Minnesota Offseason ReviewHartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Kevin Garnett ?
I haven't seen any conclusive news yet on if he is retiring or playing, which suggests that any contribution might be small enough that he can be in this category even if on the roster taking a victory lap and playing very minimally.
Losses:
Sam Mitchell (Head Coach)
Milt Newton (interim GM)
Damjan Rudez
Tayshaun Prince
Greg Smith
Trading Budinger for Rudez was such a smart little trade that shaved money and didn't hurt output. Now losing him or Prince or Smith doesn't matter at all. And Sam Mitchell being replaced is good news.
Draft:
#5 Kris Dunn
They took the guy a lot of teams had third, and got him at 5th. They backstopped Rubio, while not addressing the shooting needs of the team. I might have been tempted to go Murray and have him able to play off Rubio and also at backup pg next to LaVine. That might be because I'm not 100% sold that Dunn is as much the standout 3rd best prospect in the draft as some were, being older and further along the development curve helps a lot. Bender would have been fascinating if he were still around to see what Minnesota would have done. But Dunn is a top level guy and one ready to play now, making the Rubio trade watch all the more interesting.
Trades:
none
Free Agency:
Tom Thibodeau (Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations )
Scott Layden (general manager)
Cole Aldrich 3/$21.9m (Declining and 2m gtd in year 3)
Jordan Hill 2/$8.2m (2nd year ungtd)
Brandon Rush 1/$3.5m
Kris Dunn rookie scale
John Lucas III and Toure' Murry full unguaranteed 1 year deals
I'm happy to see Thibs here. They needed the coaching upgrade almost more than anything this offseason, and getting someone to teach defense to Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Shabazz etc was bordering on essential. And for that they probably got the best guy out there.
The big worry when he got the job was (overworking the kids) and how a Head Coaches with ultimate authority works out when we have no basis for judging Thibs personnel choices. Too often they compromise the future for the now, and overvalue the things that make a coaches job easier while undervaluing the assets that GM's try to worry about. So, you get a bunch of fit over upside choices, win now trades that don't move the needle enough to justify the future assets given up, and questionable personnel decisions favoring hard working declining vets. With less than one offseason in the book, I'm a lot less worried about him as a GM than I was before.
Aldrich was a steal, I really like the pickup. Rush makes sense as a placeholder. Hill does too. Minnesota didn't overspend, kept flexibility open and got at least one guy who could be a nice cog going forward
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn, Tyus Jones, John Lucas
SG: Zach LaVine, Brandon Rush, Toure' Murry
SF: Andrew Wiggins, Shabazz Muhammad
PF: Gorgui Dieng, Nemanja Bjelica, Adreian Payne, Kevin Garnett(?)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns, Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill, Nikola Pekovic (?)
Should be interesting to see what Pekovic can do this year, if anything. Also, I look forward to the debates over if Dieng or KAT is playing center, and whether KAT should play which long term.
Needs:
Outside shooting. Perimeter defense. Interior defense. BBref had Minnesota 28th in defensive rating, while NBA.com had them instead a glowing 27th. Probably not the place for it, but the inconsistency across sites in measuring a possession is so frustrating from a stats perspective. Minnesota was 28th in opponent fg% in general and 28th in opponent fg% within 5 feet of the rim, the interior defense really was just as bad as the perimeter defense.
LaVine is a seize and then some. Wiggins just isn't a plus defender. Dieng is not a rim protector and needs to learn how to be one, if it is not too late on that cause. Shabazz isn't a defender either. Honestly, right now Minnesota has one prospect who isn't bad at defense and has played in the NBA in KAT, and hopefully Dunn joins that list.
Can Wiggins, LaVine and Dieng become much better defenders? It is Minnesota's biggest need (I'm not listing Shabazz but if he can break through he joins that list). Besides that making sure the lineup has enough shooting is still a concern, but that comes third after defense and defense.
Additional Thoughts:
There were like a few years of Rubio trade noises, then a few years of no Rubio trade noises and now it is back. If this lasts years I'm asking for my money back. I'm already bored of the topic. Fatigued.
Minnesota was 23rd in rebounding, and that number went down when Dieng was on the court. Along with his negative rim defense numbers and the fact that he will turn 27 this year and then hit free agency, I think it might be time to sell high on him. After all someone will look at him and see a guy who in just his third year averaged 10/7 on 60% TS% and not see the weaknesses that worry me.
Projected Win/Loss: 37-45
Off-Season Grade: A- This might be stingy. But they basically drafted bpa, hired bca and then signed Cole Aldrich and filler. I want at least 1 more move before I go a full A. I could probably get talked into an A if they did Payne for a TPE even. It just wasn't active enough to get there for me, and I do think they could use a trade or two.
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Kevin Garnett ?
Losses:
Sam Mitchell (Head Coach)
Milt Newton (interim GM)
Damjan Rudez
Tayshaun Prince
Greg Smith
Draft:
#5 Kris Dunn
Trades:
Free Agency:
Tom Thibodeau (Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations )
Scott Layden (general manager)
Cole Aldrich 3/$21.9m (Declining and 2m gtd in year 3)
Jordan Hill 2/$8.2m (2nd year ungtd)
Brandon Rush 1/$3.5m
Kris Dunn rookie scale
John Lucas III and Toure' Murry full unguaranteed 1 year deals
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn, Tyus Jones, John Lucas
SG: Zach LaVine, Brandon Rush, Toure' Murry
SF: Andrew Wiggins, Shabazz Muhammad
PF: Karl-Anthony Towns, Nemanja Bjelica, Kevin Garnett, Adreian Payne
C: Gorgui Dieng, Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill, Nikola Pekovic
Needs:
Shooting, internal improvement, Thibs to reach the young guys
Additional Thoughts:
Really liked everything they did. Alrich's deal was solid, same for Hill, Dunn was a great value pick. I could see a Rubio trade but not for sure at this point, either way wouldn't shock me though for now I think its unlikely unless they really love Dunn as the PG. I still have questions with the new front office until they're more proven, but for now I don't have anything to doubt. Still think a year or so away from the playoffs but I think a decent jump in wins is quite possible.
Projected Win/Loss: 38-44
Off-Season Grade: A-
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Kevin Garnett (?)
He's been a useful mentor for the guys on the team, but his on-the-court value is basically done. Sam mitchell said last year that it was all KG could do to play 15 min a game.
Losses:
Sam Mitchell (Head Coach)
Milt Newton (interim GM)
Damjan Rudez
Tayshaun Prince
Greg Smith
Yeah, this makes the team better all the way across. Think Prince was helpful on the vet leadership side, but eh.
Draft:
#5 Kris Dunn
I love what I've heard of Dunn, and it sounds like MIN management does too.
Trades:
Free Agency:
Tom Thibodeau (Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations )
Scott Layden (general manager)
Cole Aldrich 3/$21.9m (Declining and 2m gtd in year 3)
Jordan Hill 2/$8.2m (2nd year ungtd)
Brandon Rush 1/$3.5m
Kris Dunn rookie scale
John Lucas III and Toure' Murry full unguaranteed 1 year deals
Solid. Rush on a small deal and Aldrich on a medium deal are both good signings, and Hill's useful (especially with the unguaranteed second year).
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn, Tyus Jones, John Lucas
SG: Zach LaVine, Brandon Rush, Toure' Murry
SF: Andrew Wiggins, Shabazz Muhammad
PF: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Garnett, Nemanja Bjelica, Adreian Payne
C: Gorgui Dieng, Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill, Nikola Pekovic
Minnesota (like most teams in the league) could stand to flip some big man depth for wing help. A couple of marginal bigs on this list.
The starting lineup is pretty solid, but the bench will probably give some of those points back.
I think long-term it's in their best interests to have KAT play the 4 with significant time at the 5. It'll probably extend his career. Aldrich allows them to do that in the short-term.
Needs:
Depth. Rush/Hill/Aldrich help, but there's a couple of bigs on the back half of the roster that aren't doing much, and the wings are thin. Also need the young guys to keep growing. Lavine in particular...a lot offensively depends on him. He was really raw coming into the league, and he made me eat crow because I never thought he was going to be good.
Additional Thoughts:
I'd put very good odds on Rubio being traded this season. Maybe this offseason. He's a good player, but if they think Dunn is the PG of the future they might just put the keys in his hands.
Projected Win/Loss: 38 wins
Off-Season Grade: B They addressed their needs somewhat, didn't really have any bad moves, but I don't see any "knock it out of the park" moves.
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Losses:
Sam Mitchell (Head Coach)
Milt Newton (interim GM)
Damjan Rudez
Tayshaun Prince
Greg Smith
Mitchell was no more than a placeholder and happened to be at the right place at the right time considering Fip's untimely demise.
So it was never a surprise to see him go. I had decent hopes for Greg Smith salvaging a career as a back up center while he was in Houston but he hasn't been able to find a niche for himself even as a towel-waver.
Given the relative lack of depth at SF, the cheap option they decline on Rudez seems a bit pointless and he could genuinely help more than someone like Payne or John Lucas if the reason for cutting him was down to roster crunch.
Draft:
#5 Kris Dunn
Love the draft, there's no real reason why Dunn should have fallen beyond Boston at 3 but he did and that is Minnesota's gain. I presume they must have taken calls on him from teams such as Sacramento who are desperate for PG help but I'm glad they held firm and retained him. While he is an older rookie, he basically suffered injury set backs in his first couple college seasons before firmly finding his ground and given his athletic profile combined with basketball instincts, I don't think it will take him too long to dislodge Rubio from the starting line up (I'm a firm Rubio fan by the way).
His ability to generate offense off the dribble combined with tenacity to lock down his man when dialed in will be highly appreciated by Thibodeu and you can often sense a strong coach-PG relationship on successful teams and you might just find it here.
Trades:
Free Agency:
Tom Thibodeau (Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations )
Scott Layden (general manager)
Cole Aldrich 3/$21.9m (Declining and 2m gtd in year 3)
Jordan Hill 2/$8.2m (2nd year ungtd)
Brandon Rush 1/$3.5m
Kris Dunn rookie scale
John Lucas III and Toure' Murry full unguaranteed 1 year deals
Even if I don't totally buy into his psyche, I think Thibodeu is a fine acquisition for them considering the poor quality of coaches and personnel management that has set this franchise back over the past decade.
While giving him personnel control and letting him rule his way over the franchise might not seem the best ideas in the future, he is a strong coach and someone who has spent enough time with USA basketball to pick up on the nuances of handling elite players which might come in handy here if the potential on paper translates to the court.
I still think he needs to reign himself in from pushing his players 100% all the time so that it doesn't lead to over usage and avoid fatigue related injuries that can shorten careers. Here's where a less intense and more pragmatic GM might help, provided its a person who can gain Thibodeu's respect. I don't know much about Scott Layden to say he is that guy.
Aldrich essentially played himself into a nice contract over the past year with the Clippers and considering that Doc Rivers has retained a lot of defensive philosophy instilled by Thibodeu in Boston, the system might not come as a shock to him even if the level of intensity demanded by Thibodeu will.
Jordan Hill and Brandon Rush are good stop gap options to add some roster depth to an otherwise already deep team.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn, Tyus Jones, John Lucas
SG: Zach LaVine, Brandon Rush, Toure' Murry
SF: Andrew Wiggins, Shabazz Muhammad
PF: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Garnett, Nemanja Bjelica, Adreian Payne
C: Gorgui Dieng, Cole Aldrich, Jordan Hill, Nikola Pekovic
Only question here is how long it might take for Dunn to dislodge Rubio from the starting line up.
Needs:
1. Some consistency from Lavine and Muhammad.
2. A starting PF
3. Internal development
Additional Thoughts:
The past three drafts have been especially kind for them and this has turned into an amazing young roster. If they get a good deal of consistency from Lavine and Muhammad at the 2/3 spots, they could be legitimately in the hunt for a playoff spot and if Tyus Jones continues his strong play from the summer league, they might look to see if they can get a good starting SG/PF for Rubio who fits in with their timeline while dumping Pekovic in the process and moving KAT to his natural position at center.
Its a bit hard to give them a stellar rating despite how well the franchise is set up as this has mostly been built on the backs of two #1 picks and they haven't really blown anyone's hats away in free agency or the trade market.
Projected Win/Loss: 38-44
Off-Season Grade: B+
Klomp wrote:Klomp Review
Key Losses:
None
Losses:
Sam Mitchell (interim HC)
Milt Newton (interim GM)
Damjan Rudez
Tayshaun Prince
Greg Smith
Draft:
#5 Kris Dunn
Trades:
None
Free Agency:
Tom Thibodeau (HC/POBO)
Scott Layden (GM)
Cole Aldrich - $7,643,979 / $7,300,000 / $6,956,021 (third year guaranteed $2,056,021)
Jordan Hill - $4,000,000 / $4,180,000 (2nd year unguaranteed)
Brandon Rush - $3,500,000
Kris Dunn - $3,872,520 / $4,046,760 / $4,221,000 / $5,348,007 (last 2 years team options)
John Lucas III and Toure' Murry (summer contracts)
Current Depth Chart:
PG: Ricky Rubio / Kris Dunn / Tyus Jones
SG: Zach LaVine / Brandon Rush
SF: Andrew Wiggins / Shabazz Muhammad
PF: Karl-Anthony Towns / Jordan Hill / Nemanja Bjelica / Kevin Garnett
C: Gorgui Dieng / Cole Aldrich / Adreian Payne / Nikola Pekovic
Needs:
Wing depth
Additional Thoughts:
Compared to a season ago, the 2016-17 Minnesota Timberwolves barely look like the same thing despite returning their entire starting lineup.
The biggest change is at the top, where interim GM Milt Newton and interim HC were replaced by HC and POBO Tom Thibodeau and GM Scott Layden. This is a massive upgrade that cannot be understated. The duo takes over a roster that is led by the last two rookie of the year winners in Andrew Wiggins (2015) and Karl-Anthony Towns. Around them in the starting lineup are solid complementary pieces in Zach LaVine, Gorgui Dieng and Ricky Rubio.
As has been the case every other offseason since his arrival, there were some rumors floating around that Ricky Rubio might be on his way out. This summer, those rumors came on the heels of the team’s drafting of Providence College PG Kris Dunn. Despite the trade rumors, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The word out of Mayo Clinic Square has been consistent: the team isn’t trading Ricky Rubio. As an outsider, the biggest reason for that would seem to be the wide gap between Rubio’s trade value and his actual value on the court. If those two things come closer together, you may see a trade. But the team doesn’t seem interested in selling low on his stock right now.
Outside of the front office, the biggest change to the Timberwolves this summer was the upgrade to the bench lineup. A season ago, Shabazz Muhammad set a Timberwolves single-season record for bench points. However, the collection of talent alongside him when the team went to its reserves was subpar at best. The upgrade started on draft night with the selection of Kris Dunn. He has potential to be the team’s long-term option at the position, but for now will bolster the team’s second unit behind Rubio. After drafting Kris Dunn, the biggest acquisition was to bring home Bloomington native Cole Aldrich, who signed a three-year deal. In the current market, the deal was an absolute bargain. Supplementing those signings were the one-year deals handed out to Brandon Rush and Jordan Hill.
There are still questions over the possible retirement of Kevin Garnett, who has remained quiet for most of the offseason. I believe the team will open the season with him on the roster, but don’t be surprised to only see him play one or two home games so he can be honored by the Minnesota fan base before riding off into retirement. This was actually an option floated to the local media by Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor, which is why I’d consider it a decent possibility. This move also would get Garnett out of the shadows of Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan when the Hall of Fame comes calling in five years, and would probably allow him to enter the Hall with Paul Pierce.
Overall, I am very excited about the offseason the Timberwolves had and the potential this roster has going into the future. Despite my optimism, I remain somewhat guarded with my expectations for the season. This is still an extremely young organization, with its three best players still just 21 years old for a majority of the season. And while Thibodeau is a massive upgrade on the bench, I’m still not convinced that his arrival guarantees immediate success. Look for the franchise to make a considerable jump; just maybe not as big of a jump as some are predicting.
Projected Win/Loss: 41-41
Off-Season Grade: A
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