Value of specific draft picks if season is canceled

[dockingsched]

Bucher reported earlier that if the season is canceled, the likely scenario for the draft is that the last 3 seasons will be used to determine the order. the worst 14 teams would be allocated odds and a lottery for the top 3 picks would be done as usual (Bucher said that the odds wouldn't be the same as the regular lottery).

The most hotly discussed pick on these boards, the minny pick owed to the Clippers, would have its value sky rocket, as it would be a guaranteed top 5 pick and would have the best odds, or possibly 2nd to SAC, of being the 1st overall.

some of the picks that would appear to increase in value would be SAC, MIN (owed to LAC), WAS, and NJ among others.

some that would dip are CLE, UTAH.

the clippers would seem to be the team that benefits the post, landing a guaranteed top 5 pick and their own top 10 pick.

how would the pick of your favorite team dip or rise in value?

the lakers would be the same, possibly dip in value a bit if i had to choose one. 27-30 range when it might be 25-26 this upcoming season, so insignificant.


Potential Draft Order (work in progress)

Using Wins - Least to Most:

LA Clippers 26.67
Milwaukee Bucks 38.67
Cleveland Cavaliers 48.67
LA Lakers 59.67

Using Position in the Standings - Worst to Best:

LA Clippers 24.67
Milwaukee Bucks 18.67
Cleveland Cavaliers 10.33
LA Lakers 3.00

[dockingsched]

and if anyone from each fan base can quickly do some math, we can get an idea of where picks might be:

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/year ... asontype/2

Lakers

Wins: 57, 57, 65: Average 59.67 wins

League standing: 4th, 3rd, 2nd: Average 3rd place


Clippers

wins: 19, 29, 32: Average 26.67 wins

League Standing: 23rd, T-22nd, T-29th: Average 24.67th place

[Amish Mafioso]

As a Jazz fan, this would be a nightmare. As much as I'd like to believe we have a shot at being a decent team this year, it's more likely we'd end up with good pick in a good draft. I think I'd have to believe they could find a way that would be more fair. If not, I'd have to set the building on fire.

[trwi7]

Bucks

Wins: 35, 46, 34: Average 38.67 wins

League Standing: 21st, 14th, T-21st: Average 18.67

[dockingsched]

thanks! added the bucks to the OP

[dockingsched]

Cleveland

Wins: 19, 61, 66: Average 48.67

Standing: 1st, 1st, 29th: Average 10.33th place

[vincecarter4pres]

Nets

Wins: 34, 12, 24 Average: 23.33

League Standings: 20th, 30th, 26th Average: 25.33th place

[Amish Mafioso]

Utah

Wins: 39, 53, 48: Average: 46.6

League standing: 18, 8, 11: Average: 12.3th place

[Pacersike]

Indiana Pacers

Wins: 36, 32, 37 Average: 35.0 wins

Standings: 18, 21, 19 Average: 19.3th place

[Foye]

As a Jazz fan, this would be a nightmare. As much as I'd like to believe we have a shot at being a decent team this year, it's more likely we'd end up with good pick in a good draft. I think I'd have to believe they could find a way that would be more fair. If not, I'd have to set the building on fire.

Your pick would go to the Wolves then.
Not much of a compensation for giving our own pick to the Clippers, though.
I hope to god it doesn't happen and we get a season soon so that we can at least try to make that pick lower.

[MarJJMar]

I already posted this
weighting 2011 x3, 2010 x2, 2009 x1

Code: Select all

Team         Draft Position Avg   Win Avg         Weighted Win Score
minnesota      3,0000000000      18,6666666667      105
New Jersey   6,0000000000      23,3333333333      130
Sacramento   3,0000000000      22,0000000000      139
Washington      3,3333333333      22,6666666667      140
Clippers      6,3333333333      26,6666666667      173
Toronto      8,0000000000      31,6666666667      179
Detroit      9,6666666667      32,0000000000      183
Golden State   7,6666666667      30,3333333333      189
Indiana      12,6666666667      35,0000000000      211
New York      11,3333333333      34,3333333333      216
Philly         13,0000000000      36,3333333333      218
Charlotte      12,3333333333      37,6666666667      225
Milwaukee      12,3333333333      38,3333333333      231
Memphis      12,6666666667      36,6666666667      242
cleveland      20,6666666667      48,6666666667      245
New Orleans   17,0000000000      44,0000000000      261
Houston      17,0000000000      46,0000000000      266
Utah         18,3333333333      46,6666666667      271
Phoenix      17,6666666667      46,6666666667      274
Atlanta      20,6666666667      48,0000000000      285
OKC         16,0000000000      42,6666666667      288
Portland      22,3333333333      50,6666666667      298
chicago      20,3333333333      48,0000000000      309
Denver      24,0000000000      52,3333333333      310
Miami         21,3333333333      49,3333333333      311
Boston      24,0000000000      56,0000000000      330
Dallas         25,3333333333      54,0000000000      331
Orlando      26,3333333333      56,6666666667      333
San Antonio      25,0000000000      55,0000000000      337
Lakers         27,6666666667      59,6666666667      350


[Narf]

Remember though, with the age limit being 20 instead of 19, half of the lotto players won't even be in the draft next year. And if there is no season, and it's still locked out....well who's going to leave college to sit around and do nothing?

[shrink]

If there is no season, this is how the owed picks shake out:

WILL BE CONFERRED

1. MIN to LAC (Cassell/Jaric trade, 8/12/05) 2011: 2012: Unprotected

17. HOU to NJN (T. Williams/Vujacic trade, 12/15/10) 2012: Top 14 protected 2013: Top 14 protected 2014: Top 14 protected 2015: Top 14 protected 2016: Top 14 protected 2017: 2nd rd pick, cash

18. UTA to MIN (Jefferson trade, 7/13/10) 2012: Top 14 protected 2013: Top 12 protected If not conveyed by 2014 and if UTA 2014 1st rd pick is not within top 9 picks, MIN will have the option to swap 2014 1st rd pick with UTA. If MIN does not receive a first round pick by the 2013 draft and also does not swap 2014 first round picks with UTA, then MIN will receive UTA’s own 2014 second round pick


MAY BE CONFERRED

8. GSW to UTA (D. Williams trade, 2/23/11) via NJN (M. Williams trade, 7/22/08) 2011: Top 7 protected 2012: Top 11 protected 2013: Top 10 protected Else 2013 2nd rd pick and 2015 2nd rd pick

Only 10% chance GSW gets a top 3 spot after lottery, so there's 90% chance GSW gives up their pick (72.4% 8th pick, 16.8% 9th pick)

10. NYK to HOU (McGrady trade, 2/18/10) 2012: Top 5 protected 2013: Top 5 protected 2014: Top 5 protected 2015: Top 5 protected Else 2015 and 2016 2nd rd picks

Only a 4% chance that NYK gets a top 3 lottery spot, so there's a 96% chance NYK gives up their pick (87% 10th pick, 9% 11th pick)


WON'T BE CONFERRED:

12. CHA to CHI (T. Thomas/Murray trade, 2/18/10) 2012: Top 14 protected 2013: Top 12 protected 2014: Top 10 protected 2015: Top 8 protected 2016: Unprotected

25 vs 15. MIA to CLE (James trade, 7/10/10) CLE has right to swap 2012 1st rd picks w/ MIA

5. LAC to BOS (Perkins trade) via OKC (Bledsoe trade, 6/24/10) Less favorable of 2012 LAC and MIN picks 2012 Top 10 protected 2012: Top 10 protected 2013: Top 10 protected 2014: Top 10 protected 2015: Top 10 protected 2016: Unprotected

Can a Clipper fan confirm that this is correct, and they will get both picks? Or if LAC passes MIN in the lottery, does LAC have to give the MIN pick to BOS?

[HartfordWhalers]

I'm pretty sure that GS pick is top 7/7/6 not the 7/11/10 listed above, but really great list.

Very interesting to see both the Houston and Utah picks getting conveyed, as with a season both may not and could be on the road to turning into 2nd rounders.

[dockingsched]

good list marjjmar!

5. LAC to BOS (Perkins trade) via OKC (Bledsoe trade, 6/24/10) Less favorable of 2012 LAC and MIN picks 2012 Top 10 protected 2012: Top 10 protected 2013: Top 10 protected 2014: Top 10 protected 2015: Top 10 protected 2016: Unprotected

Can a Clipper fan confirm that this is correct, and they will get both picks? Or if LAC passes MIN in the lottery, does LAC have to give the MIN pick to BOS?

the full details:

2012 first round draft pick to Boston
The Los Angeles Clippers' own 2012 first round draft pick to Boston via Oklahoma City (top 10 protected in the 2012 draft, top 10 protected in 2013, top 10 protected in 2014, top 10 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 Draft). In addition, if the Los Angeles Clippers are required to send their 2012 first round pick pursuant to the above and are also entitled to receive Minnesota's own 2012 first round draft, then Boston via Oklahoma City shall receive the lesser of the Los Angeles Clippers' own 2012 first round pick and Minnesota's own 2012 first round pick. [L.A. Clippers -Oklahoma City, 6/24/2010 and then Boston - Oklahoma City, 2/24/2011]

clips would get both picks since both are guaranteed top 10 picks.

[MarJJMar]

It is pretty obvious that the losers of this unfair aggregate are:

Phoenix, Denver, Cleveland and Utah.

These teams lost Amare, Melo, Lebron and Deron just before or during the last season. Phoenix best 2 players are 38 years old and Phoenix only had the 2nd worst lottery pick to improve so far. At least Cleveland got lucky and had two top 5 picks, Utah had 2 lottery picks and Denver and Utah got a lot of return for Deron and Melo while Phoenix and Cleveland got next to nothing for Lebron and Amare.

and the winners are:

Clippers, New York, New Jersey and other lottery teams that already got multiple top 5 picks and should be much improved next year and outside the top 5.

[MarJJMar]

It would be more fair if there was something like compensatory picks like in the NFL for Cleveland, Toronto and Phoenix that lost a star free agent for nothing.

Although well Toronto sucked hard with or without Bosh anyway.

[HartfordWhalers]

It would be more fair if there was something like compensatory picks like in the NFL for Cleveland, Toronto and Phoenix that lost a star free agent for nothing.

Although well Toronto sucked hard with or without Bosh anyway.

Eh. Denver and Utah got something for their stars because they traded them before they became unrestricted free agents. Any team that doesn't do anything to get any value for a player until they no longer have any rights whatsoever for that player can't really expect to get compensated for not seeking compensation.

Orlando will be able to get something (significant) from Howard mid season. Or they can wait and hope he resigns. But if they turn down trade offers, and then watch Howard leave (as many expect he will), why the heck should anyone give Orlando anything?

[MarJJMar]

And Phoenix could not get anything for Amare at the time because of several circumstances in the NBA at that time.

That is what compensatory picks are for. To compensate teams for losing free agents against their wish without getting any compensation from a trade.

Plus yes they should at least get compensated in a way that this is a factor in weighted 3 year aggregate ranking because losing your star for nothing certainly makes you a worse team in the future that what you were over the last 3 years with Lebron, Amare or Bosh.

If you checked my weighted rankings right now under such a weighting Phoenix would only get about the #19 pick and Cleveland #15 without checking right now. Certainly nobody will suggest that Phoenix would finish as the 11th best team next season or Cleveland as the 16th best.

Say you substracted a fixed number of games in cases where teams lost an allstar player in free agency or to career ending injury (Lebron, Amare and Roy might apply for such). You would substract X games from Phoenix, Cleveland and Portlands wins in the years that factor in when these players were still on the team.

Cleveland would not get counted for 66 and 62 wins or whatever they had in the 2 years with Lebron. Instead you would maybe account them for 33 and 31 wins or something.

[HartfordWhalers]

And Phoenix could not get anything for Amare at the time because of several circumstances in the NBA at that time.

That is what compensatory picks are for. To compensate teams for losing free agents against their wish without getting any compensation from a trade.

Plus yes they should at least get compensated in a way that this is a factor in weighted 3 year aggregate ranking because losing your star for nothing certainly makes you a worse team in the future that what you were over the last 3 years with Lebron, Amare or Bosh.

If you checked my weighted rankings right now under such a weighting Phoenix would only get about the #19 pick and Cleveland #15 without checking right now. Certainly nobody will suggest that Phoenix would finish as the 11th best team next season or Cleveland as the 16th best.

Massive BS. There isn't a single reason Phx couldn't trade Amare and get something for him. They chose not to, as they will most likely with Nash. Phx could have just offered Amare the full max and he would have resigned there.
The player that would have signed with us if we had paid him, and would have gotten something in a trade if we traded him, but instead we did neither and got nothing. Please sir, can I get a hand out?

The 3 year weighting isn't fair (at all), but that is another whole issue.