turk3d wrote:Wizenheimer wrote:turk3d wrote:Batum Shooting 43.1% fg, 35.5 3pt%, 5.4 rpg (per), 2.4 topg (per) so far this season just doesn't excite me too much.
Barnes with 42.8% fg, 31.8%, 6.2 rpg (per), 1.7 topg )per) as a 20 year old rookie excites me a lot more. Not worth the extra money we'd be throwing @ Batum. I want to see where Barnes goes this being just his first year.
that's a bit of cherry-picking
this is Batum's worst shooting year. He's been playing with a bad back and the offense has changed from his first 4 seasons. Batum's career marks in both FG and 3pt shooting are significantly better then this season. I'm much more persuaded by his first 200 games then his last 20
and LOL at pointing out turnovers without mentioning assists. Batum is at 3.4 assists compared to Barnes at 1.6. Significantly changes the perspective on turnovers. You also 'failed' to mention FT shooting. Not a surprise considering Batum is shooting .833 compared to Barnes at .667
impact on their teams? well in the net on-court/off-court differential, Batum has a +4.8 mark while Barnes is a -5.0.
and some other numbers that might add more perspective then the raw numbers you used:
PER: Barnes 10.7....Batum 16.9
Player/Opponent Net PER: Barnes -3.4....Batum +4.1 (at SF)
Player/Opponent Net PER: Barnes +4.5....Batum +16.7 (at SG)
TrueShooting%: Barnes .505....Batum .557
effectiveFG%: Barnes .468....Batum .511
WinShares/48: Barnes .070....Batum .108
it's just fine if you like Barnes more, all things considered, then Batum. You don't need to justify that preference by using a few cherry-picked raw stats. Batum will win any statistical comparison by a wide margin
Cherry picking: not so much. Assists (if you want to talk about career avgs for Batum like you do on the rest) it's just 1.4 and this year they're up because you don't really have any strong passing guards so I imagine that's the reason Batums doing more. But if you want to compare Batum's apg to Barnes you should use per36 to bet a better idea which is just 3.2-2.2. S
So basically Batum's just averaging 1 more apg than Barnes in his rookie year as compared to Batum's 5th (Batum avged just 0.9 apg his first year or 1.8 per36). Look at their first years if you want to get a fair comparison.
Pretty close and definitely not enough of a difference to make this deal at the add on his cost for the next 4 years (especially his last two). We have some good passers on this team so we really don't need Barnes to excel in that area (Curry, Jarret Jack, David Lee, Klay Thompson).
I'll repeat: it's just fine if you like Barnes more. And I'll withdraw the cherry-picking remark as I don't mean to offend you
by the way...I did not use any career averages. Don't know where you're getting that I did
second, whether we're talking per game or per36, pointing out turnover numbers without adding the factor of assist numbers is a skewed comparison. For that matter, not only should any discussion on turnovers include the assist numbers, it should also include usage rate. Players with higher usage rates will almost always have higher turnover rates
and as I mentioned, why point out FG and 3pt percentages without adding FT%? Is it just coincidence that is the one raw shooting stat where Batum had a large advantage?
as far as Batum being a young veteran and Barnes a rookie, that's true. But that also affects their value. Some teams are going to place higher value on current production. Other may elevate the value of 'potential'. If you want to attach the value of potential to Barnes, I have no problem with that. There's no guarantee though, that the potential will be realized
as a matter of fact, for a majority of players it seems that when it comes to those advanced metrics (like the ones I used in my earlier post) there isn't a giant difference between their rookie numbers and where their career numbers are after a few seasons. Certainly, there is usually across the board improvement, but it's not nearly as large as what people would expect. 10-20% better is pretty common