Lead up to Super Bowl LVIII thread

[thesack12]

We have been discussing topics specifically related to the Super Bowl in a handful of different threads.

So thought it might be worth having a dedicated thread for the discussion surrounding the specific matchup with KC and the stories going into the game.

This is not a game thread however.

[thesack12]

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Kittle's toe is not considered anything to be concerned with.

49ers are remarkably healthy going into the Super Bowl. They absolutely need to capitalize on that and close the deal next Sunday.

[thesack12]

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Two things I find interesting:

1) They list Oliver as the lead nickelback, but Ambry Thomas has been in that role and when he left the game last week Logan Ryan stepped in there.

2) Even though he's listed on the other side, Womack is technically higher on the depth chart than Luter, yet Womack has been inactive in favor of Luter in the playoffs.

In any event, CB3 will always be a concern when Ambry Thomas is on the field.

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[Jikkle]

It'll fly under the radar as it won't be anything to massively swing the game or anything but in a game where every little advantage counts for something I wouldn't completely gloss over Joey Bosa helping Nick's preparation for the game.

Joey has seen these guys for years now so I'd imagine he'd have some tips in how Nick can exploit his matchups against the Chief's tackles.

As disappointing as the defensive line has been overall this season if they are ever going to have a massive game this should be it. Subtracting the Rams game 3 out of our last 4 opponents have had top 10 offensive lines and in the Ravens and Lions case easy top 5. The only trash offensive line they've seen are the Commanders.

The Chiefs have a middle of the road offensive line and they are probably closer to our offensive line than they are the Packers or Lion's offensive lines. So this should feel like a massive break for the defensive line especially with the bye week to rest.

But unfortunately this team has beaten me down to the point where the things I expect to happen and on paper should happen never seem to happen.

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

https://www.youtube.com/live/wYnxYjnd7cM?si=TD9jmqMfBDT5WWLq

[thesack12]

It'll fly under the radar as it won't be anything to massively swing the game or anything but in a game where every little advantage counts for something I wouldn't completely gloss over Joey Bosa helping Nick's preparation for the game.

Joey has seen these guys for years now so I'd imagine he'd have some tips in how Nick can exploit his matchups against the Chief's tackles.

As disappointing as the defensive line has been overall this season if they are ever going to have a massive game this should be it. Subtracting the Rams game 3 out of our last 4 opponents have had top 10 offensive lines and in the Ravens and Lions case easy top 5. The only trash offensive line they've seen are the Commanders.

The Chiefs have a middle of the road offensive line and they are probably closer to our offensive line than they are the Packers or Lion's offensive lines. So this should feel like a massive break for the defensive line especially with the bye week to rest.

But unfortunately this team has beaten me down to the point where the things I expect to happen and on paper should happen never seem to happen.

Yeah, the talent of the opposing O-line certainly plays a factor. Still, I'm not sure they opposed an O-line that had more resources poured into it than the 9ers DLine has. There are premium draft picks and Several top of the market contracts up and down the 9ers DL. No matter we want slice it, the DL has been underperforming.

The Commanders game was especially disheartening relative to the lackluster pass rush. Sam Howell was the most sacked QB in the NFL and 2nd in sack %. Yet the 9ers only managed to get him once. Again, sacks don't tell the whole story. Still going from memory I don't recall Howell being under duress all that much in that game either.

Another thing that plays into the disappointing pass rush overall, is the 9ers have consistently blown out teams this season. They had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +193. So in their 12 wins, they won by an average of 16 points. Which means the defense was facing an offense dealing with a - game script much more often than not. When a team has a - game script that usually means that they have to abandon the run game and predictably go to a pass heavy approach. Which should lead to pass rush friendly situations, yet we didn't really see the defense leverage those situations all that much. Of course in the 2 playoff games, its been the opposite. The 49ers offense were facing the - game scripts.

The defense absolutely must play better next Sunday. Its imperative they put together a 60 minute performance. The DL is LONG overdue to have a strong game, and the Super Bowl is the perfect time for them to rise to the occasion and show out.

[thesack12]

Speaking of the pass rush, KC has a very strong one.

Chiefs were 2nd in sacks, 2nd in pressure %, 3rd in hurry %, 5th in knockdown %.

If you watched last weeks game, you saw them routinely getting to Lamar and making his life hell. Baltimore came into the game ranked 9th in pass protection win rate.

The 49er offensive line is going to have a tough task slowing down the KC rush. And as we are all well aware of pass protection is not their strong suit. They ranked 20th in pass protection win rate, but Trent Williams dramatically buoys that equation. The rest of the line is not good in pass pro.

The one sliver of potentially good news is KC blitzes quite a bit, 7th in the NFL at 32.9%. Which likely plays a large role in their pass rush productivity. Whereas, by a lot of metrics Brock Purdy has been the best QB in the NFL against the blitz and under pressure in general. We are likely going to need more of that from Brock in the Super Bowl.

Purdy's high end productivity against the blitz, might also have Spags not dial as many blitzes up. If KC relies on blitzes to get pressure, that would help neutralize their rush.

[thesack12]

It'll fly under the radar as it won't be anything to massively swing the game or anything but in a game where every little advantage counts for something I wouldn't completely gloss over Joey Bosa helping Nick's preparation for the game.

Joey has seen these guys for years now so I'd imagine he'd have some tips in how Nick can exploit his matchups against the Chief's tackles.

As disappointing as the defensive line has been overall this season if they are ever going to have a massive game this should be it. Subtracting the Rams game 3 out of our last 4 opponents have had top 10 offensive lines and in the Ravens and Lions case easy top 5. The only trash offensive line they've seen are the Commanders.

The Chiefs have a middle of the road offensive line and they are probably closer to our offensive line than they are the Packers or Lion's offensive lines. So this should feel like a massive break for the defensive line especially with the bye week to rest.

But unfortunately this team has beaten me down to the point where the things I expect to happen and on paper should happen never seem to happen.

Good Call, I completely feel you about the "on paper" stuff. I've fallen victim to buying into those types of things far too often myself. A lot of times its in regards to the defense underwhelming.

Things like Minnesota is without Justin Jefferson so they should struggle, Cleveland is down to starting PJ Walker so the defense should dominate, ____ is missing x number of regular O-lineman so the 49er DL should be able to exploit that, etc... Most recently its been the Packers are one of the very few teams that have a worse special teams than the 49ers, so that phase shouldn't be a - in the game. Well we saw how that played out... Last week it was Detroit is down a starting OG and their C Ragnow is very banged up, so the that should open up allow some + matchups for the DL. Yeah, that didn't really happen either.

So yeah, I'm kind of done putting stock into those types of things.

[CrimsonCrew]

I posted a version of this in another thread, but this KC run defense has not been great. Bizarrely, Baltimore barely tested them in that area, and I think there's a strong argument that that led to their loss. They had six rushes to their RBs, which is insane for a team that led the league in rush attempts at almost 32 per game. They only had a few called runs to Lamar. Between the pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles, I think they called about 45+ pass plays vs. only 11 or 12 run plays. In a game they lost by seven. It's crazy.

In terms of the passing game, it looked to me like Lamar had some open guys, but either didn't throw it or, when he did, he missed the throw. Even with some of those deep misses, Lamar still threw for 272 yards in a fairly shaky performance.

This defense is pretty legit, but if we stay in our wheelhouse, I think we can put up points on them. But we can't let them force us to play to their strengths. And Brock needs to start games more decisively than he has lately. I really feel since the Ravens loss that he's been hesitant. There's no room for that in this game. We've got to come out locked in and guns blazing.

[CrimsonCrew]

Taking a closer look at the play-by-play, Baltimore did start a few drives running on first down, and were stuffed on some of those (several short gains on first down). That said, they just stopped running entirely in the second half. The Niners have got to keep at it.

[Samurai]

Speaking of the pass rush, KC has a very strong one.

Chiefs were 2nd in sacks, 2nd in pressure %, 3rd in hurry %, 5th in knockdown %.

If you watched last weeks game, you saw them routinely getting to Lamar and making his life hell. Baltimore came into the game ranked 9th in pass protection win rate.

The 49er offensive line is going to have a tough task slowing down the KC rush. And as we are all well aware of pass protection is not their strong suit. They ranked 20th in pass protection win rate, but Trent Williams dramatically buoys that equation. The rest of the line is not good in pass pro.

The one sliver of potentially good news is KC blitzes quite a bit, 7th in the NFL at 32.9%. Which likely plays a large role in their pass rush productivity. Whereas, by a lot of metrics Brock Purdy has been the best QB in the NFL against the blitz and under pressure in general. We are likely going to need more of that from Brock in the Super Bowl.

Purdy's high end productivity against the blitz, might also have Spags not dial as many blitzes up. If KC relies on blitzes to get pressure, that would help neutralize their rush.

Our typical response to a strong rush is to counter with quick, short passes; get rid of the ball before the rushers get to Purdy. If we can get short passes to our playmakers (Deebo, CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle), they have as good a chance as anyone at making one guy miss and turn the short pass into a big play.

[thesack12]

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[CrimsonCrew]

I'm fine with Armstead getting in like a single day of hard work before the game. I want him as healthy as possible. He really struggled in the NFCCG, and we need him as healthy as we can get him.

[thesack12]

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To be honest, I don't love hearing this kind of stuff. Especially from such an important player.

I get that its Vegas, and I'm sure everything will be kept in check. However, my thoughts are there will be plenty of time to "turn up" after next Sunday and these guys can do that anywhere they desire.

I don't know, maybe its just me being out of touch. Also worth noting, that to be fair I haven't seen or heard the entire session from Mooney, so I don't know the context involved with that quote.

[thesack12]

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Omenihu is definitely out, and Thuney is not expected to play but does have an outside chance.

[Jikkle]

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To be honest, I don't love hearing this kind of stuff. Especially from such an important player.

I get that its Vegas, and I'm sure everything will be kept in check. However, my thoughts are there will be plenty of time to "turn up" after next Sunday and these guys can do that anywhere they desire.

I don't know, maybe its just me being out of touch. Also worth noting, that to be fair I haven't seen or heard the entire session from Mooney, so I don't know the context involved with that quote.

As long as he's not doing anything that can get him into trouble I'm not bothered by the players blowing off a little steam when they get there.

Sure you want to hear how these guys are doing nothing but sitting in their hotel rooms watching film and only taking breaks to sleep, eat, and practice but you don't want to overdo it either to where it wears you out mentally and you get too wound up and be tense during the game.

Reminds me of Montana telling Barton that John Candy is in the stands to calm him down before they started their final game-winning drive in the Super Bowl against the Bengals.

And specifically when it comes to Ward this will be his 3rd Super Bowl and he was part of the Chiefs when they beat us and with the Chiefs when they lost to the Bucs so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in that he knows how to prepare for the game.

[thesack12]

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To be honest, I don't love hearing this kind of stuff. Especially from such an important player.

I get that its Vegas, and I'm sure everything will be kept in check. However, my thoughts are there will be plenty of time to "turn up" after next Sunday and these guys can do that anywhere they desire.

I don't know, maybe its just me being out of touch. Also worth noting, that to be fair I haven't seen or heard the entire session from Mooney, so I don't know the context involved with that quote.

As long as he's not doing anything that can get him into trouble I'm not bothered by the players blowing off a little steam when they get there.

Sure you want to hear how these guys are doing nothing but sitting in their hotel rooms watching film and only taking breaks to sleep, eat, and practice but you don't want to overdo it either to where it wears you out mentally and you get too wound up and be tense during the game.

Reminds me of Montana telling Barton that John Candy is in the stands to calm him down before they started their final game-winning drive in the Super Bowl against the Bengals.

And specifically when it comes to Ward this will be his 3rd Super Bowl and he was part of the Chiefs when they beat us and with the Chiefs when they lost to the Bucs so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in that he knows how to prepare for the game.

All good points.

You're right, having an opportunity to decompress and relax for a bit could be beneficial. This team (especially the defense) has came out the gate extremely tight in both playoff games. They can use an avenue to loosen up a bit.

Having a chance be humans before stuff gets real, can be healthy and therapeutic for the guys. Like you alluded to just don't let it go too far and don't do anything flat out stupid.

[thesack12]

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