Lead up to Super Bowl LVIII thread

[CrimsonCrew]

Even though we seem to be the underdog by everyone I think we by far have the most pressure on us and that is what worries me. Kyle with a lot of pressure to get that monkey off his back, Wilks with a lot of pressure to not call another **** 1st half against Mahomes, Purdy with a lot of pressure just as a 2nd year guy starting in the biggest game in the world.

Bit of a mixed bag. It should mean more to our guys as they're mostly chasing their first. Hopefully they will come out playing with some fire. But there's also definitely a level of tightness that we could see. It's not unusual for guys in their first SB to show some nerves, and we've seen that sort of thing from Purdy before. I wouldn't expect the Chiefs to have the same, especially Mahomes, Kelce, and Reid. It's all gravy to them at this point.

[thesack12]

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[thesack12]

So apparently at 6AM this morning there was a fire alarm that rang through the hotel the 49ers are staying at.

So that's another distraction the team has to deal with. This one effecting the quality of rest they are getting.

At least it happened on Thursday instead of game day Sunday.

[Harry Palmer]

So apparently at 6AM this morning there was a fire alarm that rang through the hotel the 49ers are staying at.

So that's another distraction the team has to deal with. This one effecting the quality of rest they are getting.

At least it happened on Thursday instead of game day Sunday.

If it happened today it will almost certainly happen Saturday night. This is a little more ‘part of the deal’ than the field, though. It’s more common when there are actual home/away teams, though. Can’t remember if technically one team is home and one away for the SB.

[thesack12]

So apparently at 6AM this morning there was a fire alarm that rang through the hotel the 49ers are staying at.

So that's another distraction the team has to deal with. This one effecting the quality of rest they are getting.

At least it happened on Thursday instead of game day Sunday.

If it happened today it will almost certainly happen Saturday night. This is a little more ‘part of the deal’ than the field, though. It’s more common when there are actual home/away teams, though. Can’t remember if technically one team is home and one away for the SB.

KC is technically the "home team."

As recently as yesterday I thought that was because the stadium was home to an AFC team, but I learned today that the Super Bowl "home team" alternates each year. So next year the NFC representative (49ers ) will be the "home team."

[thesack12]

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SF is incredibly healthy going into the big game. They have enjoyed pretty good health all season long.

Health is just one of the plethora of reasons why they need to close the deal on Sunday. It might be awhile until they get another comparatively healthy season like this year.

[Harry Palmer]

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SF is incredibly healthy going into the big game. They have enjoyed pretty good health all season long.

Health is just one of the plethora of reasons why they need to close the deal on Sunday. It might be awhile until they get another comparatively healthy season like this year.

Since they started talking about the field I’ve had visions of another season sunk by a big injury, nojinx. And not only would it be on brand for the team, but more chances for us fans to be called the forty-whiners. I really don’t understand the league’s position on this, it feels borderline professional misconduct.

[thesack12]

Vegas favoring the 49ers
Most betting on the Chiefs
Media favoring the Chiefs

Sort of strange. But none of that crap matters. I think we're about 2 months overdue for a dominant/strong performance from both sides. And I agree with some that the Eagles gameplan on offense should be the formula. Consistent rushing mixed with more "old-school" WCO short passing game to quell the pass-rush and blitzing that Spags will surely employ. Purdy has been excellent against blitzing and pressure.

While, I tend to agree and sure as hell hope you prove prophetic here, I just don't know about this defense.

The defense certainly has the talent and potential to dominate. However, they go through stretches of just being downright bad.

They were terrible for the entire 3 game losing streak earlier this season. They have been awful in both 1st halves of the 2 playoff games. There have been a handful of games where its deep into the 3rd quarter or even into the 4th and they have yet to force a single punt. They have been getting shredded in the run game for the last several games. They struggle to get off the field on 3rd down far too often, and are ABYSMAL in 3rd and long situations for some reason. They consistently fail to generate a viable pass rush.

I'm not sure if its game planning, scheme, individual execution, wholistic execution, or what but I just don't know if this version of the 49er defense is actually a dominant caliber defense. I will say that Wilks and the defense overall have done a great job of making adjustments and having much better 2nd halves all season.

I don't know what the key to unlocking this defense's true potential for Sunday is. Whatever the plan is, it sure as hell better result them being able to put together a complete game. 30 minutes of good ball, isn't going to get the job done this week.

As for the 3rd phase, it would be wishful thinking to think special teams will be able to provide a + impact. We just need them to be as close to a net neutral as possible.

[CrimsonCrew]

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SF is incredibly healthy going into the big game. They have enjoyed pretty good health all season long.

Health is just one of the plethora of reasons why they need to close the deal on Sunday. It might be awhile until they get another comparatively healthy season like this year.

I think they're done with the hard practices at this point, and no word of injury. I think they might have a walk through in the stadium today.

Since they started talking about the field I’ve had visions of another season sunk by a big injury, nojinx. And not only would it be on brand for the team, but more chances for us fans to be called the forty-whiners. I really don’t understand the league’s position on this, it feels borderline professional misconduct.

[CrimsonCrew]

A few thoughts as we enter the home stretch.

I was looking over the Chiefs-Dolphins game, as that is in some ways the best analog for our offense. Now, that game isn't a great comparison as it was bitterly cold and Miami historically struggles in cold weather, but it's about the closest we have other than the Green Bay game. One thing that stood out was Miami's struggles to commit to the run because they repeatedly put themselves in bad spots with dumb penalties.

On 3rd and 8 in the first drive, they false-started, leading to 3rd and 13. Had to punt. On the second drive, they converted a 3rd and 1 at their own 45, but illegal formation led to a 3rd and 5. Tua threw a pick on the next play. The third drive was a two-play TD drive. On the fourth drive, they were moving it well on the ground (started with four straight Mostert runs for 8, 4, 3, and 6 yards) before throwing on both 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1. On the fifth drive, they again had a false start on 3rd and 8 that resulted in 3rd and 13 and a Tua sack. After that, they started to go fairly pass heavy. To start the second half, they went incomplete pass, five-yard run, and one-yard scramble. After that, they leaned on Achane for a drive and he wasn't very effective with four runs for seven runs, none longer than three yards, and then went pass-heavy in desperation mode.

Chris Berman made his pick (Chiefs 23, Niners 20), and mentioned that the D hasn't allowed more than 20 points to the last eight opponents except the playoff game against Buffalo. This is true, but needs some context.

They did a great job of shutting down Baltimore, but Baltimore had two turnovers in the endzone. Baltimore also completely abandoned the run early in the game. Multiple early drives saw them only call one or two runs, and if that, to a RB. They tried to run it for one drive to start the second half, then went right back to throwing on virtually every play. Buffalo put up 24 points in the first 42 minutes, then went cold in the fourth quarter (granted the KC D played a big part in this) and missed a 44-yard FG at the end. Miami's offense couldn't function in the cold and only scored 7.

Then they played (in reverse order) a Chargers team QBed by Easton Stick, a Bengals team QBed by Jake Browning, a Vegas team QBed by Aidan O'Connell, and a NE team QBed by Bailey Zappe. They lost to O'Connell as the Raiders ran for 157 yards. They held Buffalo to 20 in a loss, and allowed Green Bay to score 27 in a game that is outside the qualifying period.

Anyway, the takeaway for me is that the Chiefs thrive on negative offensive game script. If they can keep us in obvious passing downs, they're at their best. But they are vulnerable on the ground if you can stick with it. Let's hope Kyle doesn't do anything crazy and sticks with the girl who brung us.

[arich35]

Officially getting nervous. Had a bad dream last night, Jake Moody missed a FG wide right with 8 min left and we ended up losing. I probably need help

[thesack12]

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[CharityStripe34]

Vegas favoring the 49ers
Most betting on the Chiefs
Media favoring the Chiefs

Sort of strange. But none of that crap matters. I think we're about 2 months overdue for a dominant/strong performance from both sides. And I agree with some that the Eagles gameplan on offense should be the formula. Consistent rushing mixed with more "old-school" WCO short passing game to quell the pass-rush and blitzing that Spags will surely employ. Purdy has been excellent against blitzing and pressure.

While, I tend to agree and sure as hell hope you prove prophetic here, I just don't know about this defense.

The defense certainly has the talent and potential to dominate. However, they go through stretches of just being downright bad.

They were terrible for the entire 3 game losing streak earlier this season. They have been awful in both 1st halves of the 2 playoff games. There have been a handful of games where its deep into the 3rd quarter or even into the 4th and they have yet to force a single punt. They have been getting shredded in the run game for the last several games. They struggle to get off the field on 3rd down far too often, and are ABYSMAL in 3rd and long situations for some reason. They consistently fail to generate a viable pass rush.

I'm not sure if its game planning, scheme, individual execution, wholistic execution, or what but I just don't know if this version of the 49er defense is actually a dominant caliber defense. I will say that Wilks and the defense overall have done a great job of making adjustments and having much better 2nd halves all season.

I don't know what the key to unlocking this defense's true potential for Sunday is. Whatever the plan is, it sure as hell better result them being able to put together a complete game. 30 minutes of good ball, isn't going to get the job done this week.

As for the 3rd phase, it would be wishful thinking to think special teams will be able to provide a + impact. We just need them to be as close to a net neutral as possible.

I guess I threw out "dominant" to cavalierly. I will settle for a strong start from both sides akin to much of the regular season. Even if the defense just forces 2-3 stalled drives for the Chiefs, that will make a WORLD of difference for the offense to be able to be balanced with the play-calling. I really think if we get a lead early on this time we're keeping it for good. And nothing about that belief is meant to disparage the Chiefs as they are a most worthy opponent, obviously.

We're just f*in' 1.5 months overdue for a complete performance. I was curious during the GB and Detroit games if the defense came out so vanilla thinking that the offense would bail them out.

[thesack12]

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I think its stuff like this that leads people to believe the DL/pass rush is better than it actually is.

When you just glance at the graphic, you think wow that's a crazy high pressure rate and the highest in the NFL. However, when you actually read it you see that its only in regards to a specialized situation, 3rd down blitzes. To provide further context, the fine print mentions the SF doesn't even blitz that much, 19th in the NFL. While its great that SF seems to be successful in these situations, in reality we are probably only talking like 2-3 plays a game.

49ers defense isn't even good on 3rd downs. They allow the 9th highest conversion rate in the NFL, and are just flat terrible in 3rd and long situations which is a glaring indicator that the pass rush isn't productive. The defense also allows the 9th longest average time of possession. While there is a lot that goes into that stat, not being able to get off the field on 3rd down is a sizable factor.

Then you have David Lombardi, who I do like and value his content, just abstractly say "generate some effective pressure." Again, a lot of people are gonna read Lombardi's quip and glance at the graphic and think, wow the 49ers' have a very good pass rush the DL must be doing fine work out there, without digesting the particulars of the stat.

I don't know man, I'm probably overthinking it. I'm just tired about hearing about how the 49ers DL is supposedly daunting, yet they constantly get outplayed by opposing team's O-lines.

All that said, I have a craving for crow. If the DL goes out tomorrow and shuts me the hell up with a game wrecking, super bowl winning performance, I will excitedly eat a massive serving of crow. C'mon DL, serve it up to me... I'm starving

[Harry Palmer]

Agree on the D, but they get strangely dominant when he does make halftime adjustments, so it’s a head-scratcher. I’m almost tempted to believe that aside from when they are playing a very mobile qb and the DL stresses containment, he is either pretty vanilla or just predictable in his weekly game plans, because opposing OC’s seem to completely have our number early, like they know what we’re running each play.

But the fact that we haven’t strung more than 2 quarters of our normal, dominant self together in any game in almost 2 months is by far my biggest concern, at least internally. If KC gets out to an early lead, both how their defense and our offense work, and even their being much better running the ball this year and our D getting gutted a lot when getting heavy doses of a running game…that might just be too many factors working against us to comeback.

And I’d assume both teams know these factors, so the pressure for the Niners to get an early lead or at least not fall behind is going to be extreme. Purdy’s freakishly calm under pressure, but even the GOATs confess to being very nervous at the beginning of their first SB, going through the first few plays in a kind of daze, and if that holds true I hope Kyle comes out running because we might otherwise be down 14 or w/e before Brock snaps out of what everyone seemingly goes through first time.

There’s also this sense that we are just the latest chapter in this era’s dynasty story the way the AFC guys were for the Niners/Cowboys/Packers etc. dynasties, but that’s more of a fan thing, I hope.

[Jikkle]

The positive side for the 9ers is the Chiefs offensive line is the weakest they've seen in weeks and usually ranked closer to where our offensive line sits compared to the Lions and Packers' offensive line.

The negative side is our defensive line rarely seems to take over games regardless of the opponent's offensive line.

Honestly, if the pass rush isn't productive against the Chiefs' offensive line then some serious questions need to be raised as to why. My only caveat to that statement is if Mahomes is just dumping off a bunch of quick passes so of course the defensive line isn't going to do anything if Mahomes is just throwing screen passes and 4 yard completions.

Other than that there is no reason for the defensive line to not be a factor in this game. Obviously, it's Mahomes so it's not like they'll have 8 sacks but when he drops back and holds the ball for any length of time he better be uncomfortable most of the night.

But after having another bye week and having a bye week a couple of weeks ago along with a light scrimmage against the Rams fatigue and preparation should not be an issue at all.

[zman1]

Well, which defense shows up today? Our good one or our bad one? If our good one shows up then we will win. Fortunately, their offense is not what once was, not the quick strike of the Tyreek years. We need to hold them to field goals.

We just won two games while playing like crap for most of the time. We can win this game and beat this team. Mahomes is not unbeatable (I hope).

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