LAC/DEN/MIN

[cliptastical]

Top 5 picks are a premium in this superstar driven league.

Kevin Love was a top five pick.

If you're talking "superstar" then I think you mean "Top Three" pick. They occasionally happen outside the top 2 or 3 picks, but its pretty rare. The three guys you mentioned, Love, Durant, blake Griffin, were #1, #2, and #1.

You are right. Top 3 picks are a premium in this league. The question that needs to be answered is whether the Wolves may end up with a top 3 pick in the presumably loaded 2012 draft.

There are seven West teams that look to miss the playoffs. Memphis, GSW, Houston, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento and Minnesota (no bias to the Clippers here). Out of these teams, which one are Wolves likely to beat in the next two years?

No offense to Wolves fans, I think your team will be great when Rubio comes over (2012/13?). You just need to be realistic on the value of your 2012 unprotected pick. It is like gold covered in diamonds to a playoff caliber team with zero chance at winning the lottery.

[cliptastical]

My god. 11 of the 12 teams are different, and your first response is to see OKC.

You''ve got to stop calling other people delusional. You're seeing whatever you want to see.

Fair enough. Which West coast team do you see at the bottom of the West in 2011 and 2012?

[shrink]

My god. 11 of the 12 teams are different, and your first response is to see OKC.

You''ve got to stop calling other people delusional. You're seeing whatever you want to see.

Fair enough. Which West coast team do you see at the bottom of the West in 2011 and 2012?

Again - who knows? Nobody would have said MIA would have been at the bottom of the East in 2008.

I think pretending like you know MIN won't pass teams (and further, pretending that means the pick means a "superstar") is just seeing what you want to see.

[Sofia]

Wolves do have some nice pieces to build on, but who are they going to surpass in the West right now? Everyone on the outside of the playoffs looking in has some nice building blocks in place, it's going to be hard to start leap frogging away from a top 6 pick.

Ugh. In two years? Let's look at actual evidence:

2008 Top 3 Lottery picks CHI - MIA - MIN .. 2010, CHI and MIA in the play-offs
2007 Top 3 Lottery Picks POR - OKC - ATL .. 2009, POR and ATL in the play-offs

Moreover - even if they are bad, as they have been, its no guarantee a high lottery pick. Predicting MIN will be bad two years from now flies in the face of the history of other bad teams.

Also, predicting that MIN won't pass other teams in the west is just as much hubris. Who picked CHI and MIA to be so bad two years earlier? Were they predicted to be likely to be leapfrogged?

Chi was a what 2% chance of drawing 1st pick? Lotto luck. Both Chi and Mia had blips that weren't true indicators of the teams at the time.

Chi - Picked up Rose, emergence of Noah, and wasn't 2008 when they had Ben Wallace and Drew Gooden? since then, they've played some tough D and were always a tough out.
Mia - Shaq left, D Wade was injured, they were a shell of were in the previous season, especially without Wade.
Por - In 2006/07 were a young and upcoming team, drafted Roy in 06 and were a supposed future dynasty with the talent they seemed to sweep from everyones feet. Pritchard was a elevated to god status. Kahn?
ATL - Horford, Crawford playing outstanding off the bench, improved J Smith and a prime Joe Johnson in a very shallow East.

[shrink]

Chi was a what 2% chance of drawing 1st pick? Lotto luck. Both Chi and Mia had blips that weren't true indicators of the teams at the time.

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

[cliptastical]

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

Thats no fun. Give me your prediction on where the Wolves will be in 2012 (and who they will beat in the West). Thats what this topic is all about. We gave you our rationale and you are deflecting.

At the end of the day it is all about ping pong balls. The more the better.

[Foye]

Wait let me think about it...

[shrink]

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

Thats no fun. Give me your prediction on where the Wolves will be in 2012 (and who they will beat in the West). Thats what this topic is all about. We gave you our rationale and you are deflecting.

Ugh. Your "rationale" was that the pick was "worth three Kevin Loves" and you talked about the pick being LeBron and Kevin Durant.

Your "rationale" is about your own wish fulfillment, where you are able to predict .. two years in advance, no less .. that

1. The Wolves are the worst team in the West
2. Every other West team stays in front of them (your mistake - East teams in lottery too)
3. The Wolves win a lottery spot high enough to get a superstar
4. A superstar of LeBron/Durant status is available in the draft
5. You identify him and select him with the pick
6. He develops into one of the biggest superstars in the game.

None of these steps is a certainty, and some are not even likely. The Clippers need to hit on all of these, and the multiplicative chances of getting through all six are low.

As long as you continue to value the pick in this way, like your powerball ticket is automatically the winning powerball ticket, people are going to roll their eyes when you talk about "rationales."

[Esohny]

I like this trade for the Clippers and for Denver.

No way we would do the deal involving Kevin Love for DeAndre Jordan and the Wolves Unprotected pick though. That pick alone is worth three Kevin Loves. We can live with Jordan and a free agent center for now and use the Minnesota pick to land someone far more talented next year.

[john2jer]

0 interest in arguing with delusional Clipper fans. But this trade is just flat out bad for the Wolves, and LOL at DeAndre somehow starting. Cut the Wolves out. This is really two seperate trades combined into one, just leave it at Denver and LA.

[shrink]

I've got no problem with Clippers hoping the unprotected 2012 pick is the next LeBron.

I think its silly though to value it that way on the trade board.

[cliptastical]

I've got no problem with Clippers hoping the unprotected 2012 pick is the next LeBron. I think its silly though to value it that way on the trade board.

Apparently you do have a problem with how Clipper fans value unprotected draft picks from perennially bad teams. Fair enough - whatever gets you through the night.

I never said that the pick was guaranteed to be a LeBron or a Durant. You misread what I said. My point is that there is a very real possibility that the pick could be very high - even top 3 (and should be valued there). It is a very rare situation in the NBA, where another team has an unprotected pick that could realistically be so high. We had to sacrifice Marko Jaric to get it and now we get to enjoy the fruits of that sacrifice (thanks Sammy).

The NBA is driven by superstars that are drafted top 3. The Clippers have a chip in the big game. Wolves fans want us to give that up for Kevin Love. LMFAO.

Your points on where the Wolves will end up are based on zero evidence. You have no information to assume the Wolves will improve at a greater rate than any other West Coast team. Yet you still dream that in two years this franchise will have completed a massive turnaround and be out of the basement. Good luck with that. I just thought you may have wanted it back, but I did not realize that the Wolves have no need for their 2012 pick. They are totally solid right now. See you in the Playoffs guys.

[john2jer]

I've got no problem with Clippers hoping the unprotected 2012 pick is the next LeBron. I think its silly though to value it that way on the trade board.

Apparently you do have a problem with how Clipper fans value unprotected draft picks from perennially bad teams. Fair enough - whatever gets you through the night.

I never said that the pick was guaranteed to be a LeBron or a Durant. You misread what I said. My point is that there is a very real possibility that the pick could be very high - even top 3 (and should be valued there). It is a very rare situation in the NBA, where another team has an unprotected pick that could realistically be so high. We had to sacrifice Marko Jaric to get it and now we get to enjoy the fruits of that sacrifice (thanks Sammy).

The NBA is driven by superstars that are drafted top 3. The Clippers have a chip in the big game. Wolves fans want us to give that up for Kevin Love. LMFAO.

Your points on where the Wolves will end up are based on zero evidence. You have no information to assume the Wolves will improve at a greater rate than any other West Coast team. Yet you still dream that in two years this franchise will have completed a massive turnaround and be out of the basement. Good luck with that. I just thought you may have wanted it back, but I did not realize that the Wolves have no need for their 2012 pick. They are totally solid right now. See you in the Playoffs guys.

This is where you're delusional. Please find one Wolves fan that has said they'd trade Kevin Love for that pick. You won't find it in this thread. LMFAO. The Wolves would rather have Kevin Love than that pick. But to assume the Wolves will have a top 3 pick in 2012, you must assume they'll have a top 3 pick in 2011 as well, right? You don't think adding Ricky Rubio and a 2011 top 3 pick, on top of their cap space won't push them out of a top 3 pick in 2012?

I feel confident that the Wolves won't have a top 3 pick in 2011, though, which means greater improvement and less likelihood that they'll be a bottom 3 team in 2012.

[cliptastical]

This is where you're delusional. Please find one Wolves fan that has said they'd trade Kevin Love for that pick. You won't find it in this thread. LMFAO. The Wolves would rather have Kevin Love than that pick. But to assume the Wolves will have a top 3 pick in 2012, you must assume they'll have a top 3 pick in 2011 as well, right? You don't think adding Ricky Rubio and a 2011 top 3 pick, on top of their cap space won't push them out of a top 3 pick in 2012?

I feel confident that the Wolves won't have a top 3 pick in 2011, though, which means greater improvement and less likelihood that they'll be a bottom 3 team in 2012.

And you call me delusional. Find me one fan of basketball (that is not a Wolves fan) that actually thinks Minnesota will not be the worst team in the West come 2012.

I think the cold has frozen your brain.

[loflin3hree5ive]

Nobody knows what Minnesota's record will be after the next two seasons. However, given Minny's short-term outlook, it is safe to say that pick is far more valuable than 1st round picks in the past that have been used to acquire high caliber players. Take that for what it's worth.

Either side claiming that the pick will or will not be valuable is debating something totally irrelevant. The best way to prove the value of the pick is to compare it to future draft picks that have previously been traded. Has there ever been a team that's been stuck in the bottom ten of the league for five years straight who has traded their unprotected pick? If so, what did they get for it? Find a precedent and go from there. Those are the answers you guys should be looking for instead of debating over speculation. I'm just saying...

[john2jer]

This is where you're delusional. Please find one Wolves fan that has said they'd trade Kevin Love for that pick. You won't find it in this thread. LMFAO. The Wolves would rather have Kevin Love than that pick. But to assume the Wolves will have a top 3 pick in 2012, you must assume they'll have a top 3 pick in 2011 as well, right? You don't think adding Ricky Rubio and a 2011 top 3 pick, on top of their cap space won't push them out of a top 3 pick in 2012?

I feel confident that the Wolves won't have a top 3 pick in 2011, though, which means greater improvement and less likelihood that they'll be a bottom 3 team in 2012.

And you call me delusional. Find me one fan of basketball (that is not a Wolves fan) that actually thinks Minnesota will not be the worst team in the West come 2012.

I think the cold has frozen your brain.

As WG said, before deleting his post, most fans don't try and predict records two years out, when you consider the jumps teams like Memphis, OKC, Miami, Chicago, and others have made recently.

Cold? It's been beautiful here this year. I think the sun has fried your brain and turned you into a pansey. Man up, sally!

[jballer_13]

I'm just curious, why is Minny's rank in the West so important to the argument? There are a number of teams in the East that could be worse... Cavs, Raps, Nets, Pistons come to mind. And who knows how Denver will look post-Melo. So much can happen in the next 2 seasons to completely shift a team's fortunes. What if Paul and Melo get traded East then Nash & Timmy finally break down?

Point being, there is no way to truly predict what will happen right this second, so obviously LAC fans will overvalue the pick and MN fans will undervalue it. No trade for that pick should even be discussed for at least another year.

[cliptastical]

Nobody knows what Minnesota's record will be after the next two seasons. However, given Minny's short-term outlook, it is safe to say that pick is far more valuable than 1st round picks in the past that have been used to acquire high caliber players. Take that for what it's worth.

Either side claiming that the pick will or will not be valuable is debating something totally irrelevant. The best way to prove the value of the pick is to compare it to future draft picks that have previously been traded. Has there ever been a team that's been stuck in the bottom ten of the league for five years straight who has traded their unprotected pick? If so, what did they get for it? Find a precedent and go from there. Those are the answers you guys should be looking for instead of debating over speculation. I'm just saying...

I agree completely.

I doubt there will be many examples though. Not too many teams have been foolish enough to trade an unprotected pick when they live at the top of the draft.

I just think some Wolves fans are bitter. I would be too if I traded a quasi-superstar like Sam Cassell for a chump like Marko Jaric and a future top 5 unprotected pick. You can't blame Clippers fans though. All you can do is pay the price (Rubio anybody?) and move on.

[john2jer]

Sam Cassell was never a quasi-superstar. He was a one time all-star. Let's not over-rate Sam I Am.

And the Wolves didn't "live at the top of the draft" when they traded him. They were one year removed from a Western Conference Finals run when they made that trade. Had Sam Cassell actually been healthy, they probably would have beaten the Lakers and had a chance at taking down the Pistons.

And it wasn't an unprotected pick that was traded. It wa a heavily protected pick in which the protection will likely eventually run out to become an unprotected pick.

Seriously, are you new to the game? Your grasp of even recent history is weak.

[cliptastical]

I'm just curious, why is Minny's rank in the West so important to the argument? There are a number of teams in the East that could be worse... Cavs, Raps, Nets, Pistons come to mind. And who knows how Denver will look post-Melo. So much can happen in the next 2 seasons to completely shift a team's fortunes. What if Paul and Melo get traded East then Nash & Timmy finally break down?

Point being, there is no way to truly predict what will happen right this second, so obviously LAC fans will overvalue the pick and MN fans will undervalue it. No trade for that pick should even be discussed for at least another year.

Minnesota's rank in the West is important because by ending up at the bottom of the West will generate many losses to better West coast teams. You can't predict records, just rankings. The West is brutal right now. Minnesota may be a playoff team in the East, but in the West they are going to lose many games. Thats just the way the NBA is designed. Most teams in the East will have inflated victories by playing other East coast teams. Minnesota will have to work very hard for every victory. There are no free passes in the West.