Official: Afflalo to Denver for Fournier, 56th pick

[j-ragg]

Magic fans overvalued blah blah blah.

If we overvalued him then so did everyone else on these boards.

PLENTY of people agreed we should use him to trade up with the 12th, perhaps to Sacremento for 8th/expiring.

Fact is, this isn't a board full of GMs. Real life GMs hold his value different i guess. Still surprised a little bit at it but hopefully they see something in Fournier.

[vannzee]

Which would have been the better deal?

Afflalo to Denver for Fournier and second round pick

or Afflalo to whoever for a 1st round pick in the 20's and a second round pick?

(That later is what I was thinking was Afflalo's value)

[Mykhyn]

The title is: "Official: Afflalo to Denver for Fournier, 56th pick" (with a TPE implied). That's the trade we can evaluate. At this point there is no indication of a larger trade except that it's theoretically possible.

You might as well say "we can't evaluate this deal until we see whether Orlando trades the 56th pick to somebody else tonight". No, that would be a separate trade, just like "trading" the TPE would.

Summary of my thoughts: Take the names of the pieces out of it. Orlando just traded A for B. Is that good value? What they do in a subsequent trade of B for C does not affect the valuation of the previous trade.

You're assigning 0 value to the options that this has opened up for them. That fact alone makes your evaluation of the trade flawed and incomplete.

EVERY trade opens up options. You can always use pieces acquired in one trade, later in another trade, whether it's a TPE or a pick or a player. (There's nothing magical about TPEs that excludes them from a similar analysis.) By that standard we can never evaluate anything in isolation.

And, as I said in an earlier post:

They already had loads of space next year, and it really doesn't matter so much that they clear space this year. Any "unbalanced salary" trade could easily have been "made now, official in July" just like the Asik trade at the moment.

What options did it open up, really?

The ability to take on money in a trade and the ability to max out a player, ie Bledsoe while still getting something resembling a defensive 4, like Ed davis.

And you are partly correct. Nothing should be evaluated in isolation, especially at the very beginning of the offseason.

[loserX]

And you are partly correct. Nothing should be evaluated in isolation, especially at the very beginning of the offseason.

But then we don't get to be reactionary! What fun is that

[Mykhyn]

For the record, I did not...

Interesting question. The answer depends on how you're looking at it. From my perspective...

1. AA has never been an all-star, but he is a good SG. Coaches love him. He defends and can shoot the three. Good bball IQ. Good size. Solid character. Willing passer. Can play small ball SF. AA would likely be the starting SG on about 20 NBA teams.

2. AA is going to be 29 years old at the start of next season. He's at an age where most SG's perform at their peak level, but usually begin falling off in another year or two. Accordingly, he would be more valuable to win now teams compared to rebuilding teams.

3. AA was arguably the best player on a young Orlando team that won only 23 games this season. On a championship level team, AA would fit in as the 4th best starter.

4. AA's contract situation has him getting $7.6M next season with a player option for $7.8M the following season. So while he's currently on a favorable contract, it may be an expiring contract. This uncertainty would tend to factor against Orlando's return should they want to trade him.

5. How Orlando values AA likely depends on who they draft this June. Currently armed with the 3rd pick, at least before the ping pong ball draft raffle, either Exum or Smart would make an excellent pairing with Oladipo. On the other hand, either Parker or Randle would be a great fit next to Vucevic. Orlando has options and is well positioned in this draft.

Personally, if Orlando trades AA, and that's a big if, I think AA nets Orlando one first round draft pick or a good prospect. Maybe they manage to squeeze a modest prospect and a late first out of the deal. They may also be required to take back an expiring contract depending on who they trade with.

For the record you overvalued Afflalo a lot too.

Really? Orlando got a prospect, a late 2nd, salary cap relief and maybe a TPE. I think I pretty much nailed it.

You said a 1st or a "good" prospect or a 1st and a modest prospect and they may be required to take back an expiring.

How is that a C-D level prospect and an extremely late 2nd?

[blind prophet]

This has to of been the most inflated value of an asset by a fan base on real gm....

Where's the hall of fame for hometown inflation thread at?

We need one.

[basketballwacko2]

I wouldn't necessarily put too much stock into the "Orlando clears salary" part. They already had loads of space next year, and it really doesn't matter so much that they clear space this year. Any "unbalanced salary" trade could easily have been "made now, official in July" just like the Asik trade at the moment.

So you're thinking some other player might get added by Denver? Orlando needs to meet the min payroll so they'll be adding someone from somewhere.

[loserX]

I wouldn't necessarily put too much stock into the "Orlando clears salary" part. They already had loads of space next year, and it really doesn't matter so much that they clear space this year. Any "unbalanced salary" trade could easily have been "made now, official in July" just like the Asik trade at the moment.

So you're thinking some other player might get added by Denver? Orlando needs to meet the min payroll so they'll be adding someone from somewhere.

No, sorry if I wasn't clear. I don't think Denver will be adding a player, I just don't think Orlando getting a TPE isn't all that big a plus for them at this point. With all the cap they have next year, and the way offseason deals are timed, there are relatively few deals they can do with it that they couldn't do without it.

[basketballwacko2]

This is a lot of consternation over a relatively minor deal isn't it?

[basketballwacko2]

No, sorry if I wasn't clear. I don't think Denver will be adding a player, I just don't think Orlando getting a TPE isn't all that big a plus for them at this point. With all the cap they have next year, and the way offseason deals are timed, there are relatively few deals they can do with it that they couldn't do without it.

Ok yeah I'd agree no point in mentioning a TPE to Orlando, TPE's are over rated anyhow most expire worthless.

[bondom34]

Good, but short read:
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/6/26/5 ... -black-box

[tiderulz]

So did Denver trade #11, #56 and Evan Fournier, for nothing?

[Smitty731]

Orlando received the Andre Iguodala TPE worth 9 million from Denver in the trade. So what happens to that TPE now, since it's been used does it disappear, or can Orlando use it in another deal?

Orlando gets a TPE the size of Afflalo's contract, though it really does not matter, because they would have to renounce their TPEs to use their cap space.

Orlando didn't get the full TPE. And they actually won't even see the TPE from Afflalo because they will be under the cap, so the TPE will disappear.

For clarification, Denver absorbed Afflalo in to part of the Iguodala TPE (they are left with just over 2.3 million in that TPE). They also created a new TPE for Fournier in the amount of just over 1.4 million.

For fun (or at least I think it is!), Afflalo was traded for Iguodala. Iguodala was traded and created a TPE. Afflalo was then absorbed by that Iguodala TPE. Interesting!

[JameerNelsonFan]

Henny hasnt made a mistake yet so have faith my fellow magic fans!!! Henny must know something we don't about fournier. Remember, we all thought Tobias was average and he's turned out to be a productive player

Sent from my XT1033 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[JameerNelsonFan]

if Orlando makes a big deal tonight that required the cap space they just got now, that definitely plays into it. it is the reason the 1st trade is done.

They got poor value for him or you guys overrated him. Fact is, if he were worth more, they would have gotten more.

You can't use future trades to evaluate this trade. This trade was poor for the Magic, plain and simple. Live with it. Don't make excuses to cool the burn.

Fournier hasn't even played a game for the magic and it's a terrible trade? Us magic fans thought the same about the redick trade so hold your horses on your verdict mate

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[spree8]

Thank god. I was so tired of seeing the Afflalo for lotto pick trades....sooo ridiculous.

[HornetJail]

Hennigan must like Fournier A LOT to pass on both a first round pick and Henderson for Afflalo

[jjohns828]

Hennigan must like Fournier A LOT to pass on both a first round pick and Henderson for Afflalo

I'd much rather have Fournier and the capspace then Henderson and the 24th and I'm not even a fan of this trade.

[Smitty731]

Hennigan must like Fournier A LOT to pass on both a first round pick and Henderson for Afflalo

I'd much rather have Fournier and the capspace then Henderson and the 24th and I'm not even a fan of this trade.

Cap space is only useful if you intend to use it somehow. No matter how you flip it, the 24th pick would have been a better asset than Fournier and 56 on their own. The difference of 1.5 million between Henderson and Afflalo is barely negligible for Orlando. Orlando is sitting on so much space as it is, that part makes no sense.

I have to believe this is part of something bigger that Hennigan has planned. Or the offer of Henderson and 24 was never real to begin with. It doesn't make a lot of sense otherwise.

[djthesonicsfan]

For the record you overvalued Afflalo a lot too.

Really? Orlando got a prospect, a late 2nd, salary cap relief and maybe a TPE. I think I pretty much nailed it.

You said a 1st or a "good" prospect or a 1st and a modest prospect and they may be required to take back an expiring.

How is that a C-D level prospect and an extremely late 2nd?

Wow... talk about trying to pick the fly $h!t out of the pepper.