HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Cole Aldrich
Paul Pierce (maybe?)
Jeff Green
Jeff Green played 26.3 mpg. Paul Pierce 18.1mpg, and Cole Aldich 13.3mpg.
I listed them all as key loses (pending Pierce retirement), but the one that stuck out the most was the guy who played the least minutes Cole Aldrich. Now, I'm not sure I would pay the salary he got from Minnesota to play him that few minutes in LAC but he was still 5th in VORP on the entire Clippers roster. Somehow he was 4th among all centers in the league in RPM, which I try not to cite because I think it is mostly junk and the way its used is worse, but I'm going ahead and be guilty of doing just that here anyway with (more than a little) tongue in check self awareness. Cole Aldrich was the 4th best center in the entire league by RPM! And they replaced him with Speights, who is the 55th best. Talk about a huge downgrade!!!
Jeff Green is just a guy. But he isn't a negative guy, he is just a guy. When you have Deandre, Blake, Paul, Redick, having a competent just a guy to slot in next to them is great. That said, it isn't a huge loss, he is just a guy.
Paul Pierce is coming up on the deadline that his contract can be stretched. Look for him to get cut and stretched before September 1st. Why is he a key loss? He isn't. But if LAC hadn't overpaid their other guys so much (and blew assets on things like Jeff Green last season with nothing to show for it, or dumping salary the year before), then Paul Pierce's contract could be used in a trade to get some extra depth. Think 2m cash and a 2nd rounder for Kendall Marshall (fully ung) and Hollis Thompson, or that lotto protected pick that instead went to Memphis for Green to the Nets for Bogdanovic. I like the idea of 2 2nds and cash for Bogdanovic but don't know that the Nets do it versus waiting for better 2nds.
Losses:
Pablo Prigioni
CJ Wilcox
Jeff Ayres
Branden Dawson
I swear Branden Dawson looked really good in at least one summer league game once. Looking it up it was probably July 8th 2015 versus the Knicks when he had 18 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists on 7-10 from the field and 4-5 from the ft line in just 25 minutes. I wish I hadn't seen that game, as my opinion of him is probably incredibly inflated as a result. Realistically nothing was lost in this area except the briefest of illusions that the Clippers had any youth worth a damn (Wilcox/Dawsen).
Draft:
#25 Brice Johnson
#39 David Michineau
#40 Diamond Stone
Not really what I had in mind here. I'm not seeing why Brice Johnson both as in why draft behind Blake and why draft him specifically. Skal Labissière, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac or Deyonta Davis would all have made me happier, as they all are raw swings and I don't see Brice getting play for a year anyway so why go for an older less upside pick?
Michineau looks to be a poor 3 point shooter and doesn't get all that many assists, just going off his stats and Dx profile looks over drafted. Demetrius Jackson made a ton of sense and was passed up instead. Or Michael Gbinije as a poor man's Wes Johnson. Stone seems a fine pick.
Trades:
Cheick Diallo (33rd) to New Orleans Pelicans for the rights to David Michineau (39th) and Diamond Stone (40th).
C.J. Wilcox and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Devyn Marble and a Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2020 second-rounder.
Don't mind the first trade at all, but disliked the Michineau pick. Second trade is basically salary dumping Wilcox, which isn't all that reassuring about the GM that picked him. Depending on the exact cash its not a bad trade, but handcuffing the cash available when you have given up so many assets already is a bad thing.
Free Agency:
Jamal Crawford 3/$42 m (30.5m gtd)
Wesley Johnson 3/$17.6m (PO last year)
Austin Rivers 3/$35.5m (PO last year)
Luc Mbah a Moute 2/$4.5m (PO last year)
Marreese Speights 2/$2.9m (PO last year)
Brandon Bass 1/$1,551,659m
Raymond Felton 1/$1,551,659m
Alan Anderson 1/$1,315,448m
Brice Johnson rookie scale
Diamond Stone 2/$1.4m
Clippers killed it on bargain basement vets. Besides GS, no one has done better, and that one is debatable. Speights, Bass, Felton, Anderson! Just an amazing haul. LRMM is a quality defender and can help with all those just a guy minutes Jeff Green left open. A year ago I was arguing that the Clippers should trade Lance for a 2 year contract because there was no way the Clippers would have cap room this past offseason. There was a lot of pushback that maybe everyone opted out, maybe Pierce retired, and maybe somehow they would have 8m in cap room and go that path instead of using Bird Rights and the MLE. As is, they went for a 1 year deal and have nothing to show for it but the lost 1st rounder; however the quality of bench guys they signed would make any cheap deal from last year not matter much.
Now... roughly 95m over 3 years to Crawford, Wes Johnson, and Austin Rivers? That is ugly poor management. I'm actually okay with Crawford signing as he does something (score) and the third year is mostly unguaranteed. Rivers is hellaciously overpaid, and when the best case description of him is a negative offensively and possibly not a negative defensively you just cannot pay him that much. Add in being the coach/gm's son, and having failed to be worth on the court time anywhere else and you have a contract that screams nepotism and incompetence.
As for Wes Johnson, I asked this elsewhere:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnswe01.html
Anyone look at his last 3 years of raw stats and see a guy who should have his RPM go like this:
2014: -4.37
2015: -0.80
2016: +0.93
His raw on offs are:
2014: -4.0
2015: 0
2016: -3.5
But he went from being a net negative on a horrible team to neutral on a horrible team to net negative on a good team. So, the RPM goes from massively negative to top 20 in the league at his position. Am I missing some Wes Johnson intangibles rapid development and then some to justify that magnitude of a change, or is this just a case of RPM being RPM-esque screwy? Someone feel free to convince me that Wes is an entirely different player now.
Combined with Aldrich, and the Clippers are a great argument for that RPM is giving out some really whacky readings which have a lot more to do with the lineups and team use of a player than the actual players.
Would the Clippers be worse than the -3.5 if they had Michael Gbinije as a poor man's Wes Johnson instead of Wes Johnson? Maybe, but not by much imo.
This is a contract that the creators of RPM might hail as one of the best deal's out there -- http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17259662/best-nba-free-agency-deals-2016-offseason (insider) -- but based off his RPM 2 years ago (when he was a very similar if not identical player) would have been one of the worst deals in the league.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
SG: J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson, Alan Anderson
PF: Blake Griffin, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Brice Johnson
C: DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights, Diamond Stone
I expect to hear some how Rivers should be backup pg instead of third string sg, but I'm keeping the bbinsiders depth chart anyway.
Needs: LRMM hitting the open corner 3 would be a thing of beauty for this team. It would make them deadly. Besides that, health.
Additional Thoughts: This is a really tough offseason to grade. The short term it is really really good off the cheap 1 year vets. But those are all short term, while in the long run they managed to over spend and not impress me with their draft. It would not surprise me if we both look at this offseason in May and think it was brilliant and in 2 years look back at this offseason as a giant series of mistakes.
Projected Win/Loss: 60-22 I had this at 58 earlier, and have been debating the 58-62 range all day. I finally went to an even 60, and I might revise this up when I tally up all my predictions. I'm bullish on the Clippers this season.
Off-Season Grade: B (Short term an A/A- and long term a D)
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Cole Aldrich
Losses:
Pablo Prigioni
CJ Wilcox
Jeff Ayres
Branden Dawson
Paul Pierce
Jeff Green
I didn't' think Pierce or Green were key losses. Pierce was mostly awful on court and Green just isn't good in general.
Draft:
#25 Brice Johnson
#39 David Michineau
#40 Diamond Stone
Trades:
Cheick Diallo (33rd) to New Orleans Pelicans for the rights to David Michineau (39th) and Diamond Stone (40th).
C.J. Wilcox and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Devyn Marble and a Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2020 second-rounder.
Free Agency:
Jamal Crawford 3/$42 m (30.5m gtd)
Wesley Johnson 3/$17.6m (PO last year)
Luc Mbah a Moute 2/$4.5m (PO last year)
Austin Rivers 3/$35.5m (PO last year)
Marreese Speights 2/$2.9m (PO last year)
Brandon Bass 1/$1,551,659m
Raymond Felton 1/$1,551,659m
Alan Anderson 1/$1,315,448m
Brice Johnson rookie scale
Diamond Stone 2/$1.4m
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
SG: J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson, Alan Anderson
PF: Blake Griffin, Brandon Bass, Paul Pierce, Brice Johnson
C: DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights, Diamond Stone
Needs:
An upgrade at 3 would be nice, an some depth pretty much all around, especially at PG and PF.
Additional Thoughts:
I kind of think they make a leap this year, they didn't do much but have had injury problems the last few years. I've voted them 2nd in the west but here have them 3rd, could see either but I think they end up in the WCF this season. I can't grade them terribly well because they really didn't do much, but most of it was good. The Crawford and Rivers contracts drag the grade down but the rest was solid to above average, I'm pretty high on them.
Projected Win/Loss:
55-27
Off-Season Grade: C+
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Cole Aldrich
Jeff Green
Cole Aldrich is actually going to be a decent loss for them. Picking up Speights helps, but he's reeeaaaalllly not a good defender. Aldrich is decent, and he gives you enough offensive game when he's on the floor.
Green is not going to light the world on fire, but he's a competent wing on a team that's lacking them.
Losses:
Pablo Prigioni
CJ Wilcox
Jeff Ayres
Branden Dawson
Paul Pierce
None of these guys are difference-makers at this point.
Draft:
#25 Brice Johnson
#39 David Michineau
#40 Diamond Stone
I'd agree with HW here that outside of Stone, the draft doesn't seem to make a ton of sense. But it's the Clippers—it's not like they're going to use their young guys anyway.
Trades:
Cheick Diallo (33rd) to New Orleans Pelicans for the rights to David Michineau (39th) and Diamond Stone (40th).
C.J. Wilcox and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Devyn Marble and a Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2020 second-rounder.
1st is fine, though if it were me I'd have held onto the pick and taken another guy (McCaw?)
2nd trade is...ehhhhhhh. It's fine I guess. Using the cash seems like a bit of a waste to me.
Free Agency:
Jamal Crawford 3/$42 m (30.5m gtd)
Wesley Johnson 3/$17.6m (PO last year)
Austin Rivers 3/$35.5m (PO last year)
Luc Mbah a Moute 2/$4.5m (PO last year)
Marreese Speights 2/$2.9m (PO last year)
Brandon Bass 1/$1,551,659m
Raymond Felton 1/$1,551,659m
Alan Anderson 1/$1,315,448m
Brice Johnson rookie scale
Diamond Stone 2/$1.4m
Bad first: Crawford, Rivers, and Johnson are horrendously overpaid. Craw can score at least, but Wes is a pretty average to below-average swingman and Rivers is...Rivers. Yes, he's a decent enough defender. Streaky is the nice way to describe his impact on the offensive end, though.
There's no way to justify any of those 3 contracts IMO. Who are you bidding against for Austin, Doc? Fenerbahce? Guangdong?
On the plus side, Mbah a Moute, Speights, Bass, Felton, and Anderson are all excellent value signings. Solid vets.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
SG: J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson, Alan Anderson
PF: Blake Griffin, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Brice Johnson
C: DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights, Diamond Stone
This actually isn't a bad depth chart for their cap situation.
Needs: Stay healthy. Don't get snakebit in the playoffs. Mbah a Moute needs to hit the 3. Speights needs to prove he's capable of producing when given a slightly longer leash.
Additional Thoughts: I like the value signings, but I HATE that Doc handcuffed them to Jamal, Wes and Austin and sacrificed any hope of not being capped out forever—at least, unless one of Blake or CP3 walks next year.
It's a good team. Is it good enough to finally get over the hump? IDK.
Projected Win/Loss: 62 wins
Off-Season Grade: B-
I would go higher, but their cap is a real problem.
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Losses:
Cole Aldrich
Paul Pierce
Jeff Green
Pablo Prigioni
CJ Wilcox
Jeff Ayres
Branden Dawson
Outside their starting 4, no one was really vital to this team and Pierce was not the answer at SF. Jeff Green had a real chance to make a home here backing up both the 3 and 4 spots but add this to the list of teams he has disappointed in his career. Aldrich easily outplayed his minimum deal last season but I feel they upgraded with the Brandon Bass acquisition.
Draft:
#25 Brice Johnson
#39 David Michineau
#40 Diamond Stone
I liked Johnson at the NCAA level and he had a nice tourney but his lack of strength or prototypical size will hold him back from being effective in the same manner as he did in college on both ends of the floor. Still he is a very fluid athlete who can look good on offense if he gains any minutes alongside Chris Paul or just affect games in spot minutes by being aggressive on the boards.
Stone stands to lose some weight to get in NBA shape but he's still too raw to receive any game time from Rivers, not to mention DeAndre is very durable so they might just go with a 4 big rotation with Speights and Bass backing up Jordan and Griffin.
Trades:
Cheick Diallo (33rd) to New Orleans Pelicans for the rights to David Michineau (39th) and Diamond Stone (40th).
C.J. Wilcox and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Devyn Marble and a Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2020 second-rounder.
The Diallo trade makes little sense, especially because I thought they should have picked Demetrius Jackson at that spot who could have made a real difference to their second unit with his athleticism and speed. I have a hard time imagining Doc Rivers scouted an obscure French dude like Michineau well enough to make this trade.
Free Agency:
Jamal Crawford 3/$42 m (30.5m gtd)
Wesley Johnson 3/$17.6m (PO last year)
Luc Mbah a Moute 2/$4.5m (PO last year)
Austin Rivers 3/$35.5m (PO last year)
Marreese Speights 2/$2.9m (PO last year)
Brandon Bass 1/$1,551,659m
Raymond Felton 1/$1,551,659m
Alan Anderson 1/$1,315,448m
Brice Johnson rookie scale
Diamond Stone 2/$1.4m
There wasn't much room for the Clippers to do anything radical unless they were looking to break up the main core, which they still may do leading up the trade deadline so the acquisitions of Mbah a Moute, Speights, Bass and Felton for what they paid was good. Bass especially will be a very steady presence with a blue collar work ethic and professionalism.
You just know Rivers Jr and Crawford were going to get paid so there's no point analyzing them although neither player will particularly help improve their perimeter defense.
Somehow Wes Johnson also got more than a minimum deal doing nothing more than he has usually done in his career, which is being firmly below average.
These last three deals are just short sighted considering the summer they have coming up after this season (more on this later).
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
SG: J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson, Alan Anderson
PF: Blake Griffin, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Brice Johnson
C: DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights, Diamond Stone
Needs:
1. Good health for Griffin and Paul
2. A new GM who will firmly relegate Rivers to coaching.
Additional Thoughts:
This is a crucial year for the Clippers, considering that both Blake and Chris Paul can/will very likely opt out and even if they were to both return, they will sign big deals under the new salary cap making their already minute ability to make additions even harder to do next summer, not to mention Redick is a free agent who will also like to get paid.
I think they have to find a trade for Blake Griffin as he is likely the one to net the highest return and they can fill the PF spot quite easily while adding a plus defender at the SF spot (you know what I'm doing here) and may be wriggle out a pick or three in the process. The offense seems to hum along quite nicely around the CP3-DeAndre pick and roll, so they have to upgrade swingman defense to give themselves a genuine chance of making the finals and more.
As it stands there isn't anything particular different or exciting about them this season as compared to the past three. This is the same team albeit a year older, their issues will not get resolved with what is largely an unchanged roster, so the best they can do is hope for an untimely injury (or may be it might take two) to someone key on Golden State so they can have a chance at a finals appearance, which they probably deserve just for their sheer talent.
Right now I have them as my second seed in the West and the third best team in the league owing mainly to the synergy of Jordan/Griffin/Redick/Paul and the Spurs/OKC not having the best off-seasons.
In the end, this is what you get with Doc Rivers, unimaginative and afraid to take a chance to go a tier higher and perfectly content to maintain the status quo.
Projected Win/Loss: 59-23, WC Finals
Off-Season Grade: B-
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