What Now? 2024 Off-Season Predictions

[jayjaysee]

The new CBA will neuter the transaction era,
2010-2024

Only once teams already over that apron really though right?

And most teams weren’t willing to go that far over the apron anyways.

Milwaukee, LAC and Phoenix were asset poor teams that knew the CBA was coming that pushed further in this year.. Miami made a really poor decision I’o, but it matches that they locked up another big contract knowing the penalties that will come..

Boston is set up to survive the new CBA right? They’ve got all their future picks and will have their core together through their primes..

New York is set up nicely to have a great group together and hopefully consolidate for a star before going over that apron and living with the penalties..

Teams just shouldn’t the apron until they are contenders. But how many teams did that anyways?

[VCfor3]

Grizzlies are one of the most intriguing teams this offseason (for me).

+holding a 2024 top7 1st
+holding all own 1sts (plus extra 2030 swap)
+long overdue for a consolidation trade
+youth has looked OK on a bad team (VWJ, Aldama)
+of course Ja coming back
+JJJ is nice young building block, as is Bane

So, who do they go after? Center is a major need. SF a need (more so if they use Bane, VMJ and others to build offer for stud SF).

I could see a Utah trade. They have some affordable talent. Something like this I guess:

Kessler + Clarkson + lottery protected first rounder (say Utah's worst of the Minnesota/Utah 1sts in 2028)
for
#6 + Konchar + Kennard

Save 4M, get a young starting center and a bench scorer who makes sense on their 2nd unit for Ja-Smart-Claxton in the backcourt, Bane/Vince Williams/GG on the wing and JJJ and Kessler as the bigs with Clarke and Aldama backing them up is a solid team. Bank a future first.

Utah gets another chance to grab a quality wing to go with Lauri or a high pick if they deal Lauri for many firsts somewhere and go full tank.

Or just #6, Kennard and a couple future firsts for Markkanen and go all in on shooting bigs making pristine spacing for Ja.

I would hope we'd go for the Markkanen option between those two. I'm not sure Kessler is the one I want to burn our one high quality asset on though I don't know if a better center will be available for trade or not.

[Ell Curry]

I would hope we'd go for the Markkanen option between those two. I'm not sure Kessler is the one I want to burn our one high quality asset on though I don't know if a better center will be available for trade or not.

My guess is that the #6 or so pick in this draft isn't nearly as high an asset as we think, more like a pick around #12 or #13 in a normal draft, but obviously with enough future picks there might be a Markkanen deal available.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see Memphis move it for a solid starter on a good contract.

Or I could also see them trading down for the 2 OKC picks, you presumably still get the #2 center in the draft like Missi or Clingan with #10 and then still have #13. Maybe even move #13 and some combo of Kennard, Clarke and Ziaire for a decent starter on a good deal like #13, Clarke and Kennard for Kuzma, which saves Memphis a few million to get under the tax and Kuzma is a decent PF.

Something like this would be interesting if Atlanta is interested:

Memphis - Okongwu, Bogdanovic
Atlanta - #6, Kennard, Clarke, Zaire Williams, Rose

Sets up Memphis nicely (though right at the cap) if they can find a passable minimum center.

Okongwu-Backup5
JJJ-Aldama
VMW-GG
Smart-Bogdanovic
Ja-Smart

Atlanta drafts whatever SF falls to them (Holland, Rissacher, Williams, Salaun) to make a Trae-Dejounte-SF-Johnson-Capela starting 5.

[K_chile22]

I doubt they both change but I would love to see NOP move Ingram and Zion.. Zion to the Knicks for Robinson/Randle and a handful of picks, then send those picks + Ingram to Garland... Would the Pistons send their high lottery pick to Markkanen? Would the Jazz accept that? Could MAGIC go after Towns?

I don't think he'd be shopped but if he was I'd expect Houston to be aggressive after Zion. They were very interested last off-season. Jalen and their to ten pick ass the core of the offer with more draft capital probably included

[vincecarter4pres]

The Pistons finally balanced out their roster and replaced some deadwood with players that can actually play. And they still have their $60-70M in cap space. They should be active shoring up their wings/PFs.

Is Miles Bridges going to be available?
Also, what is the Pistons 2024 draft pick worth?

I would say that like the 3rd pick in this draft should be expected to produce like an average role player with minimal star potential. Maybe some good but not great young player that a team doesn't want to pay. Like, Trey Murphy at the high end and Walker Kessler at the low end. Murphy, Kessler, Jalen Johnson, Josh Giddey (Not a Giddey fan to be clear)... Guys like that

Idk bro, I think you’re on one.

I get this draft is expected to be weak, I get these guys you mention aren’t scrubs, but the 3rd overall pick as the centerpiece of a trade still needs to bring back something better than these guys except Johnson, who Atlanta would be crazy to trade for that. Giddey supposedly couldn’t be given away after all his troubles.

From your lips to God’s ears though if the Nets can sneak in and trade Cam T for the 3rd overall.

[Mike lorenzo]

Let's say Detroit gets a pick in the 1/3 range and sends it for Lauri. Is it light? Or an excessive payment? Who says no? If Boston doesn't win the championship...would Brown be available? How far is this?
Trae on Spurs..

J.Grant/OO to Boston

Brown/Vassell+Picks back to Hawks

Griffin/Hunter to Blazers

[Decipher]

Let's say Detroit gets a pick in the 1/3 range and sends it for Lauri. Is it light? Or an excessive payment? Who says no? If Boston doesn't win the championship...would Brown be available? How far is this?
Trae on Spurs..

J.Grant/OO to Boston

Brown/Vassell+Picks back to Hawks

Griffin/Hunter to Blazers

It’s light if the draft thread is correct

[HadAnEffectHere]

Let's say Detroit gets a pick in the 1/3 range and sends it for Lauri. Is it light? Or an excessive payment? Who says no? If Boston doesn't win the championship...would Brown be available? How far is this?
Trae on Spurs..

J.Grant/OO to Boston

Brown/Vassell+Picks back to Hawks

Griffin/Hunter to Blazers

The 3rd pick has very minimal value this year. Alexandre Sarr is likely to be the 3rd pick and he has a max ceiling of Nic Claxton. Cody Williams (who will probably go #1) has a ceiling of Pascal Siakam and is the only guy with any realistic star potential.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Jazz hinted at their strategy recently and it goes

1. Hope something goes wrong with another team and a star goes on the block
2. Hope that star is OK playing in Utah
3. Hope that OKC/SAS doesn't want that star or that OKC/SAS has already spent on their assets on a different star
4. Hope their assets are appealing enough to trade for the star on the market who wants to play in Utah and who OKC/SAS do not want or can't get.

(I bring up OKC/SAS as they have better assets than Utah and are much more appealing destinations than Utah due to their much greater likelihood of winning a title in the next five years)

Another wrinkle is that the Jazz need to renegotiate and extend Markkanen to a five year max this offseason so he won't be tradeable until January 2025 after they do that. Markkanen has questionable trade value in the 2024 offseason because he's on an expiring contract and will be much more valuable once he has a five year max. This issue and the Jazz wanting to wait and see if any star becomes available, means that Markkanen won't be traded until the trade deadline next year most likely. Would be very surprised by an offseason trade of him.

[jbk1234]

The new CBA will neuter the transaction era,
2010-2024

Only once teams already over that apron really though right?

And most teams weren’t willing to go that far over the apron anyways.

Milwaukee, LAC and Phoenix were asset poor teams that knew the CBA was coming that pushed further in this year.. Miami made a really poor decision I’o, but it matches that they locked up another big contract knowing the penalties that will come..

Boston is set up to survive the new CBA right? They’ve got all their future picks and will have their core together through their primes..

New York is set up nicely to have a great group together and hopefully consolidate for a star before going over that apron and living with the penalties..

Teams just shouldn’t the apron until they are contenders. But how many teams did that anyways?

All of Tatum, Derrick White, and Jrue need new contracts for BOS.

[jayjaysee]

The new CBA will neuter the transaction era,
2010-2024

Only once teams already over that apron really though right?

And most teams weren’t willing to go that far over the apron anyways.

Milwaukee, LAC and Phoenix were asset poor teams that knew the CBA was coming that pushed further in this year.. Miami made a really poor decision I’o, but it matches that they locked up another big contract knowing the penalties that will come..

Boston is set up to survive the new CBA right? They’ve got all their future picks and will have their core together through their primes..

New York is set up nicely to have a great group together and hopefully consolidate for a star before going over that apron and living with the penalties..

Teams just shouldn’t the apron until they are contenders. But how many teams did that anyways?

All of Tatum, Derrick White, and Jrue need new contracts for BOS.

And Boston can pay them whatever they want to keep the group together through the run.

The new CBA doesn’t kill teams moving pieces, just teams need to be smarter before going over the apron.

But I just feel like most teams weren’t actually willing to pay that much in taxes anyways..

[QMemphis]

I would hope we'd go for the Markkanen option between those two. I'm not sure Kessler is the one I want to burn our one high quality asset on though I don't know if a better center will be available for trade or not.

My guess is that the #6 or so pick in this draft isn't nearly as high an asset as we think, more like a pick around #12 or #13 in a normal draft, but obviously with enough future picks there might be a Markkanen deal available.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see Memphis move it for a solid starter on a good contract.

Or I could also see them trading down for the 2 OKC picks, you presumably still get the #2 center in the draft like Missi or Clingan with #10 and then still have #13. Maybe even move #13 and some combo of Kennard, Clarke and Ziaire for a decent starter on a good deal like #13, Clarke and Kennard for Kuzma, which saves Memphis a few million to get under the tax and Kuzma is a decent PF.

Something like this would be interesting if Atlanta is interested:

Memphis - Okongwu, Bogdanovic
Atlanta - #6, Kennard, Clarke, Zaire Williams, Rose

Sets up Memphis nicely (though right at the cap) if they can find a passable minimum center.

Okongwu-Backup5
JJJ-Aldama
VMW-GG
Smart-Bogdanovic
Ja-Smart


Atlanta drafts whatever SF falls to them (Holland, Rissacher, Williams, Salaun) to make a Trae-Dejounte-SF-Johnson-Capela starting 5.

LOL No, and where is Bane??? We definitely should be targeting either Bridges&Claxton, Lauri&Goga, or Deni&Hartenstein.

[JKiddy]

Hawks blow it up and realize they can get much for Trae.

I think Trae goes to BK. They take about 3 firsts from BK and a player or two with Dejounte and build around them and tank next season for the 1st pick.

[TimDunkin]

Hawks blow it up and realize they can get much for Trae.

I think Trae goes to BK. They take about 3 firsts from BK and a player or two with Dejounte and build around them and tank next season for the 1st pick.

The Spurs own that pick - unprotected.

[Ball4life32]

Hawks blow it up and realize they can get much for Trae.

I think Trae goes to BK. They take about 3 firsts from BK and a player or two with Dejounte and build around them and tank next season for the 1st pick.

The Spurs own that pick - unprotected.

Yeah and 3 picks and players (unless it was Bridges) is not getting Trae. Trae is only 25 too, hawks are going to retool around him… he guarantees the hawks a top 10 offense.

[TimDunkin]

Hawks blow it up and realize they can get much for Trae.

I think Trae goes to BK. They take about 3 firsts from BK and a player or two with Dejounte and build around them and tank next season for the 1st pick.

The Spurs own that pick - unprotected.

Yeah and 3 picks and players (unless it was Bridges) is not getting Trae. Trae is only 25 too, hawks are going to retool around him.

Podcasts are already talking about the Lakers trying to get Trae in the offseason because they'll have 3 firsts to offer. Marc Stein has something out today about rival executives thinking Atlanta would be willing to move on from Trae but it's behind a pay wall.

I'm already tired of watching the Spurs be terrible, so I'd be all for trying to get him even though it's probably not the wisest approach in building out the foundation for a hopefully long Wemby career in SA.

[BK_2020]

Siakam with half a season left on his deal was traded for 3 firsts. Let's be realistic, you are not getting Trae for 3 picks.
But muh podcasts. Are we seriously using what podcasts say as the barometer of what star players are worth?

[TimDunkin]

Siakam with half a season left on his deal was traded for 3 firsts. Let's be realistic, you are not getting Trae for 3 picks.
But muh podcasts. Are we seriously using what podcasts say as the barometer of what star players are worth?

Those podcasts do include people that have been in NBA front offices, and they weren't saying 3 firsts will get a star like Trae - only that the Lakers would try. Obviously, the Lakers are not well positioned to be outbidding teams in trade talks this offseason.

[Ball4life32]

The Spurs own that pick - unprotected.

Yeah and 3 picks and players (unless it was Bridges) is not getting Trae. Trae is only 25 too, hawks are going to retool around him.

Podcasts are already talking about the Lakers trying to get Trae in the offseason because they'll have 3 firsts to offer. Marc Stein has something out today about rival executives thinking Atlanta would be willing to move on from Trae but it's behind a pay wall.

I'm already tired of watching the Spurs be terrible, so I'd be all for trying to get him even though it's probably not the wisest approach in building out the foundation for a hopefully long Wemby career in SA.

Lakers do not have the assets for Trae, they also pushed Murray to LA hard when a deal was never close. But the same article says rivals executives are hoping he becomes available which they said the same thing last year. So many clickbait rumors with the hawks.

Yeah agree I would like to see them make win now moves in the offseason with how good Wemby is already. Could see them taking a leap depending on who they can get.

[JKiddy]

I think Trae will be a Brooklyn Net in 5 months if the players are cool with him coming..... stay tuned