Vegas Team Win Lines (Prediction time!)

Knosh · Post #1 » by **Knosh** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:13 am

West:

Golden State Warriors  60.5
San Antonio Spurs      58.5
Oklahoma City Thunder  57.5
Los Angeles Clippers   56.5
Houston Rockets        54.5
Memphis Grizzlies      50.5
New Orleans Pelicans   47.5
Utah Jazz              40.5
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks       38.5
Phoenix Suns           36.5
Sacramento Kings       30.5
Los Angeles Lakers     29.5
Denver Nuggets         26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5

East:

Code: Select all

Cleveland Cavaliers  56.5
Atlanta Hawks        49.5
Chicago Bulls        49.5
Miami Heat           45.5
Toronto Raptors      45.5
Washington Wizards   45.5
Milwaukee Bucks      43.5
Boston Celtics       42.5
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers       42.5
Detroit Pistons      33.5
Charlotte Hornets    32.5
Orlando Magic        32.5
New York Knicks      31.5
Brooklyn Nets        28.5
Philadelphia 76ers   21.5

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13772067/nba-westgate-las-vegas-superbook-releases-2015-16-season-win-totals

Here's the test.

Simple version:
Pick 3 teams that look too low, and 3 that look to high.

Advanced version:
Follow above, but also make a stab at every single line (Over, Under, Too close to call)

I am a Genius! (this isn't being saved, right?) version:
Follow above, and give an exact win total prediction for every single team.

So, who's feeling brave?

Last years thread (any resemblance is purely coincidental)

giberish · Post #2 » by **giberish** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:47 am

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Close
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Under
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Close
Houston Rockets 54.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Close
Utah Jazz 40.5 Over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Close
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Over
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Close
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Close
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Close
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Close

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Close
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Close
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Close
Miami Heat 45.5 Over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Over
Washington Wizards 45.5 Over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Under
Boston Celtics 42.5 Close
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Close
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Close
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Over
Orlando Magic 32.5 Close
New York Knicks 31.5 Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Close
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Over

Top Bets : Charlotte, Sacramento, Phoenix, Memphis over. OKC, NYK under.

More over than under as they're balanced out by a couple of teams that go way under due to an injury collapse, but I don't know which teams those will be yet.

Greenraida · Post #3 » by **Greenraida** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:53 am

GSW, Pelicans, Celtics too high (also raptors).

Charlotte, miami, rockets too low.

DanishLakerFan · Post #4 » by **DanishLakerFan** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:16 am

Too low: Rockets, Phoenix, Heat
Too high: Hawks, Bulls, Mavs

Post #5 » by **QRich3** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:20 am

Most of them are pretty well picked. I'd be comfortable taking the over on the Rockets, T-Wolves and Pistons, and the under on the Mavericks and Pacers. Bulls too, if you press me for a third one.
What the hell, let's take a stab at all of them:

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Close
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Close
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Close
Houston Rockets 54.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Close
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Close
Utah Jazz 40.5 Over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Close
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Close
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Over

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Close
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Close
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Under
Miami Heat 45.5 Close
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Under
Washington Wizards 45.5 Over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Close
Boston Celtics 42.5 Close
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Over
Orlando Magic 32.5 Close
New York Knicks 31.5 Close
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Close
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Close

Post #6 » by **bondom34** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:45 pm

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Close
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Close
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Close
Houston Rockets 54.5 Close
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Close
Utah Jazz 40.5 Over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Over
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Close
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Close
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Over
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Close

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Close (would be over but the recent injuries)
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Under
Miami Heat 45.5 Over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Close
Washington Wizards 45.5 Close
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Over
Boston Celtics 42.5 Close
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Over
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Over
Orlando Magic 32.5 Under
New York Knicks 31.5 Close
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Under
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Over

Top Bets : Kings, Pacers, Hawks over. Bulls, Mavs, Warriors under.

Post #7 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:05 pm

Overs: Utah, Charlotte, Milwaukee
Unders: Dallas, San Antonio, Detroit

I'm surprised some have the Warriors as an under. 61+ doesn't feel that unlikely

Post #8 » by **Trader_Joe** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:23 pm

Over
NYK
Miami
Houston

Under
Memphis
Indy
Suns

Post #9 » by **bondom34** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:24 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:Overs: Utah, Charlotte, Milwaukee
Unders: Dallas, San Antonio, Detroit

I'm surprised some have the Warriors as an under. 61+ doesn't feel that unlikely

To me, a big part is that everyone improved it seems, and the wins for others have to come from somewhere. Most of the recent teams with 60 win seasons have been Lebron teams at first glance, and many in the east.

Post #10 » by **QRich3** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:46 pm

Yup, last team with consecutive 60+ win seasons was Lebron's Cavaliers in 2010. Only teams to do it in the last 15 years were them and the big 3 Celtics, both in the East. There's been several seasons in that period where no team has won 60 games. It's not a slight at the Warriors, just a testament of how hard it is to accomplish that.

Post #11 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:50 pm

QRich3 wrote:Yup, last team with consecutive 60+ win seasons was Lebron's Cavaliers in 2010. Only teams to do it in the last 15 years were them and the big 3 Celtics, both in the East. There's been several seasons in that period where no team has won 60 games. It's not a slight at the Warriors, just a testament of how hard it is to accomplish that.

Oh no doubt winning 60+ is really hard--especially to do it b2b, but I don't think its quite as unusual as you suggest. At least one other team that I'm intimately familiar with has done it in the last 15 years. Dallas in 06 won 60 and in 07 won 67.

Post #12 » by **QRich3** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:53 pm

Yeah, I counted 60+ seasons, not just a rounded 60, which is the requirement for the Dubs to get the over :wink:

But yeah, those Mavs teams were pretty impressive

PS- In any case, there was no other team that got consecutive 60-win seasons since the 1999 lockout, only those three. Bulls and Spurs might qualify if you project lockout seasons for their 82-games equivalent, but I think that devalues the purpose a bit. But the point was probability says it's gonna be really hard for the Warriors to get that many wins again.

Golabki · Post #13 » by **Golabki** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:55 pm

[quote="Greenraida"]GSW, Pelicans, Celtics too high (also raptors)[/quote]
I disagree on the celtics - if anything I think it's too low.

I agree on the pels - they are getting a lot of credit for gentry.

Post #14 » by **Texas Chuck** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:13 pm

QRich3 wrote:
PS- In any case, there was no other team that got consecutive 60-win seasons since the 1999 lockout, only those three. Bulls and Spurs might qualify if you project lockout seasons for their 82-games equivalent, but I think that devalues the purpose a bit. But the point was probability says it's gonna be really hard for the Warriors to get that many wins again.

yeah that's fair. After I posted about the Mavs which obviously I knew off the top of my head I went and looked at some of the obvious contenders and found several teams that won 60+ right before or after a season winning exactly 59, but I guess it is more rare than I thought. I felt sure the Spurs would have managed it at least once and I thought the Thunder might have done it. And neither version of the Kobe/Phil Lakers managed it(Shaq obviously didn't care enough about RS).

So basically what I'm saying is that I was wrong on this one. :oops:

BudenFerry · Post #15 » by **BudenFerry** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:55 pm

Well this stinks. The initial line prediction for the Hawks was 46.5 a month ago and I was going to jump all over that. I'm confident they win over 50 but 49.5 doesn't leave much margin for error aka injuries.

uraverage · Post #16 » by **uraverage** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:53 pm

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

Post #17 » by **bondom34** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:56 pm

uraverage wrote:It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

uraverage · Post #18 » by **uraverage** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:58 pm

bondom34 wrote:
uraverage wrote:It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
.

Crap forgot about those two....

psimanic1 · Post #19 » by **psimanic1** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:03 pm

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Close
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Close
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Close
Houston Rockets 54.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Under
Utah Jazz 40.5 Under
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Close
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Under
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Close
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Over
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Close
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Close

East:

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Close
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Under
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Under
Miami Heat 45.5 Close
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Close
Washington Wizards 45.5 Close
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Close
Boston Celtics 42.5 Under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Over
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Close
Orlando Magic 32.5 Close
New York Knicks 31.5 Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Close
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Under

blind prophet · Post #20 » by **blind prophet** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:21 pm

EZ money on the Kings over and Lakers under.