Kawhi signs 3y/$152.4M contract extension, fully guaranteed, no player option

[Dynamix]

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[donemilio21]

I HATE IT.

We should have waited until end of the season. He played 30 games and got a $150M guarantee for it. I mean who are we betting against ? No need to give out an extension now.

[og15]

Yup, well that's good, injury history or not, the upside of Kawhi is too hard to pass up.

I HATE IT.

We should have waited until end of the season. He played 30 games and got a $150M guarantee for it.

The question becomes, what would need to happen the rest of the season for the team to change their mind about a contract like this? If the likelihood of that thing is too low, then just don't waste time and get it over with.

[donemilio21]

Yup, well that's good, injury history or not, the upside of Kawhi is too hard to pass up.

I HATE IT.

We should have waited until end of the season. He played 30 games and got a $150M guarantee for it.

The question becomes, what would need to happen the rest of the season for the team to change their mind about a contract like this? If the likelihood of that thing is too low, then just don't waste time and get it over with.

something like him suddenly deciding to have surgery and not tell anyone, and be out for reminder of this season, while organization saying he is day to day until April.
It's Ballmers money, he has plenty of it. I don't care how he spends it. but that's 35% of the cap to a player who has not played a full season of basketball in 7 years. Very risky bet for the franchise.
Are we gonna give the same to Harden and PG now ? How about Westbrook ?

[Bobbymcgee]

Just hope that the Clippers can keep this current version of the team together next year as well. Meaning everyone gets paid and is happy with their contract. No idea how any of that works though and if it's even possible.

[esqtvd]

Bank it before he blows out a knee. Smart move.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Let's remember, the Clippers re-signed Blake Griffin after their reverse farm trade of Chris Paul. He was traded mid-season in 2018, ending the Lob City era and beginning the quick rebuild that followed: a missed playoffs that netted them Shai Gilgeous Alexander, the trade for Paul George as a condition to signing Kawhi Leonard, and finally the last hurrah James Harden trade for the Clipper's first ever True Fantastic 4 Big 3.

There's one huge difference: Griffin's was a re-sign after his contract ended. This is an extension of a current contract with a paycut attached. Extensions block the Clippers from trading Leonard for a whole year. By taking a paycut, Clippers reduce their salary cap intake so they can make outside-the-box moves again; remember they are a 2nd apron team who are limited in their methods of acquiring players, if not prohibited outright (I would rather believe the latter so that I can paint the narrative that Clippers are forced to trade players without getting anything in return, not even a draft pick, making these moves salary dumps). It's very possible the paycut was made with the intent of re-signing both George and Harden. Maybe Westbrook gets a raise, too. Clippers could be looking to even out the paycuts so that Leonard, George and Harden all have the exact same contract, down to the last digit (Westbrook will only have a shot at the mid-level or bird rights).

Right now, this feels like borrowed time. Everybody has already judged the Clipper's season as ensured failure, and that everyone will be gone. This move grants Clippers one more year, pushing their Ultimatum Killer Kombat season back by one. But it also gives them a chance to survey the season from a microscope, where if they still are unable to compete, they will have three contracts to trade, giving them a huge chance at rebuilding their draft cupboard. In the short term, they are guaranteed to enter the Intuit Dome with Leonard.

But the verdict still stands. They want to keep the Big 3, they must make a deep playoff run. NBA Finals, or a conference finals run at Game 7. Very possible they could be a 2nd round exit, but as long as it's competitive and not another blown 3-1 lead (or the ultimate, the miracle 3-0 comeback) - and the opponent they lose to does not win the championship, meaning a conference finals or NBA Finals loss - the Clippers Big 3 experiment gets to live another year.

[wco81]

Well they couldn't let him or PG walk and not get any compensation.

And they had to retain those salary slots, since there's no other way for now to rebuild the roster.

The real test will be what they do with Harden. He's shooting well above his career efficiency. Is it going to sustain the whole season and into the playoffs or regress to the mean?

Maybe it can sustain because he hasn't played with the players of the caliber of KL and PG since his OKC days.

But his playoffs efficiency is well below his regular season shooting.

So if he produces in the playoffs and the Clippers make a deep run, you'd think Ballmer would pay him, though that would probably lock the Clippers above the Second Apron for a long time?

These players are all looking for multi-year deals well into their mid-30s. So if they play enough games, Clippers will contend. But if any of them miss long stretches, the rest of the roster may not offer relief if they can't at least sign MLE players.

[donemilio21]

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[ERClips]

It’s a good move. What other realistic options do the Clippers have? The business of Intuit Dome matters too. It’s still January so nobody really knows how the rest of this season plays out. The way we’re playing, if it continues, we could literally hang a banner in the new arena. Or we could lose a key player to injury and exit 1st or 2nd round? It’s LA, we need stars for the Dome.

Let’s go get the trophy this year though!

[KingCrimzzon]

It’s a good move. What other realistic options do the Clippers have? The business of Intuit Dome matters too. It’s still January so nobody really knows how the rest of this season plays out. The way we’re playing, if it continues, we could literally hang a banner in the new arena. Or we could lose a key player to injury and exit 1st or 2nd round? It’s LA, we need stars for the Dome.

Let’s go get the trophy this year though!

This is basically it. I mean, the Clippers don't really have any other options. They are over the cap any ways and cant sign other players. AND if he stays healthy this year and has a monster year, who would be better as a FA? I'm OK with this, when hes fully healthy (I know big ask) he's top 3 in the league.

[og15]

Yup, well that's good, injury history or not, the upside of Kawhi is too hard to pass up.

I HATE IT.

We should have waited until end of the season. He played 30 games and got a $150M guarantee for it.

The question becomes, what would need to happen the rest of the season for the team to change their mind about a contract like this? If the likelihood of that thing is too low, then just don't waste time and get it over with.

something like him suddenly deciding to have surgery and not tell anyone, and be out for reminder of this season, while organization saying he is day to day until April.
It's Ballmers money, he has plenty of it. I don't care how he spends it. but that's 35% of the cap to a player who has not played a full season of basketball in 7 years. Very risky bet for the franchise.
Are we gonna give the same to Harden and PG now ? How about Westbrook ?

PG, very likely.

Harden can't be extended, so he can't get that, Clippers have his bird rights though, I think cap rules will end up limiting him to 35 million range, but I haven't looked that deep.

Westbrook won't get more than around MLE money.


The question is also always what the alternative is, right?

[nickhx2]

yeah i was reading gb and unless i misunderstood, they were fiddling with the idea that kawhi/pg getting maxed extensions meant harden wouldn't get anything, but i was like, wait don't we have harden's bird rights?

so if you say we have that then i'm not worried about retaining him at all. he fits great here, he's with guys whom he can win with, LA is home for him, so on and so forth.

[donemilio21]

The question is also always what the alternative is, right?

I think the alternative to giving a 3 year extension today is not to give out an extension until end of the season.
I don't believe 6 weeks of good basketball erases 4 years of disappointing seasons and necessitate commitment of another 3 years.

[madmaxmedia]

Just hope that the Clippers can keep this current version of the team together next year as well. Meaning everyone gets paid and is happy with their contract. No idea how any of that works though and if it's even possible.

These are falling dominoes, they wouldn't have done this deal if it made re-signing PG and Harden impossible. We'll see. It seems clear that we need all 3 to really contend, and I think they each know this too. Re-signing Kawhi and PG is by far the best way to re-sign Harden, we'll see how it all shakes out. I do think Russ might opt out and end up being the main loss.

The question is also always what the alternative is, right?

I think the alternative to giving a 3 year extension today is not to give out an extension until end of the season.
I don't believe 6 weeks of good basketball erases 4 years of disappointing seasons and necessitate commitment of another 3 years.

We need Kawhi a lot more than he needs us IMO. We both do need his health however.

[madmaxmedia]

Honestly I am 100% happy this is done now. What was waiting going to do, except lead to indecision about what the team's future was?

We already know he's frail but a bonafide Top 10 player when he's on the floor, and flat out our best player. If he stayed healthy or got injured, wouldn't change either aspect. The only exception is if you literally believe his knees are about to fall off and flat out don't want him here any more, but he's held up pretty well this year and played great.

What this does mean is that Kawhi and probably the others buy into this team and that we have a reasonable shot at a title (as good as plenty of other really good teams.)

[madmaxmedia]

Well they couldn't let him or PG walk and not get any compensation.

And they had to retain those salary slots, since there's no other way for now to rebuild the roster.

The real test will be what they do with Harden. He's shooting well above his career efficiency. Is it going to sustain the whole season and into the playoffs or regress to the mean?

Maybe it can sustain because he hasn't played with the players of the caliber of KL and PG since his OKC days.

But his playoffs efficiency is well below his regular season shooting.

So if he produces in the playoffs and the Clippers make a deep run, you'd think Ballmer would pay him, though that would probably lock the Clippers above the Second Apron for a long time?

These players are all looking for multi-year deals well into their mid-30s. So if they play enough games, Clippers will contend. But if any of them miss long stretches, the rest of the roster may not offer relief if they can't at least sign MLE players.

Ballmer will happily pay to keep our big 3 around, of course second apron comes with other roster-related limitations but what are you gonna do?

I think Harden can roughly continue his play into the playoffs, as long as he is primarily a point guard and not regularly counted on to try to get 30+. However, obviously the better the competition the more likely the team will actually need that out of him in a game.

Everything goes to crap with significant injuries, but if 2 or all 3 of those guys left it would all go to crap anyway (as you said they have to retain those salary slots.)

[HardenGoat]

All that matters is health. This team is legit and has the best playoff closer in the game. Iam sure the entire core will be retained if we get the chip. The pieces fit.

[esqtvd]

PLAY ME OR TRADE ME

Ballmer can think about trading the younger talent now that the future is taking shape.

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[og15]

The question is also always what the alternative is, right?

I think the alternative to giving a 3 year extension today is not to give out an extension until end of the season.
I don't believe 6 weeks of good basketball erases 4 years of disappointing seasons and necessitate commitment of another 3 years.

Certainly, but waiting only has value if you're willing to actually not give him the contract. If the goal is to sign him in the end, what's the point of waiting?

If you wait and you're not willing to give him the contract, then it's essentially a commitment to the lottery (without owning many picks), because then PG and Harden aren't coming back without him, and sign and trades don't work so well in the current NBA, so you're not going to be able to get assets back.

So the decision to not re-sign him would only make sense if you traded him mid-season. If the Clippers were planning to keep Kawhi the rest of this season (obvious decision), then the only thing that makes sense is signing him.