PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Dallas Mavericks

[Texas Chuck]

PMOTT3's Review:

Quick Chuck Note: Not sure PMOTT3 had seen the Dalembert signing when he sent me his Dallas review, but I still think its very possible that Dalembert doesn't even make the final 15 so its not a big omission. He's saying the right things now, but if he is late or falls asleep in a meeting or does usual Dalembert stuff I don't think Rick and the Mavs put up with it. Of course I list him as the starter because I'm trying to be a foolish Mavs optimist somewhere.



Key Losses:

Monta Ellis
Tyson Chandler

Tyson will hurt more but losing Monta should still sting

Other Losses:

Rajon Rondo
Al-Farouq Aminu
Richard Jefferson
Amare Stoudemire
Bernard James ?
Gregg Smith ?

Aminu, Stoudemire, and Jefferson are the real losses. The others won't make a difference really.

Draft:

Justin Anderson

not my favorite choice but not a bad one either. I would have gone with Portis, Hunter, or Hollis-Jefferson before Anderson.

Trades:

.future top-55 protected 2nd for Zaza Pachulia

Basically got Zaza for free so great trade. Although i would prefer Zaza as my backup C at this point in his career; not my starting one.

Free Agency:

Wes Matthews
Deron Williams
J.J. Barea
John Jenkins
Charlie Villanueva

Most on here assumed Wes would do a 1+1 type of deal to re-up his value for the 2016 FA bonanza. I think it is incredibly stupid to give a player coming off one of if not the most serious injuries in basketball 70 million dollars. And ALL of it is guaranteed. No options. If Wes re-ruptures that achilies tendon this season then this deal could turn into one of the worst contracts in the league. Way too much risk for my liking.

I would actually consider starting Barea over D-Will. He's washed up at this point and with the exception of that one crazy hot shooting game in the ATL/BRK playoff series; he basically looked like a ghost out there. Didnt catch a lot of Brooklyn games last season but i assume he looked like a ghost for much of the whole season. At least he isn't on that albatross contract anymore.

I'm not that big on Barea but i was okay with the original deal until Cuban decided to give him more money. I'd consider him to be an overpay now.

I hate that Jenkins never got his shot in ATL with us but i hope he gets more burn in Dallas. I suspect he will probably start off in their D-league or getting garbage minutes though. Still, not a bad contract.

Surprised Villanueva didn't bolt like Jefferson did.

Wilson, Ashley, and Famous are just cheap end of the bench scrap.

Current Depth Chart (rough):
PG: D-Will/Barea/Felton
SG: Matthews/Harris/Jenkins
SF: Parsons/Anderson/Wilson
PF: Dirk/Villanueva/Ashley
C: Zaza/Powell/Famous

*Just look at Chuck's he will know better

Needs:

Well...if the goal is to compete and stay competitive for Dirk's twilight years then this team needs a lot of work. I think their PG rotation is one of the worst in the league. Their big depth is pretty bad as well. Their starting wings are coming off of major surgeries and the backups dont look dependable at all. This roster just needs a lot of work but unfortunately there just wasn't much to work with after DJ left them high and dry.

Additional Thoughts:

Cuban said before that the goal was to tank if they whiffed in FA and i think that they really need to stick to that plan. Their pick this year is top 7 protected so there is at least some cushion there. As the roster stands though, it just doesn't have the talent to compete in the tough West. None of this is Dallas's fault, this definitely wasn't the plan, there was basically no one good left after DJ screwed them, and it just isnt going to be a good year for Mavs fans. Sorry Chuck.

Win/Loss Prediction: 36-46

I don't see Carlisle committing to the tank and i think Dallas wins just enough games to give Boston a mid to late lotto pick.

Off-Season Grade: F

Barea contract was an overpay. Same for Matthews and extremely risky. I actually think the Kings dodged a bullet by Wes turning them down. The bench looks pretty bad as does their PG rotation. Hated bringing in D-Will. The best move they made was getting Zaza for free and when that's your best move your off-season deserves an F.


Chuck Texas' Review:

Key Losses:

Tyson Chandler
Monta Ellis
Any and all hope

Other losses:

Amare
Richard Jefferson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Bernard James
Greg Smith
Rajan Rondo

Once again Dallas trades for Tyson Chandler, watch him have a great year for the team, and chase after "bigger" fish instead of keeping him. Monta was better than expected here and while the end of his tenure turned sour, he always played hard and his ability to create shots is going to be missed. Aminu is really the only other significant loss. I really really wanted to keep this kid. Rest of those guys are whatever. And of course no way Rondo could return.

Draft:

Justin Anderson
Satnam Singh

I'm angry about the 2nd round pick because there were still potentially useful players to be had(I would have taken a chance on Robert Upshaw) and we were doing bits for Fegan and getting a sideshow act for Donnie's D-League team. I'm okay with Anderson, but I would have preferred Bobby Portis or RJ Hunter both of whom were still on the board. Still nice to make a pick and get a guy with potential 3&D skills.

Trades:

Zaza for the old top 55 protected 2nd

Really solid deal for Dallas. Zaza is worth his contract for a year, we had a desperate need and we didn't give up any assets. It was fine.

Free Agency

DeAndre Jordan
Wes Matthews 4 year Max
JJ Barea 4/$16M
Deron Williams 2/$10M 2nd year PO
Charlie V (1 year min)
Sam Dalembert 1 year min
John Jenkins 3 years/partial gtd
Jarrid Famous 3 years/partial gtd
Brandon Ashley 3 years/partial gtd
Maurice Ndour 3 years/partial gtd
Jamil Wilson 3 years/partial gtd

Awful Awful Awful

The place we have to start is with a player I love: Wes Matthews. He agreed to come as part of a package with Jordan and the Mavs agreed to give him every penny Jordan didn't get. Which turned into a max when Jordan changed his mind. I thought the original contract was a huge risk for Dallas but one I understood as Jordan and Matthews would give Dirk a chance to play playoff basketball until he retired and it gave Dallas a more attractive core to add another big piece next year. But now its just a huge risk on a guy who has an injury that tends to derail careers.

As you all know I love Barea and I'm thrilled to have him back. But it really feels like we bid against ourselves here because after his stint in Minny I can't see another team giving him more than the vet's exception for a year, maybe two. The Deron contract on its surface isn't terrible. As much as I don't want him here $5M per is fair. But in giving him a PO if he has a good year we have to either pay more next year or he's gone. We didn't create an asset. Dalembert is fine on a min deal. He has useful skills, but tends not to care. Charlie V I hope doesn't make the team--what's the point.

Now what I do like is giving gtd money to a bunch of younger guys to get them to come to our camp and fight it out for jobs and then the ones who don't make the 15 have incentive to play for our D-LEague team where we can continue to work with them. If even one of them eventually is a rotation guy then this was worth it. Not holding out much hope, but I like the approach.

Depth Chart (My assumptions on who actually makes the final 15 at this point)

Sam Dalembert/Zaza Pachulia/Jarrid Famous
Dirk Nowitzki/Dwight Powell/Maurice Ndour
Chandler Parsons/Justin Anderson/Jamil Wilson
Wes Matthews/JJ Barea/John Jenkins
Deron Williams/Devin Harris/Ray Felton

Needs:

Top end talent, top end talent, top end talent. Dallas has no all-star caliber players and no prospects who project to be all-star caliber and we owe Boston a 1st round pick. This roster has holes everywhere, but I'd rather just give the younger players a chance rather than bringing in another stop-gap veteran

Additional thoughts:

This sucks for Dirk. Wish Cuban had stuck to what he claimed in the wake of the Jordan signing--without DJ we would tank. We should be totally tanking. We shouldn't have traded for Zaza or signed Deron. We should be picking up assets in salary dumps like Portland and Philly. That Kings deal would have been great for us. Now we should be extremely cautious with Wes. I'm prepared to let him sit out the whole year if need be. I'd take it slow with Parsons too, but once he's healthy I'm making him the centerpiece of everything. Guy worked his tail off recruiting for the team this summer and I'm rewarding that. The offense will run through Parsons. I'm seeing if he can be a top offensive option here or give him the chance to prove it to other teams to get a big deal somewhere else.

Win-loss Prediction: 34-48

I think potentially this could be a sub 30 win team and I think best case scenario they could finish a game or two above .500. But too many questions marks health-wise on the wings and no depth behind the starters. Zaza and Dalembert would both be decent backups, but one of them has to start. I don't think Deron is going to ever return to close to his prior form and while Dirk will still be fine offensively his defense is becoming a bigger and bigger issue.

Off-Season Grade: F

They didn't get better for this year. They didn't add assets for the future. It's just another 2012 wasted off-season except with a lot more long-term risk. I know they got screwed by Jordan, but that was a pipe-dream plan to begin with and bottom line is the bottom line and this was an epic failure.

[Trader_Joe]

Key Loss: Deandre Jordan

I didn't like their off-season either, but I did like the class Cuban showed after losing Jordan and his handling of his other committed FAs. While that class may bite him in the butt, it shows he is an ethical businessman who cares about players.

Also, I have to say I do like the Deron signing (not just because it saved the Nets money in a buyout) but also, I think Deron has become underrated. No, he's not the player he once was, but he's still a heady floor general. The Nets were so much better with him on the floor as opposed to when he wasn't for years even with Watson, Livingston and Jack in tow. He's still an effective pick and roll player and should fair better in an environment where all eyes will not be on him. He's not much of a leader off the court and may have poisoned the environment in Brooklyn, but I cannot see that happening in Dallas.

If the team shows a modicum of health (as in their starting 5 pretty much all play 60+ games) I think this team could be a darkhorse in the West to make the PO, and once there Dirk may still have what it takes to scare others.

Yes the Jordan loss was devastating but this team has enough talent to remain a highly competitive team on a nightly basis IMO especially with health (as mentioned) and if Zaza can be a full time starter.

[Hawk Eye]

What? When did Dalembert sign? How did i miss that?

[Texas Chuck]

What? When did Dalembert sign? How did i miss that?

yeah how did you miss such an earth-shattering game-changer like that?

Word came out a couple days ago, but frankly none of the national guys probably bothered mentioning it(maybe Stein since he's a Dallas guy?).

[Hawk Eye]

What? When did Dalembert sign? How did i miss that?

yeah how did you miss such an earth-shattering game-changer like that?

Word came out a couple days ago, but frankly none of the national guys probably bothered mentioning it(maybe Stein since he's a Dallas guy?).

Yea its probably on par with the news of Hasheem Thabeet getting ejected in a D-league game

So you really think he's going to start over Zaza?

Btw, one thing i forgot to mention here is that i dont think it would would have been completely unreasonable for Tyson to take a discount with the Mavs had they approached him first and really wanted him back. He may not have taken a Dirk-like discount but maybe on the level of Danny Green-discount?

[Texas Chuck]

So you really think he's going to start over Zaza?

I think being a "starter" is really important to Sam and I think Zaza is a real pro who would be fine with coming off the bench as long as he was getting plenty of minutes. I think Zaza would likely play more minutes, but I think if Dalembert is on the team he will start. Because he fits better with Dirk defensively and on the glass and plus because I think that's the best way to get the most out of him.


I do think Tyson would have stayed. I'm not sure how interested he would have been in a discount, but its possible if we had gone to him immediately we might could have done a cheaper or at least shorter deal than he ultimately signed. I wouldn't have loved bringing him back on that deal he got in Phoenix. Would rather have done something like a 1+1 for $15M per or something that offered him a little protection but didn't take him past the Dirk window.

To me the interesting thing about the Tyson deal was this: if Jordan had decided on Dallas before Tyson decided on Phoenix, then I think the Clippers would have pushed hard for Tyson--Dallas would have cooperated I think in exchange for dumping Felton or some other asset thus making it almost impossible for Jordan to back out because I can't imagine the Clippers would have backed out of an agreement with Chandler. So then Dallas either ends up with Jordan(and maybe an unhappy one?) or the Clippers say screw it and sign Jordan anyway and we have even more chaos. It would have been fascinating.

[Texas Chuck]

Also, I'm completely embarrassed but I forget all about early signing Jeremy Evans who signed a 2 year fully gtd min contract. And I think he definitely makes the team in place of one of the 3 year partial guys. Utah guys here have sold me on this guy and because I can't find where Dallas has officially signed him yet(maybe Smitty knows different?) I had let him slip my mind.

[tiderulz]

hard for me to ding Dallas extremely hard. They swung for the fences and Jordan effectively screwed them, by nothing they did.

[brackdan70]

I think Zaza will surprise. He was a very positive player the last few years. I liked that move and drafting Anderson. Wes Mathews is risky, but that could turn into a real nice move as well. I give the a D for now, but inviting them to office hours to show they can be a C student. If they landed Jordan they get an easy A though right?, bummer for them. I don't think they make the playoffs...which is great for the Cs.

[Texas Chuck]

. I don't think they make the playoffs...which is great for the Cs.

I think its lining up about as perfectly for the Celtics as it possibly could. Very little chance of making the playoffs so the pick is in the lottery, but probably not bad enough to finish in the top 7 so unless Dallas gets lucky and moves up Boston is looking at a pick in that 8-12 range or so. Pretty nice.

And I'm okay with that. Either we have a top 7 pick which would be huge for us or we clear the pick obligation and move forward clean.

[bondom34]

I kind of agree w/ tiderulz, they really were so close to an A, and then just everything fell because DJ pulled a screw job. I went D, but I really love the Anderson pick, and they patched together as best they could.

[Knosh]

Win-loss Prediction: 34-48

I think potentially this could be a sub 30 win team and I think best case scenario they could finish a game or two above .500. But too many questions marks health-wise on the wings and no depth behind the starters. Zaza and Dalembert would both be decent backups, but one of them has to start. I don't think Deron is going to ever return to close to his prior form and while Dirk will still be fine offensively his defense is becoming a bigger and bigger issue.

I think you are being way to pessimistic...

Vegas Insider: Projected wins: 41.5
SI projections based on WS: Dallas Mavericks 41.2
Dallas is 8th in the West based on Pinnaclesports championship odds

[Domejandro]

You guys could have potentially had the best off-season and D.J. totally screwed you guys into one of the worst. Unfortunately, Dallas gets an "F" from me.

[Texas Chuck]

Win-loss Prediction: 34-48

I think potentially this could be a sub 30 win team and I think best case scenario they could finish a game or two above .500. But too many questions marks health-wise on the wings and no depth behind the starters. Zaza and Dalembert would both be decent backups, but one of them has to start. I don't think Deron is going to ever return to close to his prior form and while Dirk will still be fine offensively his defense is becoming a bigger and bigger issue.

I think you are being way to pessimistic...

Vegas Insider: Projected wins: 41.5
SI projections based on WS: Dallas Mavericks 41.2
Dallas is 8th in the West based on Pinnaclesports championship odds

yeah I probably am. But I have no idea what to expect from Matthews in terms of games played and how well he plays. Still don't know for sure what kind of surgery Parsons had and while it sounds like he will be back right away, I can't imagine we don't play it safe with him as well. I still think Dirk will be good offensively, but he's a sub 30 mpg guy now and we have mediocre at best center and PG options and very very iffy depth outside of PG.

Like I said best case I think we can edge above .500 and if Matthews plays 70+ games and looks like his usual self, Dirk plays 75+ games, Deron plays better than he has in years, Parsons proves ready for the number 1 option role, some of our kids are ready to play roles, then maybe we could squeeze into the 8th seed. But I think there is very little chance that all of that works out. We have no margin for error and frankly not a lot of talent.

[Hawk Eye]

I think Vegas Insider,SI, and Pinnacle Sports are being way too optimistic.

I just dont see the talent on that roster to get them into the playoffs. Id take Utah and New Orleans in the playoffs before i took the Mavs.

[bondom34]

Oh wow I didn't even see the win projections....yeah I'd be surprised if they were that bad. D Will is an upgrade, no matter what you believe, and Matthews should be around Monta's production. If Parsons gets back for the season and they have even decent health I expect mid 40s wins and around the 8 seed.

[Texas Chuck]

Oh wow I didn't even see the win projections....yeah I'd be surprised if they were that bad. D Will is an upgrade, no matter what you believe, and Matthews should be around Monta's production. If Parsons gets back for the season and they have even decent health I expect mid 40s wins and around the 8 seed.

I mean I'd love for that to be correct, but Monta gave us b2b years of 80 games and 19 ppg while being our main offensive creator. Being realistic with Matthews I think we have to expect him miss some games and probably have reduced minutes. Plus he just isn't that type of offensive player.

Don't get me wrong, I think a healthy Wes Matthews is a better piece than Monta Ellis, but replacing his production is really hard for me to see. I think Parsons and Deron are the guys who are going to have to replace Monta.

[Knosh]

Yeah I see the risks regarding Matthews and Parsons too and realize where Dirk is at in his career right now. I'm really trying not to be biased here which is why I linked to those neutral projections.

Dallas kept their second and third best guards from last season in Barea and Harris. Just last season Williams had an RPM of 1.91 while Ellis had an RPM of 1.92. In 13/14 Williams had 3.2 vs. 1.4 for Ellis. So even if Matthews is out for the season and Williams plays something like the last two seasons, there wasn't much lost there.
At SF Parsons missed 16 games last season and was marginalized post Rondo trade, so I think that makes up for some of the injury risk for him.
The backup situation at center was terrible for a stretch last season and even after STAT it wasn't great, so I don't see much of a drop off there either.

So basically the backup SF/PF got worse with losing Aminu, Dirk will be a year older and we go from Tyson to whatever. At the same time, anything Dallas gets from Matthews is a bonus, the pieces fit much better than they did post-Rondo and the locker room situation probably should be improved with Ellis and Rondo gone. That team is definitely worse, no doubt. But 14 wins worse? I don't see it.

[bondom34]

Oh wow I didn't even see the win projections....yeah I'd be surprised if they were that bad. D Will is an upgrade, no matter what you believe, and Matthews should be around Monta's production. If Parsons gets back for the season and they have even decent health I expect mid 40s wins and around the 8 seed.

I mean I'd love for that to be correct, but Monta gave us b2b years of 80 games and 19 ppg while being our main offensive creator. Being realistic with Matthews I think we have to expect him miss some games and probably have reduced minutes. Plus he just isn't that type of offensive player.

Don't get me wrong, I think a healthy Wes Matthews is a better piece than Monta Ellis, but replacing his production is really hard for me to see. I think Parsons and Deron are the guys who are going to have to replace Monta.

As far as creating I'd agree, but Wes is at least a better shooter and defender than Monta I'd think.

[cammac]

Dallas got screwed and Matthews contract is excessive they tired to make Dirks sunset years memorable unfortunately more nightmarish.
D unfortunately