Instant Reaction: What Does Golden State Do This Off-Season?

[uraverage]

Hit the lotto and get the first pick. Trade everyone not on a rookie contract.

[basketballwacko2]

What do the Warriors do this off-season?

Do they keep Klay? Do they just run it back mostly? Do they keep CP3 or renounce his salary to get below the tax? If they keep Paul, do they trade him? Do they trade any of the young guys?

I'd say they will let Paul go, and resign Klay to a 3 yr deal for about $45 million he takes less money so they can try to bring in a player who can help them. I'm pretty sure they would like to trade Wiggins and or Green but won't be able to. I don't think they get back into contention before Steph retires.

[R-DAWG]

How about Randle? Warriors kind of have resources Wolves need for Towns. But no way do Wolves trade Towns to West/Warriors. And no way Warriors want Towns 50M. Enter Knicks and Randle…

To Knicks: Towns + Wiggins + Wolves Filler

To Warriors: Randle + DDV or Hart + Wolves Filler

To Wolves: Kuminga + Moody + Bogdanovic + Picks from Warriors and Knicks

No way the Warriors pay for Towns and settle for Randle.

As a Knick fan, I'm intrigued by a Wiggins for Hart swap.

To me, Wiggins is very intriguing. He's only 29 years old, 24 months removed from being the 2nd best player on the team that won the championship, and hasn't suffered any injury that changed his long term outlook. His struggles coincide with him leaving the team to deal with a person matter and while we the fans will never know what that matter is, the team trading for him will and will likely have the opportunity to meet with him prior to the trade. There is a real scenario where an extra offseason, more time since the situation happened, and a change of scenery helps Wiggins regain his form. The best version of Wiggins is a far more valuable player than Josh Hart.

Hart has 3 years - $58.54MM left on his deal while Wiggins has 3 years - $84.67MM left on his deal. Is the upside of Wiggins worth $26MM over 3 years.

From Golden States perspective, if they do a Wiggins for Hart swap (with a 3rd contract routed to a third teams cap space to complete the deal) they get themselves essentially to the cap if they resign Klay to a mid level deal and Payton/Looney opt in. This gives them the flexibility to either use both the non taxpayer midlevel and bi-annual exception OR dangle 2 future 1st rd picks with Chris Paul's contract (I'm sure Washington would be happy to help free up a third 1st rd pick by changing the one time, top-20 protections on the 2030 pick GS owns). There is also an outside path to +/- $33MM in cap space if Payton opts out, Looney is released and only $3MM counts against the cap, and they find a team to flip Josh Hart to without taking back any salary ($28MM if they keep Looney)

I know this is a risk for NY - But Wiggins/Anunoby is a killer perimeter defensive lineup.

[R-DAWG]

My two cents as a Warriors fan, in no particular order:

-Steph isn't getting traded unless he asks for it, full stop. He means too much to the franchise. He's still good enough to be the #1 guy on a contender so you build around him.

-I have a hard time seeing Dray return anything that helps us more than he does, so he probably stays.

-The team needs to have a hard convo with Klay. He's not consistent enough to be a starter or to play 30+ minutes a night or close games regularly. If he's ok taking slightly north of MLE money to be a 6th/7th man then re-sign him. Otherwise thank him for the memories and let him chase another ring/paycheck elsewhere.

-CP3 is getting cut and the team is realizing the cap savings unless a true star becomes available, which isn't likely. We have a slim window to get out of the repeater tax and that requires getting under the tax line this year. Warriors aren't going to keep paying the repeater tax for a Lavine or Grant type player.

-Kuminga needs to be penciled into a starting role next year. Barring a massive trade he's the most likely player we have to be able to fill the #2 option role we desperately need. Moody, Podz, and TJD need to be given as many minutes as they can handle so we can see if they're worth re-signing (especially Moody).

-I expect that Looney will be stretch-waived (only $3M of his $8.5M for next year is guaranteed). He's simply not an effective player anymore. I would hope we use some or all of the MLE to sign a legitimate 5 who will split time with TJD next year. Dray should play as few minutes as possible at the 5 during the regular season.

-Try and move Wiggins and/or GP2 for salary relief or expiring contracts. Honestly, I'd take that THJ/Maxi deal right now. Maybe use the 2nd from that deal and/or some of our own to move GP2 to a cap space team for a TPE (he's expiring).

Roll into next year with something like:

(MLE Big) / TJD
Draymond / Maxi
Kuminga / THJ
Moody / Klay
Curry / Podz

Is it a contender? No. But it's at least an interesting squad with some upward growth potential that's not paying an insane luxury tax bill.

I think the Looney point is interesting - less so on Looney and more so on going back to having a legit center in the lineup. Clint Capela could be an interesting target here (potentially using the Looney/Payton expiring contracts to facilitate the deal with a protected 2025 1st).

Curry/Moody/Kuminga/Draymond/Capela

Biggest concern here is floor spacing and it almost makes more sense, IMO, to run it back with Wiggins and shift Draymond to a bench role:

Curry/Moody/Kuminga/Wiggins/Capela
Ben of Podz/Klay/Green/TJD

This isn't a contending type of team, but it's recalibrating working the young guys in with Steph

[jayjaysee]

Leaving realism.. Wiggins making more than Murray makes me want to come up with a deal there.. then CP is kept to match another big salary.. and Klay is kept and GS ignores the second apron for 3 years..

[oldncreaky]

To Raptors: Wiggins + 2nds or more?

To Pelicans: Poeltl + Moody + GSW 1st or two

To Warriors: Ingram

Pels can cut bait getting assets for expiring Ingram.

Raps get hometown kid.

Warriors risk Ingram expiring/fitting.

Green
Kuminga
Ingram
Klay
Curry

Nothing worthwhile in this for TOR unless the "more" is really, really enticing

Whether you believe TOR next year will be deep in the lottery, a play-in team, or somewhere in between, swapping their only starter-level C (Poeltl) for another non-star wing (Wiggins) simply makes the roster less balanced, more expensive and older.

[AingesBurner]

The absolute ideal outcome for the Warriors (non-Steph asks out timeline) imo is Ainge accepting something like Looney/Kuminga/picks deal for Lauri.

Going into the season with

Curry
Podz/Payton
Wiggins/Moody
Lauri
Dray/TJD

With MLE money still available and under the tax would be great.

I’m out on this unless I can control every pick the Warriors own. All unprotected.

[gswhoops]

My two cents as a Warriors fan, in no particular order:

-Steph isn't getting traded unless he asks for it, full stop. He means too much to the franchise. He's still good enough to be the #1 guy on a contender so you build around him.

-I have a hard time seeing Dray return anything that helps us more than he does, so he probably stays.

-The team needs to have a hard convo with Klay. He's not consistent enough to be a starter or to play 30+ minutes a night or close games regularly. If he's ok taking slightly north of MLE money to be a 6th/7th man then re-sign him. Otherwise thank him for the memories and let him chase another ring/paycheck elsewhere.

-CP3 is getting cut and the team is realizing the cap savings unless a true star becomes available, which isn't likely. We have a slim window to get out of the repeater tax and that requires getting under the tax line this year. Warriors aren't going to keep paying the repeater tax for a Lavine or Grant type player.

-Kuminga needs to be penciled into a starting role next year. Barring a massive trade he's the most likely player we have to be able to fill the #2 option role we desperately need. Moody, Podz, and TJD need to be given as many minutes as they can handle so we can see if they're worth re-signing (especially Moody).

-I expect that Looney will be stretch-waived (only $3M of his $8.5M for next year is guaranteed). He's simply not an effective player anymore. I would hope we use some or all of the MLE to sign a legitimate 5 who will split time with TJD next year. Dray should play as few minutes as possible at the 5 during the regular season.

-Try and move Wiggins and/or GP2 for salary relief or expiring contracts. Honestly, I'd take that THJ/Maxi deal right now. Maybe use the 2nd from that deal and/or some of our own to move GP2 to a cap space team for a TPE (he's expiring).

Roll into next year with something like:

(MLE Big) / TJD
Draymond / Maxi
Kuminga / THJ
Moody / Klay
Curry / Podz

Is it a contender? No. But it's at least an interesting squad with some upward growth potential that's not paying an insane luxury tax bill.

I think the Looney point is interesting - less so on Looney and more so on going back to having a legit center in the lineup. Clint Capela could be an interesting target here (potentially using the Looney/Payton expiring contracts to facilitate the deal with a protected 2025 1st).

Curry/Moody/Kuminga/Draymond/Capela

Biggest concern here is floor spacing and it almost makes more sense, IMO, to run it back with Wiggins and shift Draymond to a bench role:

Curry/Moody/Kuminga/Wiggins/Capela
Ben of Podz/Klay/Green/TJD

This isn't a contending type of team, but it's recalibrating working the young guys in with Steph

I'm not sure Capela is the guy I would target, but the idea of trading GP2/Loon expiring contracts plus picks for a legit starting 5 has me intrigued...would TOR give up Poeltl for that? Would Chicago give up Vuc?

[jayjaysee]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

[Gert42]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

The problem with any Kuminga bid is you basically get one year before RFA, so you better really believe in him because you are going to get a small sample size on your new team (positively or negatively) and he probably won't be playing with as good of players for that year.

[gswhoops]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

[Wolveswin]

If Warriors are willing to keep Paul for salary trading ballast, trading with Wizards is priority #1.

Wiggins + Youth needed (Kuminga?)

FOR

Kuzma + Filler + 2030 GSW 1st returned (top 20 protected)

Something to that effect.

That simple Wizards trade opens up 2x more 1sts: 29 & 31. Warriors would now have expiring Paul + Youth + 4x 1sts and swaps for a star trade (the KD/Mitchell/Gobert package).

And those 29 and 31 1sts (maybe the 27 too) instantly become most valuable owed 1sts in the business with an aging (all-in) Warriors roster. Really any disgruntled star should be in their sights (watching Embiid closely ).

[jayjaysee]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

[Wolveswin]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.

Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.

4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)

If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.

[giberish]

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.

Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.

4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)

If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.

Gutting out the Warriors future that much for a 1 or 2 year run of being a secondary title contender is completely nuts. I don't see a scenario where GS is trading more than 2 future 1sts anyways so the Washington pick is irrelevant.

Looking at the general types of stars that might be traded, I'd put them into 4 types:

1) The young or youngish long-term guys. While great to get, in the unlikely event one is on the market OKC or SA or someone will outbid what GS can offer.

2) The flight risks. While GS is a relatively desirable market it's tough to see someone sticking around as Curry fades and the team has no youth/picks. (also Mitchell - the most obvious guy in this group - is a bad fit anyways).

3) The older guys where you're hoping to milk the last 1-3 years of high-level play. This is the market GS would be looking at (more asset-rich but younger teams like OKC wouldn't be interested). GS's competition would be LAL and perhaps Philly (Phoenix an LAC might be interested but have nothing to trade). GS can make competitive offers without going more than 2 1sts out.

4) The quasi-stars. Guys with some combination of contract/fame/PPG to look like a star without making a star impact. Obviously shouldn't offer too much for these guys.

[Lenneth]

What would be the top bid if Kuminga was made available? I know I’m too high on him..

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

Why would Warriors trade Kuminga if Curry is here? Neither has a problem playing with the other, and his 20 pts in 2024 were a big booster for the Warriors.

[jayjaysee]

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

Why would Warriors trade Kuminga if Curry is here? Neither has a problem playing with the other, and his 20 pts in 2024 were a big booster for the Warriors.

Curry needs the (ceiling of) a 24-28 year old Kuminga.

By the time Kuminga hopefully develops, Curry will likely have declined.. The two time line dream didn’t work out. But Curry has another couple years IMO.

So... Kuminga is the best trade asset and should be the one traded?

[jayjaysee]

I don’t see us trading Kuminga unless it’s part of a package for a star player

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.

Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.

4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)

If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.

That might be the case if you were opening a long window. But Curry has what 3 years left maybe?

Not worth giving up your pick debt through 2031 and not being able to rebuild.

But worth giving up Kuninga, who will be maybe a secondary star/“third best player” type stuck on a rebuilding team in 3 years with no assets. Or he won’t develop and he will just be a meh starter.

So definitely disagree.

Kessler was an unknown at the time of the trade. Sexton was a bad fit with Garland who signed the contact he is on for a reason.. Lauri was a breakout..

I don’t really think any of that compares to Kuminga being a 21 year old who has shown so much..

[Wolveswin]

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.

Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.

4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)

If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.

Gutting out the Warriors future that much for a 1 or 2 year run of being a secondary title contender is completely nuts. I don't see a scenario where GS is trading more than 2 future 1sts anyways so the Washington pick is irrelevant.

Looking at the general types of stars that might be traded, I'd put them into 4 types:

1) The young or youngish long-term guys. While great to get, in the unlikely event one is on the market OKC or SA or someone will outbid what GS can offer.

2) The flight risks. While GS is a relatively desirable market it's tough to see someone sticking around as Curry fades and the team has no youth/picks. (also Mitchell - the most obvious guy in this group - is a bad fit anyways).

3) The older guys where you're hoping to milk the last 1-3 years of high-level play. This is the market GS would be looking at (more asset-rich but younger teams like OKC wouldn't be interested). GS's competition would be LAL and perhaps Philly (Phoenix an LAC might be interested but have nothing to trade). GS can make competitive offers without going more than 2 1sts out.

4) The quasi-stars. Guys with some combination of contract/fame/PPG to look like a star without making a star impact. Obviously shouldn't offer too much for these guys.

Problem with alllll of that is GSW isn’t making bids on these guys in a vacuum. So many teams with way better assets will be in the hunt.

As I prefaced my original post, IF Warriors are going star hunting (which means keeping Paul - not needing negative’ish Wiggins as salary ballast) then they need to prime their asset game. 2x 1sts and current GSW youth most teams will see as meh (especially when Kuminga has only 1 rookie year left on contract) is going to reap no rewards. I mean, unless overpaying for LaVine types.

[Wolveswin]

Yeah, I still think he’s going to really break out. Entering fourth year, but only 21..

But think if you’re building around Curry, you really should be moving him.

Not for Kuzma or the ability to trade multiple firsts post-Curry, that’s just setting up future problems.. But I think teams would trade “2 firsts” or a really good first for him.. and you combine that with CP and whatever else. Or just straight Kuminga+first+? And still reset the repeater tax..

I think you over value Kuminga. If we look at previous star trades as our comps, picks are valued most - without a doubt. Kuminga would be lucky to be the Sexton/Markkanen (at time of trade) or Kessler ‘filler’ that were sent out in previous star trades. 100% the side dish to multiple picks as the main course.

Warriors getting their 2030 pick has major future trade value. Frees up 2x picks - of their own which would have most value in league. Way more than what Kuminga equals.

4x GSW 1sts >> 2x GSW + meh 1st from Kuminga trade (or Kuminga himself)

If Warriors are all in, for a star that makes a chip run realistic, they need all their draft capital which has considerable more value than their meh youth.

That might be the case if you were opening a long window. But Curry has what 3 years left maybe?

Not worth giving up your pick debt through 2031 and not being able to rebuild.

But worth giving up Kuninga, who will be maybe a secondary star/“third best player” type stuck on a rebuilding team in 3 years with no assets. Or he won’t develop and he will just be a meh starter.

So definitely disagree.

Kessler was an unknown at the time of the trade. Sexton was a bad fit with Garland who signed the contact he is on for a reason.. Lauri was a breakout..

I don’t really think any of that compares to Kuminga being a 21 year old who has shown so much..

That is my point, you and Warriors MAY see Kuminga in one light, but you are adding a degree of difficulty in a rare star hunting trade (one even being available), that agrees with your value take on Kuminga. And I think 0% Kuminga has GSW 29 or GSW 31 1st value. And I am talking ability to get both - which is laughable thinking Kuminga has such value.

But if your take is GSW won’t trade all all of that anyway, see my original post. IF Warriors are indeed star hunting (using Paul as salary ballast) they need to up their asset game from likes of Kuminga. Who is volitive value at best and probably meh to many teams who would even entertain trading their true star.

So, if Warriors want to shop in the 2x 1sts + Kuminga bin, that is fine. No problem with that. But to get to the next price point, 29/31 GSW 1sts >>> Kuminga would be needed to compete in that market.