HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Robin Lopez
Arron Afflalo
Langston Galloway
I feel like Robin Lopez is a big loss. The team was close to 3 points better in net rating with him on the court, he was third in minutes played, second in BPM, had a team high 57.4% TS%, and is a legit center. Whether Noah can compensate for this loss is a huge question, and I'm voting no.Afflalo is not a lock down defender. Afflalo is not a defensive plus. This idea somehow started in Denver and has just stuck on him despite all the evidence to the contrary since then.
With that out of the way, I still said I liked his signing in Sacramento. And I still view it as a key loss. However, I fully expect Lee to make up for it, and fit better.
Langston Galloway probably shouldn't be here. But he logged over 2000 minutes, and that sheer amount of court time needing to be replaced is key. And he was the only young player worth mentioning on Knicks besides Porzingis, so that needs mentioning. Still, he is absolutely just a guy and Brandon Jennings should be a massive upgrade for the times Rose is not getting the minutes.
Losses:
Derrick Williams
Jerian Grant
Jose Calderon
Lou Amundson
Kevin Seraphin
Cleanthony Early
Tony Wroten
Derrick Williams for Evan Turner trades were once the daily fodder of the trade board. And I feel like any discussion of the two as comparative players now might still elicit similar reactions. Turner signed a prove it contract with Boston, and is now being paid handsomely by Portland (perhaps too much so). Williams signed his prove it contract with NYK, and now has a prove it contract with Miami to show for it. So, the free agent market liked Turner a heck of a lot more. Course, given current contracts I would have Williams as more trade value. What does that all have to do with the loss of Williams? Not much. He played a bunch of minutes, put up some good numbers, and seemed replaceable at the same time, just slipping to this category as a result.
As much as I love Jerami Grant's athletic potential, I don't see big upside in Jerian. And Jerami without serious shooting improvements is a very flawed prospect. As is, I don't see much (anything) that separates Jerian from a Phil Pressey, especially when you see that Jerian will be 24 before the season starts. All of which is to say that I am low enough on Jerian as a prospect that I could see some of the undrafted rookie pg's as equal prospects, and thus it is not a key loss, first rounder or not.
Calderon hasn't been good for a while, but is the sort of stabilizing guy that makes sense to have if you are tanking. His ultimate move to LAL makes huge sense.
Admundson I feel like should be somewhere in the league as a 13th man still, but maybe I'm living in the past there. But between him, Seraphin, Early and Wroten, nothing of value was lost.
Draft:
Trades:
Lopez/Grant/Calderon for Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-rounder.
Well then. Let me just switch up slightly what I said for Chicago here, with additions in italics:
The Rose deal was phenomenally bad. 34% of trade boarders voted Chicago won it, and another 17% voted "There is no way Rose has this much value, what are you thinking Phil????" I think it would have been more, but another 10% of us had to vote "I'm just too excited that Chuck has to eat crow on Rose's value". I know I did. Rose Trade Thread
I wouldn't have done Rose for Lopez as Chicago New York.
This deal was just awful. And it set the tone for an equally strange past the point of paying them that much offseason. Rose has been awful. Lopez is solid and decent. Unless its a disguised long term salary cap dump, this move makes no sense. And even then I dislike it.
Free Agency:
Jeff Hornacek (Head Coach)
Joakim Noah 4/$72.6m
Courtney Lee 4/$48m
Lance Thomas 4/$27.5m (last year nongtd)
Brandon Jennings 1/$5m
Mindaugas Kuzminskas 2/$5,923,035
Guillermo Hernangomez 4/$5.9m (last year nongtd)
Marshall Plumlee 3/$2.5m (1st year gtd, last 2 non gtd)
Maurice Ndour 2/1.4m (last year nongtd)
Sasha Vujacic 1/$1.4m
J.P. Tokoto, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker 1 year mostly nongtd (100k/100k/75k respectively)
Amar’e Stoudemire signed and retired
Hornacek seems like a decent coach put in a tough situation. Guess it will test him right away.
I called Noah a non-key loss for Chicago. And he just got 72m? The health and age concerns are very real, and when coupled with Rose concerns you are basically banking on a very fragile setup. And here it is long term.
I like the Lee signing. Solid. Touch old. Touch pricey. That is why they call it free agency.
No feelings on Lance
Jennings is a great one year flier. Type of deal where if it works you say why wasn't it for longer. And I will echo that. Instead of overspending on Noah and via trade Rose, why not see if you could have had Jennings at 2/16 with a team option? That said, he is a score first instinctive player with a sub 50% TS%, not having that locked up long term is not a big deal.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas for twice the price per year as Guillermo Hernangomez seems backward. At least in the Olympics, Kuzminskas made me feel like he would be the random Euro that never makes it. Maybe the raw 10.8ppg and 4.5 rpg in 22.7 mpg looks better than 6.6 and 2.7 rpg in 10.9 mpg, but it doesn't when scaled to equal time, or looking at fg% for instance. And that is ignoring that Kuzminskas looked horrible at defense when I saw him.
The +/- data should be taken with a big grain of salt, they were on different teams and all that but ...
Kuzminskas: -45 in 136 minutes
Hernangomez: +22 in 76 minutes
Put me down as in favor of Hermangomez signing (and trade for last year), and skeptical that the 26 year old Kuzminskas gets another NBA contract after this one even.
A'mare retiring as a Knick is just strange. Honestly, what is wrong with Phoenix? Alone it would be what it is, but combined with Dragic's comments and Morris' comments; and if I recall correctly, Isaiah Thomas had wanted his trade from the 3 pg situation as well. Altogether it gets disturbing, although Tyson Chandler signing their maybe makes it easy to see a bunch of unrelated incidents?
This might be the one roster in the league J.P. Tokoto can get onto. He is really raw, but that depth is brutally thin.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings
SG: Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Baker, J.P Tokoto, Chasson Randle
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Maurice Ndour
C: Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, Guillermo Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee
I could have fiddled with this a bunch, but at the end of the day it will really move fluidly with health. Looks to be room for one of Baker/Tokoto/Randle.
Needs:
Health. Time machine. Adequate bench play.
Or to have everything fall apart and secretly tank to get a very high draft pick next year and get a swingman or pg to pair with Porzingis (and Hermangomez).
Additional Thoughts:
Porzingis. Porzingis growth is what the team really needs and will rely on going forward.
Where does it come n the offensive side? Last season, 225 of Porzingis 1028 points last season came as a spot up shooter, scoring with the efficiency of just the 25.9 percentile.
164 roll man (64.4 percentile)
138 post up (44.8 percentile)
135 cuts (33.9 percentile)
100 putbacks (83.8 percentile) Maybe this is why they got Rose and Jennings?
76 transition (20.3 percentile)
75 off screens (45.9 percentile)
52 isolation (40.9 percentile)
8 points ballhandler (cannot be significant 18.1 percentile)
The spot up shooting hopefully can improve its efficiency, but the real question I would have is can you get a pg and play the pick and roll like Stockton and Malone with that player and Porzingis for the next decade? I don't think that is Rose at all. If not, can Porzingis develop a post game? It wouldn't be my first choice, and Melo Rose and Noah don't seem like a setup to do so. Porzingis might just spend this season shooting more jumpers, and as a third option behind Melo and Rose (who loves to eat up possessions), which is not what I would have liked ideally. Instead, I would be looking at Porzingis and seeing if there is any way to mold him into a first option that can create versus a complimentary player that just scores off others.
Projected Win/Loss: 34-48
Off-Season Grade: D I'm pretty tempted to make this one an F. The thing that is saving it is besides Noah, the damage doesn't seem long term and maybe Noah is a good role model for Porzingis? Ugh. I hated this offseason. It was a whole lot of running in place without a long term strategy.
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Robin Lopez
Arron Afflalo
Langston Galloway
Losses:
Jerian Grant
Jose Calderon
Lou Amundson
Kevin Seraphin
Cleanthony Early
Tony Wroten
Derrick Williams
Draft:
Trades:
Lopez/Grant/Calderon for Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-rounder.
I hate this trade so much for them. Rose hasn't been very good in like 3 years, and they gave up a probably better player in Lopez plus Grant. I feel like Phil thinks its 2011.
Free Agency:
Jeff Hornacek (Head Coach)
Joakim Noah 4/$72.6m
Courtney Lee 4/$48m
Lance Thomas 4.$27.5m (last year nongtd)
Brandon Jennings 1/$5m
Mindaugas Kuzminskas 2/$5,923,035
Guillermo Hernangomez 4/$5.9m (last year nongtd)
Marshall Plumlee 3/$2.5m (1st year gtd, last 2 non gtd)
Maurice Ndour 2/1.4m (last year nongtd)
Sasha Vujacic 1/$1.4m
J.P. Tokoto, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker 1 year mostly nongtd (100k/100k/75k respectively)
Amar’e Stoudemire signed and retired
A lot going on, but the biggest deals were a mix. Like the Hornacek signing, think he got a raw deal in PHX and is a good coach. Lee, Thomas, and Jennings are all solid signings at or below market value. But Noah kills the entire thing to me. Too much money,too many years. He's a guy I love,but hasn't been healthy in 2 years and doesn't look good going forward. Ugh.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings
SG: Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Baker, J.P Tokoto, Chasson Randle
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Maurice Ndour
C: Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, Guillermo Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee
Needs:
Youth, and miracle doctors to stay healthy ,and a time machine to 2011. And still a PG.
Additional Thoughts:
Said it all above. Some good, but more than negated by the bad. If healthy they may make the playoffs and be decent,but that seems tough to imagine. Good luck to them though,hate to see injury to anyone.
Projected Win/Loss: 36-46
Off-Season Grade: D+
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Robin Lopez
Arron Afflalo
Langston Galloway
Derrick Williams
All of these are solid players, though Afflalo was bad last year. Losing Lopez might hurt the most, especially if Noah can't stay healthy.
Losses:
Jerian Grant
Jose Calderon
Lou Amundson
Kevin Seraphin
Cleanthony Early
Tony Wroten
None of these guys move the needle that much, though Grant looked like he might have a little bit of skill.
Draft:
Trades:
Lopez/Grant/Calderon for Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-rounder.
Is it weird that I think Justin Holiday might wind up being the most important piece of this trade? He's shown some decent skill in Chicago, and he was one of my under-the-radar guys I wanted the Thunder to target a couple of years ago. Keep an eye on him.
Free Agency:
Jeff Hornacek (Head Coach)
Joakim Noah 4/$72.6m
Courtney Lee 4/$48m
Lance Thomas 4.$27.5m (last year nongtd)
Brandon Jennings 1/$5m
Mindaugas Kuzminskas 2/$5,923,035
Guillermo Hernangomez 4/$5.9m (last year nongtd)
Marshall Plumlee 3/$2.5m (1st year gtd, last 2 non gtd)
Maurice Ndour 2/1.4m (last year nongtd)
Sasha Vujacic 1/$1.4m
J.P. Tokoto, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker 1 year mostly nongtd (100k/100k/75k respectively)
Amar’e Stoudemire signed and retired
The weird thing about this is that I like a lot of it. Hornacek is a solid head coach, Lee is a great journeyman SG for a reasonable price, Thomas is a bargain for a tweener 3/4 who's really come on as a stretch 4, Jennings as a 1-year flier is a good get, Hernangomez is a decent pick...a few of these guys on the back end of the roster I barely know, but on the whole a lot of this is nice.
I'm going to preface this by saying that I'm one of the biggest Noah stans out there. I'd have taken prime Noah over prime Dwight Howard, and I realize that makes zero sense, but I love guys with his toughness, heart, defensive skill and playmaking. One of the reasons I love Millsap so much too.
But WHAT ARE YOU DOING PHIL? 4 years? 72 million? Did you learn nothing from watching Dolan pour money down an Amare Stoudemire-shaped hole in the roster for years? Noah's not healthy. He's on the wrong side of 30. He's not been healthy for a couple of years. Sure, healthy Noah is a DPOY candidate and a guy who can provide a ton of value in the frontcourt. But WHAT?
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings
SG: Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Baker, J.P Tokoto, Chasson Randle
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Maurice Ndour
C: Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, Guillermo Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee
Needs:
Rose and Noah and Anthony and Jennings to be healthy. If they are, this is a terrific team.
Additional Thoughts:
I might have rolled the dice on one guy—Rose in a vacuum or Noah in a vacuum is a solid enough get. But both, then adding Jennings as the backup coming off Achilles issues, and Melo's issues that he's had...this team could crash and burn very hard for a long time.
Projected Win/Loss: 40 wins I have no idea. It all depends on health.
Off-Season Grade: D
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Key Losses:
Robin Lopez
The Knicks were competitive in line ups with Lopez on the floor and he is an earnest competitor who has been a likeable teammate and a true professional wherever he's played. Most importantly he stays healthy and keeping a blue collar guy like him on the roster would have given a stability from 3-5 spots for the Knicks. So this is a big loss when you think they sold him for a below average PG and spent considerably more to bring in a less reliable replacement.
Losses:
Langston Galloway
Arron Afflalo
Derrick Williams
Jerian Grant
Jose Calderon
Lou Amundson
Kevin Seraphin
Cleanthony Early
Tony Wroten
Galloway is not a bad player but he is not great at any particular thing either but he did log a considerable amount of minutes for them last season and has value in defensive match ups. I cannot lean either way on bringing him back for the money he took in New Orleans as he regressed in his long range shooting and it might not be a bad idea to replace him with Holliday here and see if he fares better.
Afflalo, despite his reputation has not really been a good defender and its not worth paying him for his post ups but he did shoot decently well last season at 38% from 3 and parlayed that into a contract with the Kings which the Knicks couldn't afford.
I'm not sure if they should have been eager to dump Calderon in the Rose trade, considering he is still a decent enough player as a back up PG who can stay healthy, shoot well and be a steady presence in terms of running an offense, which Hornaceck might have appreciated. They might be justified in gambling on Jennings for less but Jennings is a mixed bag and someone you want to avoid when your starting PG is unreliable as well.
Trades:
Lopez/Grant/Calderon for Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-rounder.
The Bulls were +3 on offense, +2.5 on defense without Rose on the floor and neither his shooting metrics nor advanced stats paint a better picture. I think they could have gotten a comparable or perhaps better guard albeit without the big name or ex-MVP credentials in free agency quite easily with the pile of cash they were sitting on and not have to worry about any of the health issues or the upcoming legal worries either.
This forced them to trade a solid starting veteran big man on a very affordable deal in Robin Lopez and then have to spend a ton of cash on another health gamble in Joakim Noah to fill that void. I guess the only silver lining here is that GarPax couldn't talk Steve Mills into a pick swap scenario which a better GM could easily have done and turn this into highway robbery.
Free Agency:
Jeff Hornacek (Head Coach)
Joakim Noah 4/$72.6m
Courtney Lee 4/$48m
Lance Thomas 4.$27.5m (last year nongtd)
Brandon Jennings 1/$5m
Mindaugas Kuzminskas 2/$5,923,035
Guillermo Hernangomez 4/$5.9m (last year nongtd)
Marshall Plumlee 3/$2.5m (1st year gtd, last 2 non gtd)
Maurice Ndour 2/1.4m (last year nongtd)
Sasha Vujacic 1/$1.4m
J.P. Tokoto, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker 1 year mostly nongtd (100k/100k/75k respectively)
Amar’e Stoudemire signed and retired
The Hornaceck hiring is probably the best transaction they have done in a long while. Although the guard oriented scheme he had in Phoenix cannot be applied here, a lot of the simple ball movement oriented offensive principles he brings along will be a refreshing change provided they don't exclusively run on a healthy dose of Melo isolations. You just hope Phil gives him the freedom to implement his ideas than prod him into adapting a tough to teach offense.
If Noah can stay healthy, he is still an excellent defender, passer and just about good enough to not be a drag on offense. BUT Noah hasn't stayed healthy in a while and he's carried the workload of a mule under Thibodeu's relentless pursuit of some quixotic losing causes in Chicago. So expecting him to be healthy this year let alone 2-3 years from now is asking far too much and that's a lot of money contributing to his retirement fund.
Courtney Lee is a decent addition at the right price. He is a reliable 3 & D presence who requires very little usage and applies himself to defense. Even if things go a little wrong, forcing the Knicks to commit to rebuilding in earnest, he can fetch you something decent in a trade.
Not sure what to expect from Hernangomez and Kuzminskas, other than to hope for the best but both are cheap and if either works out, that goes a long way towards bolstering the bench.
Brandon Jennings is a decent buy low option and while his play seemed erratic in Orlando, if he can stay healthy and in line with Hornaceck's offense, he will get opportunities here to may be start and recoup his value owing to the exposure he will receive by playing in NY. This seems good, atleast from Jennings' point of view.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings
SG: Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Baker, J.P Tokoto, Chasson Randle
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Maurice Ndour
C: Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, Guillermo Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee
The starting line up is threadbare as it is and rests on the health of Noah and Rose. When you look at who the back ups are and if you are a Knicks fan your spirits sink even lower. Both PGs on the roster have had significant injury issues in the recent past and neither inspire confidence even when healthy.
O'Quinn is not a center and if Noah misses time, which is very much a possibility, they might be better served going small with Porzingis at center, Melo at the 4 and Lance Thomas stepping in at the 3.
Needs:
1. This team has pressing needs from top to bottom, starting with a better reserve unit to spell relief for the older, oft-injured starters so one of the Euros proving good would be a pleasant surprise.
2. A **** load of good fortune health-wise or else enough luck in the lottery to draft a good player next year.
Additional Thoughts:
Like LA, NY is not the kind of market conducive to long term, slow and organic rebuilding through the draft so some of the moves the Knicks made has a certain level of logic to them in their own way. However calling this a superteam like Rose seems to believe is probably a parody on the superteam culture within the NBA. The bad news is that they couldn't attract a superstar with an all-star like Melo and an exciting young player on the roster.
An awful lot of things need to break right for the Knicks to not post a losing record this season and usually Gods are not so kind even with the best laid plans and this not a good roster. On the bright side they own their own picks from now onwards, which is good as long as they draft well to put some talent alongside Porzingis for the future.
You hope this season doesn't fill them with just enough false hope that they start making short term trades as soon as they see an asset.
Projected Win/Loss: 33 wins
Off-Season Grade: C-
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