Ryan Kelly Free Him From the Closet

[milesfides]

The Lakers are probably hoping Ryan Kelly makes the kind of jump that Dirk did after his first year. Meaning, not into MVP Dirk, but the 17.5 point, 6.5 rebound solid player.

Dirk's never been a great rebounder for a 4 - probably because he played more like a wing anyway. That's not really going to change for Kelly, because he plays like Dirk.

First, calm down. I'm talking overall skill set.

1. Range.
He can hit the three. 33% isn't great. It's pretty solid for a rookie who didn't play in a consistent system, without any healthy point guards to give the ball to him in his spots. Eye test showed me that Kelly was reaching for too many shots instead of shooting it in rhythm.

Why is that important? Because he's 7 feet tall. He's going to be matched up against a big who has to come all the way out, opening the floor for Kobe, Hill, and Randle. Also because of his height, he can get that shot off over anybody.

This is unique.

2. Playmaking
For a 7 footer to be able to pass like him is unique. 1.6 assists isn't amazing. In 22 minutes, a bit more impressive, in fact, his assist per minute is close to top 10 among power forwards, which is impressive for a guy who doesn't get the offense run through him...as the fourth option. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 2nd among all power forwards. His assist ratio, the percentage of his possessions that end up in an assist, is higher than Tim Duncan's or Kevin Love's - this isn't a just a shooter.

Why is that important? Because he's 7 feet tall. He can see the entire floor and pass over the defense. That means he'll be another playmaker on the floor, and his unselfishness will help get his teammates involved instead of just being a spot up shooter.

3. Ability to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket.

Block, coast to coast layup against the Spurs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7A7XlCZ-50

33% of Ryan Kelly's shots came right at the rim. 10% of Dirk's came at the rim. And Ryan Kelly isn't living in the post - he's on the perimeter. This means Kelly is attacking the basket, often. A 7-footer who is able to do that is very unique.

He can move without the ball:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUdvoj8mQuI

Or put it on the floor and get past his defender.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIMt1RG676s

All of the above happens in the NBA all the time. But not when you're a 7 footer.

Kelly steals the inbounds pass (cause he's 7 feet), then avoids a defender with a quick behind the back and a few big strides for the dunk.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cna7mcESLaU[/youtube]


Bottom line...

Ryan Kelly isn't that raw. He knows how to play the game, and he's got a little niceness (or nastiness) to his game. His biggest issue is he needs to get stronger - again, like Dirk. Not change his physique and mess up his game, but just get stronger and acclimated to the physicality after rookie year. And of course his shot needs to get better, despite obviously having a good stroke - again, like Dirk. That comes with summer training, learning how to get into rhythm within the speed of the game. But really, even his shooting numbers for a rookie are pretty good. I expect them to get even better.

The Lakers are very high on him, because if you combine all the skills he has, he's less Ryan Anderson, Rashard Lewis, Andrea Bargnani...and much more Dirk.

A legit 7-footer who plays the game like a guard. Pretty damn rare.

Obviously Dirk made that huge jump his sophomore year and became one of the greatest to ever play.

I'm excited to see what Kelly brings this year, because apparently he's been working his ass off every day. Confident guy who has high expectations of himself.

http://www.twcsportsnet.com/videos/2014 ... f-the-year


I know a lot of people want to start Randle right away. I think Randle would be a lot better coming off the bench and getting more shots and punishing second units.

I want to see Kelly playing 30mpg and getting plenty of touches.

Metta World Peace on Ryan Kelly:

"He's stronger than Kevin Durant was when he came in and can do basically the same things, but he has to start now."

I see more Dirk than Durant, but I think the point stands...free Kelly, we don't have much to lose, let's see if we got a major piece on our hands.

[Sofa King]

I thought you were reporting Ryan Kelly came out like Michael Sam

[SlimShady83]

Holy **** he is 7 foot? doesn't even look like compared to the other 7footers out there on TV lol

I've liked this guy since b4 the season started, last year someone posted videos of him b4 the season and I liked his game.

Sign him up Mitch! and the same goes for Wes/Mr X

[EArl]

Im proud of him for coming out. More power to him..
















Seriously though I like Machine gun's game. I wouldn't let him go either. He reminds me of a Ryan Anderson w/ more potential.

[ratra_1211]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtDTj7mGH0E[/youtube]

[The Prodigy]

Nothing to lose by bringing him back. He showed enough to merit a second look.

[crazyeights]

Was wondering this: does it have to be just one of Randle or Kelly gets minutes? Could they play together?

Assuming Hill is our starting center, would Randle and Kelly play together? Randle, if he's not banging in the post, seems like he's a slasher who can create kickouts for a guy like Kelly.

On defense, I feel like foot-speed wise Randle could cover the quicker forwards and Kelly can be guarding other stretch 4s or be down on the block for a little weakside D.

Might be a little wonky, but I think they could put time in together. Thoughts?

[EArl]

Randle looks like he can play sf for small stretches. If you put a stretch forward next to him like Kelly it will open up space for him allowing him to do more work in the paint.

[milesfides]

Barefoot 6'10", 7'0" in shoes. He's a F/C height.

Who has a similar skill set with that height? They're all elite players.

Even at the worst, Bargnani, before his injuries, was a pretty good player - and he never had Kelly's abilities to make plays, handle the ball, or penetrate.

If Kelly threw up 14-15 shots attempts he would almost average 20 points. It's that easy for those tall players who can shoot.

A good analogy is Parsons. I don't think Chandler is worth the max, but there's a reason why the Mavs went for him - he can easily put up 20 points with enough attempts. At 6'10" in shoes, Parsons could get his shot off against any small forward in the league.

These tall guys who can shoot the three, are decent at the free throw line, they will score efficiently - it's simple math and it's scalable with shot attempts.

But Parsons ability to make plays and use his length on defense - those are things that sets him above the average small forward. His numbers next year? 20-6-5. That's why the Mavs threw the max at him.

Parsons had similar if not worse numbers than Kelly his rookie season. He saw more minutes and more shot attempts, and he became very productive.

History has shown that there's a much higher rate of success with tall, skilled shooters than smaller, more athletic players.

If he gets 30 mpg and around 12 touches, I would guess Kelly would put up like 16, 5, and 3 assists. A legit 2nd, 3rd option. Especially because Lin and Kobe are going to get him some open looks.

[milesfides]

I think Hill, Randle, and Kelly would be a pretty interesting lineup against slower teams. It all depends on Randle, really, whether he can cover smaller players on defense.

[BEazy]

I agree Kelly is worth it in the long run. Sign him up Mitch!

[Tiesto_Lakers]

Kelly isn't even on the same level as Bargnani IMO. Bargnani (before injuries) was very quick for his size and was basically a SF in a C's body. Kelly is very slow and also has a slow shot release.

I think a better comparison for Kelly is Brad Miller, but with a slightly better outside shot and slightly worse passing skills.

[hermes]

i like kelly, he'll go far

[Tee212]

lol he said brad miller...miller is more spencer haws with the weight he put on.

[TyCobb]

Conditioning wise... can he handle 30 minutes a game? I don't think so.

I think realistic averages for him this upcoming season would be around 10-12 PPG and 4.5 RPG. An underrated aspect of Kelly's game is his ability to draw a foul. If he becomes the focal point of the offense off the bench, instead of Nick Young, then our team would be much more efficient.

[ALL HAIL]

I like Kelly. He is a unique talent, indeed.

Like I said in another post, if I was another team, with a big rebounding center (cough Houston), I would have stole him from the Lakers.

In the right situation, he could be phenomenal.

He's a player who has a lot of skill, marked weaknesses, and needs to be surrounded by certain types of guys to mask his inadequacies (much like Kyle Anderson in that respect).

But miles, come on dude ...

He's seven-feet tall and averaged 5 rebounds in 30 minutes ...




... in college.

He's a big who is allergic to rebounds.

You can't gloss over that.

[frozt]

17.5 a game rofl...

Also you said Dirk has never been a good rebounder for a four. Is that joke, fool put up like 20+/10 multiple seasons.

[The Prodigy]

Yeah I like Kelly but the Dirk comparisons and 20 PPG expectations are a bit far fetched.

[gts1]

I like Kelly a bunch... I think he flew a bit under the radar last year with all the injuries the team had, he seemed to be the guy that got plugged into whatever gap needed filling (not unlike Phil used to do with Walton) hard to be consistent under the circumstances

predictable playing time in the rotation should help him settle in nicely.. lot easier to play and expand your game when you know your role

[myersia]

I thought you were reporting Ryan Kelly came out like Michael Sam

Thought the same thing.