Official 2014 Free Agency discussion

[milesfides]

People need to stop talking about Kevin Durant...

There's ZERO indication that KD would leave OKC for Los Angeles. Dude has always been committed to OKC, loves it there, the front office is sharp, OKC will be in all likelihood better than we are for the next few years, etc.

Also Durant is one of the most humble/nicest guys ever, so I wouldn't expect him to pull a Shaq/Dwight/Lebron move for more fame, glory, etc.

Durant also recently said that he needed to get back to having love for the game, and stop getting focused so much on this thing called winning a championship. Not that it lowers my opinion of him, but it does hurt the likelihood that Durant will leave OKC to chase a championship in L.A., if for some unexpected reason the Lakers get better than the Thunder the next two seasons.

[Kilroy]

To me OKC seems like they've been in a decline since the Harden trade. I think the new CBA hurts them and I wouldn't doubt that if things continue to go badly there, KD could end up leaving. I think Westbrook will leave first though.
KD's more recent comments don't sound as high on OKC as they used to.


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[milesfides]

OKC is 3rd in the west at 10-3, without a healthy Russell Westbrook. Jeremy Lamb is balling and Reggie Jackson is emerging as the next Eric Bledsoe. Serge Ibaka has improved every year, and is currently posting a PER on the level of Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol, and he's only 24 years old.

They're looking a lot better than we are. Now, and in the near (and maybe far) future.

[tviper]

Assume Melo decides to opt out and come to LA.

With Kobe's extension, the options for roster spots are very limited. As many have noted, it is very unlikely that Pau comes back, either traded or leaving as a FA. Projected salary cap is 62.9M.

Assume that Hill is desired to remain with the team to start at the 5 with Melo at the 4 and Kobe at the 2/3. If Melo takes a little less than the max (22M instead of 22.5M), Hill can be signed with a salary starting at 6.6M if Pau, Blake, Meeks, Kelly, Williams, and Kaman are renounced/traded/leave via FA, Nash is waived via stretch provision, and 1 of Xavier/Farmar/Wes is renounced. The roster then would look like this (rounded for post, but actual calculated for cap purposes):

Kobe=23.5M
Melo=22.0M
Hill=6.6M
Nash(waived)=3.2M
1st Rnd Pick (est.)=2.0M
Nick=1.23M
Sacre=0.9M
Cap holds for 2 of Xavier/Farmar/Wes=1.8M
Cap holds for remaining 3 roster spots=1.5M
Total=62.8 (actual=62,827,589)

The vets were chosen as likely candidates for renouncing due to higher cap holds. Williams and Kelly were chosen for renouncing due to expected contributions going forward. The questions are as follows:

1. Which 2 out of Xavier/Farmar/Wes would you not renounce?
2. Of the 2 that are not renounced, which one would you sign using the Room MLE (2.7M) and which one would you sign using the Non-Bird Exception (1.3M)?
3. Do you think any of the three would accept these salaries or do you think one or more would be offered more by another team and would leave?

IMO, Wes and Farmar would be more important with that roster, and X could be signed (after renouncing) to another 1 year deal, perhaps Meeks as well. Resulting in the following lineup:

Farmar/FA or Pick
Kobe/Meeks
Nick/Xavier
Melo/Wes
Hill/Sacre

[milesfides]

And this is why the Lakers need to angle for K. Love and Kyrie Irving...

We've got a much better chance of landing them than any other comparable players. And they're young, so their max contracts don't eat up as much salary cap.

Melo would just murder our chances. Not good enough, and too expensive. Feel that way about Kobe now? Adding Melo doubles our problem.

And incremental improvements are pointless. Even if we get better, we won't get on that level of where we can compete with the Heat or Indiana or the Spurs or OKC toe to toe.

We can't sign anybody this summer. Nobody makes sense. We can't sign anybody for longer than a one-year deal. Roll the dice for Love, then Irving, then Anthony Davis...and if all fails, we'll start to get some of our own picks back, Kobe's contract is gone and we can rebuild from the bottom up. Committing anything less than that would be accepting mediocrity.

[loveshaq786]

I am with you...

farmar>wes> xavier

[jellybean8]

Hopefully we end up with a higher pick ( we need to tank ! ) so we can end up with a defensive 3 or 5

[dockingsched]

And this is why the Lakers need to angle for K. Love and Kyrie Irving...

We've got a much better chance of landing them than any other comparable players. And they're young, so their max contracts don't eat up as much salary cap.

Melo would just murder our chances. Not good enough, and too expensive. Feel that way about Kobe now? Adding Melo doubles our problem.

And incremental improvements are pointless. Even if we get better, we won't get on that level of where we can compete with the Heat or Indiana or the Spurs or OKC toe to toe.

We can't sign anybody this summer. Nobody makes sense. We can't sign anybody for longer than a one-year deal. Roll the dice for Love, then Irving, then Anthony Davis...and if all fails, we'll start to get some of our own picks back, Kobe's contract is gone and we can rebuild from the bottom up. Committing anything less than that would be accepting mediocrity.

i'm 100% behind your plan for the most part, i think i've been and 1'ing a ton of your posts lately. however, i just can't get behind some of the targets you mention, in this case irving and davis. i just think its totally underealistic to target players that will be restricted free agents entering their 1st big deal of their lives. outside of ben gordon, history says it never happens.

[dockingsched]

farmar would need to sacrifice once again cause a player his level is going to command a salary beyond the lakers ability to pay in your scenario.

[tviper]

Depending on whether Nash is able to come back and play at a high level, another option is to let Hill walk and keep Nash to give it one last shot with Kobe and Melo, then allow his contract to come off in 2015.

[tviper]

farmar would need to sacrifice once again cause a player his level is going to command a salary beyond the lakers ability to pay in your scenario.

yes, that is one of the questions. Would Farmar take 2.7M to stay with the Lakers and MDA to play with Kobe and Melo. Given that he has already given up $ to play here, it is a tough one.

[milesfides]

^I'm not saying it's likely. I'm just saying we have a better chance of getting K. Love and K. Irving than the short list of players who are almost impossible to get.

And players below K. Love and K. Irving are just not good enough. I'm also loving the problems in Cleveland right now. The more Minny and Cleveland struggle, the better our chances get.

But as far as Kyrie turning down an extension and accepting the qualifying offer, I completely understand that it would be a historical exception, but not unreasonable for the following reasons:

The difference between Kyrie's qualifying offer and the first year of a max contract will be between 4-7m dollars (depending on if he qualifies for the Derrick Rose rule)...and I just think that's a marginal, almost negligible difference considering the upside of moving to second biggest sports market and the most valuable franchise in the league. Kyrie is too good of a player, and too confident in himself, to be desperate for those marginal millions in that first year. I think he'll take a much broader view of free agency, especially if Cleveland struggles. I'm not saying it's likely. I'm just saying it's not unreasonable given these factors (If you were him, would you take the marginal few million and stay with a struggling Cleveland? Or come to L.A. where they have all those banners up there and their best players are immortalized and you double your salary in endorsements? I'm trying not to be biased, but if I'm Kyrie, I'm leaving Cleveland. And to be fair, that's why I'm not even trying for Durant. OKC is too good and Kevin Durant isn't the glorywhore Kyrie is)

Anthony Davis is more of a pipe dream, for sure, his free agency is in 3 years, who knows what will happen until then. But to me he's clearly the most impactful player outside of Lebron - and he will quickly be at the top when Lebron slows down in his 30s. But he does play in a small market and I don't think their current guards are really going to maximize his game or take that team to the next level. But he's a guy that you can go broke for. He's worth the risk of being stood up. And his situation is somewhat conducive to allowing him to be poached.

I'm not saying any of these things are likely (except Kevin Love, if we make room for him I would bet my bitcoins he'll return to L.A.)...but at least they're worth trying for. Anthony Davis is absolutely worth it, and we just hope the Pelicans keep struggling.

Lebron, Melo, Durant...none of those guys are worth trying for, for different reasons - that's just my opinion. But that's not to say we should blow our cap space on whoever we can get at every opportunity. We won't win a championship that way.

Got to find those windows of landing great players at the right time, and that's all I'm saying.

[Kangaroohop]

If we can't get Lebron let's wait a year for Love. As much as a love Anthony his 30.. At this stage I'm all for Wes/X/Jf & Swaggy coming back. Maybe if we add a PF who can create and play D


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[kblo247]

With Farmar I'd almost say guarantee him the starting spot. Push Nash out and let Blake walk, then tell Farmar stay and start here

[loveshaq786]

I still think toronto should be the target... make them swallow nash

gasol and nash for lowy and rudy gay....

if we cant trade rudy for an expiring contract, we dont get melo.... but we can get love.

Its worth it in the long run

[Dr Aki]

there's no way kyrie is leaving guaranteed money on the table.

it only takes one freak injury to ruin a career and if kyrie is shoved 80 million dollars in his face, he's not hesitating to sign it for the allure of getting 9 mil one year and testing free agency a year after that.

that's simply an insane move turning down 80 mil when you're a 22yo.

[GeorgeDillion]

22 y.o. and has been injured every year the past 4 years including in college. I would be shocked if Kyrie passed up the money.

I'm also in the trade Nash brigade, he's a nice guy but he's not worth it at this point. That $9.7 M can be used on someone who can actually contribute 70+ games instead of looking nice in a suit.

[myersia]

I am starting to think that this off-season will not be used to get a max player unless his name is LeBron (pipedream not going happen). Which brings me to my next point. I honestly want to see us resign Wesley Johnson to something like 5 year 20 mill, J. Farmar 5 year 20 mill, and X. Henry 3 year 12 million. I still think we need to trade J. Hill. As much as I love him he is injury prone and his value is high right now. Pau I am not sure if we should resign him. Flexibility is key. If he took something like a 2 year 16 million contract I'd consider him. But that's unlikely. Nick Young has a player option and will likely opt in. Not sure how much salary we would have after that but 2015 is more promising as far as FA's.

Also want to see S. Williams signed at a low price. All these guys committed to our team for almost nothing.

[milesfides]

there's no way kyrie is leaving guaranteed money on the table.

it only takes one freak injury to ruin a career and if kyrie is shoved 80 million dollars in his face, he's not hesitating to sign it for the allure of getting 9 mil one year and testing free agency a year after that.

that's simply an insane move turning down 80 mil when you're a 22yo.

Not insane at all...just have to have confidence and the desire for more than long term security in cleveland. If you think you're among the best players in the league, and you're looking at 5 years in a small market in a losing environment, then I don't think it's unreasonable at all.

It's not "turning down 80m when you're a 22 yo." It's turning down 80m in Cleveland because you want double that money and quadruple the fame in Los Angeles and win championships because you believe you're the next Kobe Bryant. And of what I've seen of Kyrie, I believe that describes him.

[milesfides]

^In addition, I'm not saying it's likely. I'm just saying Kyrie is worth clearing cap space for.

This summer, Brandon Tierney from CBS Sports Radio tweeted the following:

-"I've heard from someone in the know... Kyrie Irving not long for Cleveland"
-"I 100% stand by my position regarding Kyrie Irving and the Cavs. If you follow me, you know I am not reckless when it comes to such items..."
-"I never deleted an Irving tweet. Actually, my producer tweeted out my statement, as did others. The quote is attributed to me, and I own it."

This obviously created a ton of chatter in Cleveland, and Kyrie Irving didn't exactly squash it:
"I wish I knew "someone in the know" for all my facts, maybe I would go into journalism as well!!"
"Rumors are rumors"

Not exactly squashing it, right? I mean, what else is he supposed to say, he's a Cav for two more seasons.

Anyways, I would roll the dice for Kyrie. I think it's a good risk to save the capspace for him. Don't get me wrong, I'd take Russell Westbrook who's also a free agent at the same time in a heartbeat, who would be re-united with Kevin Love, teammate/roommate/possible lover. Then again, Kyrie and Kevin Love are both in the Uncle Drew commercials, so they're homeboys too.

But Russ is in a winning environment with a great future and he hasn't shown any signs of being disgruntled, so I'm guessing Kyrie would be a more realistic target. But either one of those guys are championship caliber guards who can succeed Kobe - who have the right "DNA" in Kobe's words.