AaronB wrote:toooskies wrote:AaronB wrote:
Let's not derail this thread with things not simple.
I would rather it die than degrade into a debate of complex trades.
The concept was always: if a team could improve by trading for a less valuable player but a better fit for their team, would they?
I would because the only thing I would care about is winning.
There are lots of "flip this guy and get back multiple assets" type of ideas, but those so rarely work out in any fashion.
I don't think the Cavs would think they're better with just WCJ. Possibly better as a starting group but worse in the 15 minutes a game where WCJ would be out there without Mobley.
So Orlando has to add value, whether that's #18 or Isaac or Black or somebody else.
The Magic are not going to add Isaac or Black, who both are much more valuable than either player.
I don't see #18 making sense for the Cavs as they are in win now. If WCJ does not make them better, which I would propose WCJ's 3 point shooting (he is a 37% shooter from 3) makes their guards much better, then it it does not make much sense for the Cavs.
WCJ's volume is not enough to create the gravity to play 4-out. It's enough to occasionally make teams pay for packing the paint, but they're still going to pack the paint. WCJ was a 28% 3-point shooter in the playoffs, he was not a difference-maker when it matters.
WCJ's career high in games played is 62. Allen has played 30% more games than WCJ over the span of WCJ's career.
Jarrett Allen has played roughly the same number of minutes over his career as WCJ and Isaac combined. In doing so he has produced nearly double the Win Shares and VORP as those two players combined. Last season he still had more Win Shares and VORP than both combined despite playing roughly the same minutes.
Allen was by far the best of the three in the playoffs this year, nearly producing more Win Shares and VORP as both Orlando players combined despite playing the fewest minutes of the three due to injury.
Isaac is injury-prone and on an expiring deal. He can't play starter minutes. You can't count on him. You can argue that Isaac might be the best player of all three when healthy-- I'd disagree, for me it's easily Allen-- but Isaac simply isn't ever healthy. As it is, Allen was a DPOY candidate (faded a bit down the stretch due to a hand injury he played through) and Isaac didn't play enough games to qualify for postseason awards. Even if Isaac plays extremely well and is extremely healthy in 2024-25, that just means you need to pay him and assume a bunch more health risk going forward.
It's fine if you and Orlando are high on Black and don't want to trade him, I just figured he's firmly in the unproven prospect tier given he wasn't even given a chance to contribute in the playoffs despite Orlando's other guards struggling. His 3-point shooting has a reasonable chance to be a mirage given his free throw shooting and college record, in which case he doesn't have much immediate value.
I'm sure the Cavs would take #18 and flip it into a player in another deal, so don't worry that the Cavs are win-now. We're just balancing value here. The Cavs can take #18, their own #20, and the salary of Niang or LeVert and turn it into another rotation player like DFS or Harrison Barnes.