Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[MartinToVaught]

Being a Wolves fan is hilarious. Everyone should try it.

Add a couple more decades to the suffering and you'll get the Clipper fan experience, so I feel you on that one.

If it makes you feel any better, this was literally step 1 of owning a team and Lore/A-Rod couldn't even handle that, so they probably would have been terrible owners anyway.

[cgf]

Far more than the Jazz would be willing to offer. Im not even sure where Randle fits for the Jazz either on the court or timeline wise

If you’re building around, or holding onto Lauri, then your window is now. Randle is only 2.5 years older than Lauri. I think you could play them together plenty of minutes. Whether they are your two bigs, or you have Kessler on the court with them. Seems to work from an outsiders point of view.

Utah could add say Murray and Randle without losing all of the 2027 firsts, any of the 2029 firsts, Kessler, Hendricks, George, or Sexton. That sets up a win now team with the flexibility of trading for a superstar if one comes available.

I think that's a recipe for a team with limited upside and I don't think Randle is a good fit with Lauri at all. Your power forward needs to be fairly switchable and while Randle can, he's not a plus defender. Otherwise, it is better to play Lauri at the 4 (because he is pretty switchable). I also don't love the offensive fit between the two if there is no stretch 5.

FWIW Randle's shortcomings as a defender are primarily with the decisions he makes as a help guy & his lack of rim protection, not his switchability / on-ball defense. He's actually done well when smaller guys have tried targeting him, which is why we don't see it much...that and it's much easier to target Brunson.

It's when he decides to help on a guy that doesn't need it, while leaving himself with an impossibly long closeout back to his man, that you have to just shake your head & chuckle "oh Juju".

[babyjax13]

If you’re building around, or holding onto Lauri, then your window is now. Randle is only 2.5 years older than Lauri. I think you could play them together plenty of minutes. Whether they are your two bigs, or you have Kessler on the court with them. Seems to work from an outsiders point of view.

Utah could add say Murray and Randle without losing all of the 2027 firsts, any of the 2029 firsts, Kessler, Hendricks, George, or Sexton. That sets up a win now team with the flexibility of trading for a superstar if one comes available.

I think that's a recipe for a team with limited upside and I don't think Randle is a good fit with Lauri at all. Your power forward needs to be fairly switchable and while Randle can, he's not a plus defender. Otherwise, it is better to play Lauri at the 4 (because he is pretty switchable). I also don't love the offensive fit between the two if there is no stretch 5.

FWIW Randle's shortcomings as a defender are primarily with the decisions he makes as a help guy & his lack of rim protection, not his switchability / on-ball defense. He's actually done well when smaller guys have tried targeting him, which is why we don't see it much...that and it's much easier to target Brunson.

It's when he decides to help on a guy that doesn't need it, while leaving himself with an impossibly long closeout back to his man, that you have to just shake your head & chuckle "oh Juju".

If you are bad at rotating you aren't good in a switching scheme. That's the main problem I see, Lauri can defend threes but he gets beat some, so you need someone who can rotate and switch at the 4, as well. Randle has similar defensive shortcomings, as does Kessler. You can build a good defense with any one of them on the team, but I don't think three in the same lineup is a good idea.

[HartfordWhalers]

So if I'm following this correctly, Lore and A-Rod already bought shares of the team, got the rest locked in at an sweet outdated evaluation that they could pay later (but before March 27th), acquired funding, then just... Let the clock run out????? Wtf

They don't have the money and couldn't get it right? Didn't we just see something last week about a lender dropping out? Whalers will have more details because he's been suggesting this result almost from the beginning.

For what it is worth, I've been told I know nothing repeatedly about how Lore and ARod are super rich and all is good, so this is all probably wrong.
But:
1) I don't know how this will play out in court. I have speculation but that is just that.

However:

2) A-Rod and Lore combined did not have the 80% of 1.5B to invest solely in the team, the deal always relied on significant leverage.
So many people kept saying things like Lore has 4B and ARod has 2B and the two can easily do it, they just need to decide to use checking or savings and rich people like leverage. The national media is lying because Twolves lol. However, looking into the details to get Lore at 4B you had to count about 3b that his partners made on deals, it didn't add up ever. The NY post was writing about A-Rod not having the money in 2020. Even if you had Lore at 1B and A-Rod at 500m, to get there they would have had to liquate everything and have massive taxes etc. The deal was always speculative.

3) The structure of the deal was set up as speculative. Lore and A-Rod got a series of options. If the team lost 1b in value, they could walk away after the first 20%, or after the first 40%. If they couldn't get the cash or the value did drop, Glenn just overcharged for the first 20% based off what minority ownership was worth.

4) Minority ownership was so upset they couldn't get the 1.5B valuation for their ~20% when the deal was struck, Glenn was sued: https://tcbmag.com/timberwolves-minority-owner-cries-foul-files-suit-over-proposed-sale/
For those not interested in clicking, the minority owner at 17% had the right to sell at the same time as Taylor for the same price per share as Taylor. And Taylor claimed that the new deal didn't trigger that clause yet, as he wouldn't sell majority ownership until the 3rd option was exercised. Taylor actually won in court. But this really handily proves that the minority ownership was overpriced at the time because the price included a path to majority ownership, something Orbit didn't have.

5) Here is from an article on that ruling:

Orbit insisted that the pending sale was fraudulently designed to avoid triggering this provision. If approved by the NBA, the sale would initially involve a transfer of 20% of the franchise—the sale date was June 30 but that date has passed and so will be adjusted—with Purple Buyer Holdings able to buy an additional 20% by Dec. 31, 2022, and another option to buy 8.2% from Taylor, combined with 31.8% limited partnership interests, by Dec. 31, 2023.

https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2021/minnesota-timberwolves-arod-1234633393/

6) Based off that and the final option of the deal falling apart (for now at least), the current ownership should be:

40% new limited partners from Lore and Arod group (which includes other investors)
31.8% Original limited partners
28.2% Taylor
Feel free to look closely at that, and if somehow I missed some weird minority sale transfer last 2 years let me know.

EDIT: Looks like the deal was structured so some of the minority interests may have been sold in option 2. If so it could instead be something like:
40% new limited partners from Lore and Arod group (which includes other investors)
11.8% Original limited partners
48.2% Taylor

(Or somewhere in between those two extremes)

Source:

Read on Twitter

~7) I believe there was something I saw that was something like Lore + Arod = 37%, and other = 3%, but I'm not digging for it now so this is a lot more speculation. {Also, I would assume it would break down something like Lore 20% Arod 17% or whatever, but again this is not fact checked at all, thus the ~ out front.}

8) Carlyle pulled out March 19th/20th. Board of Governors meetings ended March 19th (they lasted two days). If anyone doesn't think that timing is important, I'm not sure what to tell you. Obviously there are a few possibilities:

~8a) Carlyle randomly has some conflict of interests that only Carlyle has and could not be divested or held in separate enough entities to make the NBA comfortable.
This is what Axios reported:

The two sides reached a stalemate in negotiations around two weeks ago, with a source saying something else in the firm's vast portfolio ran afoul of its institutional ownership rules.

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/19/nba-alex-rodriguez-carlyle-minnesota-timberwolves-deal

~8b) However, there also have been rumblings about the level of debt and the type of debt involved. Carlyle's financing has always been referred to not as an equity stake, but as structured finance. It would not be uncommon for this to take some form like a bond with some equity component versus a straight equity investment, meaning the new owners would not just be picking up the existing team debt, but also adding on debt in a manner that could make the rest of the NBA uneasy.

For those thinking that NBA teams only go up in value and so are great investments always and no need to worry, look back at what happened with the New Orleans franchise. It was effectively repossessed. Or look at the NBA borrowing program, whereby the entire NBA has set up a loan program so team owners can borrow at better rates than they would individually. There is not a small amount of leverage in some corners of the league, and it has absolutely been worrisome at points. Adding what might be one of the poorest owners after they add leverage to a team that might be forced to be dismantled from a championship contender because of tax and money concerns would give some pause.

9) Carlisle was a huge amount of the round, expected to put in 300m of the amount of money, or almost half of the stage. If it were a straight ownership at the initial team valuation, Carlyle would have owned 20% of the team. As it was structured, it was a ~13% ownership {Based off a 2.4b valuation I have seen sited, which I can add here later if needed}.

~9b) And if you believe the structuring would have been such that Carlyle took a 10% per year payment, then you are talking about 30m out of the team each year, either from team profits or extra borrowing along the way. Feel free to redo at 8% if you want to make it 24m instead. {Also, if you want, speculate that Carlyle had the ability to go from 13 to say 15% ownership with an option attached to the structured deal. Or perhaps up to 20% that is the maximum allowed in the NBA for PE. Such a structure would not be uncommon and actually be pretty easy to accommodate for a wide variety of reasons}.

10) Either way, the NBA absolutely has let word of mouth go out that Carlyle wasn't rejected. Just not accepted... read into that however you feel you should.

11) The new financing was lined up very fast, announced 3/20.
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/basketball/2024/a-rod-marc-lore-tap-dyal-to-complete-sale-timberwolves-1234771796/

12) The new deal had a different structure than the old proposed deal with Carlyle.

Existing partners within the incoming ownership, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, increased their initial investment to complete the deal, according to a source.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/basketball/2024/a-rod-marc-lore-tap-dyal-to-complete-sale-timberwolves-1234771796/

~12b) I haven't seen if it was just a borrowing decrease in essence, or if Dyal did not have claims on cash flow that I assume Carlyle had.

13) It was stressed that Dyal was a preapproved buyer. This is really strange wording. Even if the NBA has approved you as an owner multiple times before, you still need to be approved again whenever there is a new transaction. If Josh Harris sells the Sixers and in a decade tried to buy the Nets, that isn't just skipping an NGA vote because he was once approved before that.

To me this either suggests that
~13a) There was concern enough with a deal not being accepted again that the Lore ARod group were trying to smooth over fears in advance.
~13b) The Lore ARod group new they had already reached a status where it was going to be litigated about whether a deal already was approved, so tried to claim the partners were 'preapproved' in advance ahead of arbitration on the deadline issue.

14) The Dyal capital is itself an interesting read for those unfamiliar:
See for instance: https://www.sportico.com/business/finance/2023/dyal-homecourt-nba-assets-1234709900/
It is a fund that invests in the teams with clearly the wobbliest ownership structures (Kings, Hawks, Phx before the sale, maybe Minnesota now), and raised 1/10th the money they tried to. They also have to give some profits back to the league, so feel free to speculate on how the NBA feels about them coming in based off all that.

I think this about gets up to now. Avoiding too much speculation on where we fully go, I will add that the current structure might be actually promising for the team and worrying about its payroll/taxes, because

15) If Taylor retains his majority controlling stake, the structure of cash calls on owners will be very interesting. We have seen more than a few instances where controlling owners rack of giant tax and payroll bills that wreck their minority investors and the minority investors are for the most part helpless except to fund the losses or face shareholder dilution. This was how the Expos were 'purchased' to a wide degree, wrecked havoc on Nets investors, and the Kings and Hawks I believe have had minority owners so upset, it has reached national/shams/woj level stories iirc.

[cgf]

I think that's a recipe for a team with limited upside and I don't think Randle is a good fit with Lauri at all. Your power forward needs to be fairly switchable and while Randle can, he's not a plus defender. Otherwise, it is better to play Lauri at the 4 (because he is pretty switchable). I also don't love the offensive fit between the two if there is no stretch 5.

FWIW Randle's shortcomings as a defender are primarily with the decisions he makes as a help guy & his lack of rim protection, not his switchability / on-ball defense. He's actually done well when smaller guys have tried targeting him, which is why we don't see it much...that and it's much easier to target Brunson.

It's when he decides to help on a guy that doesn't need it, while leaving himself with an impossibly long closeout back to his man, that you have to just shake your head & chuckle "oh Juju".

If you are bad at rotating you aren't good in a switching scheme. That's the main problem I see, Lauri can defend threes but he gets beat some, so you need someone who can rotate and switch at the 4, as well. Randle has similar defensive shortcomings, as does Kessler. You can build a good defense with any one of them on the team, but I don't think three in the same lineup is a good idea.

That's fair. I don't think there's much chance we trade Julius unless that Kawhi trade that we were promised by the bolsheviks ever arrives, but you definitely wouldn't want Ju being the one who's reading the play to help defensively if we did. Just wanted to point out that he does defend down well when he has to.

[KnicksGadfly]

If you’re building around, or holding onto Lauri, then your window is now. Randle is only 2.5 years older than Lauri. I think you could play them together plenty of minutes. Whether they are your two bigs, or you have Kessler on the court with them. Seems to work from an outsiders point of view.

Utah could add say Murray and Randle without losing all of the 2027 firsts, any of the 2029 firsts, Kessler, Hendricks, George, or Sexton. That sets up a win now team with the flexibility of trading for a superstar if one comes available.

I think that's a recipe for a team with limited upside and I don't think Randle is a good fit with Lauri at all. Your power forward needs to be fairly switchable and while Randle can, he's not a plus defender. Otherwise, it is better to play Lauri at the 4 (because he is pretty switchable). I also don't love the offensive fit between the two if there is no stretch 5.

FWIW Randle's shortcomings as a defender are primarily with the decisions he makes as a help guy & his lack of rim protection, not his switchability / on-ball defense. He's actually done well when smaller guys have tried targeting him, which is why we don't see it much...that and it's much easier to target Brunson.

It's when he decides to help on a guy that doesn't need it, while leaving himself with an impossibly long closeout back to his man, that you have to just shake your head & chuckle "oh Juju".

Unfortunately, I have to add that Randle has effort issues that will leave fans raging. He has the gifts to do well, but sometimes can’t be bothered to.

[shrink]

Great work, as always, Hartford Whalers. A simple +1 didn’t seem like enough.

[Mavrelous]

15) If Taylor retains his majority controlling stake, the structure of cash calls on owners will be very interesting. We have seen more than a few instances where controlling owners rack of giant tax and payroll bills that wreck their minority investors and the minority investors are for the most part helpless except to fund the losses or face shareholder dilution. This was how the Expos were 'purchased' to a wide degree, wrecked havoc on Nets investors, and the Kings and Hawks I believe have had minority owners so upset, it has reached national/shams/woj level stories iirc.

Happened with the Mavericks BTW, Russ Perot Jr sued Cuban, he lost the trial but won in the end, he sold his stake with all minority owners at a very nice price.

[Domejandro]

Hartford is largely correct, both Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore have been an unmitigated disaster, throughout this process.

Glen Taylor is being an absolute rat **** here, but frankly, I don’t see why it is his responsibility to babysit the first sports franchise purchase of two wealthy men who cannot meet deadlines. People blaming Glen Taylor are woefully incorrect, all of this is avoided if those two meet deadlines and don’t repeatedly wait until the last minute.

[HartfordWhalers]

Hartford is largely correct,

Feel free to add anything you think isn’t entirely correct.

[MartinToVaught]

Hartford is largely correct, both Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore have been an unmitigated disaster, throughout this process.

Glen Taylor is being an absolute rat **** here, but frankly, I don’t see why it is his responsibility to babysit the first sports franchise purchase of two wealthy men who cannot meet deadlines. People blaming Glen Taylor are woefully incorrect, all of this is avoided if those two meet deadlines and don’t repeatedly wait until the last minute.

If anything, Taylor's been more than accommodating by extending the deadlines multiple times for them. At some point you either have the money to actually buy the team or you don't. It's obvious that ARod and Lore don't have the money, even at below-market value. Having the sale fall apart is a much better outcome for the league than being stuck with a dysfunctional financial mess like the McCourts or some of the owners that the NHL had in the late '90s/early 2000s.

I know Taylor hasn't been a particularly good owner himself and has a bad reputation, but the blame for this debacle is 100% on the two grown men who repeatedly couldn't meet the deadlines that they agreed to.

[Texas Chuck]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

[Rand10]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

Pre-trade: 117.6 ORTG / 117.4 DRTG (+0.2) 52 games
Post-trade: 118.4 ORTG / 111.7 DRTG (+6.7) 21 games

+6.7 net would be 3rd in the league if they had sustained it all season. If there's an achilles heel (other than Luka's) it's 3pt shooting. They're finding other ways to win, but I wonder if that can continue in a playoff series.

I'd be looking to turn THJ plus a pick into a player like Cam Johnson who can replace his shooting without being a turnstile on defense. Or you could look to upgrade the DJJ/Exum/Green position with someone like Caruso.

[MoneyTalks41890]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

They seem very good to be honest. I want to avoid Dallas more than any team except maybe the Lakers. It’s not just that they’ve been much better with the new bigs they brought in, it’s that everything is clicking so well at just the right time. I really loathe facing those teams in the playoffs.

But unless they make a very deep run like to the finals, I expect moves using some of the remaining flexibility to try to get that wing player.

Edit: Had a dream last night Kyrie got traded for AD. Which I think is probably still crazy but not positive.

[Texas Chuck]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

They seem very good to be honest. I want to avoid Dallas more than any team except maybe the Lakers. It’s not just that they’ve been much better with the new bigs they brought in, it’s that everything is clicking so well at just the right time. I really loathe facing those teams in the playoffs.

But unless they make a very deep run like to the finals, I expect moves using some of the remaining flexibility to try to get that wing player.

So the formula used to be Dwight Powell's rim running and shooters around Luka. And offensively this worked great. Now they've got arguably even better rim running with Gafford/Lively but those two also defend/rebound which Powell didn't. But as rand points out the shooting hasn't been consistent, but with the improved defense that's offset a bit.

And then Kyrie as a closer so everything isn't Luka at the end of games is such a luxury.

[Mavrelous]

I want to see the Mavs in the PO w/o their usual 5 out offense, it's very underrated aspect of what made Luka the PO monster he is, I think they'll be just fine, worse offensively but much better defensively, but it's interesting to see, I would've loved to do this experiment with Carlsile instead of Kidd but it is what it is.
With how the Pelicans (especially Zion) and Wolves look, KAT for Ingram centered trade must be explored...

[vincecarter4pres]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

Pre-trade: 117.6 ORTG / 117.4 DRTG (+0.2) 52 games
Post-trade: 118.4 ORTG / 111.7 DRTG (+6.7) 21 games

+6.7 net would be 3rd in the league if they had sustained it all season. If there's an achilles heel (other than Luka's) it's 3pt shooting. They're finding other ways to win, but I wonder if that can continue in a playoff series.

I'd be looking to turn THJ plus a pick into a player like Cam Johnson who can replace his shooting without being a turnstile on defense. Or you could look to upgrade the DJJ/Exum/Green position with someone like Caruso.

Dude before I scrolled down from Texas Chuck’s post you quoted, this was exactly the trade I was gonna suggest.

[vincecarter4pres]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

Wasn’t it you who brought up putting some dough on them to win the Finals a few months ago and us discussing it and saying we both did?

I threw a couple small wagers on it:

If it’s them and Cleveland in the Finals, I take home something like $8.5k.

If it’s those two in the Finals and Dallas wins, about $12.8k total.

If it’s “simply” Dallas winning, about $4.3k.

[NYG]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

Pre-trade: 117.6 ORTG / 117.4 DRTG (+0.2) 52 games
Post-trade: 118.4 ORTG / 111.7 DRTG (+6.7) 21 games

+6.7 net would be 3rd in the league if they had sustained it all season. If there's an achilles heel (other than Luka's) it's 3pt shooting. They're finding other ways to win, but I wonder if that can continue in a playoff series.

I'd be looking to turn THJ plus a pick into a player like Cam Johnson who can replace his shooting without being a turnstile on defense. Or you could look to upgrade the DJJ/Exum/Green position with someone like Caruso.

Dude before I scrolled down from Texas Chuck’s post you quoted, this was exactly the trade I was gonna suggest.

What would Dallas need to add to THJ/Powell for Cam?

[jayjaysee]

are the post-trade Mavericks like good? Seems like they are. And everyone important is under contract for next year save Derrick Jones Jr. So Dallas tries to use the THJ contract and limited assets to replace him right? Would be nice if Prosper looked like he could take some minutes next year, but that doesn't appear likely.

Does DJJ really cost more than the taxMLE to keep though? I think he can be kept for that..

I think Dallas is really good and set Luka/Kyrie up to be stars and maybe go on a run. But I thjnk they’re underdogs against 4 teams in an series even with the recent success. But that’s a great improvement and exciting..