PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Golden State Warriors

[Texas Chuck]

PMOTT3's Review

Key Losses:

David Lee

Losses:

Alvin Gentry
Justin Holiday

Draft:

Kevon Looney

Looney was projected to go 15-25 in most mocks so after dropping on draft night i liked the decision to take him. i feel like he would have gone higher had he not been injured. seems like a tweener SF/PF for now but after he bulks up i suspect they will try to develop him into a more versatile PF.

Trades:

David Lee for Gerald Wallace

I hated the Lee trade. Lee was at least a useful expiring who could be your first big off the bench or be your starting PF. I expect him to put up bigger numbers in BOS. Wallace is literally just a dead weight expiring who provides nothing. and the difference in their salary is only 4-5 mil. I get that they save a lot of money from luxury payments by doing this but it was just for one year. The loss of Lee doesn't makeup for the one year of savings in luxury payments imo.

Free Agency:

Draymond Green
Leandro Barbosa
Picking up Speights super cheap TO

Basically just bringing the band back together with the exception of Lee. Nothing wrong with that either as that is what just won them a title. They got Green for a little under the max and for the full 5 years; solid deal. They didnt overpay on bringing Barbosa back either which was good. Picked up Speights 3 mil team option which was a steal.

Current Depth Chart (rough sketch):

PG: Curry/Livingston
SG: Thompson/Barbosa/Rush
SF: Barnes/Iggy/Wallace
PF: Green/Speights/Looney
C: Bogut/Ezili/McAdoo

Needs:

I dont really see Rush, Wallace, Looney, or McAdoo being in Golden States rotation unless its for garbage minutes or something. So excluding them, I think they need one more veteran big for insurance with an aging Bogut and not to mention his injury history. Would also like to see them add another shooter. I dont like Barbosa backing up klay and feel he should be more of a 3rd string PG. John Jenkins would have been a nice pick up I feel like. RJ Hunter would have been even better and almost fell right into their laps on draft night. Other than a back up SG and another big I dont really see much to work on.

Added Thoughts:

They didn't have an exciting off-season but thats okay. Sometimes the less exciting off-seasons end up being the most important ones. They re-signed Green just below the max, they brought back Barbosa on a good deal, picked up Speights option, and drafted a nice prospect imo in Looney. Other than the David Lee deal and losing Gentry; It was a fairly good off-season for them.

Win/Loss Prediction: 62-20

Off-Season Grade: B-


Chuck Texas' Review:

Losses:

Alvin Gentry imo is bigger than any of the player losses. One of, if not the very, best assistant coaches in the entire Association. He will be missed.

David Lee
Justin Holiday

Minor losses really. David Lee is a nice insurance policy who gave them a little something in the Finals, but it just wasn't feasible financially to keep him. Holiday was never going to crack this wing rotation on a team playing for championships

Draft:

Kevin Looney --- I like this pick. Warriors don't need anyone to come in and play so take a small risk on a guy with some real upside. Percentages tell us this pick won't pan out, but if he hits its a nice very cheap depth piece moving forward or a trade asset.

Trades:

Lee for Crash

I like it and I don't. I like it because it cost no assets and the savings between salary and tax are considerably more than Lee is worth on the court. And saving that money paid for Speights and Barbosa to return. I don't like it because Crash is worthless and eats a roster spot and its still an expensive dead weight.

Free Agency:

Kept their own guys: Draymond, Barbosa, picking up Speights options.

I'm a little surprised that Barbosa is back at that number. I think he could have been replaced by a min contract guy, but I also understand the value in just bringing back the best team in the world. Speights is a good value depth guy. With Lee gone his offense is nice to have and with Bogut having to be limited in terms of minutes it keeps some pressure off of Ezeli. And obviously keeping Green was paramount.

Current Depth Chart:

Andrew Bogut/Festus Ezeli
Draymond Green/Mo Speights/Kevin Looney/James McAdoo
Harrison Barnes/Andre Iguadola/Crash Wallace
Klay Thompson/Leandro Barbosa/Brandon Rush
Steph Curry/Shaun Livingston

Needs:

Not much. One more guard for depth and maybe a veteran backup 4(I think Speights is more of a 5). Maybe Boozer and Dre Miller? Would be nice to salary dump Crash at the deadline when most of his contract is paid to save the tax hit. But this is still the clear cut best team in the league for me---apologies to Cleveland who if healthy should be formidable as well.

Additional Thoughts:

Can they replace what Gentry brought them? How do they handle being favorites? They have to start thinking about how much they love Barnes with his contract coming due. And do they think Ezeli can be a long-term answer at center?

Win/Loss Prediction: 61-21

I don't know that they go full out in the RS to max out wins, and as champs they will teams geared up to play them. But they are so good I think they easily win 60+ again this year and are one of the favorites to win the title. Best team in the West still imo.

Off-Season Grade: B+

If they could have saved more money in the Lee dump and if they had brought in another couple veterans for needed depth I'd give them a solid A. And they might still add a veteran or two later in FA. Nothing flashy, but I really liked the draft pick and the decision to keep Barbosa/Speights when they could have easily justified replacing them with vet min guys considering the tax bill. That willingness to spend to keep the title team together earns them this grade.

[Laimbeer]

C

They basically stand pat, in fact they regress a small bit on the floor with the loss of Lee. Financially, they accomplished something. Basketball-wise, not so much. Other top contenders in the West improved and the Warriors didn't.

[bondom34]

I'm with Chuck, B-. Stood pat except Lee for Crash which was a loss in production but saved cash.

[Hawk Eye]

Chuck you've got to give the people what they want...polls.

[Texas Chuck]

Chuck you've got to give the people what they want...polls.

I hate polls........

[Hawk Eye]

Chuck you've got to give the people what they want...polls.

I hate polls........

Im fine with no polls but you better hope Hartford Whalers doesn't find out. Polls are his crack substitute.

[Hawk Eye]

C

They basically stand pat, in fact they regress a small bit on the floor with the loss of Lee. Financially, they accomplished something. Basketball-wise, not so much. Other top contenders in the West improved and the Warriors didn't.

I agree with you for most of this with the exception of the grade. I didn't like the Lee trade at all or the loss of Gentry. Feel like Kerr learned a lot from Gentry though last season so i don't see it having some huge effect. But the other small things brought me up to a B-. Really liked their decision to draft Looney, the green deal was good, I thought the Barbosa deal was okay as well, and they did save a lot of money from letting Lee go. C+ or B- feels right to me.

[Laimbeer]

Chuck you've got to give the people what they want...polls.

I hate polls........

Im fine with no polls but you better hope Hartford Whalers doesn't find out. Polls are his crack substitute.

I'm with HW, but maybe not that far into them....

[brackdan70]

If it aint broke don't fix it. they kept key guys and didn't mess around with any trades besides salary dump of Lee. Seems like no brainers but I give them an A. Looney a good pick where the got him.

[Hawk Eye]

bumping for more input

[blind prophet]

C

They basically stand pat, in fact they regress a small bit on the floor with the loss of Lee. Financially, they accomplished something. Basketball-wise, not so much. Other top contenders in the West improved and the Warriors didn't.

With you again Laimbeer. C

[damecurry]

They haven't done so yet, but aren't we assuming GSW will stretch wallace? I am, 3m isn't that big a concern on future cap and it would save an additional like 20m in taxes I believe. If they traded Lee to save literally like 30m that can be spent on future players of actual value than that was a steal of a trade for GSW actually. Completely disagree with pmott's analysis of the trade, lee meant nothing to them at this point so even if they only save 5m and the 10m+ of lux tax with it, that's totally worth it.

[damecurry]

bumping for more input

btw, you should play in the new gmat. We need like 4 more ppl.

[Hawk Eye]

bumping for more input

btw, you should play in the new gmat. We need like 4 more ppl.

i wont have the time. Im taking a vacation next week and the week after i start back school again.

[statsman]

I think the luxury tax narrative for the Warriors has changed a great deal over the last several months. Most of last season there was talk of a $50M luxury tax bill, which included giving a 25% max contract to Green and keeping Lee.

Since that time, they have signed Green to what amounts to a "21.7% max" contract, traded Lee (at his request) for $5.4M less salary, and the salary cap has spiked from original estimates of $66.5M and $67.1M to $70M. The combination of those factors has dropped the Warriors current luxury tax bill to a bit under $20M, which assumes McAdoo is retained, Wallace is kept, and Bogut doesn't reach his incentive clause this season.

It's hard to grade their offseason when they just won an NBA title and most of the core is returning. They had little cap flexibility coming into the offseason and that is still the case. They got what looks to be good value (health permitting) with Looney at the #30 pick. They were able to re-sign Green without much drama, something the Cavs are dealing with trying to re-sign Thompson.

I think the B- grade sounds about right.

[azwfan]

I think the luxury tax narrative for the Warriors has changed a great deal over the last several months. Most of last season there was talk of a $50M luxury tax bill, which included giving a 25% max contract to Green and keeping Lee.

Since that time, they have signed Green to what amounts to a "21.7% max" contract, traded Lee (at his request) for $5.4M less salary, and the salary cap has spiked from an original estimates of $66.5M and $67.1M to $70M. The combination of those factors has dropped the Warriors current luxury tax bill to a bit under $20M, which assumes McAdoo is retained, Wallace is kept, and Bogut doesn't reach his incentive clause this season.

It's hard to grade their offseason when they just won an NBA title and most of the core is returning. They had little cap flexibility coming into the offseason and that is still the case. They got what looks to be good value (health permitting) with Looney at the #30 pick. They were able to re-sign Green without much drama, something the Cavs are dealing with trying to re-sign Thompson.

I think the B- grade sounds about right.

Has the Wallace / Lee trade officially gone through yet? My understanding is once it does we also picked up a TPE that we can use at the beginning of next years offseason (if we're over the new cap) or at next season trade deadline if we are desperate for help.

At any rate, i think they deserve an A as it stands now. When you meet all your goals its tough to give a lower grade IMO. From where we ended the season, to what our off season goals were (keep the core team together, send Lee to a better playing situation for him, save some money, draft a long term project, retain future assets) I don't see how they deserve anything less than an A.

Edit: I take that back. I suppose we could have not picked up the option on Speights and then signed David West to vets minimum. That would've been an A. I'll give them a B+.

[Warriorfan]

The analysis by both is accurate.

I think overall the offense will improve due to player maturation and better implementation of the Kerr offense which was brand new.


Overall a long playoff run ending in a championship , player commercialization and aging of Bogut and Iggy the defense will regress

[HartfordWhalers]

Drafted BPA.

Traded Lee at 15m for 10m of nothing. Lost Holiday for less money and then overpaid Barbosa. And if you think he mattered, let the man the myth the Kuzmic become unrestricted.

Mostly, they didn't mess up. When the time comes and they dump Wallace on Portland and stay fully under the cap I will give them a bump up further in hindsight, but no counting chickens before they hatch.

But on the margins, I'm not impressed. When pairing up with the monster Western Confernce lineups of SAS, Mem, LAC, losing a guy like Lee makes me feel less safe. Sure, Looney is there but he is a rookie, with some health questions, and taken 30th.

C- (before signing Green)

After including that, B+. 5 years locked in is nice for both.

[RSCD3_]

I'm with Chuck, B-. Stood pat except Lee for Crash which was a loss in production but saved cash.

Honestly for all the talk about the thunder being cheap, this move was far worse IMO. If he has a bounce back year the warriors might be kicking themselves at losing a instant offense bench presence.

[BadWolf]

Unspectacular, but they were really good last year and it's hard to improve on that. There's some room for internal growth. All in all I expect a bit worse record this year - they might not go all out, their health might not hold as good this year as last, opponents might get better health, some top teams improved.
B or B- for basically standing pat. not sure what they could realistically improved given their squad and salary restrictions.