basketballwacko2 wrote:jowglenn wrote:Yeah my tank-job concept was something like West, G Hill, & Stuckey to Houston for Jones, Papanikolau, Terry, Canaan, TPE to absorb Hill, and probably a pick (HOU fans all tried to bargain on this, I was like, give us the pick yo). Houston goes all-in with a very strong lineup of Hill/Harden/Ariza/West/Howard and maintains a decent bench with Beverly, Stuckey, Motiejunas (and whatever else they have on their bench right now, god only knows).
Pacers keep Hibbert but otherwise blow the season. Look to play up Copeland & Scola's values and trade them if possible at the deadline. Roll out a lineup of, like, CJ Watson, CJ Miles, Solomon Hill, Terrence Jones, Roy Hibbert. Terry, Sloan, Canaan, Rudez, Papnikolau, Mahinmi, Lavoy, etc as bench pieces. Pretty bad, right?
BUT they'd get a top 10 pick in the draft (top 5?) and come back the following year with that pick, Miles, George, Jones, Hibbert, Papanikolau, S.Hill, Rudez, Mahinmi, Canaan as the only guys on the books. It's an obvious step back, but if they pick right in the draft and can sign ONE key free agent, then it could be a workable refresh.
You've suggested this before, I can see where Houston would want a David West and maybe Hill, but I don't see them giving up Jones or this "Top 10" pick you talk about. Are you referring to the Pelicans pick? Anyhow why include Stuckey who is on a league minny contract? You have the Pacers acquiring 4 for 3 which means someone gets cut right away. I assume that would be Terry getting bought out. If God forbid this came off.
First your assumptions are flawed, Houston won't give the value part of the deal Jones and the Pick, an the filler is pretty worthless except Papa's UG contract for a trade next summer. Finally the deal can't even happen until Terry's trade restriction drops off Nov 16th which is a month from now, 2 weeks into the season.
If you are talking about the Pelicans pick why do you think they will be in the top 10? I don't think they'll be that bad maybe won't make the playoffs but not a top 10 pick
Sorry, my writing was unclear. Let me clarify.
The pick: the "top 10 (top 5) pick" I'm referring to is the Pacers' own pick. I think that if they stick with what they have, they can make the playoffs. Why not? This is a decent veteran team that will still present a solid defense night in and night out. It's still the East. By trading away West & Hill they'd plummet and be a bottom 5-10 team. So I'm saying their own pick would go like 5-10 spots higher. If they don't do a full rebuild, I honestly think they'll compete hard enough to win half their games, and get like the 15th pick in the draft. I don't like that, because I'd rather have Jones & the 6th pick in the draft (and the 23rd from HOU) than one last year of David West, two more years of George Hill, and the 15th pick in the draft. So I'm simply saying that by doing this deal, the Pacers improve their own pick by tanking into the 3-7 range. The pick that comes from the Rockets would be the Rockets' own 2015 pick, which I presume would be in the 20s somewhere. I'm not even asking for the New Orleans' pick. The protections are a bit weird, might not see it til 2019 or something. No way the Pelicans are at any point going to be a bottom 3 team with Anthony Davis and a middling supporting cast.
As for the trade coming off after two weeks - it would actually have to be later, as it includes Stuckey, who can't be traded until December 14th. But so what? A trade done a month into the season is similar to a trade done before, just without as much time to gel. With good veterans like West and Hill and Stuckey, I don't think it'll be too hard to integrate these guys starting in December. They will fit right in. This will save the Rockets' season. A lot of people are saying "hey... these Rockets might not be good enough." People are picking them to miss the playoffs. Who cares if you have to wait a month into the season, this is a game changer. This is the making of your team for the next two years. This is the Morey move that puts the Rockets right in the thick of things.
We need to cut someone? Well, ok, we'd cut someone. Not a huge deal, guys get cut due to deals all the time. Main point is Pacers would be moving two large salaries in one go, and ending up with a much slimmer payroll. They still have Hibbert & George combining for what, 32 million, but then everyone else (Miles, Jones, Rudez, the 2015 rookies) are all on extremely reasonable deals. You get one key free agent (make the play at Rondo, or Dragic, or Reggie Jackson, or Jeremy Lin, or whoever) and suddenly you're rolling out a decent FA point guard, the 6th pick in the draft, PG, Jones, & Hibbert, with a nice collection of mid-price young bench players. Why not?
With regards to Stuckey - this is the piece that makes it even more palatable for the Rockets. It's exactly because he's a minimum contract veteran that he adds some value from the Pacers' side. He'd get good backup minutes in Houston. Doesn't anyone else think Stuckey on the league minimum is a steal? But with the Pacers, it's not like he'd be sticking around anyway. This makes it easier for the Rockets to give up what they give up, because all 3 pieces coming back are major rotation pieces. Only one piece they send to the Pacers is really a legitimate rotation piece this year, and that's Terrence Jones.
I really believe that this trade, as constructed, followed by maybe one other decent move on the bench, puts the Rockets in genuine contention for the next two years. Hill/Harden/Ariza/West/Howard is a tough-as-nails lineup. Beverly, Stuckey, Moteijunas is a good bench. Harden will play small-ball minutes at SF, his practice in the FIBA will be helpful. With the cap going up, in 2016 they can still go after a big free agent after West expires.
Otherwise, you're sitting with Harden, Howard, Ariza... Jones... Beverley... Motiejunas. That's a 6-man lineup, and after that things get iffy. You really plan to have Canaan Daniels, and Papanikolau playing 18 mpg each on a contender? Really? This deal gives you an 8 man lineup of solid vets who can all play starters minutes when necessary ( I have big faith in Donatas, too ).
This makes Ariza your 4th best guy instead of your 3rd best guy, because West is now your 3rd best guy. This makes Beverley your 6th best guy instead of your 4th/5th best guy because Hill brings a perfect complement to Harden. It's multiple upgrades across the team. Yes, they still need a final frontcourt piece, but you can say the same about the team right now, can't you?
Houston has a window here, and I really think if they don't make a move, this season is a bust. They won't be a top 4 seed, they'll get bounced in the 1st round, and suddenly the whole Harden/Howard thing comes down to whether Morey can maneuver this summer perfectly correctly.
Do this deal, however, and I think this is a top 4 seed - I'd put them above Golden State, above Portland, above Dallas. I think this team can knock off the Clippers in the 2nd round. I think this team has real contender status. At least a chance.
When you have a combo like Harden & Howard, you gotta put win-now solid veteran players around them who can be good complements. Ariza is one. West would be a huge one. Hill is an absolute perfect 5th guy for this team.
Don't waste it trying to make the Terrence Jones thing work. Let the Pacers do that next year and the following.
