More Value: Towns or Markannen

[HartfordWhalers]

Came up in another thread, and I absolutely see it as being a legit question.

Usual disclaimer, trade value means highest reasonable offer. The question isn't which fits better with your team, but which would get a higher overall return if traded.

Link to player's stats if needed:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/townska01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/markkla01.html

Contracts:
Towns: $36,016,200 this season $49,245,000 next season $53,184,600 '25-26 $57,124,200 '26-27 $61,063,800 '27-28 Player Option
Markkanen: $17,259,999 this season $18,044,544 next season, then Unrestricted

[Domejandro]

My general view is that, despite Karl-Anthony Towns' contract being massive, the vast majority of teams that would give up a ton of value for a player would substantially prefer the security of Towns being locked in over the potential flight risk of Lauri Markkanen.

When you are giving up a star/superstar package for a player, I think security is a huge consideration.

[babyjax13]

Since Lauri is expiring it is Towns. If Lauri is renegotiated and extended, I think he is a lot easier to fit onto any team because he's not a center and he'd be cheaper. Centers anchor most defenses and neither Lauri nor Towns is good enough defensively to do that. Neither is an absolute sieve, either.

[HornetJail]

Towns:
+ overall better player
+ contract locked down for much longer
+ much more accomplished career
- injury prone
- contract has downside if he remains injury prone
- can be an odd fit with a team with an established C

Lauri:
+ 1.5 years younger
+ next contract will be smaller than KAT's
+ not a weird fit alongside another C
+ less injury prone (though wouldn't necessarily call his durability a strength either)
- has literally never been on a playoff team
- could leave after 2024-25 if you don't have cap space to re-negotiate and extend his contract
- easier to mask defensive issues at forward than center

I'm taking the better basketball player and hoping for the best. Give me KAT, though the value is closer if you are a team that has the open cap space to immediately re-negotiate a contract with Lauri like the Kings did with Sabonis last year.

[BoogieTime]

Lauri is the better talent IMO.

[tmorgan]

Current status — Towns, significantly.

Once Lauri is R&E’d — pretty close to dead even.

And this, of course, is why it’s very unlikely Markkanen is traded until after he is extended.

[Wolveswin]

As said, Markkanen as expiring means it has to be Towns.

Towns can increase his value with healthy/quality playoff showing.

Markkanen raise and re-sign can only be Utah. So doesn’t help even cap teams (yes, it can be done but very awkward).

[NYG]

I have KAT as the superior player with Markkanen not making up a ton of ground on the weaknesses in KAT's game.

[brackdan70]

Towns is a better player for sure. I think it comes down to how you view the contracts. Towns is a lot of money but locked in for 5. Lauri much less but will get close to a max in his next one and only locked in for one more. I like Towns by a lot but I could see the argument the other way.

[jayjaysee]

The asks for Lauri are what I think Towns gets..

But I think Towns has more value. Unless KAT takes a step, 2025 offseason I’ll have Lauri as more valuable, assuming renegotiation is done. Especially if Ainge does it right and gives Lauri 25 mil extra this offseason..

[SkyHook]

Trade value isn’t just the highest reasonable offer, but also has to include the likelihood that the highest reasonable offer is accepted. Most teams would likely be willing to offer more for a top-tier player who is locked up for a longer period of time, but—barring the perfect moonshot opportunity—this particular comparison is probably a moot question prior to the summer of 2025, the earliest that Lauri can be traded after being R+E.

[Godaddycurse]

im the only one who voted equal

[JayTWill]

Question about Lauri renegotiating and extending this off-season. I understand that the Jazz have cap space to renegotiate the final year of his deal and extend his contract but how much money could he be possibly be leaving on the table if he played out the final year of his contract? I'm just curious to how much more beneficial it is for him to R+E this off-season rather than wait until 2025 since it is constantly brought up.

[Godaddycurse]

Question about Lauri renegotiating and extending this off-season. I understand that the Jazz have cap space to renegotiate the final year of his deal and extend his contract but how much money could he be possibly be leaving on the table if he played out the final year of his contract? I'm just curious to how much more beneficial it is for him to R+E this off-season rather than wait until 2025 since it is constantly brought up.

something like 25M on the table and there is the risk of injury/not getting a long term contract next FA

[HartfordWhalers]

Trade value isn’t just the highest reasonable offer, but also has to include the likelihood that the highest reasonable offer is accepted.

Fully disagree. Just because you don’t sell something for what it’s worth, doesn’t make it worth something different. Just means it’s not for sale.

[LightTheBeam]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

[Domejandro]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

The win percentage is not a good measure of Minnesota's success with and without Karl-Anthony Towns. Strength of schedule has been substantially lower and Minnesota's half-court offense is significantly less potent.

Minnesota would comfortably be the first seed in the Western Conference, if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't get injured.

[SkyHook]

Trade value isn’t just the highest reasonable offer, but also has to include the likelihood that the highest reasonable offer is accepted.

Fully disagree. Just because you don’t sell something for what it’s worth, doesn’t make it worth something different. Just means it’s not for sale.

I respect your right to be wrong.

[LightTheBeam]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

The win percentage is not a good measure of Minnesota's success with and without Karl-Anthony Towns. Strength of schedule has been substantially lower and Minnesota's half-court offense is significantly less potent.

Minnesota would comfortably be the first seed in the Western Conference, if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't get injured.

I'll take your word for it, but a quick look at the game log and i'm not seeing a very easy SOS.

without Towns
Denver (3x)
Cleveland (2x)
LAL (2x)
PHX
GSW
Indiana
Chicago

11 games vs playoff teams, 5 games not.

[Knickfan1982]

14-6 without Towns - 70%
41 - 19 with him - .683

Lots of little injuries over the last 5 years. Not saying that's the end all be all, I just am not sure how many teams are lining up to take that 4/221 contract, let alone give massive value for it.

I think its Lauri by a lot.

And Utah is 30-50 with Lauri....

Towns plays on a good team....Lauri doesn't. Its easier to see a diamond if its surrounded by turds.