**Predict the Heat 2015-2016 Regular season**

[JazKeyz]

1) 55+
2) either the 2 or 3 seed
3)Bosh 22, Wade 22, Dragic 17
4) Either Winslow or Stoudemire
5)Winslow of course
6) Birdman
7) Chalmers (unfortunately) + Birdman for late first rd picks or a veteran 3 shooter
8) Biggest surprise would be how well the team starts off playing and their record in a good way.
9) Fire him probably
10) Justice Winslow get a triple double.
11) Hassan loses his cool and fights someone over something little like a hard foul.
12) ???
13) HEALTH
14) Success - ECF game 7, Failure- First rd exit

15) ECF against either the Bulls or the Cavs

[JazKeyz]

1) 55+
2) either the 2 or 3 seed
3)Bosh 22, Wade 22, Dragic 17
4) Either Winslow or Stoudemire
5)Winslow of course
6) Birdman
7) Chalmers (unfortunately) + Birdman for late first rd picks or a veteran 3 shooter
8) Biggest surprise would be how well the team starts off playing and their record in a good way.
9) Fire him probably
10) Justice Winslow get a triple double.
11) Hassan loses his cool and fights someone over something little like a hard foul.
12) ???
13) HEALTH
14) Success - ECF game 7, Failure- First rd exit

15) ECF against either the Bulls or the Cavs

[Chalm Down]

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
All of the point guards who have been forsaken (Bazz, Cole, possibly Chalmers if he's traded) will absolutely torch the Heat when they return to Miami.

hmm

[KingDavid]

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
All of the point guards who have been forsaken (Bazz, Cole, possibly Chalmers if he's traded) will absolutely torch the Heat when they return to Miami.

hmm

Pat yourself in the booty, good job.

Much appreciate

[Chalm Down]

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
All of the point guards who have been forsaken (Bazz, Cole, possibly Chalmers if he's traded) will absolutely torch the Heat when they return to Miami.

hmm

Pat yourself in the booty, good job.

Much appreciate

God help them if they ever have to face Rio on another team

[Pure_Basketball]

1) 45 (We have the talent to win 55+ but we have one of the worst coaches in the league)
2) 7th
3) Chris Bosh 18ppg
4) Amare based on his play so far in pre season.
5) Winslow (You would hope)
6) Dragic (Because Spo doesn't know how to use him at all)
7) Mario Chalmes (He needs to go for tax purposes, and the fact that he sucks)
8) How our tempo won't change, and we will continue to have one of the nicest rosters with lowest PPG.
9) Was a beneficiary of good teams.
10) Whiteside 14rpg, which is slightly more than people are guessing.
13) Our tempo and score per game.
14) ECF or bust.

[gom]

its too early but i am gonna bite
All answers should address the regular season:


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
38-40
2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?
9th seed
3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
bosh 24,wade 17,dragic 20
4) Who will be our best overall new addition?
ama're
5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?
winslow
6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
wade
7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
mcbob and mario could be out along with birdman
8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
bosh beasting
9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
fire the spotard/sporon along with smart et tal
10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
whiteside gets the all defensive team on the east,goes to the all star
11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
the spotard will use new signals
12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
i will be banned for "bashing" dwade and the rest of the team because of poor play/coaching
13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
the spotard
14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
heat going to playoff or heat not making it,again

15) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?none heat shall not be in to the playoffs because of poor play

So we save time by banning you now?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[gom]

Ranked in order:

Wade4life3: 61
Yungsin1: 57
shanedude: 55
JazKeyz: 55+ (used 55 for data analysis)
Bishop45: 54
IggieCC: 53
CanesHeatFins: 53
qjz123: 52
Rocky M5: 52
Zasterror: 51
quite shaqly: 51
Seabass777: 50
rio_grande: 50
dancing2thabeet: 50
KingDavid: 49
DWadeno3: 49
Slot Machine: 49
DefenseWins: 48
DaddyCool19: 48
Chalm Down: 47
caliban: 47
gom: 47
yoyoboy: (a lebron fan) 47
dolphinatik: 46
Fischella: (a Mavericks fan) 45
Pure_Basketball: 45
HIF: 44
eddieheatfan: 38-40 (39 used for data analysis)

YAHOO: 50 wins
538 (Nate Silver's CARMELO): 38

Arithmetic Mean: 49.7857
Geometric Mean: 49.5943
Mode: 47
Median: 49.5
Standard Deviation: 4.4419
Variance: 19.7302
Skew: 0.1888

[yungsin1]

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
57
2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?
2 or 3
3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Wade 23 PPG, CB 19 PPG, Whiteside 17 PPG
4) Who will be our best overall new addition?
Richardson
5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?
Richardson
6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Chalmers lol
7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Winslow, Birdman, Chalmers for Melo
8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Leading the East in wins going into allstar break
9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
who cares
10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Not making the finals

Im looking right about Richardson so far. I also should have added Deng to number 7 for trades.

[gom]

Ira Winderman: 44 games
Chris Perkins: 45-48 games, rounding to 47 (which is 46.5 rounded up).

[RexBoyWonder]

Ok I'm back on board and it's time to answer my own questions :




1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
52

2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?
3

3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Bosh-20.4, Wade-18.7, Dragic-18

4) Who will be our best overall new addition?
Green

5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?
TJ

6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Amare, Bird

7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Rio gone

8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Whiteside becomes our MVP, Winslow wins us a playoffs game

9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He couldn't maximize our talent leve. His Girlfend is too hot for him.l

10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
Mcbob triple double
Whiteside leading shot blocker in NBA
TJ with a seven 3 pointers baskets game.

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
Mcbob shaves his head and gets a triple double the following game.

12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
The Kaminsky boys will turn on Justise after a slow start to the season.

13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
3 point shooting.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Success - ECF, failure - anything under reaching game 7 of the second round.

15) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
Game 7 of ECF, tie game with 1 minute left.

[Bishop45]

Rex is byke!

[QUIZ]

12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
The Kaminsky boys will turn on Justise after a slow start to the season.

You have judged us incorrectly Rex, both Iggie and I love Justise. Both of us are rarely ever negative.

[gom]

We are now 36-26. FiveThirtyEight.Com had us for 37-45 on the season:



Oops.

[Chalm Down]

Take that, anuhlitics!





/inb4 only one more win this season

[gom]

Comparing 538's projections of preseason & now:

Preseason:

Cavaliers: 63-19
Celtics: 49-33
Bulls: 48-34
Hawks: 46-36
Raptors: 44-38
Wizards: 41-41
Hornets: 39-43
Pacers: 38-44
Heat: 37-45
Pistons: 37-45
Magic: 36-46
Bucks: 34-48
Knicks: 25-57
Nets: 22-60
76ers: 22-60

Now: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Cavaliers: 59-23 (-4)
Raptors: 55-27 (+11)
Celtics: 50-32 (+1)
Heat: 47-35 (+10)
Hornets: 46-36 (+7)
Hawks: 44-38 (-2)
Pacers: 43-39 (+5)
Pistons: 42-40 (+5)
Wizards: 41-41 (EQ)
Bulls: 40-42 (-8)
Bucks: 35-47 (+1)
Magic: 34-48 (-2)
Knicks: 31-51 (+6)
Nets: 24-58 (+2)
76ers: 12-70 (-10)

[RexBoyWonder]

Comparing 538's projections of preseason & now:

Preseason:

Cavaliers: 63-19
Celtics: 49-33
Bulls: 48-34
Hawks: 46-36
Raptors: 44-38
Wizards: 41-41
Hornets: 39-43
Pacers: 38-44
Heat: 37-45
Pistons: 37-45
Magic: 36-46
Bucks: 34-48
Knicks: 25-57
Nets: 22-60
76ers: 22-60

Now: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Cavaliers: 59-23 (-4)
Raptors: 55-27 (+11)
Celtics: 50-32 (+1)
Heat: 47-35 (+10)
Hornets: 46-36 (+7)
Hawks: 44-38 (-2)
Pacers: 43-39 (+5)
Pistons: 42-40 (+5)
Wizards: 41-41 (EQ)
Bulls: 40-42 (-8)
Bucks: 35-47 (+1)
Magic: 34-48 (-2)
Knicks: 31-51 (+6)
Nets: 24-58 (+2)
76ers: 12-70 (-10)

1. Always thought the site was BS
2. Looks like we're the biggest positive "surprise" this year.

[Chalm Down]

bumpbumpbump

1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?
47

Yay, my expectations were surpassed

2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?
4th

To be determined

3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?
Bosh - 20 PPG
Wade - 17 PPG
Dragic - 16 PPG

1ppg over for Bosh, 2ppg under for Wade, and 2ppg over for Dragic. Eh, not too far off

4) Who will be our best overall new addition?
I'll cheat a bit and say McRoberts, since he didn't play much last year, and he's going to have a different role off the bench this year anyways. He won't fill up the stat sheet with gaudy numbers, but the entire team will just play better when he's on the floor (kind of like a Battier-esque effect).

God, was I obsessed with McRoberts all the way back in the summer too? I may have issues...

5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?
Winslow. Kind of by default, since I don't think Johnson/Richardson/Ennis will get that many minutes this year. I think it will take some time for Winslow's offense to develop (especially his shot), but he can offer good defense and a boost of energy off the bench.

Lol at TJ and JRich not getting minutes. Even with JRich's hot finish to the season, I would probably still say Winslow had the better/more consistent season overall

6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Maybe Winslow or Whiteside -- not necessarily because they'll have bad seasons, but because parts of the fanbase have HUGE expectations for these guys.

Nah. I think they both exceeded expectations lol. I couldn't have imagined Winslow being this good on defense already, and Whiteside has refined several aspects of his game (free throw shooting, lowering number of technicals, etc.)

7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?
Going by recent rumors, Rio and Bird are the main options for a trade. I'd much rather they keep Birdman (at least for sentimental reasons), but ultimately I think it will be an all-or-nothing situation -- either keep both, or trade both and get under the tax.

I guess the writing was on the wall back then. But I couldn't have imagined the blessing that would come in the form of Uncle

8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)
Amar'e will have a better season than most people are anticipating. We may even see some vintage STAT games.

Didn't expect him to start games nor did I expect his defense to improve so much here. Good for Studmire!

9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?
He under-achieved with the talent he had. Hope it's not true, but that's what usually ends up happening.

Death, taxes, and Spo-complaints

10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.
The Heat will be in the top half of the league in rebounding for the first time in years.

13th in total rebounding and 6th in rebound%

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.
All of the point guards who have been forsaken (Bazz, Cole, possibly Chalmers if he's traded) will absolutely torch the Heat when they return to Miami.

This...didn't really happen lol. Maybe next year

12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.
Kaminsky hits the game-winner in the season opener, sending the Kamunists of this board into a state of pure nirvana.

No. THANK GOD.

13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?
Injuries.

I think this was a cop-out answer lol. Actually, you could argue 3-pt shooting was a big factor too.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?
Making it to the second round (or anything beyond) is a success. Losing in the first round is a failure.

I change my mind on this (right before the first round starts, I know ). But I just think the middle of the East is better than what I predicted at the beginning of the season. I just want a competitive first round series. Anything else is gravy

15) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?
It really depends on match-ups, but I think they'll end up losing in the second round.

To be determined

[gom]

So we might see a roster change or 2 down the road, but the core pieces and main rotation is pretty much set. Which means we can have the traditional prediction thread. Last year virtually everyone thought we'll do better then we did, but this is a new team in more ways then one.

All answers should address the regular season:


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?

47 (+9 over last year) (The HEAT have exceeded my projected win count.)

2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?

5th (The HEAT have a 60% chance of finishing 3rd.)

3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?

Wade: 21 ppg (19.1)
Bosh: 19 ppg (19.1)
(Hassan: 14.2)
Dragic: 16 ppg (14.1)

4) Who will be our best overall new addition?

Gerald Green (um, no)

5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?

JustiSe Winslow (Winslow has played more games and was more impactful earlier, but Richardson's shooting has been huge.)

6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?

Luol Deng, but not that disappointing. (Offense has been off at LT 35% from 3 and 12 ppg, but Luol continues to be a huge contributor. Green has been a big disappointment, but expecting much from him (as I did) was misguided.)

7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?

I still think we'll try to move Chalmers for a second round pick to save money and free up space for our other players to blossom.
(We sent off Chalmers and Birdman, acquiring Udrih. Later we dumped salary.)

8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)

Shabazz Napier will prove to be a competent backup PG. (Great sense of humor...)

9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?

Easy. Needs to give young players like Napier, Richardson, and Winslow more court time. (WRONG)

10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.

Whiteside will have five games with five or more blocks and will average 3.5 (puts him up with 1989 Ewing - Patrick Ewing's best year)
(This was actually low.)

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.

Our season? We will bring back either Michael Beasley or someone from the D-League to help in the front court when Stoudemire or Birdman gets injured. That will be weird.
(Nope. Would have been actually possible.)

12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.

A general consensus will build that Spo is at least a positive factor. (Still waiting for people to get on board the SPOtrain)

13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?

Health. (Well, yeah) I was thinking of Wade then and not Bosh.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?

Regular Season: (s)3rd place finish. (f) 7th place finish (We'll see tomorrow if it is a success!)

15) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?

We finish 5th, take out the Bulls/Hawks/Wizards/Raptors (4th) and then exit in the second round to a superior team (Frank Kaminsky's Charlotte). (Bulls and Wizards are out already. Ha! Frank won't likely get 2nd round. I didn't really expect Charlotte to be so good...)

Edit: Didn't read the ones from before, but it's funny how similar mine is to Slot Machine's. (& where it's different)

[KingDavid]

So we might see a roster change or 2 down the road, but the core pieces and main rotation is pretty much set. Which means we can have the traditional prediction thread. Last year virtually everyone thought we'll do better then we did, but this is a new team in more ways then one.

All answers should address the regular season:


1) How many wins will the Heat have in the 2015-2016 season?

49 (+11 over last year) really depends on how we do out of the gates. All the easy games are early this season.

2) What seed will the Heat be to start the Eastern playoffs?

3rd

3) Who will be our 3 leading scorers, and what will their PPG be?

Wade: 20 ppg
Bosh: 17 ppg
Dragic: 15 ppg

4) Who will be our best overall new addition?

Gerald Green. Prolific scorer.

5) Who will be our best rookie/young player (not including Whiteside)?

Justise Winslow.

6) Who will be the biggest disappointment?

Almario Chalmers. His shot might still be broken.

7) What trades will we end up doing during the year (or even before the season starts)?

I still think we'll try to move Chalmers for a second round pick to save money and free up space for our other players to blossom.

8) What will be the biggest surprise of the season? (positive or negative or both)

Positive: Winslow is a top 5 rookie.
Negative: Still the worst second half team in the league.

9) What will our board posters write about Spo once this season is over?

Depends on our record. Radical opinions between being fired or GOAT. The usual.

10) Predict a nice/interesting statistical nugget you can see happening with the team or a player.

Whiteside will have the most blocks in the league.

11) Predict the weirdest moment of the season.

8 blown leads by our team after being ahead 10+ points; but still pull out a win.

12) Predict a RealGM Heat-board development you expect to see with a long time poster/s.

Very random. I don't know how to answer that. Probably "Fk the general board".

13) What will be the biggest factor to impact our success or failure this year?

Coaching. That headless chicken defense and slow offense will be the death of us.

14) What will you consider a success/failure this year?

Regular Season: (s) 4th place finish. (f) depends on health, but anything 6th place or worse.

15) Bonus playoff question - How far will we get in the playoffs and how will our season end?

War with Cleveland in the ECF. Depends on health though. We have some players with a shaky injury history. If we're hurt, we will be a second round team if we face a team like ATL. But I feel we're better than everyone else other than cle and ATL.

Not too bad...