Julius Randle: Expectations?

[CountTheirRings]

At Kentucky: 15 ppg, 10 rpg, 50% FG, 70% FT

Three-part-question: Where do you see Randle's production for his rookie season? Beyond that? And, does he start his rookie season?

We've picked up some decent assets recently (Lin, Davis), but our roster is still going to be thirsty for production. How much of an impact will that added burden have on the rookie?

Just-For-Kicks Comparison to Current Starting PFs:

He's 6'9'' and 250 lbs with a 7 foot wingspan (per the Combine, it was listed at 6'11 at the LBJ camp and Hoops Summit so I assume it's barely there). Critics shout "undersized". The average wingspan for NBA starting PF's is well over 7 feet. Even traditionally undersized 4s like Millsap and B. Bass have an advantage.

The only starting PFs barely at, or barely under, 7 foot wingspan are Griffin, Love, and Thaddeus Young. Griffin's athleticism above the rim, high bball IQ, ball-handling, and passing acumen all make up for it. Love can spread the floor maniacally, which also makes up for any deficiency here. Finally, Young is not a traditional PF and plays 20-25 feet from the rim, so there's not much comparison to be had there. But Randle, from what we saw at Kentucky, is accustomed to playing in the post.

He's also often paralleled to Zach Randolph, but Z-Bo's wingspan approaches 7'5''. Their respective, inherent abilities to finish at the rim would be hugely affected by that kind of discrepancy.

But Randle is a man. He bullied bigger college defenders in the post with his powerful frame.

My biggest concern with Randle is at the other end of the floor, though, and his wingspan may be affecting him there. He's a relatively poor man-to-man defender, and with the current stretch-four trend in the NBA, that could be a huge issue. He also only averaged 0.8 blkpg, which is a low college stat for an athletic big like him.

Early estimation: I think he'll need to play in a twin-tower or strong post-duo to truly succeed (in a team-apparatus especially) where a bigger ally fill any capability void.

Take this all with a grain of salt, of course, as he's barely entering the NBA and obviously has years of development and play in order to reach his potential. Nonetheless, most of this was just for some predictability-context.

P.S. New to the forums. Die-hard Lakers fan though, especially engrossed with the team over the last 13 years.

[Kilroy]

ROY, League MVP and Finals MVP

[EArl]

You forgot MIP. that teammate award and humanitarian award.

He might snag coach of the year.

[PurpleBlood24]

I just want him to be healthy, and try to play a full 82 games season, injuries are a concern to me.

[KennyInLA]

Honestly, I just hope he'll stay healthy and learn as much as he possibly can. I would guess, in his first NBA season, Julius Randle will end up with averages of 10pts + 7rebs + 3assists + 0.5 blks.

With health, hard work, and a bit of luck on his side, I can see him being a 7-time All-Star or something like that.

I don't know if he'll start, but I figure he'll get at least 25-30 minutes per game this year.

[LApwnd]

i'll settle for ROY, as I have money on it so boozer better not be f'ing starting.

[Laker_Kid]

randle wouldve paired up nicely with bynum.

randle facing up and attacking the rim. while bynum backs up at the post. yin yang. too bad we'll never get to see it.

i think he and hill would mesh well also. hill would strive off randle cleaning up after him. randle's deficiency in rebounding will be covered by hill.

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[Beethoven]

I'm all for Randle, and I hope he maximizes his potential and becomes a real star on our team, but I don't have that great of an outlook on him, by watching his plays in college and this summer. He seems too limited on his attack to the basket, he seems to always make that basket by he jumps, the defense collapses on him, and then a split second he lands back on his feet he releases the ball to make a basket. Seems to be this is the main way he scores, which I dont think will fare well in NBA. He is very scoutable, so he better get more range by going to his weaker side and practicing on that , and as well as his ball handling when defense converges on to him. I dont know, if he puts in faithful practice he will become great, but dont most college players and rookies , what you see is what you get ? You dont fall upon players that often that really truly adapt and change their game for whatever they face. IT is usually they become mediocre or become these niche type players.

[Showtime3242]

I think Randle can be very good - in time. I was surprised by the Boozer signing as Randle needs to play thirty minutes a night and you have to see what Kelly can do too.

Maybe Boozer gets traded to a contender during the season and Randle gets more minutes as the season goes on.

[crazyeights]

I think Randle can be very good - in time. I was surprised by the Boozer signing as Randle needs to play thirty minutes a night and you have to see what Kelly can do too.

Maybe Boozer gets traded to a contender during the season and Randle gets more minutes as the season goes on.

It's against the rules to trade a player you were awarded via amnesty waivers.

[TyCobb]

I think Randle's scoring ability will make for an easy transition on offense, but his minutes will be dictated by his ability to stay healthy, turnovers, and his defense. He's a little wild with the ball in his hands, and I think that he'll settle down over time as he gains more experience, but in the beginning I think he'll be a little turnover prone. Defense is another area where he might get exploited early on, but you can say that for a majority of NBA rookies, especially those who can't even legally drink yet. He has the strength to battle down low defensively, but if the guy gets good positioning he's pretty much done for. He'll have to use his body, like he does on offense, to dictate where the opponent will work from.

The first year he'll probably be around 24-26 minutes per game... average something like 13 points, just under 7 rebounds, and 2 assists a game. Long-term I think he can be an 18 and 10 guy.

[Indy2LA]

Hate to be a buzzkill but I don't think he'll get enough playing time to be in consideration for the ROY. We didn't bring in Boozer for no reason. Carlos is going to start and I imagine he'll play pretty well. He's not a world beater but he can definitely handle 30+ minutes and score enough points to stay on the court and keep the starting job. I see Randle starting to break out and get starter minutes in his second or third year. Hopefully somebody like Kareem can help him with his post moves in the meantime so Booz doesn't stunt his growth.

[TruSkool]

he will be an OK player. maybe a future all-star, nothing more than that. he won't ever be a go-to player like randolph or aldridge. just a decent PF. nothing special, nothing whack. a little above average.

[Sofa King]

ROY, League MVP and Finals MVP

You forgot 6th Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, All Star MVP, and Coach of the Year.

[aaron_gray]

He's going to start browsing realgm and get 20,000 posts in one month

[Exodus]

I'm concerns about his turnovers, defense and getting in foul trouble.

I think he will be inconsistent this year. One game he will put up over 20 points and over 10 rebounds, then the next game we might see 8 points and 4 rebounds. I'm not expecting a ROY performance or putting up like numbers close to 20 and 10. I think he will be a spark off the bench. He will be a fan favorite. I'm not sure though the will get consistent minutes per game in his rookie season. I'm hoping for the best. He is a hard worker and determine, so he can always prove people wrong like me.

[Sofa King]

He's going to start browsing realgm and get 20,000 posts in one month

Mods would ban him for all the spam

[SlimShady83]

Just curious to know. when Randle drives to the basket, does he have the passing ability to pass back out to the open man? or does he just keep driving hoping to score or get fouled??

[TyCobb]

Yes, he definitely finds the open man. Quite a bit actually.

[leeprettyp]

12ppg 7rpg rookie year. We have a glut of PF on the roster so he may not get alot of minutes and shot attempts. BUt thats solid numbers for a rookie starter