Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[jayjaysee]

caruso isn’t my favorite target for Dallas but he is one of them..

THJ to Charlotte
Richards and Dallas’ 2025 first (top 6 protected) to Chicago
Caruso and Martin to Dallas

…I won’t add my opinion of the value on THJ, but Charlotte should be willing to take on the 3 million here for no incentive, right?

Doing it this way pushes Dallas a bit over the 110% matching so not sure if it’s legal that way? But maybe you just send Martin to Chicago and Curry back home (again) or include Powell to Charlotte? Still would be legal..

[Devilanche]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

Dejounte probably a better fit for them . But if they are aiming for the stars it really come back to bridges.

[Devilanche]

I expect at least several will have better career's than Dort, just gotta pick the right one

However, I also think Dort represents close to the top end of player you could get for the first, as opposed to being an exaggerated example to make a point of the lack of value high picks hold in this draft. If you are willing to eat a less palatable contract, I think you could get a guy like FVV (Not him specifically, but that level of player).

Yea the issue with this draft is that somehow for those picked 1-10, maybe not 5 of them may be better than peak Dort. And we should be expecting at least half of them to be better than Dort pre draft at least .

[Texas Chuck]

I expect at least several will have better career's than Dort, just gotta pick the right one

However, I also think Dort represents close to the top end of player you could get for the first, as opposed to being an exaggerated example to make a point of the lack of value high picks hold in this draft. If you are willing to eat a less palatable contract, I think you could get a guy like FVV (Not him specifically, but that level of player).

Yea the issue with this draft is that somehow for those picked 1-10, maybe not 5 of them may be better than peak Dort. And we should be expecting at least half of them to be better than Dort pre draft at least .

Not sure about this? Well ignoring Dort specifically and saying solid starter. Sometimes teams will take Shane Battier knowing they are drafting a guy with almost no chance at becoming a star, but feeling really confident of his floor. But mostly teams want shots at stars when drafting high right?

And are willing to do so even with guys with very low floors because they need that star upside to get out of the top of the lottery. So I could see teams in the lottery preferring to take a shot at a star even if they believe they only have a 30% chance that guy becomes more than a solid starter.

This is why teams draft 19 year olds instead of 22 year olds who are clearly better players atm.

Just as OKC with all their assets, a current star, and two guys they think have some secondary star potential, probably would prefer to keep the known over the maybe.

[jayjaysee]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

Dejounte probably a better fit for them . But if they are aiming for the stars it really come back to bridges.

Does Houston do..

Murray and OO for 3 and most all of their expirings?

Feels like good fits for Houston, but giving up 3rd might be a tough pitch. Add in the Sac first or the 2029 Atlanta first? Maybe enough, maybe too much?

Atlanta keeps Trae and hopes that Jalen/Sarr/Zacc develop?

[Devilanche]

I expect at least several will have better career's than Dort, just gotta pick the right one

However, I also think Dort represents close to the top end of player you could get for the first, as opposed to being an exaggerated example to make a point of the lack of value high picks hold in this draft. If you are willing to eat a less palatable contract, I think you could get a guy like FVV (Not him specifically, but that level of player).

Yea the issue with this draft is that somehow for those picked 1-10, maybe not 5 of them may be better than peak Dort. And we should be expecting at least half of them to be better than Dort pre draft at least .

Not sure about this? Well ignoring Dort specifically and saying solid starter. Sometimes teams will take Shane Battier knowing they are drafting a guy with almost no chance at becoming a star, but feeling really confident of his floor. But mostly teams want shots at stars when drafting high right?

And are willing to do so even with guys with very low floors because they need that star upside to get out of the top of the lottery. So I could see teams in the lottery preferring to take a shot at a star even if they believe they only have a 30% chance that guy becomes more than a solid starter.

This is why teams draft 19 year olds instead of 22 year olds who are clearly better players atm.

Just as OKC with all their assets, a current star, and two guys they think have some secondary star potential, probably would prefer to keep the known over the maybe.

It’s just acknowledging that these bunch of 19year old have higher chance of bust potential than previous year.

No comparison made for actual role players drafted later on as I believe those will more or less be the same just depends on fit and opportunity to produce.

Specifically for OKC fans , we get easily excited about the draft pretty much every year for obvious reasons and I didn’t this year.

Note - for clarity I can believe the 5th pick this year is worth say 8th or 9th pick in a normal year but I don’t believe there’s any noticeable difference in value from pick 15-20 onwards. Those are all the same to me.

[Devilanche]

So what about Trae to Houston? Something around Jalen/3?

Amen, Tari, Jabari, and Brooks help hide him defensively. Adams would be solid there too in some minutes.

Dejounte probably a better fit for them . But if they are aiming for the stars it really come back to bridges.

Does Houston do..

Murray and OO for 3 and most all of their expirings?

Feels like good fits for Houston, but giving up 3rd might be a tough pitch. Add in the Sac first or the 2029 Atlanta first? Maybe enough, maybe too much?

Atlanta keeps Trae and hopes that Jalen/Sarr/Zacc develop?

I would . But I’m high on OO . Unreasonably high still.

[jayjaysee]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

[giberish]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

IMO if SA is willing to trade filler + immediate salary relief + all future Atl 1sts for Trey, the Hawks could offer the filler + salary relief to the Bulls for LaVine and end up with a Murray/LaVine backcourt and have all their future 1sts (and the #1 this year).

I feel like that would be as good of an offer for LaVine as Chicago's going to get. Though having SA also send out their future Chicago 1st and have it end up back with the Bulls would be even better for them.

[HartfordWhalers]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

IMO if SA is willing to trade filler + immediate salary relief + all future Atl 1sts for Trey, the Hawks could offer the filler + salary relief to the Bulls for LaVine and end up with a Murray/LaVine backcourt and have all their future 1sts (and the #1 this year).

If they are betting on Murray/LaVine and still have Hunter and Capela etc, are their own picks as important as SAS picks this year? It feels more to me that the choice there would be 4 and 8 and of course we don't loe a step with LaVine replacing Trae and we got the #1 (and #4 and #8?) too so we are the 7th seed next year, better to get #4 now. (Even if that fails).

[Bornstellar]

I like Trae Young and think he would be a good get but I guarantee you the Spurs would never entertain trading ATL all of the assets they gave up for Murray to get Young, let alone adding more to it. The Hawks massively overpaid for Murray and that's their problem, not the Spurs' to try and even out for them

[jayjaysee]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

IMO if SA is willing to trade filler + immediate salary relief + all future Atl 1sts for Trey, the Hawks could offer the filler + salary relief to the Bulls for LaVine and end up with a Murray/LaVine backcourt and have all their future 1sts (and the #1 this year).

If you’re bringing in Zach, you’re probably shopping Trae for other teams picks not your own..

Banking on getting to the play-In easily. Maybe Murray/Lavine shine together, Jalen develops some more and you get to second round?.. all while banking on Sarr and the other team picks to actually raise your ceiling.. or trade for a star if it is working out.. maybe you are drafting Zacc or Topic or whoever from the Trae trade. Or just delaying the picks

[giberish]

I don’t think Trae is the one to trade.. If you put a good defense around him, he raises your floor it seems… But if they do..

Does taking on Zach make any sense? Give up a low value asset to turn the third teams contracts into Zach?

That works with Utah or Brooklyn pretty easily..

Or is it better to just not have Zach?

Bringing in a “star” who is also great friends with Murray and locked up for the pick debt years..

I like adding that leg to most Trae trades unless Atlanta plans to make Realgm happy and trade for their picks back.

IMO if SA is willing to trade filler + immediate salary relief + all future Atl 1sts for Trey, the Hawks could offer the filler + salary relief to the Bulls for LaVine and end up with a Murray/LaVine backcourt and have all their future 1sts (and the #1 this year).

If you’re bringing in Zach, you’re probably shopping Trae for other teams picks not your own..

Banking on getting to the play-In easily. Maybe Murray/Lavine shine together, Jalen develops some more and you get to second round?.. all while banking on Sarr and the other team picks to actually raise your ceiling.. or trade for a star if it is working out.. maybe you are drafting Zacc or Topic or whoever from the Trae trade. Or just delaying the picks

There's no guarantee Zach is really helping you win much. The team is still pretty marginal, just with a replacement name to sell to fans. Probably still just chasing play-in spots. From that point there's a non-trivial chance of moving into the top-4 so it's good to have your picks back so you don't miss out on a high pick in a stronger draft. Plus you keep the option for a mid-season tank open if a season isn't going well.

[HartfordWhalers]

But if you think your going to be bad, you don’t trade for Zach LaVine.

[jayjaysee]

IMO if SA is willing to trade filler + immediate salary relief + all future Atl 1sts for Trey, the Hawks could offer the filler + salary relief to the Bulls for LaVine and end up with a Murray/LaVine backcourt and have all their future 1sts (and the #1 this year).

If you’re bringing in Zach, you’re probably shopping Trae for other teams picks not your own..

Banking on getting to the play-In easily. Maybe Murray/Lavine shine together, Jalen develops some more and you get to second round?.. all while banking on Sarr and the other team picks to actually raise your ceiling.. or trade for a star if it is working out.. maybe you are drafting Zacc or Topic or whoever from the Trae trade. Or just delaying the picks

There's no guarantee Zach is really helping you win much. The team is still pretty marginal, just with a replacement name to sell to fans. Probably still just chasing play-in spots. From that point there's a non-trivial chance of moving into the top-4 so it's good to have your picks back so you don't miss out on a high pick in a stronger draft. Plus you keep the option for a mid-season tank open if a season isn't going well.

Yeah, I think Atlanta prefers “LaVine and Trae’s return” more than “right to tank”

But I seem to be in minority here on the value of tanking.

[jayjaysee]

Another bad idea. Running them.

Ingram, Vincent, 17th?, 2025 LAL and NOP firsts, 2027 NOP first to Atlanta
Trae and Rui to NOP
CJM to LAL

LAL gets a vet to pair with AD/LBJ. Locked up for the two years LBJ probably has left.

Atlanta gets Ingram to pretend/contend as well as 3-4 firsts. Give him the 3yr135-140 addon he’s eligible for..

NOP puts 3 defenders around Zion and Trae at all times and maybe it works.

[Godaddycurse]

Another bad idea. Running them.

Ingram, Vincent, 17th?, 2025 LAL and NOP firsts, 2027 NOP first to Atlanta
Trae and Rui to NOP
CJM to LAL

LAL gets a vet to pair with AD/LBJ. Locked up for the two years LBJ probably has left.

Atlanta gets Ingram to pretend/contend as well as 3-4 firsts. Give him the 3yr135-140 addon he’s eligible for..

NOP puts 3 defenders around Zion and Trae at all times and maybe it works.

Or would/should NOP retool with a Zion for Murray/#1 trade?

Okongwu
Zion
JJ
Bogdanovic
Trae

Sarr
Murphy
Ingram
Jones
Murray

[Texas Chuck]

I mean this seems super obvious to me, but also completely foreign to most of you, so maybe I'm the one way off basse.

But when you tell me a team selling a star player should look to trade for their own picks back rather than getting known high picks/prospects now, you are saying they should intentionally suck for the next 4-5 years and then hope they win the lottery with their own picks.

Just sorry, but that's a terrible sales pitch to a GM/governor/fanbase. Like just absolutely terrible. In order to recoup the value for your star you have to fail for years.

Never ever would I choose that path. Especially not as the GM who gets fired after doing all that losing to get the value.

Better to trade your player for actual value, accept the sunk cost of your own picks being gone and being able to start trying to both accumulate talent and assemble a team. Here you have to intentionally not bring in players who help develop these future picks increasing the likelihood they bust.

But I'm too aggressive for simply pointing out the Spurs don't hold the Hawks hostage here so ignore me. All your wildest dreams will come true.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I mean this seems super obvious to me, but also completely foreign to most of you, so maybe I'm the one way off basse.

But when you tell me a team selling a star player should look to trade for their own picks back rather than getting known high picks/prospects now, you are saying they should intentionally suck for the next 4-5 years and then hope they win the lottery with their own picks.

Just sorry, but that's a terrible sales pitch to a GM/governor/fanbase. Like just absolutely terrible. In order to recoup the value for your star you have to fail for years.

Never ever would I choose that path. Especially not as the GM who gets fired after doing all that losing to get the value.

Better to trade your player for actual value, accept the sunk cost of your own picks being gone and being able to start trying to both accumulate talent and assemble a team. Here you have to intentionally not bring in players who help develop these future picks increasing the likelihood they bust.

But I'm too aggressive for simply pointing out the Spurs don't hold the Hawks hostage here so ignore me. All your wildest dreams will come true.

I mean, yes, the best option for the Hawks is to intentionally suck for the next four years because they screwed themselves so badly that they have no real realistic paths to even the second round and have huge salary commitments coming up.

This is why teams shouldn't trade tons of good firsts for marginal players.

[SixersSince82]

I mean this seems super obvious to me, but also completely foreign to most of you, so maybe I'm the one way off basse.

But when you tell me a team selling a star player should look to trade for their own picks back rather than getting known high picks/prospects now, you are saying they should intentionally suck for the next 4-5 years and then hope they win the lottery with their own picks.

Just sorry, but that's a terrible sales pitch to a GM/governor/fanbase. Like just absolutely terrible. In order to recoup the value for your star you have to fail for years.

Never ever would I choose that path. Especially not as the GM who gets fired after doing all that losing to get the value.

Better to trade your player for actual value, accept the sunk cost of your own picks being gone and being able to start trying to both accumulate talent and assemble a team. Here you have to intentionally not bring in players who help develop these future picks increasing the likelihood they bust.

But I'm too aggressive for simply pointing out the Spurs don't hold the Hawks hostage here so ignore me. All your wildest dreams will come true.

I think you're just overstating it a bit. Having picks is valuable. Having picks that you can control can be more valuable. They could choose to go for the hard tank. Or they could choose to keep chasing the play-in only now they'd get to keep those late lottery picks and kind of split the baby, by being semi-competitive AND semi-rebuild.