HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Jared Sullinger
Evan Turner
Feels weird that Sullinger is gone getting paid less elsewhere than Zeller got to stay, but when you go to Horford from Sullinger, it is never a bad thing. That said, as an rfa who Boston had matching rights on, he was an asset, if a marginal one, and one which brought back nothing.
Turner I will always find an interesting NBA player. He can definitely morph into an Iguodala like presence if his game continues growing, but it is also pretty clear his game isn't yet matched to the price tag Portland paid. Boston had no choice here but to shrug and wave goodbye.
Losses:
John Holland
rights to Colton Iverson
John Holland didn't make it to the roster crunch. Colton Iverson is part of the slew of guys realizing that having their rights held exclusively by a singe NBA team isn't really that great of a deal.
Draft:
#3 Jaylen Brown
#16 Guerschon Yabusele (stashed)
#23 Ante Žižić (stashed)
#31 traded
#35 traded
#45 Demetrius Jackson
#51 Ben Bentil
#58 Abdel Nader (stashed)
Oh boy.
So, I hated this draft. They reached on Jaylen Brown, who I would have had 6th at best. And you cannot sell me on the fit either, he should be behind Crowder so its not like it was a pressing need of a backup sf that you must draft for fit. If the Celtics wanted the most long term upside, I think they should have gone for Murray or Bender. If the Celtics wanted win now production, Dunn. Jaylen Brown gives athleticism, but that alone does not make a guy a great prospect. Even if you think statistical models are getting overrated nowadays, the fact that Brown looked horrific in pretty much all of them has to give you pause. I hated this pick.
Yabusele is also highly questionable. Boston is not stashing a #16 pick. They are stashing Yabusele. Is that worth a pick at #16? I'm not sold it was at all, and that there wasn't significant value lost. Honestly, I would like this draft better if they had taken Zizic at #16, and then stashed Korkmaz at #23. Or taken Skal at #23, because that makes sense and if you cut Mickey, you end up cutting Mickey. They could have used 1 roster spot for a second 1st rounder. But Ante Žižić stash seems fine at #23.
Trading #31 instead of taking Zubac seems inherently wrong. Then again, I look at the Celtics and think they should have another center, so either him or Davis would have made sense. The value of the trade was fine, but with #35 even getting a guy who would be stashed, it just feels the one wrong time to do that trade.
I have no idea why Jackson fell to #45, but Boston had to do that pick on value. However, they need to figure it out now. Bentil instead of stashing Petr Cornelie (taken 2 picks later) seems a bad decision.
So, basically I think the Celtics reached for a guy in the range you shouldn't (top 5), didn't trade a pick when they should have traded it/done anything different than reaching for a stash, traded when they shouldn't, drafted fine, and then didn't stash when they should.
The Celtics draft was absolutely perfect for backseat drivers/Monday morning quarterbacks, and I would have changed pretty close to everything they did.
Trades:
#31 (Deyonta Davis) and #35th Rade Zagorac to Memphis Grizzlies for a 2019 LAC 1st (lotto protected)
On the surface a solid trade. I like the value in a vacuum until I look too closely: #31 and #35 for what is maybe #25 in 3 years but could be as good as #15 or as bad as 2 2nds? Especially with some falling prospects, it actually isn't a move you make unless you are completely panicked about roster spots.
How did the TnT board feel about the trade when it happened? 65% voted Memphis straight up won, 23% both won, and 10% said Boston. That distribution seems about right and suggests it wasn't a stellar deal for the Celtics, although Boston obviously was boxed in a bit with roster slots.
Free Agency:
Danny Ainge (GM) contract extension
Brad Stevens (Head Coach) contract extension
Al Horford 4/$113.3m (last year PO)
Tyler Zeller 2/$16m (last year ungtd)
Gerald Green 1/$1.4 m
Jaylen Brown rookie scale
Demetrius Jackson 4/$5.5m (2m gtd -- 1st year and hlf of 2nd year, last year TO)
Ben Bentil 3/$2.5m (250k gtd only)
Marcus Georges-Hunt 1year min (25k gtd only)
Jalen Jones and Damion Lee 1 year min most likely ungtd all or close
Love the coach extension. Good with the Ainge extension. Keeping what they have going is key, and the extensions do that from a management perspective.
Horford was the big hit. I love Horford as a player, and think the Boston system will be perfect for him. I'm really not concerned with his age or the money involved, although understand that some might be. Especially when you look at something like his rebounding numbers. Okay, maybe I am concerned. Having a strong, good rebounding 2nd big next to Horford would seem really important. Someone like Sullinger for instance would have been interesting.
The very strong Durant pitch was nice, and hopefully can roll over into a strong push for free agents next summer. But I'm not sure how muchI really want to give credit for Durant kinda liked us. At the end of the day, what is that actually worth? The next batchof free agents will need to be won over based upon their preferences.
Besides that? Green seems like an iffy choice for your only vet min import, but maybe I'm wrong. Rolling over Zeller as a trade matching piece is fine, and maybe he proves worth the 2nd year like Amir and Jerebko did.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier, Demetrius Jackson
SG: Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Gerald Green, James Young
PF: Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, Ben Bentil
C: Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
I moved Smart to backup sg, and Green to 3rd string sf. If Green is getting more minutes than Jaylen Brown there are going to be a lot of unhappy Celtic fans.
Needs:
The roster needs trades just to trim the edges. The team needs a superstar.
I don't have a ton of faith in Olynyk/Zeller/Jerebko as the 3rd-5th big, so I would like to see an upgrade there, but Olynyk could look really good as a floor spacer so I do hold off some hope there. I actually would like to see Boston shake loose from their maximum flexibility and try and sign Olynyk if they can get him locked in cheapish on an extension.
Is Terry Rozier a stud pg prospect who just needs minutes to show it? If so, Jackson is in for a rough time ever seeing any action but the hype might have run a little far on Rozier, we will see.
Additional Thoughts:
Thank goodness for the Nets and Billy King.
Also the deals not done.
Butler
Noel, Covington, #24and #26 for #3.
For Butler the trade rumors never pegged down exactly what would have done the deal, just that it might have taken one or both of Bradley/Crowder and one or both of the Nets picks, and not one of each at all. Without a clear offer on the table that Chicago would have said yes to, it is hard to say what Boston should have done here. But Butler would look pretty good on Boston. However, before Horford the team need was much more clearer at the bigs.
For the Philly offer, Boston's roster crunch would have made that deal very hard to do. Still, Noel would have been an amazing fit, an athletic big that is a defensive standout, has mobility, and can dunk lobs all day off guard penetration would be amazing with IT driving. Covington would have been a really great backup sf (and eat into Jerebko's backup pf minutes), and #26 stashing Korkmaz for instance would have been doable. Compared to taking Brown, I think the trade was a better offer. However, I feel like Boston's end game here is Cousins at the trade deadline or next offseason, and hopefully Jaylen Brown is a better piece in that trade (Sac has WCS already and Noel and him might have played together in college, but that doesn't mean they would be a good pairing in the NBA.) So, looked at from that perspectve I get it completely.
But Boston could really use a Cousins trade, and unleashing a Horford Cousins front court on the league.
Projected Win/Loss: 50-32
Off-Season Grade: B+ This grade would bug me regardless of what I wrote. Is it a great offseason that saw a stud Horford signed, Durant almost signed and tons of positive momentum towards the next move? Or is it an offseason which saw a bunch of draft assets depreciate instantly with questionable decisions, a roster that will soon cut some youths just for roster spots as is, and the only takeaway is an aging oft injured big that is best as a 2nd or even 3rd banana and is getting crazy money for 4 years? I feel like it feels like an A-, but was really more like a C+/B- when you look closely. As long as you were your protective glasses, everything in Oz is green and amazing, so this one is a B+.
bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review
Key Losses:
Jared Sullinger
Evan Turner
Losses:
John Holland
rights to Colton Iverson
Draft:
#3 Jaylen Brown
#16 Guerschon Yabusele (stashed)
#23 Ante Žižić (stashed)
#31 traded
#35 traded
#45 Demetrius Jackson
#51 Ben Bentil
#58 Abdel Nader (stashed)
I'm going to be honest, I didn't love the draft. I think Brown was a worse prospect than at least Dunn, and they should have either taken and kept Dunn or traded him. Also, they're getting to a point where they're just having to take guys with the sole purpose of stashing them. Yabusele looked good in summer league, other than that I don't know if there's a difference maker anywhere here and they had to trade 2 picks for a future pick just to get rid of one.
Trades:
#31 (Deyonta Davis) and #35th Rade Zagorac to Memphis Grizzlies for a 2019 LAC 1st (lotto protected)
Free Agency:
Danny Ainge (GM) contract extension
Brad Stevens (Head Coach) contract extension
Al Horford 4/$113.3m (last year PO)
Tyler Zeller 2/$16m (last year ungtd)
Gerald Green 1/$1.4 m
Jaylen Brown rookie scale
Demetrius Jackson 4/$5.5m (2m gtd -- 1st year and hlf of 2nd year, last year TO)
Ben Bentil 3/$2.5m (250k gtd only)
Marcus Georges-Hunt 1year min (25k gtd only)
Jalen Jones and Damion Lee 1 year min most likely ungtd all or close
Now here on the other hand, they nailed it. Got the second best guy on the market in Horford. Extended a good coach. Green is a fine low salary pickup for the bench. Zeller's deal was cheap and has a year unguaranteed. Really there's not a thing here not done well.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Demetrius Jackson
SG: Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, James Young
PF: Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, Ben Bentil
C: Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
Needs:
Consolidation and probably a true star. They look solid all around, but could really use a single go to guy.
Additional Thoughts:
At this point, they had a pretty awesome offseason. Not perfect (see grade below) but darn near it. They really do need a consolidation soon though. One of the Brooklyn picks will likely be traded in my opinion this year, as they've gotta do something before everyone's contract runs up. IT/Bradley will be expirings in a year, and Smart/Olynyk due extensions. To add, Horford is 30 and not getting younger and they'll have I think 24 guys if they keep all the picks in a year. Something's gotta give, and I think Ainge is going to just finally have to pay up for someone via trade or trade away some of the vets there. At some point you can only carry so many players on a roster. However, coming into this season, they should be a solid 2-3 seed in the east and at least win a round or 2 in the playoffs.
Projected Win/Loss: 51-31
Off-Season Grade: A- (downgraded to - for the draft)
dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review
Key Losses:
Jared Sullinger
Evan Turner
Losses:
John Holland
rights to Colton Iverson
Draft:
#3 Jaylen Brown
#16 Guerschon Yabusele (stashed)
#23 Ante Žižić (stashed)
#31 traded
#35 traded
#45 Demetrius Jackson
#51 Ben Bentil
#58 Abdel Nader (stashed)
I liked this draft, though I probably would have taken Dunn over Brown with the #3. Even if you have a bunch of guards on the roster already, feels like the Celtics could have squeezed Minny a little bit the same way Philly did with Orlando in the 2014 draft with Payton. I like Yabusele—he looks pretty decent. The other picks I can take or leave.
Trades:
#31 (Deyonta Davis) and #35th Rade Zagorac to Memphis Grizzlies for a 2019 LAC 1st (lotto protected)
I like this solely from an asset consolidation point of view. Davis is solid, but the Celtics have a pretty bad roster crunch problem right now.
Free Agency:
Danny Ainge (GM) contract extension
Brad Stevens (Head Coach) contract extension
Al Horford 4/$113.3m (last year PO)
Tyler Zeller 2/$16m (last year ungtd)
Gerald Green 1/$1.4 m
Jaylen Brown rookie scale
Demetrius Jackson 4/$5.5m (2m gtd -- 1st year and hlf of 2nd year, last year TO)
Ben Bentil 3/$2.5m (250k gtd only)
Marcus Georges-Hunt 1year min (25k gtd only)
Jalen Jones and Damion Lee 1 year min most likely ungtd all or close
Ainge and Stevens are no-brainers.
I like the Horford signing a lot. He does a lot of things at both PF and center that they could use—basically a better version of Sullinger, though off the top of my head Sully's a better rebounder.
Zeller's not great, but his contract's not too bad, and the last year being unguaranteed is nice, especially as a trade chip.
Green as bench depth is solid enough. We'll see what Stevens can get out of him. He's a bit of a gunner.
It is interesting to me that they're bringing Jackson and Bentil in on longer contracts. This is a common theme this year for 2nd-rounders.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Demetrius Jackson
SG: Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, James Young
PF: Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, Ben Bentil
C: Al Horford, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller
This is a solid team that got better this year and is still set up pretty well for the future.
One worry I'd have is ballhandling on the second unit. Unless you play Rozier/Smart/Brown/Jerebko/Johnson, which I think is probably more likely.
Turner will probably be missed.
Needs:
Consolidation. Thomas and Horford are great, but to get this team to the next level they really need one more really good player.
Smart needs to prove that he can be an efficient offensive player and not the second coming of Tony Allen. Not that there's anything wrong with Tony Allen—I love the guy—but he's not what the Celts thought they had in Smart, and for them to get better I think he has to get better.
Brown needs to be able to hit the ground running. SF isn't a great spot behind Crowder, and if he can't contribute from day 1 your 2nd unit SF is either James Young (NOT GREAT BOB) or Jerebko playing down a position, which seems like not such a good idea. Or Gerald Green, who makes Jeff Green look consistent.
It would be nice if Hunter showed some promise this year, too. Green and Smart as SGs are decent enough, but a little extra scoring wouldn't go amiss.
Additional Thoughts:
Watch the Celtics for consolidation trades. They HAVE to consolidate. There are 16 guaranteed and 4 partial or non guaranteed players on the roster right now.
In 2017 they have 2 firsts and 3 seconds. In addition, Yabusele and Zizic aren't going to want to stay stashed and could sign their tender to get out from under team control if the Celtics can't fit them on the roster, same as Zubcic and Brown did this year. That's not even counting Nader and Thornton, who also might take the same route.
Boston realistically could have two teams worth of players next year. That's untenable, and if you think agents and players are going to be OK with guys getting stashed for multiple years because there's no room on the roster, you're flat wrong. You just are.
Ainge has to do something, and it'll be very interesting to see how it plays out.
Projected Win/Loss: 50 wins
Off-Season Grade: A- I like a lot of the moves, but Zeller's contract is a little too high for his production, the roster crunch is a real issue, and I think Ainge is probably trying to drive too hard of a bargain at the moment for star players from the reports I've heard. You have the resources. Use them.
Slava wrote:Slava Review
Key Losses:
Evan Turner
Props to Turner for betting on himself and turning that into a nice long term contract with Portland. For every 5 players that tend to go that route, 4 usually come right back to signing MLE level deals if they are under 25 and vet minimum deals once the potential tag falls off.
Celtics will miss his playmaking ability in line ups without Isiah Thomas but the key here is to maintain cap flexibility and tying that into the likes of Turner is not one of their priorities going into next summer, which might be crucial to their free agency plans.
Losses:
John Holland
rights to Colton Iverson
Jared Sullinger
Sullinger has received regular criticism for his lack of conditioning and motivation to stay in shape but did nothing to alter that opinion. He is still a good man to man defender owing to his girth and lower body strength but otherwise a player who falls in love with the jumper too often while not being efficient enough with it. I think the rest of the rotation can handle this loss quite well, especially with the addition of Al Horford.
Draft:
#3 Jaylen Brown
#16 Guerschon Yabusele (stashed)
#23 Ante Žižić (stashed)
#31 traded
#35 traded
#45 Demetrius Jackson
#51 Ben Bentil
#58 Abdel Nader (stashed)
I think the Celtics reached a bit to draft Jaylen Brown as they already have excellent athleticism and perimeter defense which he can bring to the table right away and could afford to gamble on the upside of someone like Bender or take a more dynamic starting PG like Kris Dunn who can provide the tenaciousness on defense that goes with the roster while being a better shot creator than either Smart or Bradley.
Stacking up picks to use in trades has not gone according to Ainge's plan so far and as a result the over abundance of mid to late firsts and a roster number crunch meant he had to make drafting decisions based on players' interest in settling for a year or more abroad.
Yabusele is a stretch 4 with a SF's height, albeit with a much heavier frame. His situation in France is a bit interesting as his team got relegated to a lower division in the French league, which probably means he has to move to a new team to continue his development and lack of an NBA spot might mean he signs a new contract which may or may not have an NBA friendly out for the next few years. So when and how he comes to the NBA will be interesting to see and I venture to guess it might be 2-3 years before that happens.
Zizic is a highly rated center with impressive production in the Adriatic league at age 19. He has solid size, a high motor, plays with tenacity and fits the profile of a low usage modern NBA big man. He does not appear to have an NBA out in his current contract, which makes him more amenable to accept staying abroad a while longer and come in once he is a bit more polished and when the Celtics have a roster spot to spare.
Trades:
#31 (Deyonta Davis) and #35th Rade Zagorac to Memphis Grizzlies for a 2019 LAC 1st (lotto protected)
Another trade motivated by the roster crunch which turned out to be quite good for Memphis once Davis dropped that far.
Free Agency:
Danny Ainge (GM) contract extension
Brad Stevens (Head Coach) contract extension
Al Horford 4/$113.3m (last year PO)
Tyler Zeller 2/$16m (last year ungtd)
Gerald Green 1/$1.4 m
Jaylen Brown rookie scale
Demetrius Jackson 4/$5.5m (2m gtd -- 1st year and hlf of 2nd year, last year TO)
Ben Bentil 3/$2.5m (250k gtd only)
Marcus Georges-Hunt 1year min (25k gtd only)
Jalen Jones and Damion Lee 1 year min most likely ungtd all or close
Ainge's extensions appears to be a formality and locking up Stevens is another smart move. Once Popovich retires, he figures to be in line to be the unanimous choice for best coach in the league.
Horford in a vacuum is not worth that kind of money but his smartness and versatility fits Boston's playing scheme. He's motivated to stay in shape and hasn't had any concerning long term injuries so the 3rd and 4th years won't be as dicey as it might otherwise be for a player his age. More importantly he elevates the talent level on a roster which might be ready for an East finals appearance this year so I can't be too critical of this move. This might have looked better had they succeeded in bringing in Durant as well and weirdly enough Durant not staying in OKC might have helped them bring Al to Boston.
Zeller is the only true center on the roster and while his opportunities looked limited last year, he is still a fine option to have for match up purposes and he is being brought back on a very team friendly deal, which certainly helps maintain flexibility to open up room for one or more max contracts next summer.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Demetrius Jackson
SG: Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, James Young
PF: Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, Ben Bentil
C: Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
This is a quality roster with good balance. They might be missing an elite offensive player to win them a tough playoff series against Lebron and IT might have to play that role until then.
Needs:
1. Consolidate the war chest into an elite star player.
Additional Thoughts:
This is a team that's got almost everything in place from a great coach to a solid roster and they are missing one final piece to make them a true contender. It might have turned into a dream offseason if they had recruited Durant successfully and completed a trade for someone like Cousins or Griffin.
The Cavs can't be more vulnerable than they are now with an incomplete roster owing to luxury tax issues and the Raptors just exhausted their avenues for improvement having bet their house on Derozan.
So without getting too much into the media leaks of trade proposals, I see a need for greater urgency to get a big trade accomplished sooner than later so that the team's window of contention starts this season.
Even if they have to pay over the odds in terms of picks, its better to do it for the right player than having to make draft decisions with a roster crunch in mind and limiting their options to picks who can be stashed abroad.
I still see them as the best team to complete a trade for either Cousins or Butler mid-season as soon as either player becomes available but I can only grade them based on what they did this summer.
Projected Win/Loss: 50-32
Off-Season Grade: B
165bows wrote:165bows Review
Key Losses:
Jared Sullinger
Evan Turner
Losses:
John Holland
rights to Colton Iverson
Draft:
#3 Jaylen Brown
#16 Guerschon Yabusele (stashed)
#23 Ante Žižić (stashed)
#31 traded
#35 traded
#45 Demetrius Jackson
#51 Ben Bentil
#58 Abdel Nader (stashed)
Trades:
#31 (Deyonta Davis) and #35th Rade Zagorac to Memphis Grizzlies for a 2019 LAC 1st (lotto protected)
Free Agency:
Danny Ainge (GM) contract extension
Brad Stevens (Head Coach) contract extension
Al Horford 4/$113.3m (last year PO)
Tyler Zeller 2/$16m (last year ungtd)
Gerald Green 1/$1.4 m
Jaylen Brown rookie scale
Demetrius Jackson 4/$5.5m (2m gtd -- 1st year and hlf of 2nd year, last year TO)
Ben Bentil 3/$2.5m (250k gtd only)
Marcus Georges-Hunt 1year min (25k gtd only)
Jalen Jones and Damion Lee 1 year min most likely ungtd all or close
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Demetrius Jackson
SG: Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, James Young
PF: Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Jordan Mickey, Ben Bentil
C: Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
Needs:
To see what they have. The Celtics have accumulated a stash of younger players of various upsides that will again need to beat out lower-ceiling yet established vets like Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Gerald Green and Tyler Zeller. The team plans on being competitive so younger players will have to earn minutes, with newcomer Gerald Green the question mark in my mind if he gets more of the Evan Turner-level rotation minutes or if he gets last year's Tyler Zeller treatment seeing only spot minutes. If the latter, he either isn't playing well or the young guards have grabbed hold of a substantial role.
Additional Thoughts:
"Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars."
That was the theme for the off-season that saw this team pursuing targets out of their league. While they landed closer to their target than most expected, their miss was of the 'horseshoes and handgrenades' variety as they still landed Al Horford, one of the better available FAs.
FA pursuits influenced their use of their stash of lower-end draft pick/trade assets. Significant time will have to pass before we know how much that strategy hurts their results, as three first round picks in Yabusele, Zizic and a 2019 LA Clippers pick won't be seen on this year's team and perhaps several more depending.
The big picture however is still a win, as the team addressed by far its biggest need, a reliable two-way front court player, as well as a starter-level minutes eater who can perform at a level above the average on offense.
Last year's 4th ranked defensive team should improve incrementally on that end, and the 10th ranked offense should be substantially better with offensive upgrades to Sullinger and to a lesser extent Turner.
Projected Win/Loss: 56-26
Off-Season Grade:A- :
