Washington early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/nate33)

[HartfordWhalers]

Washington Offseason in Review

Hartfordwhalers Review

Key Losses:
Jared Dudley

Last year's free pickup is this year's key loss.

Losses:
Alan Anderson
J.J. Hickson
Nene Hilario
Ramon Sessions
Garrett Temple

Combined losing all those players feels a lot worse than any of them individually.

Draft: None

Had full cash available to buy a late second rounder

Trades:
A 2021 second-rounder for Trey Burke

Seems a fine buy low move, although Trey hasn't been good. Still, the price makes it seem like a good gamble.

Free Agency:
Bradley Beal 5/127m
Ian Mahinmi 4/62m
Andrew Nicholson 4/26m (PO last year)
Jason Smith to a 3/15.7m (PO last year)
Thomas Satoransky 3/9m
Marcus Thornton 1.3m
Mostly ung min deals to Daniel Ochefu 3 years

This offseason will probably live and die by Beal's health. Mahini is a solid center at a fair price. Nicholson can score even if he cannot defend. Jason Smith has fans as a floor stretcher, although his utility there isn't clear cut. But basically it all comes down to a lot of money in two equally paid centers, and Beal's health.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: John Wall, Trey Burke
SG: Bradley Beal, Marcus Thornton, Tomas Satoransky
SF: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Jarell Eddie
PF: Markieff Morris, Andrew Nicholson
C: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Jason Smith, Daniel Ochefu

Needs: Otto Porter progression, Markieff Morris to return to his pre-issue numbers, and Beal to be healthy.

Additional Thoughts: Throwing Nicholson and Mahinmi's money combined at Ryan Anderson would have made some sense. But I like Mahinmi and supporting Gortat at center better. Don't get me wrong, there is a lot of risk in the pf rotation, and there will be trade rumblings at center like it or not. But an aging Ryan Anderson/Gortat rotation and that feels both riskier and with less upside to me. What would I have liked better? A flier on the health risk of Motie to couple the health risk of Beal perhaps? Getting Beal cheaper than realistic because of his health concerns? I wouldn't have minded Speights for half or even all Jason Smiths numbers. That said, everything was perfectly fine for making the best out of not getting even close to signing Durant.

Projected Win/Loss: 41-41

Off-Season Grade: C

bondom34 Review

Key Losses:
Jared Dudley

Last year's free pickup is this year's key loss.

Losses:
Alan Anderson
J.J. Hickson
Nene Hilario
Ramon Sessions
Garrett Temple

Combined losing all those players feels a lot worse than any of them individually.

Draft: None

Had full cash available to buy a late second rounder

Trades:
A 2021 second-rounder for Trey Burke

I like this, they could use a backup and its basically nothing for a young guy.

Free Agency:
Bradley Beal 5/127m
Ian Mahinmi 4/62m
Andrew Nicholson 4/26m (PO last year)
Jason Smith to a 3/15.7m (PO last year)
Thomas Satoransky 3/9m
Marcus Thornton 1.3m
Mostly ung min deals to Daniel Ochefu 3 years

We all knew Beal was getting a max, and I hate it but it was happening so I really can't blame them. Sato will be an interesting pickup as a draft and stash who I'm hoping to see. Nicholson isn't great, and Mahinmi is just confusing considering they have Gortat and signed Smith too. I'd have gone after a SG instead of one of them, there's really nothing great here but no awful deals I see either. Very blah.


Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: John Wall, Trey Burke
SG: Bradley Beal, Marcus Thornton, Tomas Satoransky
SF: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Jarell Eddie
PF: Markieff Morris, Andrew Nicholson
C: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Jason Smith, Daniel Ochefu

Needs:The young guys to develop and Beal's health.

Additional Thoughts: I said it above, blah is the word that comes to mind. I don't feel strongly either way. Not great, not awful.

Projected Win/Loss: 42-40

Off-Season Grade: C

dbrandon Review

Key Losses:
Jared Dudley

Dudley will be missed. They're banking on Porter and Oubre being ready to take more minutes at the 3 and Morris to have a resurgence at the 4, but I probably would have tried to keep him around. He's the perfect glue guy for this roster.

Losses:
Alan Anderson
J.J. Hickson
Nene Hilario
Ramon Sessions
Garrett Temple

You can stand to lose just about all these guys, although it'd be nice to have Anderson or Sessions as backups.

Draft: None

Trades:
A 2021 second-rounder for Trey Burke

The price is low. Not high on Trey, but hey--that's basically free. You could do worse.

Free Agency:
Bradley Beal 5/127m
Ian Mahinmi 4/62m
Andrew Nicholson 4/26m (PO last year)
Jason Smith to a 3/15.7m (PO last year)
Thomas Satoransky 3/9m
Marcus Thornton 1.3m
Mostly ung min deals to Daniel Ochefu 3 years

I like almost all of this, although Beal's health is the big sticking point. Can he stay healthy? If he can't that contract looks like an albatross pretty quick.

Nicholson's a useful player. Surprised the Magic didn't look at keeping him.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: John Wall, Trey Burke
SG: Bradley Beal, Marcus Thornton, Tomas Satoransky
SF: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Jarell Eddie
PF: Markieff Morris, Andrew Nicholson
C: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Jason Smith, Daniel Ochefu

Needs: Can Porter and Oubre start to develop? Those guys finding their place and Beal staying healthy are the big needs, with Morris getting back to form being close behind.

Additional Thoughts: This is a fine offseason to recover from not even getting a meeting with Durant. Not great, not bad, just fine. Decent value signings, no major mistakes, but you're banking a lot on Porter, Oubre and Beal. Center is almost TOO solid. I'll be shocked if Gortat doesn't wind up getting traded at some point.

Projected Win/Loss: 45

Off-Season Grade: C

nate33 Review

Key Losses:
Jared Dudley

Losses:
Alan Anderson
J.J. Hickson
Nene Hilario
Ramon Sessions
Garrett Temple

Draft: None

Trades:
A 2021 second-rounder for Trey Burke

Free Agency:
Bradley Beal 5/127m
Ian Mahinmi 4/62m
Andrew Nicholson 4/26m (PO last year)
Jason Smith to a 3/15.7m (PO last year)
Thomas Satoransky 3/9m
Marcus Thornton 1.3m
Mostly ung min deals to Daniel Ochefu 3 years

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: John Wall, Trey Burke
SG: Bradley Beal, Marcus Thornton, Tomas Satoransky
SF: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Jarell Eddie
PF: Markieff Morris, Andrew Nicholson
C: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Jason Smith, Daniel Ochefu

Needs:For needs, I'd say a veteran SF. As it stands now, they're really depending on the 20-year-old Oubre to play a key role as backup SF. I'm not sure he is ready.


Additional Thoughts:A lot is riding on the improvement of Beal and Porter. If one or both of them doesn't make a leap to stardom sometime soon, then this team will have basically peaked as a 45-win roster with no particular reason for optimism going forward. They're capped out for the foreseeable future, and the two best players, Wall and Gortat, aren't going to get any better.

Also, the bench is quite weak. Mahinmi is legit, but outside of him, everyone else on the bench is below average for a backup.

Projected Win/Loss: I'd guess 42-40. Their starters should be a bit better than last year with expected improvement from Beal and Porter, and with Morris here for the full season. But the bench will be worse. As soon as someone gets hurt, there will be a significant dropoff.

Off-Season Grade: an F. They gave Beal a full max rather than merely matching someone else's 4-year offer with 4.5% raises. They failed in getting Durant or Horford. Then they panicked and committed 4-years $27M per year for the backup front court of Mahinmi, Nicholson and Jason Smith. Of that group, only Mahinmi is better than a replacement caliber player. They've lost all cap flexibility for at least 3 years to hold together a 41-win team.

[Andre Roberstan]

Nate is spitting hot fire

I'd venture to say that the Wizards' long-term cap flexibility is not near as bad as that. They have several solid rotation players on decent deals—simple enough to get value back.

[loserX]

Very interesting to see reviews that generally agree...and the grades are 3 Cs and an F (the last from the Wiz fan)!

Best move: hiring Scotty Brooks. He has his detractors (often fairly) but he's a much much better coach for the modern game than Randy Wittman. I'm sure KD's free agency played a part in it, but even with Durant going elsewhere this is still a good move for this time. Time to move forward. (I also think picking up Trey Burke on the cheap...when other bench PGs are getting $7-8M long-term deals...was slick.)

Worst move: Mahinmi. It's not a *bad* move per se, he's a useful player and I like him. But he can't really play with Gortat, which makes this at least a curious move. And with Markieff on board I'm not sure why they need BOTH Smith and Nicholson at similar numbers. It seems like the Wiz just doubled up some moves for no real reason.

(Side note: I am a huge Beal stan and have no problem with that contract. Others may, and clearly do, feel differently!)

If we're counting players only, I'd put this somewhere around a C-/D. But I'm counting the coaching change so I'm bumping this up.

[Slava]

Outside of Wall, Beal and Morris there isn't a lot of reliable quality and the depth is terri-bad too, so it makes me wonder where all the money is going when Wall is on an older max and Morris is on a dirt cheap deal as well.

If I were a GM and Trey Burke, Marcus Thornton, Kelly Oubre are my back up 1-3 with a perennial injury case in Beal, an unproven Porter being starters with a playoff mandate from the ownership, I'd start handing out my resumes at summer league.

On the other hand I just got my hopes up that we might have a taker for Nick Young.

[Texas Chuck]

Nate is spitting hot fire

I'd venture to say that the Wizards' long-term cap flexibility is not near as bad as that. They have several solid rotation players on decent deals—simple enough to get value back.

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre. Their only real hope moving forward is for Beal to both stay healthy and make significant improves after looking like he has plateaued. It's hard for me to see that.

I'd like to see them deal off Gortat for value, get Morris playing well enough to move and find out if Oubre or Porter can be part of the future.

And this might get be killed, but I think they need to listen if someone makes a serious inquiry on Wall. And I think Phoenix should make a serious call on him. Denver too.

[bondom34]

Nate is spitting hot fire

I'd venture to say that the Wizards' long-term cap flexibility is not near as bad as that. They have several solid rotation players on decent deals—simple enough to get value back.

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre. Their only real hope moving forward is for Beal to both stay healthy and make significant improves after looking like he has plateaued. It's hard for me to see that.

I'd like to see them deal off Gortat for value, get Morris playing well enough to move and find out if Oubre or Porter can be part of the future.

And this might get be killed, but I think they need to listen if someone makes a serious inquiry on Wall. And I think Phoenix should make a serious call on him. Denver too.

I kind of agree. I don't ever give an F, and a C is pretty low for me (gave Miami one too and hated their offseason). Washington is in a weird spot, they're good but not contending and they don't have any really outstanding youth. I loved the Brooks hire but the rest is just so uninspired.

[wise1-2]

Pretty average offseason. They had to pay beal. I get that move but it wasn't a good one. Mahimñi is a solid signing, but a little overpaid. I like the smith and Nicholson signings, both underrated players. Nicholson is capable of being a good bench player. Few big men are as skilled in the post so he brings a much needed skill set for them.

[Andre Roberstan]

Nate is spitting hot fire

I'd venture to say that the Wizards' long-term cap flexibility is not near as bad as that. They have several solid rotation players on decent deals—simple enough to get value back.

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre. Their only real hope moving forward is for Beal to both stay healthy and make significant improves after looking like he has plateaued. It's hard for me to see that.

I'd like to see them deal off Gortat for value, get Morris playing well enough to move and find out if Oubre or Porter can be part of the future.

And this might get be killed, but I think they need to listen if someone makes a serious inquiry on Wall. And I think Phoenix should make a serious call on him. Denver too.

This is almost exactly what I'd say about their best long-term plan right now, though I'd be a bit more hesitant to move Wall.

[HartfordWhalers]

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre.

That was already the situation at the start of this offseason. If we were grading the past 3 years of progress, I would agree that the past several years have not been excellent.

[ackypoo]

Gave it a D, enjoy the treadmill.

What they should have done was let Beal go, bottomed out for a year, and made a big splash in FA next year. But, this is what teams do.

[Texas Chuck]

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre.

That was already the situation at the start of this offseason. If we were grading the past 3 years of progress, I would agree that the past several years have not been excellent.

That's fair.

I guess I just feel like this summer was a continuation of that with the Beal max and the Mahinmi etc deals. This team just feels like it needs a more major shakeup.

[BismackonLebron]

The starting lineup looks nice, but the bench needs some work. I'd give the offseason a C+. The Beal deal looks good to me, as does Nicholson. I think Mahimi was vastly overpaid, but so has everyone this offseason.

[HartfordWhalers]

I tend to side with Nate here. A couple years ago the Wizards looked like an up and coming team in the East. Now they look stagnant and mediocre.

That was already the situation at the start of this offseason. If we were grading the past 3 years of progress, I would agree that the past several years have not been excellent.

That's fair.

I guess I just feel like this summer was a continuation of that with the Beal max and the Mahinmi etc deals. This team just feels like it needs a more major shakeup.

They didn't have the firepower to shake up for the better. So, they could either solidify being a marginal playoff team, or tear everything to the ground, pour gasoline on whats left, and have a good old fashioned bonfire.

I get the second route if you are championship or bust, but I think they are too stable a mediocre team that you take what your hand is and play it out, get some 1st round outs for the next 3 years, and maybe somehow something breaks your way big time? It is clearly not the brightest future to look forward to, but its not the worst.

Lets not forget, the last time Washington had a better winning % than '15 season was '79. Getting back to near that would be a 25+ year high.

(Which might be why nate is spitting fire)

[Mich3006]

Signing Mahinmi, Nicholson and Smith is okay if they could find a trade partner for Gortat who´s willing to offer a wing (should be possible imo).

[montestewart]

General Manager Grunfeld and owner Leonsis telegraphed their plan for several years: cultivate a young core and a few solid veterans while creating cap room to sign Durant. They signed players to contracts that ended in 2016. Just like everyone in the league knew they would draft Vesely in 2011, everyone knew this was the Wizards plan in the 2016 offseason, and it went off like Vesely 2.0. Durant wouldn’t even give them a sniff. They overestimated the attractiveness of the young core. They failed to see how bare that cupboard looked. They are now capped out with a squad that doesn’t look improved from last year.

I like Mahinmi and I guess his contract reflects the new norm, but not sure what message the signing sends to Gortat, and it makes the team thick at center while other needs have gone unaddressed. A Gortat trade for a productive wing or combo guard would make sense, but I never bet on Wizards management doing something that makes sense.

None of the other acquisitions seem like sure things. Nicholson could work out, but its been pointed out that he was barely getting court time on a team that was worse than the Wizards last year and has greatly remade its roster this year (in other words, even the players that pushed him out of the rotation are gone). Satoransky is a low risk move that may finally somewhat vindicate his pick in 2012, but he hasn’t played a minute in the NBA, so…. Burke was a low risk acquisition, and he’s still young, but I don’t have high hopes for him either. No matter how well Smith does on the court (and I’m not expecting much), he’ll get $16 million over the next three years as the 5th or 6th big.

It’s sad when a team tries to portray as a victory being among the final two teams considered by Horford (if that’s even true). Would have loved Horford on the team, and I guess a big name FA even considering the Wizards is good for reputation, but I don’t know that he wasn’t using the Wizards as a negotiating prop, and a whiff is a whiff.

Since I think Mahinmi will probably be a good player and they finally brought Satoransky over, I can’t call the offseason a total failure. But the Wizards advertised their intent to go after Durant for two years before being so obviously dismissed as an insignificant suitor. It was like proposing marriage at the game, on the jumbotron, and being rejected. Some people would jump off a bridge after such a rejection, but the Wizards march forward, blithely rationalizing their way into their next phase of mediocrity. I can see why Nate gave them an F. But I am an optimist. I’ll give them a D.

[jayjaysee]

As a Mavs fan, I know all about being used by FA's to up their value and roughing a roster around your star.

Gortat could be traded or both him and Ian can be limited to 24mpg and neither could get beat up.. They are both good centers but neither should be used big minutes. If FA were an option having two big contracts at the center position would be a really bad situation - but it's not. So for a season or even two-three depending, I don't think Gortat/Ian is an issue at all.

I understand the idea of trading Wall and tanking. You'd be in a position to have a one year rebuild really. Ton of assets back for Wall, trade Gortat for the best pick. Let Morris average 20 and ship him too. Let Beal walk. But you can't let Beal walk and keep Wall imo. You aren't awful enough and you still aren't attractive to free agents.

I think not targeting a small forward was the right move once they didn't land Horford. Oubre and Porter are now Washington's chance at being more than a 1st round team right?

So targeting Ian over say Turner/Bazemore and burying the potential improvement while leaving a weak center. A year from now Porter might be considered better than those wings available, a couple years from now Oubre might be out of the league - or he might be a max player. But for sure next season Porter, at worst, is a small step down from any realistic FA and Ian/Gortat is a major upgrade over Gortat/Hickson.

The only thing I really disagree with the offseason is the money spent on Smith or Nicholson would have been better used on bringing back Sessions or a Augustin, Bayless type.

Feels like a Cuban offseason to me really, maybe that's why I don't see it as poorly as others.

[nate33]

I can accept that they planned for Durant/Horford in 2016 and ultimately failed. That alone doesn't earn them an F.

My problem was that they didn't have any Plan B. When Durant and Horford went elsewhere, they were left with a ton of cap room and only overpriced players to buy. The correct move would have been to accept that this season simply was not the year to make the Big Move. They should have mapped a new strategy for 2017, or better yet 2018. By then, this massive cash infusion into the league would have been distributed, and the price for free agents would come down to a more reasonable level. Every free agent they went after this summer should have been on a 1-year or 2-year contract - even if they had to overpay.

It's not the failure of this year that bothers me so much. It's the fact that they've condemned themselves to failure for 3 more years. They're going to have to pay to retain Porter next summer. With Porter factored, they have no useful cap room until 2019 when Wall and Gortat come off the books (at which point they will not be considered a free agency destination).

Basically, there is no hope for the foreseeable future. They're a 40-46 win treadmill team. Then Wall will leave in free agency and it's back to 3 or 4 years of rebuilding. For the life of me, I can't comprehend how Grunfeld still has a job.

[RexRyan]

I feel like they're not done. For their fans' sake, they better not be done! If they flip Gortat into a decent asset, then it all starts to make sense. But as it stands right now, I don't think they got any better. C-

[gom]

I was between a B-/C+ but opted for a C+.

First of all, Brooks was a GREAT signing.

Washington were plagued with injuries last year like few other teams. This year they will challenge for a playoff spot, but I don't see them as more than a fringe postseason team. The backcourt of Wall & Beal is excellent, but is not matched by the same quality elsewhere. That could change if Oubre and Satoransky (a good player) realize their potential. As it stands, however, the Wizards will struggle in the middle of the pack, but should have enough.

Other items:

Nicholson & Smith were both good signings - bargains, actually.
Mahinmi was an average deal. That's how much players cost now.
Beal was a bit more than I expected, but if he can stay healthy (admittedly a big "if") the deal will look better later.

[Colbinii]

They are in a very bad spot as a franchise. You have a top 10 PG in Wall, and I would think him and Gortat would make a great combo on the P&R along with Beal, but that isn't going to win any playoff games by itself. They have great frontcourt depth, but Wall isn't a good enough #1 option and the team around him isn't filled with 3+D players, which it should be to get the most out of Wall.
I didn't understand the trade during the season and I don't really unterstand getting this much frontcourt depth for 25+ Million per year. I mean, Minnesota got Hill/Collison for a fraction of that cost.
I give this off-season a D because I am happy with my coffee this morning.