Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[AaronB]

I really like this approach. Probably not really a thread topic so merged it into the general thread, but I like you outlining your perspective on Suggs' value in detail and why you are setting such a high valuation.

A couple of things:

I think it is better as its own topic because most Magic fans are thinking pretty close to this and it will save conflict.

I put no valuation on Suggs at all and that is the point of the post.

I am pretty sure I know what valuation Suggs is not, but have no idea on what he is and I doubt anyone else has an idea at this point.

On a sort of related note what # would you offer him on an extension? If his camp ask for Vassell money would you agree? Do you have a limit you would stop at and let him go into RFA?

Several weeks ago I told the Magic board that I was calculating a 4/140 or 5/155 for Suggs.

Almost the entire board had a cow because they thought it was way too high.

Now I am getting concerned that it wasn't high enough.

I do not think anybody thought he had it in him based on what he has shown since the all-star break.

I did not think he had it in him.

If he keeps up this pace, he will get close to the max.

How does one shoot over 47% from 3 over a half a season?

[Mike lorenzo]

Does a Kuzma/Giddey trade make sense? Who should add value?

[oldncreaky]

A couple of things:

I think it is better as its own topic because most Magic fans are thinking pretty close to this and it will save conflict.

I put no valuation on Suggs at all and that is the point of the post.

I am pretty sure I know what valuation Suggs is not, but have no idea on what he is and I doubt anyone else has an idea at this point.

On a sort of related note what # would you offer him on an extension? If his camp ask for Vassell money would you agree? Do you have a limit you would stop at and let him go into RFA?

Several weeks ago I told the Magic board that I was calculating a 4/140 or 5/155 for Suggs.

Almost the entire board had a cow because they thought it was way too high.

Now I am getting concerned that it wasn't high enough.

I do not think anybody thought he had it in him based on what he has shown since the all-star break.

I did not think he had it in him.

If he keeps up this pace, he will get close to the max.

How does one shoot over 47% from 3 over a half a season?

It's an interesting situation for Orlando: do they (1) extend Suggs ASAP, and risk a wild overpay based on a short stretch of games or (2) wait until he is a RFA in 2025 and evaluate on his last 1.5 seasons, but pass up any chance at a discount.

Tough choice, but I'd lean to (1), sign him ASAP even if the amount is as high as you're proposing: a rising cap will make contracts look better, and 4/140 could end up looking like an absolute steal if Suggs' development is real. He's an elite defender, which IMO makes the downside risks much lower because he'll always have a role.

[jayjaysee]

Suggs signing a front loaded 5yr155 feels like a win for Orlando. First year won’t matter with Paolo still cheap.

[NYG]

Does a Kuzma/Giddey trade make sense? Who should add value?

I have Giddey as worth more, but not a ton more.

[Karate Diop]

I don't think they will but I'd love a massive fire sale in Brooklyn... Just wipe the slate clean as nobody has any clue what their role is and the sum of the parts are somehow less than the whole.

[NYG]

I don't think they will but I'd love a massive fire sale in Brooklyn... Just wipe the slate clean as nobody has any clue what their role is and the sum of the parts are somehow less than the whole.

I see them letting Claxton walk and trading Cam for an expiring but otherwise mostly running it back with a new coach.

[islandboy53]

If PHI goes cap space route, they can start FA as a 2 max contracts cap space team, and be 2nd Apron team in few minutes, especially if Maxey somehow gets to all NBA.
141 (cap) - 13 (Maxey's cap hold) + 8 (room exception) + 42 (Maxey supermax) is ~179, add 7 vet min contracts and you're at 190+
Is this possible? Or does using cap space hardcap at certain Apron?

Let's back up a bit. To maximize cap space, Philly will need to ditch Reed's non guaranteed deal. That leaves them with Embid, Maxey's hold, a hold for their FRP, currently 15th, and 9 minimum holds, for a total of about $79.2 million, and cap space of just under $62 million. Whether that gets you 2 max contracts or not, let's say you spend $61 million, so you can still use your room exception, which you do, then add Maxey, your rookie and your minimums to get you to a full roster. I get that totalling just over $180 million rather than 190+, but still that's over the 1st apron.

In this situation, they would be an over the apron team, and subject to those very restrictive rules. They would not be capped at that apron, as I see it.

The room exception, per NBAFAQ, "is available only to teams that drop far enough below the cap to use cap room, and therefore lose their Bi-Annual, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level and Taxpayer Mid-Level exceptions". At the same time, as the article referenced in another post notes, the triggers for apron hard caps are basically all the things that are unavailable to teams operating under the cap.

With all that said, whatever total salary they get to will be a de facto hard cap since they will have really no way to add salary, other than a single vet minimum if they left 1 roster spot open initially.

[Tripod]

I don't think they will but I'd love a massive fire sale in Brooklyn... Just wipe the slate clean as nobody has any clue what their role is and the sum of the parts are somehow less than the whole.

I see them letting Claxton walk and trading Cam for an expiring but otherwise mostly running it back with a new coach.

Cam for an expiring? Why may I ask.

Like JUST an expiring? If so, you can have Bruce Brown...lol.

[NYG]

I don't think they will but I'd love a massive fire sale in Brooklyn... Just wipe the slate clean as nobody has any clue what their role is and the sum of the parts are somehow less than the whole.

I see them letting Claxton walk and trading Cam for an expiring but otherwise mostly running it back with a new coach.

Cam for an expiring? Why may I ask.

Like JUST an expiring? If so, you can have Bruce Brown...lol.

Sorry I meant expiring and asset to help with their 2025 plan

[shrink]

Conclusion:

The problem with including Suggs in any trade is that no one can tell if this is a new normal (probably not, but Magic fans hope) or a blip.

He has a history of improving during the season and carrying over that improvement. However, that is a sample size of 1.

Clearly, the arc of improvement is almost unbelievable and no Magic fan should have expected it after the first year.

Trading him before seeing where he levels off would not be very smart.

Good post. And that decision-making is amplified, because next year, ORL is going to have to determine how big a contract they are willing to commit to. Eight years ago, the Magic’s previous front office traded Victor Oladipo after three seasons, later saying that a big factor was that they didn’t know how much they wanted to pay him on their next contract.

How big a number would Suggs want in an extension? If you don’t extend him, do you think you’ll be willing to match whatever offer he gets elsewhere? Do you trade him now and pass the uncertainty to another team, but if he blows up, did you trade him for peanuts?

We don’t talk enough about the front office’s job to manage uncertainty and risk, but you’re right. Jalen Suggs uncertain three year sample makes him a poster child for this kind of discussion.

[NYG]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.

Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
Indiana
Minnesota
Sacramento
Toronto

[K_chile22]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.

Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
Indiana
Minnesota
Sacramento
Toronto

With Jalen Green blowing up like he is I think the rockets do... Nothing really. Make the BKN pick, guarantee all the non guarantees, sign a third string PG and situational shooter type. Bank on having Tari, good backup C play and just all the young guys being a bit better next year. Have the net rating of a 47 win team rn, blew a lot of games as young teams do, don't think they need to do anything drastic to make a bit of a leap.

FVV/Amen
Jalen/Cam
Dillon/Tari
Jabari
Sengun/Adams

Is already their nine man rotation with the Nets pick, Tate, Green, Landale as reserves

[Colbinii]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.

Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
Indiana
Minnesota
Sacramento
Toronto

Minnesota is running it back--mostly. Likely trying to replace SlowMo with Minnott and/or Miller like the team internally is high on Jaylen Clark while McLaughlin likely returns on a near-minimum deal. The team will also be using their late 1st to--hopefully--add cheap depth.

I think a team could come in with a Gobert-like offer and get Minnesota to sell Towns, but with his injury, all signs are pointing to keeping the core intact (ANT, Towns, Gobert, Jaden, Conley, NAW, Reid) and stay optimistic on their young talent filling in the gaps.

[LarsV8]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.
Houston

I think they are still looking for a true franchise player to build around. Right now, we have basically the best supporting cast you could ask for, but its unclear if a true #1, offensive engine, exists on the team.

If Trae, Embiid, Doncic or anyone shakes loose, I am sure they will put together a very competitive package. Maybe even Mitchell to a lesser extent. While the Rockets don't have the pick trove other teams do, they could absolutely include some of their core guys to help even the offers. I could very easily see them making a package around Sengun, for example, who has always been a questionable fit (Sengun for Trae makes a ton of sense to me for both teams). They really are well positioned to make trades with the number of assets they have and expiring money, as well as good depth to fill holes the trade might create.

They are positioned to be able to offer max cap space after next year so I doubt they will extend Sengun or Green. This would also mean not trading for anyone with long term money, unless they are truly worth giving up the cap space route. Guys like Lauri, Bridges, Ingram, fit the bill there.

For the draft, I think they would draft Sarr if they jumped, but I have a harder time seeing them keeping the pick if it is 8-10, unless perhaps a real long term fit is there they love. Perhaps Shepard falls and he could slot in as your long term backup PG, or maybe they really like Clingan as a long term rim protector they have been lacking for some time. Teams aren't exactly broadcasting their draft evals, so who knows, maybe they have C.Williams or Risacher as a potential star. For reference, the guys that are interesting to me are (Sarr, Risacher, Williams, Shep, Clingan, and Dunn)

I could see also see them trading that pick for a good rotation guy that doesn't kill their cap, maybe a guy like Caruso, although #8 seems like too much.

Stone's strategy is a bit of a mystery at this point, so we will have to wait and see. There really is a ton of different directions we can go.

[K_chile22]

Don't even want to engage with this silly idea but I just gotta say: they're not trading Sengun.
Think stone might be bad but not THAT bad

[LarsV8]

There is a contingent of Sengun honor guard out there who will attempt to shut down any reasonable discussion on him, and put him on a pedestal, so its pointless to engage on a dialogue with them on that.

However, based on what our relevant insiders have said, the organization does not view him as an untouchable piece, and has demonstrated that in some of their maneuvering. There is no reasonable reason that he could not be included in trade, specifically one that brings back a better piece. Now they certainly aren't shopping him for shopping's sake, as he is an outstanding player, but he could absolutely be moved in a consolidation type deal.

Interestingly, this is something we have seen with Sengun's closest contemporary, in Sabonis, a promising young player, who was traded not once, but twice, for a superior player.

[Mavrelous]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.

Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
Indiana
Minnesota
Sacramento
Toronto

DAL needs to figure out whether Green is the 3&D guard in the starting lineup, DJJ is better than him defensively, but DJJ problems is lack of spacing, and need an offensive guard off the bench after THJ regressed since January and Hardy isn't breaking out, but the biggest question is on the sidelines, Kidd was a foot and half out of the door in January, it took 73 points from Luka in ATL and a tight win in ORL despite Kidd making a late game mistake to fend off the axe, team pulled off a 7-0 run after that, then again the team went on 1-5 losing stretch that they responded from with 6-1 run.
If Mavs don't finish the season strong, he's getting replaced.

[daoneandonly]

There's a few teams where I'm not totally sure what their off-season plan is... could fans of these teams let me know.

Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
Indiana
Minnesota
Sacramento
Toronto

DAL needs to figure out whether Green is the 3&D guard in the starting lineup, DJJ is better than him defensively, but DJJ problems is lack of spacing, and need an offensive guard off the bench after THJ regressed since January and Hardy isn't breaking out, but the biggest question is on the sidelines, Kidd was a foot and half out of the door in January, it took 73 points from Luka in ATL and a tight win in ORL despite Kidd making a late game mistake to fend off the axe, team pulled off a 7-0 run after that, then again the team went on 1-5 losing stretch that they responded from with 6-1 run.
If Mavs don't finish the season strong, he's getting replaced.

I think Kidd should be replaced regardless, he's just so bad at his job and always deflects blame on everyone else, that's not a leader. Dallas also needs to part ways with THJ and Green, and somehow get a starting caliber SF

[Devilanche]

There is a contingent of Sengun honor guard out there who will attempt to shut down any reasonable discussion on him, and put him on a pedestal, so its pointless to engage on a dialogue with them on that.

However, based on what our relevant insiders have said, the organization does not view him as an untouchable piece, and has demonstrated that in some of their maneuvering. There is no reasonable reason that he could not be included in trade, specifically one that brings back a better piece. Now they certainly aren't shopping him for shopping's sake, as he is an outstanding player, but he could absolutely be moved in a consolidation type deal.

Interestingly, this is something we have seen with Sengun's closest contemporary, in Sabonis, a promising young player, who was traded not once, but twice, for a superior player.

The first time sabonis was traded he wasn’t really a player of any note though.