Playoffs, Divisional Round: Packers @ 49ers

[wco81]

Here's a hot take from me on this game.

Looking back on the game while I don't think the defense was great I also don't think it was as bad as it was made out to be.

What I saw there were a handful of really bad plays at bad times which made it feel like the defense was awful.

Take out that 53-yarder from Jones he only has 55 yards on 17 carries which gives him an average of 3 yards a carry. That math carries over for the entire Packers rushing attack at 3 yards a carry if you take that one run off.

While we didn't get sacks we did get pressure and force the issue by making Love move off his spot quite often. It's not like we were allowing him to sit back and slice and dice us back there like Burrow and Cousins were able to do early in the year. I think Love deserves credit handling the pressure and making sure he didn't get sack and made some really nice throws.

They just really need to clean up the PI and if it rains make sure they have the right cleats on and not find out after they slip and give up huge plays.

I would add the 49ers gave up over 100 yards rushing. On some of those outside runs there wasn't a 49er defender to be found. To many third and short opportunities making it much easier on Love to convert on third downs. One of the goals for the defense that game was to force Love into third and long situations. While that is always a goal it was more critical for Love.

Two of their big runs, Bosa and Young were sealed inside by a WR, #13 for Packers. That was good scheme, the 49ers didn’t expect it, the motioned WR blocking big DEs like that.

Chiefs used great shifts of bunched WRs and TEs to get a DB on the outside, who was blown off the ball for big runs vs. Bills yesterday.

The best schemes are being deployed in playoffs.

[Samurai]

Really liked how the offense engineered that last 4th quarter drive. Plenty of time and nothing was forced downfield. Short to medium high percentage passes. They used up enough time that the offense was going to win or lose on that drive. I think there was less than one minute left. Reminds me of the big drives Bill Walsh engineered in the playoffs. During the 1988 Super Bowl the last drive were almost all short to mid range completions to Jerry Rice and Roger Craig who made yards after the catch. The 49ers ate up the clock and left Cincinnati little time to do something once they got the ball back. Still peeved about that bomb Jimmy G attempted to Emannual Sanders in the Super Bowl. Even if he caught it and scored, left too much time for Mahomes to respond.

During the game, there were several dangerous passes Purdy threw that could/should have been intercepted. That did not occur on the last drive as Purdy took what the defense gave him without forcing dangerous passes. I know Purdy has some of that gunslinger mentality but with the game on the line, you need to take care of the ball and just make the completions that move the sticks. Purdy did a great job of that on that last drive.

[CrimsonCrew]

Okay, I've had some time to sit with this one. My thoughts on the game:

Overall, as I said right after the fact, the Niners were really, really lucky to come away with a win in this one. Just a perfect storm of all their issues biting them in the ass at the same time.

A weather game for Purdy. I don't know what exactly the issue is with Purdy, but he's got to figure out how to throw a ball in the rain. It was pretty wet this weekend, but it wasn't like driving rain and wind. It was relatively warm, not very windy, and he just become completely ineffective for almost three quarters with the exception of a couple throws. That can't keep happening. I had hoped they took advantage of the wet week to get in some practice in the conditions, but if so, it didn't show at all.

They lost Deebo almost immediately, and he was clearly supposed to be the zone beater in this one. That hurt, as this game seemed tailor-made for Deebo's skillset. But as a team, you simply cannot let the loss of one player - even a unique player like Deebo - completely derail your game plan. It's like Kyle had no alternative plan, which leads to the next issue...

Bizarre offensive playcalling. They barely seemed to run the ball in the first half, despite Purdy's struggles throwing the ball. Over and over again in the first quarter in particular, they did that dumb motion to split McCaffrey out deep in the backfield. I hate that. One time we used it to score a TD. Other than that, it's been a detriment. We lose the threat of a run, and we keep one of our best weapons and decoys seven yards back from the LOS. And we just did it again and again and again as the offense sputtered. I'm fine to spread the field more at times, but we need to improve the shotgun/dropback game if we're going to do it this much.

The D stepped up when they needed to, but by and large, they simply couldn't get off the field. Only forced a single punt. The DL was invisible for long stretches. It seemed like no one was putting on a counter move, and they were all just bull-rushing. It seems like they get too tentative with mobile guys and just bull rush to keep them in the pocket. I can get that to an extent, but at some point you need to put pressure on the QB. This week will be an interesting comparison point, as Goff is basically a non-threat to run. Will our guys be more active in the pass rush? I sure hope so.

I will say, re: the D, Love hit three or four wide open passes - twice our guy flat-out fell down, and once or twice they had good playcalls to effectively pick the coverage - and he hit two or three really nice, tight-window throws. Other than that, it felt like we did a good job of minimizing his impact. He checked down a ton, and obviously threw the two crucial picks. But Thomas completely reverted. The 3rd and 15 penalty was especially bad, as that was just a wing and a prayer. He had plenty of time to locate the ball and make a play, and instead he just ran right through the WR. The D also did better against the run that it felt like, other than the one 50+ yard rush. They were holding Jones to like a 3.2 YPC average at that point, though he had a big loss on the fumbled pitch.

Kyle got completely passive at the wrong time at the end of the first half. We had a golden opportunity to double them up - at least with FGs - on either side of the half. Instead, he got so damn conservative that we ran out of time. Just completely blew a TO for no apparent purpose but to try to get them to jump. He did the completely predictable line up and try to draw them offsides when there was less time on the game clock than the play clock heading into the two-minute warning. Of all times to fake like we're trying to draw them and then run a play, this was it. On third and two, we let 40 seconds tick away and then burned a TO. Because we didn't have an extra TO, we had to snap the ball on second down after we converted the first down. That ate up time and, more importantly, killed a play. We should have had two or three plays to get two yards, with rushes on the table. Instead, we settled for a 48-yard FG in conditions. That made me crazy.

And then the mistakes on STs. The blocked FG was on Moody. Kick came out too low. Just can't have that. And why are we still not kicking it deep every time? Our coverage units suck every year, and this mistake was almost fatal. We got outplayed on that side of the ball by one of the very few STs units that is statistically worse than we are.

BUT, at the end of the day, we came away with the win. Purdy got it together for that last drive, and the D made the plays they needed to. Big thanks to the GB kicker for that miss, and to Love for just throwing up a duck on second down. Now it's on to Detroit. And we'll have to play a hell of a lot better. Detroit has been playing well lately, but they don't really have that many impressive wins.

But we won't win this one if we can't get to Goff. Goff is one of the easier QBs in the league - at least among the good ones - to rattle. But he's playing behind an awesome OL this year. We need our guys to really show up, especially on the inside, where Jonah Jackson - who has been the weak link on that line - is not expected to play, and Ragnow is playing hurt. Armstead and Hargrave need to show they have a pulse this game. The DL will be huge in this game, as the Lions' offense relies on running the ball and keeping Goff clean. On offense, we have to consistently challenge their secondary. And hope Hutchinson doesn't dominate McKivitz all game.

[CrimsonCrew]

Didn't notice this at the time as I was so stressed, but Jordan Love was awful down the stretch. He threw the TD to Kraft with about 5 minutes remaining in the third quarter - and the wide open conversion to Aaron Jones. From that point on, he completed 6 of 12 passes for 30 yards and two INTs.

The first INT he threw behind an open receiver on 3rd and 11 and the ball was deflected into the air. Later, on 3rd and 2, he threw behind an open Aaron Jones who had the conversion. That ball was almost intercepted, too. Just prior to the FG attempt, he just heaved a ball off his back foot into the middle of the field. Not too close to anyone, but Thomas might have had a shot at an INT if he had any eye for the football at all.

I think Love is a promising young player, and that Packers team could be a headache for years to come. But for all the folks who are piling on Purdy after the game, I'd rather have the dude who buckles down and gets it done in crunch time than the guy who falls apart. Granted this is a single-game sample size, and I'm not saying Purdy and Love ARE those guys, just that they were those guys on this particular night.

[CharityStripe34]

Still have a bit of anxiety from Saturday night, lol.

Overall, for three quarters, they seemed to be trying to lose the game. Sloppy execution and just looked woefully unprepared. It was shaping up to be arguably Shanahan's worst coaching job ever. ESPECIALLY the last four minutes of the first half. Just completely timid and baffling coaching. Niners finally got a good drive on offense, took the lead, got a stop and had a chance to run another good, well-managed drive to take the lead and get points heading into half and Shanahan gets into turtle mode.

The Purdy Rain Game thing needs to stop being a thing. Either practice with or without a glove, but the coaches and QBs have to simulate inclement weather games in practice. No reason the QB is waffling back and forth with a glove, and guys are changing cleats in the middle of a god-damn playoff game.

Hopefully such a grimy win humbles the team and forces them to absolutely take Detroit seriously and not screw around. Detroit is better than GB and can cause problems for this Niners team. I think it's reasonable to expect considerably better preparation and execution this Sunday.

[CrimsonCrew]

I haven't tuned into much of the national media following this game, but my sense is that Love is getting a lot of praise, being called a promising young player, look out for next year, etc. And I'm certainly not saying that isn't deserved. He took a group of completely green pass-catchers and put together a phenomenal second-half to the year. But again, he also choke horribly in the moment of truth, and I don't get the sense that's getting much buzz.

I'm quite confident the narrative would be different if you flipped their stat lines in this particular game. If Purdy started off well but not dazzlingly, and then blew it in the 4th quarter and lost, I think we'd see a lot of press about how he's overrated.

[Yoshi]

Here's a hot take from me on this game.

Looking back on the game while I don't think the defense was great I also don't think it was as bad as it was made out to be.

What I saw there were a handful of really bad plays at bad times which made it feel like the defense was awful.

Take out that 53-yarder from Jones he only has 55 yards on 17 carries which gives him an average of 3 yards a carry. That math carries over for the entire Packers rushing attack at 3 yards a carry if you take that one run off.

While we didn't get sacks we did get pressure and force the issue by making Love move off his spot quite often. It's not like we were allowing him to sit back and slice and dice us back there like Burrow and Cousins were able to do early in the year. I think Love deserves credit handling the pressure and making sure he didn't get sack and made some really nice throws.

They just really need to clean up the PI and if it rains make sure they have the right cleats on and not find out after they slip and give up huge plays.

I would add the 49ers gave up over 100 yards rushing. On some of those outside runs there wasn't a 49er defender to be found. To many third and short opportunities making it much easier on Love to convert on third downs. One of the goals for the defense that game was to force Love into third and long situations. While that is always a goal it was more critical for Love.

Two of their big runs, Bosa and Young were sealed inside by a WR, #13 for Packers. That was good scheme, the 49ers didn’t expect it, the motioned WR blocking big DEs like that.

Chiefs used great shifts of bunched WRs and TEs to get a DB on the outside, who was blown off the ball for big runs vs. Bills yesterday.

The best schemes are being deployed in playoffs.

No offense, but if you're the highest paid defensive player in the league, you have to fight off those types of blocks and make sacks. It's been years since I've been on here (ESPN days with Bingo, Ray, Imac, Dodub, Deep, NinerMind, Crimson, et al), so I'm sure this has been mentioned at some thread, but Bosa has yet to have a postseason sack dating back to last year. This is the type of game where the defensive line has an opportunity to make plays (1) Goff is the least mobile QB left in the postseason (2) Goff has thrown 12 INT's this year and 9 of them have been on the road. With Ambry being Ambry again, the Niners have to overcome a pretty solid offensive line to control that fast paced offense.

In addition, the defense did play much better during GB's last 4 possessions, where Love had only 30 something yards passing, 0 TD's, and 2 INT's. Although the Lions pass defense sucks (their back 7 for the most part is uninspiring especially their outside CB's in Sutton, etc), the Niners need to run the ball despite the Lions ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense per DVOA. Don't get cute Kyle and stick to what you do best.

[CrimsonCrew]

I would add the 49ers gave up over 100 yards rushing. On some of those outside runs there wasn't a 49er defender to be found. To many third and short opportunities making it much easier on Love to convert on third downs. One of the goals for the defense that game was to force Love into third and long situations. While that is always a goal it was more critical for Love.

Two of their big runs, Bosa and Young were sealed inside by a WR, #13 for Packers. That was good scheme, the 49ers didn’t expect it, the motioned WR blocking big DEs like that.

Chiefs used great shifts of bunched WRs and TEs to get a DB on the outside, who was blown off the ball for big runs vs. Bills yesterday.

The best schemes are being deployed in playoffs.

No offense, but if you're the highest paid defensive player in the league, you have to fight off those types of blocks and make sacks. It's been years since I've been on here (ESPN days with Bingo, Ray, Imac, Dodub, Deep, NinerMind, Crimson, et al), so I'm sure this has been mentioned at some thread, but Bosa has yet to have a postseason sack dating back to last year. This is the type of game where the defensive line has an opportunity to make plays (1) Goff is the least mobile QB left in the postseason (2) Goff has thrown 12 INT's this year and 9 of them have been on the road. With Ambry being Ambry again, the Niners have to overcome a pretty solid offensive line to control that fast paced offense.

In addition, the defense did play much better during GB's last 4 possessions, where Love had only 30 something yards passing, 0 TD's, and 2 INT's. Although the Lions pass defense sucks (their back 7 for the most part is uninspiring especially their outside CB's in Sutton, etc), the Niners need to run the ball despite the Lions ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense per DVOA. Don't get cute Kyle and stick to what you do best.

Yoshi! How you doing, man? Been a minute. Good seeing you back. Hope you're here to stay.

[zman1]

I would add the 49ers gave up over 100 yards rushing. On some of those outside runs there wasn't a 49er defender to be found. To many third and short opportunities making it much easier on Love to convert on third downs. One of the goals for the defense that game was to force Love into third and long situations. While that is always a goal it was more critical for Love.

Two of their big runs, Bosa and Young were sealed inside by a WR, #13 for Packers. That was good scheme, the 49ers didn’t expect it, the motioned WR blocking big DEs like that.

Chiefs used great shifts of bunched WRs and TEs to get a DB on the outside, who was blown off the ball for big runs vs. Bills yesterday.

The best schemes are being deployed in playoffs.

No offense, but if you're the highest paid defensive player in the league, you have to fight off those types of blocks and make sacks. It's been years since I've been on here (ESPN days with Bingo, Ray, Imac, Dodub, Deep, NinerMind, Crimson, et al), so I'm sure this has been mentioned at some thread, but Bosa has yet to have a postseason sack dating back to last year. This is the type of game where the defensive line has an opportunity to make plays (1) Goff is the least mobile QB left in the postseason (2) Goff has thrown 12 INT's this year and 9 of them have been on the road. With Ambry being Ambry again, the Niners have to overcome a pretty solid offensive line to control that fast paced offense.

In addition, the defense did play much better during GB's last 4 possessions, where Love had only 30 something yards passing, 0 TD's, and 2 INT's. Although the Lions pass defense sucks (their back 7 for the most part is uninspiring especially their outside CB's in Sutton, etc), the Niners need to run the ball despite the Lions ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense per DVOA. Don't get cute Kyle and stick to what you do best.

But what do we do best? We are 4th in passing yards, 3rd in run yards. Purdy leads in some stat categories, especially 9.6 per attempt. Meanwhile the Lions are the best run defense and nearly the worst pass defense. Pass, Kyle, pass. Although I still expect a pretty even balance as usual, maybe pass heavy to build a lead and more running. Unless it rains I think are passing game will be great.

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[CrimsonCrew]

Two of their big runs, Bosa and Young were sealed inside by a WR, #13 for Packers. That was good scheme, the 49ers didn’t expect it, the motioned WR blocking big DEs like that.

Chiefs used great shifts of bunched WRs and TEs to get a DB on the outside, who was blown off the ball for big runs vs. Bills yesterday.

The best schemes are being deployed in playoffs.

No offense, but if you're the highest paid defensive player in the league, you have to fight off those types of blocks and make sacks. It's been years since I've been on here (ESPN days with Bingo, Ray, Imac, Dodub, Deep, NinerMind, Crimson, et al), so I'm sure this has been mentioned at some thread, but Bosa has yet to have a postseason sack dating back to last year. This is the type of game where the defensive line has an opportunity to make plays (1) Goff is the least mobile QB left in the postseason (2) Goff has thrown 12 INT's this year and 9 of them have been on the road. With Ambry being Ambry again, the Niners have to overcome a pretty solid offensive line to control that fast paced offense.

In addition, the defense did play much better during GB's last 4 possessions, where Love had only 30 something yards passing, 0 TD's, and 2 INT's. Although the Lions pass defense sucks (their back 7 for the most part is uninspiring especially their outside CB's in Sutton, etc), the Niners need to run the ball despite the Lions ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense per DVOA. Don't get cute Kyle and stick to what you do best.

But what do we do best? We are 4th in passing yards, 3rd in run yards. Purdy leads in some stat categories, especially 9.6 per attempt. Meanwhile the Lions are the best run defense and nearly the worst pass defense. Pass, Kyle, pass. Although I still expect a pretty even balance as usual, maybe pass heavy to build a lead and more running. Unless it rains I think are passing game will be great.

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We use the run to set up the pass, though. For this team, right now, I think we need at least the consistent threat of the run to be effective passing the ball. Especially if we don't have Deebo.

I don't mind the occasional empty set to spread out the defense, but don't do it by putting McCaffrey seven yards behind the LOS while eliminating him as a running threat. Motion him at the snap, or put him on the LOS. The empty set with him back off the line has only resulted in a handful of good plays, and what seems like loads of ineffective (or worse) plays. If you want to start using more empty - which is something I've advocated in the past, as opposed to what we used to do with Jimmy and frequently have all eleven guys lined up inside the hashes - then let's really focus on adding a couple WRs this offseason who can complement our starters (the Danny Gray experiment has so far been a big disappointment, as on paper he looked like a nice complementary WR).

Detroit has a shaky pass D, so we'll need Brock to step up. But we can't go completely one-dimensional. That hasn't been a recipe for success for this team. Tampa bay was very pass-heavy, but they still ran the ball effectively (White had 6.1 YPC, which is way above his season average). White got hurt at the end of the third, Detroit sored a TD on the next drive, TB went three-and-out passing on the next drive, Detroit scored another TD, and that was it for their run game. The last time they ran the ball was with 3:24 left in the third quarter.

And other teams have run pretty effectively against them, too. Kyren Williams went for 4.7 YPC the week before. Ty Chandler (yeah, Ty Chandler) ran for 5.8 YPC on 12 carries the week before that (though 2.1 YPC a few weeks earlier). They did a good job against Tony Pollard, but that's not atypical. It's a good run D, but not so dominant that we can just put the ball in Brock's hands. Unless he comes on this week in a big way.

[thesack12]

RE the Defense:

They eventually they stepped it up when it mattered most and played very well for the last 4 possessions and tightened up in the red zone, which was a big factor in outcome of the game. Still, they left an incredible amount to be desired overall and their poor 1st half performance was the main reason why the game was firmly controlled by the Packers until the last few minutes of game clock.

Green Bay's offense held firm control game flow in the first 40 minutes.

Possession 1: 14 plays, 58 yards, 7:38 of clock... Made FG
Possession 2: 10 plays, 68 yards, 4:39 of clock... Turnover on Downs due to very questionable spot at SF 14 yard line
Possession 3: 10 plays, 64 yards, 4:33 of clock... Made FG
Possession 4: Inconsequential as Love took a knee before halftime.
Possession 5: 9 plays, 75 yards, 4:01 of clock... Touchdown
Possession 6: 4 plays, 20 yards, 2:16 of clock... Touchdown (D put in a bad spot due to a monster kickoff return)

Again credit to the D for stiffening up in the redzone, and getting that 4th down stop (thanks to a very friendly spot). They were also put in a very bad position on possession 6 starting at their own 20, thanks to the Special teams allowing a monster kickoff return.

However, it took them all the way until possession 7 (the first INT) to have a completely clean series and/or make a play. Possession 7 didn't start until 3:43 left in the 3rd. They didn't force a punt until 13:22 left in the 4th quarter.

The defense's inability to get the hell off the field and force a punt, not only resulted in unfavorable starting field position for the offense until the very end of the 3rd quarter. But it also didn't really allow the offense a much of a chance to try and get into rhythm. While you can't solely pin that blame on the defense as the offense was sputtering for most of the first 3 quarters, the defense sure wasn't making things much easier for the offense allowing GB to control the ball and dictate field position.

I will give credit to Wilks for being able to make solid adjustments as the games play out. There have been several games this season where the defense has bounced back with strong 2nd halfs after struggling in the 1st half. Wilks seems to be able to adapt and adjust quite well, but seems to build flawed game plans going into games.

The 2nd half prowess is great, and of course giving up FG's is much better than giving up TD's. but at some point not being able to execute a complete game is going to come back and haunt the team. I mean there have been multiple times this season (last week included) where its well past halftime and the opposing team had yet to punt once. And can they manage to sprinkle in a sack or 2 at any point in the game. Lately getting a sack just feels completely unattainable.

We need a complete 60 minute game from the defense. And that should probably start with planning on making Ambry Thomas inactive on Sunday.

Oh and the special teams, man. At this point, we absolutely know its not going to be a + component of the game, but they really need to find a way to not have a disastrous impact on games. They just need play out their roles while providing as close to neutral game flow as possible.

[CrimsonCrew]

Back to this for a minute, the Detroit run D is very solid, make no mistake. But I think their numbers are a bit inflated. They have played a bunch of bad rushing teams in Tampa Bay twice (32nd in YPG), Minnesota twice (29th), Seattle (28th), LA Chargers (25th), NY Jets (22), New Orleans (21), Carolina (20), KC (19), and Denver (18). The Packers are 15th, but Aaron Jones was easing back from injury the first time they played (five carries) and didn't play in the second, so I don't think those numbers are all that indicative - they flew up the rankings once Jones returned healthy.

The Lions did a nice job against the Falcons (9), and decently against the Rams (11; see my post above).

They tended to struggle against the Bears, who were 2nd in the league in YPG thanks largely to Fields. Though a lot of that was because of Fields. The first time they met, they held the RBs to 28 carries for 79 yards (2.8 YPC), though Fields ran for 104 at 5.8 YPC. The second time, they held Fields to 58 yards and 4.8 YPC, but allowed 4.7 YPC and 142 yards total (DJ Moore had three carries for 20 yards, 6.7 YPC).

Baltimore gashed them, as their RBs had 18 carries for 110 yards, 6.1 YPC. Jackson was not a major factor running in that one with 36 yards at 4.0 YPC.

Anyway, all of that is to say that I think we need to stick with the run in this one. Cannot just abandon it, cannot keep splitting out McCaffrey the way we did to start the Packers game. Run the ball, throw off play action, get Brock comfortable and let him carve up this shaky pass D.

[thesack12]

No offense, but if you're the highest paid defensive player in the league, you have to fight off those types of blocks and make sacks. It's been years since I've been on here (ESPN days with Bingo, Ray, Imac, Dodub, Deep, NinerMind, Crimson, et al), so I'm sure this has been mentioned at some thread, but Bosa has yet to have a postseason sack dating back to last year. This is the type of game where the defensive line has an opportunity to make plays (1) Goff is the least mobile QB left in the postseason (2) Goff has thrown 12 INT's this year and 9 of them have been on the road. With Ambry being Ambry again, the Niners have to overcome a pretty solid offensive line to control that fast paced offense.

In addition, the defense did play much better during GB's last 4 possessions, where Love had only 30 something yards passing, 0 TD's, and 2 INT's. Although the Lions pass defense sucks (their back 7 for the most part is uninspiring especially their outside CB's in Sutton, etc), the Niners need to run the ball despite the Lions ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense per DVOA. Don't get cute Kyle and stick to what you do best.

But what do we do best? We are 4th in passing yards, 3rd in run yards. Purdy leads in some stat categories, especially 9.6 per attempt. Meanwhile the Lions are the best run defense and nearly the worst pass defense. Pass, Kyle, pass. Although I still expect a pretty even balance as usual, maybe pass heavy to build a lead and more running. Unless it rains I think are passing game will be great.

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We use the run to set up the pass, though. For this team, right now, I think we need at least the consistent threat of the run to be effective passing the ball. Especially if we don't have Deebo.

I don't mind the occasional empty set to spread out the defense, but don't do it by putting McCaffrey seven yards behind the LOS while eliminating him as a running threat. Motion him at the snap, or put him on the LOS. The empty set with him back off the line has only resulted in a handful of good plays, and what seems like loads of ineffective (or worse) plays. If you want to start using more empty - which is something I've advocated in the past, as opposed to what we used to do with Jimmy and frequently have all eleven guys lined up inside the hashes - then let's really focus on adding a couple WRs this offseason who can complement our starters (the Danny Gray experiment has so far been a big disappointment, as on paper he looked like a nice complementary WR).

Detroit has a shaky pass D, so we'll need Brock to step up. But we can't go completely one-dimensional. That hasn't been a recipe for success for this team. Tampa bay was very pass-heavy, but they still ran the ball effectively (White had 6.1 YPC, which is way above his season average). White got hurt at the end of the third, Detroit sored a TD on the next drive, TB went three-and-out passing on the next drive, Detroit scored another TD, and that was it for their run game. The last time they ran the ball was with 3:24 left in the third quarter.

And other teams have run pretty effectively against them, too. Kyren Williams went for 4.7 YPC the week before. Ty Chandler (yeah, Ty Chandler) ran for 5.8 YPC on 12 carries the week before that (though 2.1 YPC a few weeks earlier). They did a good job against Tony Pollard, but that's not atypical. It's a good run D, but not so dominant that we can just put the ball in Brock's hands. Unless he comes on this week in a big way.

A quick thought regarding personnel/alignments, I don't recall which game it was off the top of my head, I believe the Washington game, but there was one play where Kyle had both CMC and Mitchell in. I don't recall who was the upback and who was the tailback, but they just ran a basic draw up the middle with Eli out of it. I made the comment in the game thread, that I liked the potential of that personnel/formation but Kyle should be more imaginitive with it.

There is a lot you could do with an Eli/CMC backfield. Firstly its not a package that has been used much, so there is basically no tape on it. You would assume that with CMC and Eli lined up in 21 or 22 personnel, the defense would be expecting a run of some type. Which would create an opportunity to cross them up, you might not even have to get a receiver downfield to get a big play out of that. If the safeties collapse biting on a play action out of that alignment, a simple screen route could get big yardage. You could even still get a big play out of a run, by faking the handoff to the upback then having the tailback curl out and take a pitch and hit the outside. Both of those guys are capable of getting to the edges and doing damage, so it might not matter who was the up and who was the tail. If you had Eli as the up and CMC as the tail, you could do play action fake to Eli and have CMC run a wheel type route and hit him for what could be a big gainer. A play with a fake handoff to the upback could be especially useful and valuable in a short yardage situation. There are other formations and motions you can run out of that personnel, and not just lining up in I formation


IDK, maybe its just how my small football brain works. But I do feel like there is some untapped potential to a Mitchell/CMC personnel grouping. Its not something that you could run a lot, but it would have more potential for play design creativity and maybe cause more defensive confusion than having a 2 back field of CMC/Juice.

[arich35]

I think we will get our fair share in the run game, we will need to. I don't want to see Purdy throwing 35+ passes again, pound the rock a bit, get CMC in the slot and Eli in the back field, a lot of motion and end arounds and running to the left and I think we will have some success, at least enough to open up play action

[Samurai]

I think we will get our fair share in the run game, we will need to. I don't want to see Purdy throwing 35+ passes again, pound the rock a bit, get CMC in the slot and Eli in the back field, a lot of motion and end arounds and running to the left and I think we will have some success, at least enough to open up play action

The success (or lack thereof) of our run game may be the big factor as it pits strength vs. strength: we finished 3rd in the league with 140.5 rushing yards/game but the Lions had the 2nd best run defense allowing only 89 rushing yards/game. While there has been much written about challenges with our OL, not much has been said about how poor Juice and Kittle were in the Packers game; both recorded the lowest PFF run blocking grades of their careers in that game. I'm hoping their poor run blocking was due to the muddy field and difficulty in getting traction but needless to say both of them, as well as our OL, will need to play much better against the Lions. I agree that we don't want to leave it all up to Purdy to throw 35+ times; his best games this season all had between 21 to 27 attempts.

[zman1]

I think we will get our fair share in the run game, we will need to. I don't want to see Purdy throwing 35+ passes again, pound the rock a bit, get CMC in the slot and Eli in the back field, a lot of motion and end arounds and running to the left and I think we will have some success, at least enough to open up play action

The success (or lack thereof) of our run game may be the big factor as it pits strength vs. strength: we finished 3rd in the league with 140.5 rushing yards/game but the Lions had the 2nd best run defense allowing only 89 rushing yards/game. While there has been much written about challenges with our OL, not much has been said about how poor Juice and Kittle were in the Packers game; both recorded the lowest PFF run blocking grades of their careers in that game. I'm hoping their poor run blocking was due to the muddy field and difficulty in getting traction but needless to say both of them, as well as our OL, will need to play much better against the Lions. I agree that we don't want to leave it all up to Purdy to throw 35+ times; his best games this season all had between 21 to 27 attempts.

Very interesting note there about kittle and juice. Bet the wet did affect them like we saw guys slipping on defense. Pretty sad that we didn't have the right cleats for our own field.

I think we should be able to run fine, but why not emphasize attacking their glaring weakness, pass defense. Purdy should be back to his normal efficiency with a dry day.

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[Bingo_AlphaMan]

They’re replaying the game on NFL Network, and there’s a particular play that I had missed last week when it initially happened. The first play coming off halftime, Juan Jennings was lined up in the backfield and got a handoff from Purdy as if he’s a legit weapon as a RB. Lol. That play made me chuckle. The heck are we doing!?

[zman1]

They’re replaying the game on NFL Network, and there’s a particular play that I had missed last week when it initially happened. The first play coming off halftime, Juan Jennings was lined up in the backfield and got a handoff from Purdy as if he’s a legit weapon as a RB. Lol. That play made me chuckle. The heck are we doing!?

I remember Ray Ray getting some big yards on that play last year. Better choice than Jennings.

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[Jikkle]

Running the ball should be a big part of the offense against the Lions but we can't ignore exploiting their Pass D which has been gashed several weeks in a row with QBs throwing for 350+ yards and receivers getting 150+ yards.

So really both running and passing should be major parts of the offense and hopefully Kyle can keep them off-balanced by passing when they think we'll run and running when they'll think we'll pass.

[Jikkle]

Watch on YouTube

Gives some more perspective on the game that might've been lost watching the broadcast.

One tidbit I thought was interesting that might explain the pass rush is the Packers invested a lot into slowing it down by constantly having guys chip.

Also it blows my mind how much these guys slipped and it blows my mind because as much science and study goes into optimizing every aspect of the game to gain just a sliver of an advantage that they'd know exactly the length of cleats they need for various conditions. Especially when you're the home team and you should know your field inside and out.