HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Gerald Henderson
Chris Kaman
Brian Roberts
Cliff Alexander
I have no idea why they guaranteed Kaman's contract last year. It was such a puzzling move.
Cliff Alexander was a super highly touted kid out of high school, fell undrafted and was signed to be Portland's stab at developing a cheap Hinkie special type. As with most guys signed that way, it looks to not have panned out. Whenever people on teh General Board ask why Philly didn't find more undrafted talent, I'm amazed at the perspective -- as if there is a giant pool of it and it is just waiting for someone to try versus even if the best scouting a crapshoot that takes serious volume (or luck) to show results. Alexander may have not worked out, but he was the type of gamble I love seeing a team take versus having a 40 year old Tony Battie clogging that last slot; or a clearly over the hill paid 5m a year Chris Kaman. So, I want to just say great move on trying him out even if it didn't stick.
Roberts plays into the backup pg weakness, but it would be weak with him also.
Henderson? I'm pretty okay with him on Philly at only 1 year guaranteed, but he was expendable and then some on Portland.
Altogether it is pretty much the definition of no key loses.
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
Who? Okay, well he shoots well. I think I would have drafted for a backup pg just because at that point in the draft I see no clear talent winners and the backup pg spot is tough. That said, Cat Barber and GPII both went undrafted and each would have been in the running for a pg pick at #47, so hard to fault not taking guys that became free agents.
Petr Cornelie would have been an interesting stash I suppose as well.
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
A legit future 2nd and cash for a 2nd is a tough sell for me when the 2nd bought is all the way down to #47 and the talent pool looks deplete at that time, but if the cash is very low it makes sense. Still, I'm not sold on this trade for Layman. I'm fine paying cash for Napier, even if he was available with cash just a year ago.
Combined, Portland paid clearly more for Layman and Napier than Washington did for Trey Burke, although on the flip side, Portland didn't end up with Trey Burke.
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
Evan Turner 4/$70m
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
I loved the Crabbe match, not doing this would have been bad news. The one thing I will say is given he got 4 years and 18m a year or so, could Portland have just offered that to him straight up and not had the player option on the last year? I love the Ezeli spin of the health wheel. Great move with little downside. Locking up McCollum now makes sense. And Meyers Leonard at only 10.25m a year is a fine deal.
But Harkless feels overpaid. I think I would have rather seen him come back on a 1 year 9m deal and Portland risk losing him for nothing in a year than tying up more long term money. Or alternatively, Harkless is fine but you cannot give that contract to Evan Turner. Mostly cause you cannot. I like Turner, he is a real interesting player, but giving him 70m feels incredibly dumb and an overpay and then some. I'm not convinced that anyone else was getting close to that number (maybe NOP?)
What else should they have done with that money? Turner's first year salary is $16,393,443Spoiler:
So, back to the question, what if not Turner?
The alternatives would have been to bring in 2 players fitting above, or just one straight 28 mpg sf with McCollum helping the backup pg minutes again.
Galloway (6m) and Dudley (10m)? Gives a younger guy to grow with the core in Galloway and a savvy vet to hold it all together in Dudley. Dudley has been moving to a stretch 4 versus a straight sf, but I think it still makes some sense. That is my best case scenario I think. Joe Johnson could give the sf minutes as well.
Turner makes more sense than Solomon Hill at his number, and I'm not a fan of paying Wes Johnson more than 6m a year to lure him to be a random sf for Portland. Afflalo had his shot in Portland. Courtney Lee isn't quite what you want as a fit, and doesn't have the upside.
Listen, I hate Turner the contract. It isn't right in the sense of his market value. But the fit actually looks pretty solid across the board. He will play sf (and I have heard he thinks he is starting there so the BB insider depth chart makes sense) and he will be able to combine with a Turner/McCollum/Crabbe lineup where you can pick the ball handler depending on who is guarding whom.
(I do think center is still weak, but adding someone like Cole would have just added another mediocre guy as depth versus 1 legit top 10 starter)
Needs: Chemistry to stay attuned, defense to sync on the perimeter, and big men to step it up, either through growth (Vonleh) or health (Ezeli)
Additional Thoughts: I rambled. If Turner doesn't jell -- and he has a strong personality by most accounts -- that contract is suddenly very frightening. Like Toronto Landry Fields x3.
I try and throw out a trade in most of these so here goes: Harkless and Plumlee for Gortat and Oubre Portland gets a better starting center and a prospect, Washington gets more 3/4 depth and a younger/cheaper center to back up Manhimi after everyone is trade eligible.
Projected Win/Loss: 44-38 Same as last year.
Off-Season Grade: B+ I really talked myself into it, to the point that an A- is on the table. But for a full A letter grade I think they needed to get a bigger building block than Turner and maintain. Whiteside would have been interesting.
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Gerald Henderson
Chris Kaman
Brian Roberts
Cliff Alexander
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
Evan Turner 4/$70m
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
Liked extending McCollum,it was happening either way and showing good faith in a rising star is a good team building move. Leonard is fine too, then we get ugly. I understand tey had success last year but re-signing everyone to expensive deals and paying Turner that much money without getting a better big man makes zero sense to me. They ran it back but more expensive without really addressing the biggest need. It could really limit flexibility and I think they undid a lot of the good done last year. Even losing LMA last year I thought they were a C or C+ at least last offseason, but not this year. Sometimes its not about results but process, and I think here the process isn't good.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Damian Lillard, Shabazz Napier, Tim Quarterman
SG: C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe
SF: Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, Pat Connaughton, Luis Montero, Jake Layman
PF: Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis
C: Mason Plumlee, Festus Ezeli, Noah Vonleh
Needs:
A better center and I still don't trust Turner that much.
Projected Win/Loss: 44-38
Off-Season Grade: Dumars
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Gerald Henderson
I have this under key losses because he's one of the better defensive guards on the team. Sure, he was going to get paid a little, but I probably would have saved a bit of the Turner money and put it towards him. But we'll get to that!
Losses:
Chris Kaman
Brian Roberts
Cliff Alexander
None of these are huge losses. Alexander was a nice prospect for the end of the roster, but not one that panned out.
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
Yeah, there were a couple of guys I would have taken at this point over Layman. GPII in particular (I love his game). It's the 2nd round, though—kind of a crapshoot when you get this far in.
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
I'm OK with both. Not convinced Napier is even worth the cash, but eh. If that's all it takes you're fine.
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
Evan Turner 4/$70m
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
The fit here is good for these pieces. McCollum and Crabbe are no-brainers to match, and I think Meyers is probably worth paying. I HATE the Turner contract, though, and don't really like the Harkless one.
Turner's a good fit with the team—he provides a little defense, a little ballhandling, a little of everything except scoring. But was somebody really going to pay him 70 million dollars to do that? Got to think Olshey was kind of negotiating against himself here.
Harkless at the moment is still a work in progress. If he develops a shot, he's worth the money. If he doesn't, he probably isn't. I'm not convinced he does.
I really like bringing in Ezeli, though he does seem to occasionally have BBIQ problems and he's not the most durable big man in the world. But he's a really solid rim protector.
Needs: Defense, chemistry and growth out of younger players.
This is a pretty solid team on paper. There's a lot of versatility here, and your stars are locked up long-term. I have pretty good confidence that the team will come together well. We'll see how we go, though.
Leonard, Crabbe, Harkless, Vonleh, and Ezeli are younger players that need to continue to improve. Vonleh in particular. If they do, Portland's set up reasonably well, though it's likely operating pretty close to the salary cap for a mid-playoffs team.
Defense needs to take a step forward. I think it can, especially with someone not Charmin-soft manning the center.
Additional Thoughts:
This is gonna be a top League Pass team for me.
Projected Win/Loss: 48 wins
Off-Season Grade: B+
Turner and Harkless push this down a bit for me long-term, because I think they paid them a little too much to maintain long-term flexibility. But the team is solid now, though not stocked with big names.
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Key Losses:
-
Losses:
Gerald Henderson
Chris Kaman
Brian Roberts
Cliff Alexander
No key losses here and Henderson was the odd man out with money being invested in Crabbe, McCollum and Turner. I look forward to Kaman dedicating himself to his new reality show fishing off the coast of Mexico without so much as getting a tan line, killing wild boar or whatever else he likes to do in his spare time.
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
Layman is a pretty good punt if he works out as a big 3&D SF for them but if he has to play stretch 4, there is already a horrible minutes crunch with Aminu and Leonard around. They also need to give Vonleh some gametime or else risk seeing his value erode.
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
Evan Turner 4/$70m
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
Olshey has been my second favorite GM after Presti over the past few seasons and looks like he has decided to establish Portland in the upper tier of the West with the idea that good players on reasonable contracts are more valuable than cap room, especially when it is becoming extremely hard to entice players to switch teams. So this free agency makes a degree of sense after pursuing and getting spurned by Whiteside.
The Good:
While the CJ extension looks pricey, it is still excellent business for a player who is just beginning to hit his stride and retains good trade value. I'd have expected Meyers Leonard to receive a bigger offer sheet after he was reported to have passed on a 4 year/$65+ mil extension a season before so signing him to a 4 year deal at a cheaper price point is even better business.
Nice risk free punt on Ezeli and if he can prove to be injury free, it makes it easier to trade Plumlee before he hits restricted free agency, which is inevitable because the Blazers absolutely cannot afford to pay him.
The Bad:
The Evan Turner deal makes little sense to me even if the market for wings is extremely small. He is a player that functions well with the ball in his hands and the Blazers have two very capable ball handlers in the first unit so they could have looked to secure a more defensive minded SF but may be the plan is to stagger his minutes and run him as the primary ball handler for the second unit as Napier doesn't exactly instill confidence.
Still this deal is going to be hard to move and has massive luxury tax implications as soon as next season. It is further compounded by them matching Crabbe's offer sheet from the Nets. In a vacuum, matching Crabbe is slightly out of the comfort zone for a team like the Blazers as he might be more valuable to a team like the Nets but it becomes very questionable when the payroll is so high.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Damian Lillard, Shabazz Napier, Tim Quarterman
SG: C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe
SF: Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, Pat Connaughton, Luis Montero, Jake Layman
PF: Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis
C: Mason Plumlee, Festus Ezeli, Noah Vonleh
Love the cheap big man depth, the coach is extremely flexible and tinkers well so the offense will be exciting to watch but the perimeter defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Needs:
1. Aminu to play a full season as a viable stretch 4 to prove that the surprising late season surge in that position wasn't a fluke.
2. Find a good wing defender out of the plethora of wings on the roster looking for a try out at SF.
Additional Thoughts:
Even if their owner has deep pockets, its hard to justify a $120+ million payroll next season for a team with the WCSFs as their ceiling. That's the kind of money owners like to shell out gritting their teeth to keep together a contender going for a repeat and this team doesn't have that kind of upside.
Quality depth is well and good to secure a pretty regular season record but playoffs are decided by 8 man rotations and their top 8 isn't better than 5th in the West.
If the plan is to deal some of the value contracts, we've already seen that NBA teams rarely like to trade a whole dollar for four quarters so it will be interesting to see how Olshey goes from here.
Projected Win/Loss: 51-31, a tough first round series that could go either way
Off-Season Grade: B
DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Key Losses:
- Future flexibility: Blazers spent a ton this offseason, should be well into the luxury tax next season, limited their flexibility.
Losses:
Gerald Henderson
- Probably the most significant player loss. He is surprisingly athletic and a good midrange game, plus fit the lockerroom very well. Turner should replace much of what he did, but he was good for us. Much better than Afflalo ever was.
Chris Kaman
- Don't know why we guaranteed him $5 million last season either. He was our only post player, and apparently a good mentor, but this is no big loss
Brian Roberts
- Meh, backup PG who didn't ever do much
Cliff Alexander
- Took a flier on the guy, he never really broke into the rotation despite us needing a physical big.
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
- I hated this pick. He wasn't on my radar at all (maybe I overrate assist rates though, but that and thinking his defense is not as good as advertised took him out of my interest entirely). Cornelie was a guy I had interest in, and I also would have rather had Bentil, Payton or Felder. Really my targets went a little higher and I wish we could have moved up a little higher for one of Diallo, Brogdon or McCaw. Zubac too, but I had him as a 1st rounder. My other 2ed round targets went much higher (really wanted Papagiannis).
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
- As I said, I didn't like the pick. I would happily do a future 2ed and cash for a guy I really believed in, but I don't with Layman.
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
- Another meh backup point guard. Too many other cheap and more experienced PGs.
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
- Its a lot of money, but we kind of had to do it. Its nice that its not tied to the salary cap, whereas someone probably would have offered him a full max next summer. He should continue to maintain value as a legit 2ed option, so this was a good move to lock him up early.
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
- Our worst move of the off-season IMO. I was ready to say good-bye to Allen at anything over ~14 per year. I think he's 1 dimensional, with overrated defense and inconsistent shooting. He can make a difference in short periods, but gets exposed in longer shifts. A lot of other people seem higher on him and he's a fine prototypical 3&D player but he's not a difference maker IMO.
Evan Turner 4/$70m
- I thought this was a good move. Excuse my little rant here, but there are so many people saying Olshey negotiated against himself and outbid the market for him. I think thats a load of hogwash. I mean, its one thing to say if you know that Turner was only getting offers around $8 million and Olshey doubled that for no reason, but if you are just saying it because the number surprised you - with no idea what the actual market was - then you are basically hating on Olshey out of ignorance. Do you really think the guy doesn't know how to do his job? Isn't it pretty likely, with all the money going around this summer, that some other team was offering ~14-15 million and Portland had to ante up to overcome our West coast, small city, weather and tax disadvantages? To me, that makes more sense than Olshey threw a random high number that was no-where close to any of the other offers. Again, if someone has inside info stating otherwise, that is a different story, but if you dont then give the guy some credit before slandering him.
Ok, that rant over, it is a very different thing to say that Turner was overpaid and may not live up to his contract. That could be. However, I think Turner is going to be a fantastic fit in Portland. Both McCollum and Lillard have been better scorers when playing with a PG next to them. I have long been advocating that Portland needs a point-forward to make that back-court work because they are such phenomenal scorers and mediocre facilitators that they need a guy like Turner/Batum/Evans/Iggy (LeBron would work too) to let them do what they do best. Some of the worst parts of our offense last year was when one of Lillard/McCollum were on the court and teams would just shut them down - no one else could do anything with the ball to prevent that kind of defense. With the ball in Turners hand and one of Lillard/McCollum freely running around the court, no one is going to focus on shutting down the ball-handler, which will open up a ton of options on offense. With a passing and movement-oriented offense, this will be a good thing.
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
- I thought this was a pretty decent contract as well. Harkless is such a good defender, with elite athleticism, size and length. People don't seem to realize, there was a reason he ended the season starting for us, and its because he earned it. He's also a really good slasher, putting his athleticism to use and finishing in the paint. I would want to pair him with a shooting coach all summer long because he's not entirely hopeless but he is really bad from range. And that FT% really does need to come up, he certainly has the skills to do that. IMO this is the Blazers best chance for a breakout player ala Jimmy Butler (I see some similarities) in which case this contract becomes a steal but even if Harkless plateaus its not a terrible contract for a guy who can start and do just fine.
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
- Meh, I didn't really like this but its not a terrible contract I suppose. Leonard is such a mix of intriguing skills and infuriating actions though. He has an elite shot, tons of range, good touch around the basket. He's got a good frame, strong. He doesn't have great foot-speed, but has pretty good straight-line speed running the court. Definitely shouldn't be used as a PF on defense, but he's good athletically for a center. He also has the ability to make some amazing passes, half-court bullets right to their mark but he so often does them at the wrong time. This kind of defines him as a player, he has so many tools and no idea how or when to best use them. Makes some of the most boneheaded mistakes on the court. It could be a lack of experience, it could be slow reaction times, it could just be a poor BBIQ (likely some combo of the 3) but whatever it is, it hasn't really improved since getting drafted.
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
- On the surface this seems like a great contract, but it really makes you wonder how bad his health must be. This is a terrible contract for a player, its about the same salary as Cole Adrich but much less leverage and guaranteed money. I think there is something we fans don't know about that really scared off teams. People saying he should fire his agent are being silly for the same reasons as people saying Olshey outbid the market - basically they know more than we do and its ridiculous to first assume they just messed up without knowing all the facts.
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
- Again, didn't really like the draft pick, but the contract isn't terrible if we do believe in him.
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
- I didn't really like or see much from him the few LSU games I caught. The Blazers are at 16 players, so I'm pretty sure he's the guy to go.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Damian Lillard, Shabazz Napier, Tim Quarterman
SG: C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe
SF: Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, Pat Connaughton, Luis Montero, Jake Layman
PF: Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis
C: Mason Plumlee, Festus Ezeli, Noah Vonleh
Depth chart
Well Portland has gone all in on versatile players and Stotts tweaks his rotations based on match-ups, so the classic depth chart wont really capture the projected lineups.
-McCollum and Turner will probably share backup PG duties when Lillard is off the floor, so Napier is mostly going to be reserved for garbage time. Heck, there will probably be significant time that Lillard gets off ball as well, as his scoring numbers have always been more impressive with a pass-first player playing PG beside him.
- Connaughton, Montero and Quarterman are really more of SGs in my opinion. One of the 3 will be let go.
- Leonard did not do well at PF last year, he seems pretty niche as a stretch 5. Additionally, in Stotts offense, Davis is often a 5 as well. Vonleh is more of a PF than either of them.
So I would propose something like:
PG: Lillard, McCollum/Turner, Napier
SG: McCollum, Crabbe/Lillard, Connaughton/Montero/Quarterman
SF: Turner, Aminu/Harkless, Crabbe/Layman
PF: Aminu, Davis/Vonleh, Leonard/Layman
C: Plumlee, Ezeli/Leonard, Davis
Needs:
Right now the Blazers are pretty full up at each position. I can see some moves to further round us out, but each of them would require a follow-up move to balance us out. I'm going to separate this out into a star need and a role need.
- Our biggest star need is from the forward positions. I think they are OK right now with how the roster is set up, as Turner can create for others and Aminu/Harkless are good finishers, but we have no one to really create for themselves. I think the decent scorers like this are highly coveted and mediocre scorers from this position do more harm than good. So while the Blazers have a fine assortment of role players at this position, if I had my wish of trading for any star to pair with our back-court, I would want a forward most of all. Kevin Love may be the best fit at an attainable price.
- I think the biggest role player need right now is front-court offense, especially from the post, simply because we have no one who can respectfully fill that role. That was Kaman's only job last year, and while we only needed him sparingly and he was overall rather disappointing, we now have no one to throw into that role. I would strongly consider moving Crabbe for someone like Kanter or Monroe, but this would end up stacking the front-court and creating a hole at the guard positions (I don't believe any of Connaughton/Montero/Quarterman are ready for significant minutes).
- There is some debate about whether the back-up PG position is another position of need for a role player better than Napier. Personally, I don't think a team can have too many PGs, simply because a competent PG is too important to running a team and with so many, there is no excuse not to have an extra. I would love a veteran pass-first player with decent defense, particularly someone who knows how to feed big men (Lillard and McCollum are a little weak on this). With Lillard/McCollum/Turner all likely to see minutes though, this veteran would have to be OK with inconsistent minutes.
Additional Thoughts:
Blazers spent so much money this summer. I think we will just barely avoid the luxury tax this year although its possible a bonus or something will push us over. Next summer will hurt though with McCollums near-max deal kicking in, so we should be looking at ways to cut salary. Also I always want to get lightly protected future picks from dysfunctional teams, but there's only 1 Billy King. Overall, we should be debating sacrificing some depth to get cheaper future assets.
Projected Win/Loss:
I think people are slightly sleeping on the Blazers. We have great chemistry and a fantastic coach. The West is a little stronger, but I think Portand will be competitive in the RS with ~48 wins.
Off-Season Grade:
B
I think it was a pretty average off-season. I initially had them at a C+ but I think they set themselves up well for the future and committed to a direction, which is a good thing for a franchise. I don't see any home-run moves, we basically held serve relying on incremental internal improvements. Turner is our big addition and I think he'll fit in nicely (again, getting Lillard and McCollum into more of a scoring, less of a facilitating role should be a good thing) but we paid a significant price for that, so it kind of balances out to average. Crabbe is the contract I'm really unhappy about, Leonard as well. Harkless is a fine deal IMO, but probably wont turn into a steal over-night ala Aminu/Davis last summer. I do like that we have set ourselves up to be young and dynamic, which helps balance out the massive amount of money spent, as its truly an investment in the future.
