocks and allows teammates to get one on ones and favorable matchups. Still, that doesn't seem to be showing up either. The D-line has been a pretty big disappointment, and the eye test shows that they consistently struggle to both rush the passer and stop the run.

Maybe the knee injury from a couple year's ago is still hampering him, but it sure looks like Young is pretty over-rated. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if his next contract he gets from another team puts the comp pick formula less than the 3rd round pick he cost in trade.

Most of us thought he would fetch a compensatory 3rd thus washing out the trade cost. Maybe some other team will talk themselves into his name brand appeal and overpay him. However, I think most teams will consider his lack of production despite playing on the same line as an elite pass rusher in Bosa and take him for his current face value.

[CrimsonCrew]

RE Chase Young:

He still has a chance to change the tune with a strong playoff run but As it currently stands, short of him signing a super cheap 1 year contract, I really don't have much desire to bring him back. He has not really added any juice to the pass rush, and is mostly invisible while he's out there.

He's played 8 games on 54% of the snaps for SF: 1 pass defended, 8 tackles (1 tackle for less), 2.5 sacks, and only 7 total QB pressures.

So he's averaging 1 tackle and less than 1 pressure per game. Those are as pedestrian numbers as they come.

For comparison Drake Jackson played 8 games on 33% of the snaps this season with 1 pass defended, 7 tackles (2 TFL's), 3 sacks, and 8 total QB pressures.

While all 3 of Jackson's sacks game in week 1 against the Steelers, still there really isn't much of a difference in the tangible production rate of Young and Jackson. Despite Jackson playing quite a bit lower percentage of the snaps.

Perhaps, some of what Young provides doesn't reflect in the box scores or show out in the TV feeds. Maybe he eats up blocks and allows teammates to get one on ones and favorable matchups. Still, that doesn't seem to be showing up either. The D-line has been a pretty big disappointment, and the eye test shows that they consistently struggle to both rush the passer and stop the run.

Maybe the knee injury from a couple year's ago is still hampering him, but it sure looks like Young is pretty over-rated. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if his next contract he gets from another team puts the comp pick formula less than the 3rd round pick he cost in trade.

Most of us thought he would fetch a compensatory 3rd thus washing out the trade cost. Maybe some other team will talk themselves into his name brand appeal and overpay him. However, I think most teams will consider his lack of production despite playing on the same line as an elite pass rusher in Bosa and take him for his current face value.

It will be interesting to see. I do think his impact has gone beyond the box score to a degree. Our pass rush has improved since he came in, with Hargrave in particular improving his pass rushing success even with Armstead missing significant time. And Chase was a pro bowl alternate, somewhat surprisingly. He's probably done enough to price himself out of our range, but tougher question in terms of what he'll return. I agree a third is somewhat unlikely (to be fair, I don't think anyone EXPECTED him to net a third, just that it was on the table), but it may depend on who else is available. Teams are always willing to pay for pass rush. I think a fourth-round comp pick is still very much in play.

[wco81]

He was in the 49ers building so watch Seattle sign him.

[thesack12]

RE Chase Young:

He still has a chance to change the tune with a strong playoff run but As it currently stands, short of him signing a super cheap 1 year contract, I really don't have much desire to bring him back. He has not really added any juice to the pass rush, and is mostly invisible while he's out there.

He's played 8 games on 54% of the snaps for SF: 1 pass defended, 8 tackles (1 tackle for less), 2.5 sacks, and only 7 total QB pressures.

So he's averaging 1 tackle and less than 1 pressure per game. Those are as pedestrian numbers as they come.

For comparison Drake Jackson played 8 games on 33% of the snaps this season with 1 pass defended, 7 tackles (2 TFL's), 3 sacks, and 8 total QB pressures.

While all 3 of Jackson's sacks game in week 1 against the Steelers, still there really isn't much of a difference in the tangible production rate of Young and Jackson. Despite Jackson playing quite a bit lower percentage of the snaps.

Perhaps, some of what Young provides doesn't reflect in the box scores or show out in the TV feeds. Maybe he eats up blocks and allows teammates to get one on ones and favorable matchups. Still, that doesn't seem to be showing up either. The D-line has been a pretty big disappointment, and the eye test shows that they consistently struggle to both rush the passer and stop the run.

Maybe the knee injury from a couple year's ago is still hampering him, but it sure looks like Young is pretty over-rated. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if his next contract he gets from another team puts the comp pick formula less than the 3rd round pick he cost in trade.

Most of us thought he would fetch a compensatory 3rd thus washing out the trade cost. Maybe some other team will talk themselves into his name brand appeal and overpay him. However, I think most teams will consider his lack of production despite playing on the same line as an elite pass rusher in Bosa and take him for his current face value.

It will be interesting to see. I do think his impact has gone beyond the box score to a degree. Our pass rush has improved since he came in, with Hargrave in particular improving his pass rushing success even with Armstead missing significant time. And Chase was a pro bowl alternate, somewhat surprisingly. He's probably done enough to price himself out of our range, but tougher question in terms of what he'll return. I agree a third is somewhat unlikely (to be fair, I don't think anyone EXPECTED him to net a third, just that it was on the table), but it may depend on who else is available. Teams are always willing to pay for pass rush. I think a fourth-round comp pick is still very much in play.

Yeah, I don't have access to the all 22 so Chase could be having a notable impact beyond what the box scores show.

Still, from the eye test I personally don't see much of a difference, if any, from having Chase on the opposite side of Bosa. 9ers are 17th in both QB pressure % and Sack %, and 27th in QB hurry %. Percentage rates are better metrics as raw counting numbers can vary wildly due to number of plays, etc.

The DL consistently goes through long stretches of disappointing play. The run defense has been eroding. The defense struggles on 3rd & long, which is a pure pass rush situation. The 9ers have played with the lead far more often than not this season, yet the pass rush is still middle of the road.

As I mentioned earlier, there has not been a tangible difference from when Drake Jackson was playing earlier in the season. I realize it was last season with a different DC but you could make a case that Samson Ebukam was a bigger difference maker than what Chase has provided this season.

I'm hopeful Chase, and more importantly the DL overall, rises to the occasion and elevates their play in the playoffs. But as mentioned earlier, at this moment I'm out on resigning Chase Young.

[Samurai]

Aiyuk is the clear top priority here. Chase Young strikes me as a nice to have but not absolutely necessary to have. If he enjoys his teammates as much as he indicates and gives the team a discount to stay, then great. But its not worth losing other key assets just to try and get him to fit under the cap.

[thesack12]

Chase Young was still on the field deep into the 2nd half and long after the defensive bench was emptied.

Has he fallen out of favor and down the depth chart? Or perhaps, I'm thinking too much into it since Chase is technically not a starter.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting list of upcoming free agents league-wide:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

Good news for the Niners is only two of them are our guys: Chase Young at #28 and Kinlaw at #100. I guess that means we aren't likely to clean up on the comp pick market this year, but at least we also won't have to shell out big money to keep anyone - unless they try to keep Young - in the offseason, and should keep the core intact for at least one more season.

DE is a position where we'll need to add bodies, as Young, Ferrell, and Gregory are all slotted to be FAs, I believe. That's 1,071 snaps we'll have to replace, probably on the cheap. Would have been really nice if Drake Jackson could have shown anything at all this season....

[wco81]

Kinlaw seems unlikely to get a big contract from anyone.

In fact he may have to do a shorter term deal.

OTOH:

Mike McGlinchey signed a 5 year, $87,500,000 contract with the Denver Broncos, including a $17,500,000 signing bonus, $52,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $17,500,000.

So that's a deal for a low-end starting RT, still young and drafted high.

How much for a low-end rotation DT? Maybe something like 4-years and $30 million max with only say $20 million guaranteed?

Maybe low-ball that and try something like 4-years $24 million but only $16 million guaranteed?

Then again, I don't even know how many snaps he's gotten this year, especially when Armstead wasn't out.

[CrimsonCrew]

Our biggest need at the DT position is probably a run-stuffer. I'd think we could find a grizzled vet to do a tolerable job of that on a short-term deal for maybe $5-6 million a year.

[49er4life1979]

Our biggest need at the DT position is probably a run-stuffer. I'd think we could find a grizzled vet to do a tolerable job of that on a short-term deal for maybe $5-6 million a year.

I would definitely like to see us address DT in the offseason. Both Hargrave and Armstead are 30 so somebody for the future.