Bucks - Heat

[Tfence92]

Bucks receive: Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem, Josh Richardson, 2018 2nd round pick(31-40 protected; if not conveyed in 2018, turns into a 2021 2nd round pick, unprotected) the right to swap 2019 1st round picks (top 7 protected).

Heat receive: Jerryd Bayless and Miles Plumlee.

For the optimal cap reasons, the trade is broken down into 3 trades; more so it's just a mix of being simultaneous/non-simultaneous:

Trade 1
Chris Andersen for 2018 2nd round pick and the right to swap 2019 1st round picks
Bucks absorb Andersen into their TPE created from the offseason trade of Zaza Pachulia, thus creating a $5,000,000 TPE for Miami.

Trade 2
Bayless for Haslem
Straight forward here, nothing fancy.

Trade 3
Richardson for Plumlee

Miami is able to make this because they can absorb Plumlee into their TPE created from the Mario Chalmers trade earlier this season.

Bucks take a chance to get some better picks (hopefully they will be competing in 2019, thus making a swap worthwhile) and getting a nice piece in Josh Richardson.

Miami further hedges it's bet on the next few years, assuming they'll still be competing in 2019, and getting some much needed guard help for this year in Bayless.

On top of that, they get plenty of luxury tax relief:
Savings on ESPN: $8,344,727.50
Savings on Hoopshype:$8,551,058.75
Savings on Spotrac: $8,319,175.75
Savings on Basketball Insiders: $8,309,173.25

Note: Bucks cut Andersen and Haslem immediately. Haslem presumably goes back to Miami as a coach and Andersen signs with a contender for one last hurrah.

Edit: Bucks waive Copeland before trade.

[bdpecore]

Bucks receive: Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem, Josh Richardson, 2018 2nd round pick(31-40 protected; if not conveyed in 2018, turns into a 2021 2nd round pick, unprotected) the right to swap 2019 1st round picks (top 7 protected).

Heat receive: Jerryd Bayless and Miles Plumlee.

For the optimal cap reasons, the trade is broken down into 3 trades; more so it's just a mix of being simultaneous/non-simultaneous:

Trade 1
Chris Andersen for 2018 2nd round pick and the right to swap 2019 1st round picks
Bucks absorb Andersen into their TPE created from the offseason trade of Zaza Pachulia, thus creating a $5,000,000 TPE for Miami.

Trade 2
Bayless for Haslem
Straight forward here, nothing fancy.

Trade 3
Richardson for Plumlee
Miami is able to make this because they can absorb Plumlee into their TPE created from the Mario Chalmers trade earlier this season.

Bucks take a chance to get some better picks (hopefully they will be competing in 2019, thus making a swap worthwhile) and getting a nice piece in Josh Richardson.

Miami further hedges it's bet on the next few years, assuming they'll still be competing in 2019, and getting some much needed guard help for this year in Bayless.

On top of that, they get plenty of luxury tax relief:
Savings on ESPN: $8,344,727.50
Savings on Hoopshype:$8,551,058.75
Savings on Spotrac: $8,319,175.75
Savings on Basketball Insiders: $8,309,173.25

Note: Bucks cut Andersen and Haslem immediately. Haslem presumably goes back to Miami as a coach and Andersen signs with a contender for one last hurrah.

So basically its Josh Richardson, a mid/late 2nd in 2018 and the right to swap picks in 2019 for Bayless and Plumlee. AND the Bucks are taking on an additional $3.2MM in dead salary. Ummmmm..........no thanks!

[ChrisTheFuturePaul]

Yea there really isn't any valuable incentive here for the Bucks.

[Texas Chuck]

Can't see the Heat giving up a top 7 protected swap just to dump these expirings and rent Bayless. Yes they save a lot of money when you factor in tax, but the value just isn't there.

No idea how a Bucks fan could see this and honestly respond no.

[bdpecore]

Can't see the Heat giving up a top 7 protected swap just to dump these expirings and rent Bayless. Yes they save a lot of money when you factor in tax, but the value just isn't there.

No idea how a Bucks fan could see this and honestly respond no.

By 2019, both teams should be playoff caliber meaning the pick swap would likely will be in the 15-25 range if anything at all since it is extremely possible Miami is still a better team.

[Texas Chuck]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

[bdpecore]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

I definitely see your point and would strongly consider this offer if we cannot find anything else of value in exchange for Bayless and/or Plumlee.

[Tfence92]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

This^

There's a shot you could end up with a good first round pick if Miami hits a wall. Otherwise you get a second and Richardson for guys who are gone in 3 months anyway.

[skones]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

But when you're paying 3 or 4 million real world dollars for what might be a second round pick? If I'm an owner, I'm wary af.

[Tfence92]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

But when you're paying 3 or 4 million real world dollars for what might be a second round pick? If I'm an owner, I'm wary af.

You get Richardson and a 2nd for sure.

You open up more playing time for the likes of Vaughn.

Maybe you find some Dleague guy with some value with those open roster spots?

And then you have the possibility of getting a pick upgrade in a few years from a franchise that is getting older and older. Miami is at a cross roads the next year or two and they need to figure out what they are going to do there.

[gom]

From a Heat fan perspective:

I don't care about trade 1. Micky's tax savings mean nothing at all to me as a fan, and the chances of us using your 2nd round pick for something valuable or almost zero. Swapping picks in 2019? We do expect to be competitive then so that's not a big deal for me either.

Trade 2 will not happen. Udonis Haslem is important to our team and he may not be traded, even if it is to quit and return as a coach as implied. I know his numbers are ugly but he is smart and vital to our locker room and bench. It's imperative (for now) that he is a player. If we want to make him a coach (Are you suggesting because you know that Keith Smart is in a long treatment for skin cancer? He should recover fine...), we'll just turn him into a player-coach.

Trade 3 is unlikely too. We have too many front court players and not enough guards. Richardson is going to have a chance this year. He is not guaranteed for next year, but if he works out, he'll probably stick around. Right now, it looks uncertain, but the ball's in his court. In contrast, I don't really see Plumlee getting much time at all.

[skones]

Yeah there is a risk that Miami is a good team, but Bosh, Wade, and Dragic are all going to be considerably worse at that point and likely still taking up a bunch of payroll. And even now with them all reasonably healthy they aren't very good.

Considering all you are doing is taking on some money(and none long-term)and giving up a couple players you don't care about, it seems like a gamble well worth taking, no?

But when you're paying 3 or 4 million real world dollars for what might be a second round pick? If I'm an owner, I'm wary af.

You get Richardson and a 2nd for sure.

You open up more playing time for the likes of Vaughn.

Maybe you find some Dleague guy with some value with those open roster spots?

And then you have the possibility of getting a pick upgrade in a few years from a franchise that is getting older and older. Miami is at a cross roads the next year or two and they need to figure out what they are going to do there.

Nobody in their right mind is going to spend that amount of money on a second round pick and the likes of Josh Richardson who I don't like to begin with. That's the point. The pick swap is so far out that it's hard to justify that expenditure. The value here is based upon crossed fingers and nothing more.

[gom]

But when you're paying 3 or 4 million real world dollars for what might be a second round pick? If I'm an owner, I'm wary af.

You get Richardson and a 2nd for sure.

You open up more playing time for the likes of Vaughn.

Maybe you find some Dleague guy with some value with those open roster spots?

And then you have the possibility of getting a pick upgrade in a few years from a franchise that is getting older and older. Miami is at a cross roads the next year or two and they need to figure out what they are going to do there.

Nobody in their right mind is going to spend that amount of money on a second round pick and the likes of Josh Richardson who I don't like to begin with. That's the point. The pick swap is so far out that it's hard to justify that expenditure. The value here is based upon crossed fingers and nothing more.

FTFY

[skones]

You get Richardson and a 2nd for sure.

You open up more playing time for the likes of Vaughn.

Maybe you find some Dleague guy with some value with those open roster spots?

And then you have the possibility of getting a pick upgrade in a few years from a franchise that is getting older and older. Miami is at a cross roads the next year or two and they need to figure out what they are going to do there.

Nobody in their right mind is going to spend that amount of money on a second round pick and the likes of Josh Richardson who I don't like to begin with. That's the point. The pick swap is so far out that it's hard to justify that expenditure. The value here is based upon crossed fingers and nothing more.

FTFY

Ugh. Play still stands as called on the field.

[buckboy]

I thought pick swaps couldn't be protected?

[Tfence92]

From a Heat fan perspective:

I don't care about trade 1. Micky's tax savings mean nothing at all to me as a fan, and the chances of us using your 2nd round pick for something valuable or almost zero. Swapping picks in 2019? We do expect to be competitive then so that's not a big deal for me either.

Trade 2 will not happen. Udonis Haslem is important to our team and he may not be traded, even if it is to quit and return as a coach as implied. I know his numbers are ugly but he is smart and vital to our locker room and bench. It's imperative (for now) that he is a player. If we want to make him a coach (Are you suggesting because you know that Keith Smart is in a long treatment for skin cancer? He should recover fine...), we'll just turn him into a player-coach.

Trade 3 is unlikely too. We have too many front court players and not enough guards. Richardson is going to have a chance this year. He is not guaranteed for next year, but if he works out, he'll probably stick around. Right now, it looks uncertain, but the ball's in his court. In contrast, I don't really see Plumlee getting much time at all.

You do realize that it's all technically one trade?

And to counter your points:
1.) Haslem was just in to get a better tax savings for you guys. He plays like 5 minutes once a week, I figured that opening up that roster spot and just making him a coach won't really change much. Not suggesting anything about Keith Smart fwiw, I just think he is basically already a coach so it's no change really.
That said, I realize that it would be very unlikely he is dealt.
2.) Bayless can come in and directly contribute in your front court, getting more minutes than Richardson.
On top of that I can't imagine how Plumlee doesn't get minutes in a backcourt that has Stoudemire, Andersen and Haslem?

[Tfence92]

But when you're paying 3 or 4 million real world dollars for what might be a second round pick? If I'm an owner, I'm wary af.

You get Richardson and a 2nd for sure.

You open up more playing time for the likes of Vaughn.

Maybe you find some Dleague guy with some value with those open roster spots?

And then you have the possibility of getting a pick upgrade in a few years from a franchise that is getting older and older. Miami is at a cross roads the next year or two and they need to figure out what they are going to do there.

Nobody in their right mind is going to spend that amount of money on a second round pick and the likes of Josh Richardson who I don't like to begin with. That's the point. The pick swap is so far out that it's hard to justify that expenditure. The value here is based upon crossed fingers and nothing more.

Isn't that what most trades like this would be? You're trading away players now for a chance to get better ones in the coming year.

Please find me a trade where you're going to get something better for an expiring under sized 2 guard and a 27 year old 5 that has been buried on a bench for two seasons; not to mention he is also expiring, albeit with a $3M QO next year.

[Tfence92]

I thought pick swaps couldn't be protected?

You tell me. I thought I've seen it before and it would be a good idea.

Edit: it appears to be a thing looking at the picks owed page, but maybe it's worded weirdly.

[gom]

From a Heat fan perspective:

I don't care about trade 1. Micky's tax savings mean nothing at all to me as a fan, and the chances of us using your 2nd round pick for something valuable or almost zero. Swapping picks in 2019? We do expect to be competitive then so that's not a big deal for me either.

Trade 2 will not happen. Udonis Haslem is important to our team and he may not be traded, even if it is to quit and return as a coach as implied. I know his numbers are ugly but he is smart and vital to our locker room and bench. It's imperative (for now) that he is a player. If we want to make him a coach (Are you suggesting because you know that Keith Smart is in a long treatment for skin cancer? He should recover fine...), we'll just turn him into a player-coach.

Trade 3 is unlikely too. We have too many front court players and not enough guards. Richardson is going to have a chance this year. He is not guaranteed for next year, but if he works out, he'll probably stick around. Right now, it looks uncertain, but the ball's in his court. In contrast, I don't really see Plumlee getting much time at all.

You do realize that it's all technically one trade?

And to counter your points:
1.) Haslem was just in to get a better tax savings for you guys. He plays like 5 minutes once a week, I figured that opening up that roster spot and just making him a coach won't really change much. Not suggesting anything about Keith Smart fwiw, I just think he is basically already a coach so it's no change really.
That said, I realize that it would be very unlikely he is dealt.
2.) Bayless can come in and directly contribute in your front court, getting more minutes than Richardson.
On top of that I can't imagine how Plumlee doesn't get minutes in a backcourt that has Stoudemire, Andersen and Haslem?

I do. I critiqued each piece to help you understand the difficulty.

I don't really see a deal like this going down. I read your post a few times (it's been tequila time already) and am guessing you have the front court and back court exchanged. Stoudemire has been playing pretty well for us (crazy, right? Even defense...) and Haslem is very dependable. Andersen is clearly for sale and we don't want him hurt (though I doubt if it matters much - he is 37). I don't think we need Plumlee at all.

Bayless interests because he is a 42% 3 pt shooter this season, but that's an aberration. Over his career he is a 35.7% 3 pt shooter. He has a terrible defensive rating of 112, but that's not the biggest problem: he plays the wrong position. We actually need a spot up 3 point shooter who plays Small Forward, someone like Luol Deng if he hit a 3 at 37.5% or more.

So, yeah, I don't see this working out at all. By the way, Richardson is being trashed here as a 2nd rounder, but he's actually a kid with a lot of potential. He is 22 though, so... time's a ticking.

[buckboy]

I thought pick swaps couldn't be protected?

You tell me. I thought I've seen it before and it would be a good idea.

Edit: it appears to be a thing looking at the picks owed page, but maybe it's worded weirdly.

Yeah, I don't know either. And my research yielded nothing concrete.