Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[BlazersBroncos]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275439/Heat-In-Position-To-Acquire-All-Star-On-Same-Timeline-As-Bam-Adebayo

The Miami Heat are believed to be in a position to use their asset pool and how appealing they are to All-Stars across the league to acquire one in the near future.

"Miami is always in great position because, especially if it's players with not a lot left on their contract," said Adrian Wojnarowski before Miami's loss to the Boston Celtics in Game 1. "One year or two years. And they tell their team, 'I want a trade to the Heat, and if you don't send me to the Heat, I'm going to become a free agent and go somewhere else. Don't trade me to that team or that team.'

"Teams can still decide to send you where they want to send you, but it's always an advantage for Miami. Players want to be part of that organization. So I think Miami will be in a position again to use the assets they have to get another All-Star level player that maybe connects more on the timeline of Bam Adebayo and his age."

While Wojnarowski didn't specifically mention any names, one player who appears to fit the description is Donovan Mitchell.

Mitchell to Miami
Duncan Robinson to Detroit
Tyler Herro, 15th Overall, '29 1st and '31 1st to Cleveland

Didn't we just do this with Dame last summer?

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

[SkyHook]

Mitchell to Miami
Duncan Robinson to Detroit
Tyler Herro, 15th Overall, '29 1st and '31 1st to Cleveland

Didn't we just do this with Dame last summer?

On a positive note, this is the dream scenario for the Jazz. (Absolutely revolting for the Cavs.)

[HornetJail]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275439/Heat-In-Position-To-Acquire-All-Star-On-Same-Timeline-As-Bam-Adebayo



Mitchell to Miami
Duncan Robinson to Detroit
Tyler Herro, 15th Overall, '29 1st and '31 1st to Cleveland

Didn't we just do this with Dame last summer?

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

[K_chile22]

Didn't we just do this with Dame last summer?

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

Yeah seems like Woj doing some nice PR for teams as he's known to do (as opposed to Shams who tend to do that for players)

[jayjaysee]

Didn't we just do this with Dame last summer?

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

Miami’s 2025 first could convey in 2026, yet they were still able to trade the 2027.. So they can do the same thing with their 2029 first. Just like Denver and Philly did… This is pretty common.

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

I think other teams can outbid an all in offer from Miami, but an all in offer from Miami ends up being a respectable offer..

[jbk1234]

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

Miami’s 2025 first could convey in 2026, yet they were still able to trade the 2027.. So they can do the same thing with their 2029 first. Just like Denver and Philly did… This is pretty common.

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

I think other teams can outbid an all in offer from Miami, but an all in offer from Miami ends up being a respectable offer..

Even if there was no history between Riley and Gilbert when it comes to tampering with the Cavs best player, the problem the Heat have is they're not really a credible threat to sign Mitchell outright in 2025. The Cavs can wait a year and negotiate a S&T if Mitchell really wants to go to the Heat.

That said, there is a history, and if Gilbert even suspects that the Heat tampered with Mitchell, Altman's marching orders will be to trade him to another team.

[HornetJail]

Exactly.

Numerous teams could outbid the hell out of Miami IMO. And we saw even a MIA only edict won’t work.

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

Miami’s 2025 first could convey in 2026, yet they were still able to trade the 2027.. So they can do the same thing with their 2029 first. Just like Denver and Philly did… This is pretty common.

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

I think other teams can outbid an all in offer from Miami, but an all in offer from Miami ends up being a respectable offer..

true but there's still an extra year unprotected. they basically can't guarantee the 2029 and 2031 both convey without both our and OKC's cooperation, and that should lower the value of any package they offer.

For the 2029 to be available, it relies on Miami making the playoffs in both 2025 and 2027, which is far from a sure thing

[jayjaysee]

The Heat can't even send out their 2029 1st as it is. the 2027 1st that was sent out for Rozier is lotto protected and then unprotected in 2028. The Heat have even less to send than they did 9 months ago when Dame was trying to force his way there. And Mitchell should probably have more trade value than a 33yo Lillard did.

Miami’s 2025 first could convey in 2026, yet they were still able to trade the 2027.. So they can do the same thing with their 2029 first. Just like Denver and Philly did… This is pretty common.

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

I think other teams can outbid an all in offer from Miami, but an all in offer from Miami ends up being a respectable offer..

Even if there was no history between Riley and Gilbert when it comes to tampering with the Cavs best player, the problem the Heat have is they're not really a credible threat to sign Mitchell outright in 2025. The Cavs can wait a year and negotiate a S&T if Mitchell really wants to go to the Heat.

That said, there is a history, and if Gilbert even suspects that the Heat tampered with Mitchell, Altman's marching orders will be to trade him to another team.

I mean, risking him signing in Brooklyn or SAS.. or LAL just to try out a sign and trade doesn’t sound the best road if he asks out.

I would require everything from Miami, but their everything is enough if he asks for only Miami. Herro, Rozier, JJJ, and all three firsts. That probably gets Miami under the apron to do the trade legally and Miami just needs to find the right value from other teams. And maybe Miami can sneak a big forward in there somewhere.

Miami will say 60% of Mitchell (Terry) is good enough and look to upgrade other position. I disagree obviously, but have no worries as my team can’t get in the running..

And there’s the less realistic path where it’s Butler for Mitchell based if Miami really want to reset around Bam.. Jimmy based means Miami doesn’t need to duck the apron and can trade Herro and Rozier to build between Bam/Mitchell..

[jbk1234]

Miami’s 2025 first could convey in 2026, yet they were still able to trade the 2027.. So they can do the same thing with their 2029 first. Just like Denver and Philly did… This is pretty common.

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

I think other teams can outbid an all in offer from Miami, but an all in offer from Miami ends up being a respectable offer..

Even if there was no history between Riley and Gilbert when it comes to tampering with the Cavs best player, the problem the Heat have is they're not really a credible threat to sign Mitchell outright in 2025. The Cavs can wait a year and negotiate a S&T if Mitchell really wants to go to the Heat.

That said, there is a history, and if Gilbert even suspects that the Heat tampered with Mitchell, Altman's marching orders will be to trade him to another team.

I mean, risking him signing in Brooklyn or SAS.. or LAL just to try out a sign and trade doesn’t sound the best road if he asks out.

I would require everything from Miami, but there everything is enough if he asks for only Miami. Herro, Rozier, JJJ, and all three firsts. That probably gets Miami under the apron to do the trade legally and Miami just needs to find the right value from other teams. And maybe Miami can sneak a big forward in there somewhere.

Miami will say 60% of Mitchell (Terry) is good enough and look to upgrade other position. I disagree obviously, but have no worries as my team can’t get in the running..

And there’s the less realistic path where it’s Butler for Mitchell based if Miami really want to reset around Bam.. Jimmy based means Miami doesn’t need to duck the apron and can trade Herro and Rozier to build between Bam/Mitchell..

The premise here is that Mitchell insists on going to the Heat. If he doesn't insist on going to the Heat, and he won't extend, then the Cavs just take the best offer.

[jayjaysee]

The 2031 first maybe hold a lot less value since it’ll really depend on multiple other firsts conveying and not being delayed.. But yeah. Miami can trade the 2029 and 2031 firsts..

true but there's still an extra year unprotected. they basically can't guarantee the 2029 and 2031 both convey without both our and OKC's cooperation, and that should lower the value of any package they offer.

For the 2029 to be available, it relies on Miami making the playoffs in both 2025 and 2027, which is far from a sure thing

Yeah, it’s only a guarantee of one first conveying.

But they could word it as “2028 swap (if not conveyed to Charlotte) 2029 first (swap if first doesn’t convey to Charlotte in 2027), 2030 swap, 2031 first”

So it’s…

2 firsts and 2 swaps (2027 first conveys to Charlotte)
Or
2 swaps and 1 first (2028 first conveys to Charlotte)

You add in the 2024 first and whatever value Terry and Herro have and you have a good amount of value.. throw in JJJ and you have an offer that looks okay compared against other offers.

[HartfordWhalers]

Some more (extremely one sided) reporting on the Twolves situation:

https://huddleup.substack.com/p/the-inside-story-of-how-glen-taylor?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=17922&post_id=143674247&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=17lwnj&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Interesting set of competing negative claims about Taylor in it, which on the face are fully contradictory
-- he is bad for not letting minority owners cash out, but also bad for buying out a minority owner,
-- he is bad for fighting to keep the minorty owners from selling at a below market value now since he is destined to lose and they will only make 4% per year while the case is adjuctated (sometimes shortened to just 4% as if per year is not meaningful), but he also is bad for charging Lore and Arod a premium value for a minority ownership.

It repeats the claim that Lore and Arod were of course willing to pay it all at once... despite the actual reality that they literally didn't have league approved financing even years later!

It does confirm that Lore and Arod had a single projection of a non tax team (some insisted they must have submitted many sets of budgets and the league would juggle them all?), but makes sure to add that Lore and Arod didn't have to follow their budget.

It does confirm that the league rejected Carlylse (something the league preferred as didn't approve)

It does add that Dyal would have been at different numbers than Carlysle, and worse numbers for Lore and Arod.

It continually calls the agreement one that Lore will win.

Overall, about what you would expect from an article that first has a section roughly labelled "Why Taylor sucks and should lose"

The one detail that was interesting to me was it does have the current ownership with Taylor at 37% and Lore and Arod at 36%.


Reminder: Anything I write that isn't what you already believed is clearly made up and not supported, and you don't even need competing sources for an alternative view to be just as likely.
And I'm not speculating on if Lore and Arod can indeed win their legal fight, just what the % actual ownership of the two would be in that case and how much they actually have in wealth which really is a thing you can do research on... (Although speculating on exactly what Lore could cash out of in Wonder is a different beast).

[HartfordWhalers]

Okay, posted part of this on the GB, but probably worth sharing here too as we often ask on the trade board, exactly what is the sourcing. This is the business of the sourcing for this:

Stake your favorite crypto and earn rewards as high as 500% APY

Sounds really good.

And for those not convinced:

About Us
Since 2022, we have created wealth for Elite investors all over the world.
We are a company with a history

Hard to argue with that much track record...

[NYG]

26 + Kispert = Pick #?

[babyjax13]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

[HartfordWhalers]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

What two picks? That seems real high for what the 16th pick and a 2nd rounder?

[NYG]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

Joel Embiid $51,415,938
Paul Reed $7,723,000
Tyrese Maxey Cap Hold $13,031,760
16th Overall Pick $4,233,720

Total Salary $76,404,418
Cap Space $55,311,230
Tax Space $94,940,582
1st Apron Space $102,250,582
2nd Apron Space $113,063,582
Roster Spots Filled 4
Cap Holds $9,284,352

===

Joel Embiid $51,415,938
Paul Reed $7,723,000
Tyrese Maxey $35,250,000
16th Overall Pick $4,233,720
Paul George $49,350,000
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Cap MLE $8,006,000 (Nicolas Batum?)

Total Salary $174,821,391
Cap Space -$33,821,391
Tax Space -$3,476,391
1st Apron Space $3,833,609
2nd Apron Space $14,646,609

[Godaddycurse]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

Joel Embiid $51,415,938
Paul Reed $7,723,000
Tyrese Maxey Cap Hold $13,031,760
16th Overall Pick $4,233,720

Total Salary $76,404,418
Cap Space $55,311,230
Tax Space $94,940,582
1st Apron Space $102,250,582
2nd Apron Space $113,063,582
Roster Spots Filled 4
Cap Holds $9,284,352

===

Joel Embiid $51,415,938
Paul Reed $7,723,000
Tyrese Maxey $35,250,000
16th Overall Pick $4,233,720
Paul George $49,350,000
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Minimum $2,093,637
Cap MLE $8,006,000 (Nicolas Batum?)

Total Salary $174,821,391
Cap Space -$33,821,391
Tax Space -$3,476,391
1st Apron Space $3,833,609
2nd Apron Space $14,646,609

they.only have room exception after using capspace

[babyjax13]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

What two picks? That seems real high for what the 16th pick and a 2nd rounder?

That was via spotrac. I think it calculates 120 percent for 16, but I may need to refer to the realgm rookie scale page.

[NYG]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

What two picks? That seems real high for what the 16th pick and a 2nd rounder?

That was via spotrac. I think it calculates 120 percent for 16, but I may need to refer to the realgm rookie scale page.

https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/breaking-down-nba-141m-salary-cap-projection-2024-25/

[HartfordWhalers]

Just playing around with Philly's cap situation, if they want to offer a max contract to Paul George they can't keep Reed, they'll be looking at something like:

Embiid: $51.4 million
Maxey caphold: $13 million
Capholds for rookies (2): $13.2 million
Minimum roster charges (10): $11.61 million
Total: $89.21 million
Cap: $141 million

Max contract to Paul George: $49.35 million
=138.56 million

That also has them declining capholds for Tobias Harris, Buddy Heild, Paul Reid, and De'Anthony Melton. Once they then sign Maxey to a max I think that pushes them into the luxury tax, which means they only have the TPMLE and minimums to fill out basically their entire roster. If they trade both of their picks they can probably keep Reed, IMO that seems like their best option.

What two picks? That seems real high for what the 16th pick and a 2nd rounder?

That was via spotrac. I think it calculates 120 percent for 16, but I may need to refer to the realgm rookie scale page.

I see 4m and some change:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/cap/?callback=in&code=YJG2M2M3NJKTZTVMNS0ZZMZJLTG0YWETOWE2ODVKNTQZN2ZM&state=d7ac622c4c67439fa76acb0602f589f2