Owed 2017 1st round picks: Predict them now (and update em after FA)

Post #1 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:30 pm

Pre-Lotto where do you see these picks falling? Ideally if you can take a pick and give what you think is the average pick it should be, and maybe a range of likely values?

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for
GS -- unprotected to Utah
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

I.e.
Boston -- 21st, with a big range of 15-25
Brooklyn -- I expect to pick on average (pre-lotto) at 2nd, and in a range of 1-6.
GS -- Expect it to be 30th, and in a range of 25-30 cause injuries are always possible. Etc.

Post #2 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:31 pm

Super curious to see if people have predictions now, and then if/how they change within the next 7-10 days. Some picks should dramatically, right?

Post #3 » by **City of Trees** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:39 pm

At the moment SAC doesn't have a starting PG or SG so id say they will be a lotto team again. Hope that changes soon.

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reload141 · Post #4 » by **reload141** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:13 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Boston -- 16-24 range (Should stay in playoffs with minimal moves)
Brooklyn -- 1-5 range (Will miss out on all big FAs and be bottom 5 again)
GS -- 28-30 (Will still be top 2 overall in both conferences)
LA Clippers -- 24-27 range (Always has a good record with Paul/Blake/DJ)
LA Lakers -- 2-6 range (Can see them punting the season and half tanking again after missing out on some FAs and Ingram doesn't move the needle that much this year)
Memphis -- 1-5 range (I am predicting Conley leaves and they trade Gasol to tank)
Philly -- 3-8 range (I think they will finally move off the bottom with some FA signings)
Sacramento -- 4-10 range (I have literally no idea with Sac. Do they trade Cousins at the deadline? who knows)

reload141 · Post #5 » by **reload141** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:33 pm

I forgot to mention, what are your predictions Hartford?

Post #6 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:41 pm

reload141 wrote:I forgot to mention, what are your predictions Hartford?

Boston -- 21st, with a big range of 15-25
Brooklyn -- expect to pick on average (pre-lotto) at 2nd, and in a range of 1-6.
GS -- Expect it to be 30th, and in a range of 25-30 cause injuries are always possible. Etc.
LA Clippers -- 27th. 18-29 range, with the long tail because of injuries but almost definitely 24-30
LA Lakers -- 3rd. This looks like it will go worse than expected, although my full range is more 1-8. I expect when they realize they are 5th at the trade deadline they tank the holy ever living crap out of it.
Memphis -- 18th. 6 - 26th range. Wow, this one is absurdly wide range. Conley leaving or staying and Gasol recovering or not make it a fair game that its top 5 pick without either or they are a top 5 team with both and Parsons.
Philly -- 4th 1-8 range. I mean it all depends on what trades they do, right? But even then its a bottom 8 team.
Sacramento -- 7th. 4-16 range. Things look worse than last year to me.

I have the Nets at 2nd, LAL at 3rd, and Philly at 4th. Who is worse than all of em? No one. But maybe someone gets injured and another team tanks horribly? On average they will all get pushed towards the middle but there is no one I predict as worse than them all.

HornetJail · Post #7 » by **HornetJail** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:33 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Pre-Lotto where do you see these picks falling? Ideally if you can take a pick and give what you think is the average pick it should be, and maybe a range of likely values?

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for
GS -- unprotected to Utah
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

I.e.
Boston -- 21st, with a big range of 15-25
Brooklyn -- I expect to pick on average (pre-lotto) at 2nd, and in a range of 1-6.
GS -- Expect it to be 30th, and in a range of 25-30 cause injuries are always possible. Etc.

As of right now my predictions include what I expect to happen in free agency:

Boston: 20
Brooklyn: 10
GS: 29
LAC: 27
Lakers: 4
Memphis: 11
Philly: 2
Sacramento: 12

Post #8 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:34 pm

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Pre-Lotto where do you see these picks falling? Ideally if you can take a pick and give what you think is the average pick it should be, and maybe a range of likely values?

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for
GS -- unprotected to Utah
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

I.e.
Boston -- 21st, with a big range of 15-25
Brooklyn -- I expect to pick on average (pre-lotto) at 2nd, and in a range of 1-6.
GS -- Expect it to be 30th, and in a range of 25-30 cause injuries are always possible. Etc.

As of right now my predictions include what I expect to happen in free agency:

Boston: 20
Brooklyn: 10
GS: 29
LAC: 27
Lakers: 4
Memphis: 11
Philly: 2
Sacramento: 12

Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?

HornetJail · Post #9 » by **HornetJail** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:36 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?

Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

reload141 · Post #10 » by **reload141** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:37 pm

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?
Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

I'm curious what teams you put under Brooklyn with Rondo/BLopez and a bunch of role players if you could name them?

Post #11 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:38 pm

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?
Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

Hmm. I might have to upgrade my prediction on them. But not that far, maybe to 4th from 2nd. Rondo is a good argument.

HornetJail · Post #12 » by **HornetJail** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:41 pm

reload141 wrote:
MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?
Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

I'm curious what teams you put under Brooklyn with Rondo/BLopez and a bunch of role players if you could name them?

I was spitballing with 10 (might be a bit generous), but Philly, LAL, Denver, Atlanta without Horford or Teague, New Orleans, Phoenix.

Maybe they're at 7

reload141 · Post #13 » by **reload141** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:44 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
MotorKeepsGoing wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm too curious. Who goes to Brooklyn (roughly) to get them that big of a jump?
Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

Hmm. I might have to upgrade my prediction on them. But not that far, maybe to 4th from 2nd. Rondo is a good argument.

But is he? He gambles on defense so much nowadays for steals and yeah he can put up triple doubles a lot but are they efficient triple doubles? I don't doubt for a second he will get BLopez some good looks but he still can't shoot and will need A LOT of shooters around him to be slightly effective... As a Boston fan I would be happy if they paid Rondo. J-Lin on the other hand I would be more worried about them climbing the rankings.

Post #14 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:47 pm

reload141 wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
MotorKeepsGoing wrote:Rondo and a bunch of role players. I think Rondo can make a crap team decent.

Hmm. I might have to upgrade my prediction on them. But not that far, maybe to 4th from 2nd. Rondo is a good argument.

But is he? He gambles on defense so much nowadays for steals and yeah he can put up triple doubles a lot but are they efficient triple doubles? I don't doubt for a second he will get BLopez some good looks but he still can't shoot and will need A LOT of shooters around him to be slightly effective... As a Boston fan I would be happy if they paid Rondo. J-Lin on the other hand I would be more worried about them climbing the rankings.

Philly's roster is still an unbalanced mess. Lakers best player might just be to thin to play in the league. Moving from expected value pick 2 to expect value pick 4 isn't expecting a lot from Rondo, but enough that they aren't the biggest tire fire in the league. I wouldn't have them near 10th for instance, but maybe not the worst team after all.

Post #15 » by **bondom34** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 1:20 am

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for
GS -- unprotected to Utah
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

Boston and BKN will swap, Brooklyn again top 5, Boston 20-24

GSW - 30 (range of 26-31)

LAC - 26 (range of 23-29)

LAL - 6 (range of 4-10)

Memphis - 20 (range of 16-22)

Philly and Sacramento swap, Philly ends up 10-13, Sacramento 8-10. (Edited, Philly would be better in the standings and call the swap)

Post #16 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 1:21 am

bondom34 wrote:Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

Philly and Sacramento don't swap, Philly ends up 10-13, Sacramento 8-10.

I will bite. Why wouldn't Philly call in the swap there?

Post #17 » by **BullyKing** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 1:22 am

bondom34 wrote:Philly and Sacramento don't swap, Philly ends up 10-13, Sacramento 8-10.

I'm terrified imagining what Colangelo would have done that would get us to 10-13.

Post #18 » by **Smitty731** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 1:23 am

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for
GS -- unprotected to Utah
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

Boston - 20-26. Same general range as this year.
Brooklyn - 1-5. Boston will be swapping for this pick.
Golden State - 26-30. Still a contender, but maybe less push than last year.
LA Clippers - 20-26. Maybe a little step back, but still in the playoffs. Pick goes to Toronto for sure.
LA Lakers - 1-5. They might be awful again. Philly might get that pick after all.
Memphis - 12-24. They'll give this pick to Denver.
Philadelphia - 1-14. I think they'll be in the Lottery still, but they could be improved big time. It is happening eventually!
Sacramento - 10-22. Big range. Not sure where they end up landing. So hard to predict.

Post #19 » by **bondom34** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 1:26 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for

Philly and Sacramento don't swap, Philly ends up 10-13, Sacramento 8-10.

I will bite. Why wouldn't Philly call in the swap there?

I have to edit...

BullyKing wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Philly and Sacramento don't swap, Philly ends up 10-13, Sacramento 8-10.

I'm terrified imagining what Colangelo would have done that would get us to 10-13.

I just think there will be improvement and the Kings will be really bad. I pretty much think you'll get a decent PG and an RFA, nothing crazy.

Post #20 » by **Texas Chuck** » Fri Jul 1, 2016 3:02 am

Pre-Lotto where do you see these picks falling? Ideally if you can take a pick and give what you think is the average pick it should be, and maybe a range of likely values?

Boston -- can be swapped for Brooklyn pick - Swapped 20-27 (#24)
Brooklyn -- Boston can swap for- Swapped 1-8 (#4)
GS -- unprotected to Utah 24-30 (#28)
LA Clippers -- top 14 protected if not to Toronto Conveyed (18-30) ( #26)
LA Lakers -- top 3 protected if not to Philly Does not Convey (#1)
Memphis -- top 5 protected if not to Denver Conveyed (#22)
Philly -- can be swapped for Sac pick if Sac pick is 1-10 Swapped Kings end up with the #7 pick
Sacramento -- top 10 protected, if not to Chicago. If in top 10, Philly can swap for Not conveyed to Bulls, Swapped with Philly (#2)