Hawks trade #1 to Spurs for #4 and #8

[wemby]

Hawks trade:
#1 pick
+ future pick(s) and/or player

Spurs trade:
#4 pick
#8 pick

Spurs get their new French twin towers with Wemby and Sarr. Hawks jump start their rebuild with two high lottery picks.

LOL no thanks

I can see why the Spurs love this

Really? Then let me know, because I have no clue why they would trade for 1 when they get the exact same caliber of player they'd be getting at 4 or 8: you can probably get Risacher/Castle/Buzelis at 4 and Dillingham/Sheppard at 8, which would all be likely targets if the Spurs had no. 1. Sarr doesn't fit with Wemby, and isn't a high enough caliber of prospect to warrant overlooking the bad fit.

[wemby]

I personally see this draft as more of an Irving draft than a Bennett one. The 2011 draft had four future HoFers and three other All-Stars, but only one of those guys went in the top-eight. By some definitions, the 2011 draft was the best of the decade (especially if Young doesn't progress further). In some ways, it was a horrible draft because GMs had no consensus on who the best guys where. The resultant talent can be put against that of any other draft and hold its own. But GMs still went for the busts over them.

There's a lot of talent in this draft, and saying this year is like if the top 5 to 10 guys were removed from a normal draft is absurd. But what talent is going to pan out is the question. Having two chances to find one of those eventual diamonds seem much better than having one earlier chance.

You're overselling this draft class, but I do agree it's getting trashed way too much for the lack of a true no. 1, but, looking at the past few classes (21, 22, 23), outside of the top 3 you'd find the same caliber of prospect than you'd be getting here. Which is exactly where the Spurs are picking, so it's the worst time ever to use 4 and 8 to jump into 1.

[wemby]

I don't think there's any way the Spurs do this. The gap between 1 and 4 isn't large enough.

See, I think they’d be happy to. If his draft is as thin as is reported, then the only way to ensure you can get the one guy you think could be something is to draft number 1.

If SA thinks there’s 8 or so guys that are all pretty equal and could all equally help their ball club, then i’d agree with you.

This draft was neer reported as being "thin", if anything it's flat as in there's not much difference between no. 1 and no. 5, and the top pick could very well be different for every team. On top of that, the Spurs are likely the worst destination for the player most commonly mocked at no. 1, so I'd rather take 2 bites at the apple AND get better fits than one more expensive no. 1 who isn't a clearly better talent.

[DayofMourning]

If the Hawks traded away another top pick trying to get value and missed again.....man theyd never live it down.

[Texas Chuck]

If the Hawks traded away another top pick trying to get value and missed again.....man theyd never live it down.

Nah you can't play scared like that. You have to make the decision for your team for now. You can't worry about Luka Doncic. You just compound mistakes if you avoid making the best decision because you are worried about perception.

[DayofMourning]

If the Hawks traded away another top pick trying to get value and missed again.....man theyd never live it down.

Nah you can't play scared like that. You have to make the decision for your team for now. You can't worry about Luka Doncic. You just compound mistakes if you avoid making the best decision because you are worried about perception.

Youre right, but this trade idea seems like more of the same. Sarr might be that mismatch type player you need. Why trade out of that?

[Texas Chuck]

If the Hawks traded away another top pick trying to get value and missed again.....man theyd never live it down.

Nah you can't play scared like that. You have to make the decision for your team for now. You can't worry about Luka Doncic. You just compound mistakes if you avoid making the best decision because you are worried about perception.

Youre right, but this trade idea seems like more of the same. Sarr might be that mismatch type player you need. Why trade out of that?

Oh I'm not claiming the best move is to trade down. I don't know enough about the prospects to say. I'm just talking about the process.

[Richard4444]

Just for fun, i went ahead and compared #1 to #4 and #8 in the last five drafts...

Wembanyama vs Amen Thompson and Jarace Walker

Banchero vs Keegan Murray and Dyson Daniels

Cunningham vs Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner

Anthony Edwards vs Patrick Williams and Obi Toppin

Zion vs DeAndr Hunter vs Jaxson Hayes

So ya LOL, no thanks.....

Except that's silly, because this year picking 1 isn't much different to picking 4. Not every draft is the same.

This is not true. In 2020 draft it was a five man race for #1, Edwards, Wiseman, Lamelo, Killian, and Avdija and this is not even including Haliburton who was protected to be a mid to late lottery talent.

3 man race (Edwards, Wiseman, and LaMelo).

[wemby]

3 man race (Edwards, Wiseman, and LaMelo).

All those guys would go top 3 in this class.

[Scoot McGroot]

I don't think there's any way the Spurs do this. The gap between 1 and 4 isn't large enough.

See, I think they’d be happy to. If his draft is as thin as is reported, then the only way to ensure you can get the one guy you think could be something is to draft number 1.

If SA thinks there’s 8 or so guys that are all pretty equal and could all equally help their ball club, then i’d agree with you.

This draft was neer reported as being "thin", if anything it's flat as in there's not much difference between no. 1 and no. 5, and the top pick could very well be different for every team. On top of that, the Spurs are likely the worst destination for the player most commonly mocked at no. 1, so I'd rather take 2 bites at the apple AND get better fits than one more expensive no. 1 who isn't a clearly better talent.

Oh. Ok. Well, if they have 2 bites they'd like to take, it sure would stink if they went in the top 3, and didn't get to take any of the bites they wanted. That's really the only point I'm making. There's always value in having an earlier selection and having the best likelihood to draft the player/s you would prefer to take, rather than just taking the best of what's left.

[Snakebites]

See, I think they’d be happy to. If his draft is as thin as is reported, then the only way to ensure you can get the one guy you think could be something is to draft number 1.

If SA thinks there’s 8 or so guys that are all pretty equal and could all equally help their ball club, then i’d agree with you.

This draft was neer reported as being "thin", if anything it's flat as in there's not much difference between no. 1 and no. 5, and the top pick could very well be different for every team. On top of that, the Spurs are likely the worst destination for the player most commonly mocked at no. 1, so I'd rather take 2 bites at the apple AND get better fits than one more expensive no. 1 who isn't a clearly better talent.

Oh. Ok. Well, if they have 2 bites they'd like to take, it sure would stink if they went in the top 3, and didn't get to take any of the bites they wanted. That's really the only point I'm making. There's always value in having an earlier selection and having the best likelihood to draft the player/s you would prefer to take, rather than just taking the best of what's left.

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

[Scoot McGroot]

This draft was neer reported as being "thin", if anything it's flat as in there's not much difference between no. 1 and no. 5, and the top pick could very well be different for every team. On top of that, the Spurs are likely the worst destination for the player most commonly mocked at no. 1, so I'd rather take 2 bites at the apple AND get better fits than one more expensive no. 1 who isn't a clearly better talent.

Oh. Ok. Well, if they have 2 bites they'd like to take, it sure would stink if they went in the top 3, and didn't get to take any of the bites they wanted. That's really the only point I'm making. There's always value in having an earlier selection and having the best likelihood to draft the player/s you would prefer to take, rather than just taking the best of what's left.

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

Ok.

But, if you need the 1 to draft the guy you want, if you wait until draft night, you can't really make that trade after he's already gone at 1, ya know?

[Snakebites]

Oh. Ok. Well, if they have 2 bites they'd like to take, it sure would stink if they went in the top 3, and didn't get to take any of the bites they wanted. That's really the only point I'm making. There's always value in having an earlier selection and having the best likelihood to draft the player/s you would prefer to take, rather than just taking the best of what's left.

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

Ok.

But, if you need the 1 to draft the guy you want, if you wait until draft night, you can't really make that trade after he's already gone at 1, ya know?

I do. I just can’t remember a time any team ever actually did what you’re describing. People trade future picks all the time, but once the order is set you tend to see teams waiting until draft day.

And this is predicated on the assumption that the Spurs even have one guy who’s clearly above 3 others on their board. Hardly a fair assumption in this pool.

It’s fair to discuss the feasibility of a trade.

[wemby]

Oh. Ok. Well, if they have 2 bites they'd like to take, it sure would stink if they went in the top 3, and didn't get to take any of the bites they wanted. That's really the only point I'm making. There's always value in having an earlier selection and having the best likelihood to draft the player/s you would prefer to take, rather than just taking the best of what's left.

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

Ok.

But, if you need the 1 to draft the guy you want, if you wait until draft night, you can't really make that trade after he's already gone at 1, ya know?

Like Snakebites says, if anything you should wait until ou have a more clear picture of who is going where, and the combine isn't even over, you have all the workouts and interviews to go through, gather intel, and a month and a half to make a decision if you fall in love with a prospect you fear will be gone by 4, which I don't think is likely the case. If we were talking a 2022 class kind of draft, I'd do 4+8 in a heartbeat because there was a clear tier break after 3, now it's a crapshoot who is better between Risacher/Buzelis/Cody Williams/Holland or Topic/Dillingham/Sheppard/Castle. That's 8 players who the Spurs are guaranteed to get 2 of, and likely it won't come to their last option since Sarr and Clingan are in that mix, maybe Knecht as well.

[Texas Chuck]

And this is predicated on the assumption that the Spurs even have one guy who’s clearly above 3 others on their board. Hardly a fair assumption in this pool.

I operate under the assumption that every single team has a draft board with players definitely ranked in a specific order. And even if they say we don't see a huge difference in talent between this section of our board(this would tend to not be at the top but rather further down), we still prefer player X over player Y over player Z for reasons A, B, C, & D.

I think its easy and self-serving for draftniks to talk about tiers. Because no matter how a draft turns out they can claim to be right. I think if a scout came to a GM or a GM came to a governor and was like just throw a dart between these 5 guys, they might be looking for a new job, and they absolutely should be looking for a new job. You are there to make calls.

[Snakebites]

And this is predicated on the assumption that the Spurs even have one guy who’s clearly above 3 others on their board. Hardly a fair assumption in this pool.

I operate under the assumption that every single team has a draft board with players definitely ranked in a specific order. And even if they say we don't see a huge difference in talent between this section of our board(this would tend to not be at the top but rather further down), we still prefer player X over player Y over player Z for reasons A, B, C, & D.

I think its easy and self-serving for draftniks to talk about tiers. Because no matter how a draft turns out they can claim to be right. I think if a scout came to a GM or a GM came to a governor and was like just throw a dart between these 5 guys, they might be looking for a new job, and they absolutely should be looking for a new job. You are there to make calls.

Absolutely. Every team has an order.

But the gap in the perceived value of those players is variable, right? Unless you think nobody ever trades down unless they’re sure they’re getting their top guy anyway.

[Scoot McGroot]

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

Ok.

But, if you need the 1 to draft the guy you want, if you wait until draft night, you can't really make that trade after he's already gone at 1, ya know?

I do. I just can’t remember a time any team ever actually did what you’re describing. People trade future picks all the time, but once the order is set you tend to see teams waiting until draft day.

And this is predicated on the assumption that the Spurs even have one guy who’s clearly above 3 others on their board. Hardly a fair assumption in this pool.

It’s fair to discuss the feasibility of a trade.

Sure. But sometimes draft picks are traded before draft night (and after the lottery). You're point is fair. But also, the point that you can't wait until draft night and make a trade after the first pick, if the guy you wanted goes first, etc, is a fair one, too, no?

[Texas Chuck]

But the gap in the perceived value of those players is variable, right? Unless you think nobody ever trades down unless they’re sure they’re getting their top guy anyway.

It's definitely variable. But its not negligible. Not in the top of any draft. Which is what has been repeated a ton. I get a lot of it comes from fans with the magic draft tiers where all players are the same until the pick after ours. But its gone beyond that this year.

[Scoot McGroot]

This is fine in theory but these trades generally aren’t made before the draft. They’re made during the draft when it’s known who you’re getting.

Ok.

But, if you need the 1 to draft the guy you want, if you wait until draft night, you can't really make that trade after he's already gone at 1, ya know?

Like Snakebites says, if anything you should wait until ou have a more clear picture of who is going where, and the combine isn't even over, you have all the workouts and interviews to go through, gather intel, and a month and a half to make a decision if you fall in love with a prospect you fear will be gone by 4, which I don't think is likely the case. If we were talking a 2022 class kind of draft, I'd do 4+8 in a heartbeat because there was a clear tier break after 3, now it's a crapshoot who is better between Risacher/Buzelis/Cody Williams/Holland or Topic/Dillingham/Sheppard/Castle. That's 8 players who the Spurs are guaranteed to get 2 of, and likely it won't come to their last option since Sarr and Clingan are in that mix, maybe Knecht as well.

Sure. Add to the initial post "hypothetically, on June 15, SA has 3 guys they rate higher than the rest of the draft....and they offer 4/8 for 1...." etc.

Does that work now? I would assume, as Chuck is describing, that even if the players are relatively equal, that teams still have a preference, and probably would list guys 1-8, rather than just "all these guys are exactly equal as our top 8, and at draft pick 4, we'll just use a random number generator to get our guy...". And what if that top tier for them is just 3? Or 2? Or they think, while a lot of guys are equally talented, there's 2 that could REALLY fit us for what we want?

Because, I'm sure every person in the Spurs organization would be fired if they told you "the top 8 is a crapshoot". They will have strong opinions as to who they want, and in what order, by draft night.

[Snakebites]

But the gap in the perceived value of those players is variable, right? Unless you think nobody ever trades down unless they’re sure they’re getting their top guy anyway.

It's definitely variable. But its not negligible. Not in the top of any draft. Which is what has been repeated a ton. I get a lot of it comes from fans with the magic draft tiers where all players are the same until the pick after ours. But it’s gone beyond that this year.

It’s not negligible, but in a draft like this it is probably smaller than the value of the 8th pick.

Ands assuming the Spurs preferred choice is even a guy likely to be picked in the top 3. This is a draft where every teams top 4 will diverge more than a typical draft.

I don’t see the deal hitting the mark. And it’s not just about getting “2 bites at the apple” either. Teams in the lottery generally have multiple needs.