Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[MettaWorldPanda]

Buyout market here we come

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[MettaWorldPanda]

Nice trade for the the Wizards. They get to see if a change of scenery for Bagley works at a position they needed help at and they also get a young player in Livers who's restricted next year that they will be able to keep cheap if they like him. They got paid (2)2nd round picks for this. That's how you make a good deal. Pistons clearly just throwing in the towel to get off of 12.5 million

[Bishop45]

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[twix2500]

Utah is 13-3 since moving Dunn to starting point.

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[VaDe255]

who is he?

A spark plug offensive player best suited off the ball/bench but thinks he’s Luka. A guy who each time he goes down for a significant time with an injury (quite often) the team is noticeably better.

Herro is going to a stretch right now, but he has the skill to put it together.
Similar things happened to Bam in years past, and look at him now. Herro needs to get stronger, but the skill is there. I truly believe the best is yet to come from Herro this year.

I had high expectations for Herro this year, but he's been somewhat disappointing. His inconsistency became more apparent after his 2-point jumpers success, previously at a career high, regressed to his usual levels. This downturn might have been anticipated by those familiar with his shot profile and its inherent inefficiencies.

While his defense and playmaking have shown measurable improvement, as evidenced by statistics, his shot selection remains a point of concern. Over time, he's been taking fewer shots at the rim, and this year, his mid-range attempts have hit an all-time high. This shot profile is inefficient, especially since he isn't drawing enough fouls.

To elevate his game, Herro needs to refine his shot selection. This might involve taking fewer shots overall and reducing his attempts at creating 2-point shots, even though he is quite proficient at them. These shots are not effective enough. Instead, he should focus more on playmaking, cutting, and initiating plays that lead to 3-point opportunities.

Herro has significant potential, and I believe the Heat's analytics and coaching team are cognizant of the adjustments he needs to make. Time, however, is of the essence, and the patience of Heat fans (and maybe the FO) is wearing thin. It's crucial for Herro to adapt and improve quickly.

[SerialChiller]

Wiz open for business...almost forgot about Tyus Jones, I'm still down for a trade of some sort for him too. Him or Rozier we NEED a true PG that isn't ancient Lowry. I personally prefer either of them over Murray honestly...Jones contract at 14M probably means Duncan would have to be involved though and Wiz don't need Herro with Poole. I'd still prefer Rozier for Herro as my top move we could make this year to make a serious run.

[twix2500]

A spark plug offensive player best suited off the ball/bench but thinks he’s Luka. A guy who each time he goes down for a significant time with an injury (quite often) the team is noticeably better.

Herro is going to a stretch right now, but he has the skill to put it together.
Similar things happened to Bam in years past, and look at him now. Herro needs to get stronger, but the skill is there. I truly believe the best is yet to come from Herro this year.

I had high expectations for Herro this year, but he's been somewhat disappointing. His inconsistency became more apparent after his 2-point jumpers, previously at a career high, regressed to his usual levels. This downturn might have been anticipated by those familiar with his shot profile and its inherent inefficiencies.

While his defense and playmaking have shown measurable improvement, as evidenced by statistics, his shot selection remains a point of concern. Over time, he's been taking fewer shots at the rim, and this year, his mid-range attempts have hit an all-time high. This shot profile is inefficient, especially since he isn't drawing enough fouls.

To elevate his game, Herro needs to refine his shot selection. This might involve taking fewer shots overall and reducing his attempts at creating 2-point shots, even though he is quite proficient at them. These shots are not effective enough. Instead, he should focus more on playmaking, cutting, and initiating plays that lead to 3-point opportunities.

Herro has significant potential, and I believe the Heat's analytics and coaching team are cognizant of the adjustments he needs to make. Time, however, is of the essence, and the patience of Heat fans (and maybe the FO) is wearing thin. It's crucial for Herro to adapt and improve quickly.

Herro has started off well in multiple years. It's because he has a lot of adrenaline to prove people wrong as an individual player plus November and December teams do no play serious defense. His numbers usually drop down to the mean as the season progress, as defensive scheme get tougher and the playoff Jimmy returns. Oppurtunity and good shoots are gonna become less and less available. Herro has only played 19 games of his numbers are being carried by his fast start.

I have always compared Herro to Murray as equivalent quality of players.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Wiz open for business...almost forgot about Tyus Jones, I'm still down for a trade of some sort for him too. Him or Rozier we NEED a true PG that isn't ancient Lowry. I personally prefer either of them over Murray honestly...Jones contract at 14M probably means Duncan would have to be involved though and Wiz don't need Herro with Poole. I'd still prefer Rozier for Herro as my top move we could make this year to make a serious run.

Trying to figure out what the Wiz are trying to do. Looks like they are fine taking on money if the deal is right. If they don't view Jones as a long term option then it's in there best interest to deal him but for what I'm trying to figure out. My thinking is they are looking for another PG on a contract that someone is looking to get rid of for an expiring option which could be Jones. Maybe they look into Collin Sexton who's locked into a good deal. They could also be a quiet player for Dejounte Murray. If they trade for Lowry it essentially leaves them with a player that's almost certain to hold out until he gets bought out. Wiz could be a team that's looking for good players on decent deals instead of just selling off like the Pistons just did. Maybe Lowry could be used in a three team deal that gets the Wiz what they want and we end up with Jones and other parts. Robinson to the Wiz seems a bit repetitive to what they already have on the roster.

[SerialChiller]

Wiz open for business...almost forgot about Tyus Jones, I'm still down for a trade of some sort for him too. Him or Rozier we NEED a true PG that isn't ancient Lowry. I personally prefer either of them over Murray honestly...Jones contract at 14M probably means Duncan would have to be involved though and Wiz don't need Herro with Poole. I'd still prefer Rozier for Herro as my top move we could make this year to make a serious run.

Trying to figure out what the Wiz are trying to do. Looks like they are fine taking on money if the deal is right. If they don't view Jones as a long term option then it's in there best interest to deal him but for what I'm trying to figure out. My thinking is they are looking for another PG on a contract that someone is looking to get rid of for an expiring option which could be Jones. Maybe they look into Collin Sexton who's locked into a good deal. They could also be a quiet player for Dejounte Murray. If they trade for Lowry it essentially leaves them with a player that's almost certain to hold out until he gets bought out. Wiz could be a team that's looking for good players on decent deals instead of just selling off like the Pistons just did. Maybe Lowry could be used in a three team deal that gets the Wiz what they want and we end up with Jones and other parts. Robinson to the Wiz seems a bit repetitive to what they already have on the roster.

I'm messing around on the trade machine right now with 3 team trades between us, Wiz, and Hornets hahaha not easy to figure much out there that makes sense. We have such a gap between Martin at 6M and Robinson at 18M it's a big jump with nothing inbetween.

[twix2500]

A spark plug offensive player best suited off the ball/bench but thinks he’s Luka. A guy who each time he goes down for a significant time with an injury (quite often) the team is noticeably better.

Herro is going to a stretch right now, but he has the skill to put it together.
Similar things happened to Bam in years past, and look at him now. Herro needs to get stronger, but the skill is there. I truly believe the best is yet to come from Herro this year.

I had high expectations for Herro this year, but he's been somewhat disappointing. His inconsistency became more apparent after his 2-point jumpers success, previously at a career high, regressed to his usual levels. This downturn might have been anticipated by those familiar with his shot profile and its inherent inefficiencies.

While his defense and playmaking have shown measurable improvement, as evidenced by statistics, his shot selection remains a point of concern. Over time, he's been taking fewer shots at the rim, and this year, his mid-range attempts have hit an all-time high. This shot profile is inefficient, especially since he isn't drawing enough fouls.

To elevate his game, Herro needs to refine his shot selection. This might involve taking fewer shots overall and reducing his attempts at creating 2-point shots, even though he is quite proficient at them. These shots are not effective enough. Instead, he should focus more on playmaking, cutting, and initiating plays that lead to 3-point opportunities.

Herro has significant potential, and I believe the Heat's analytics and coaching team are cognizant of the adjustments he needs to make. Time, however, is of the essence, and the patience of Heat fans (and maybe the FO) is wearing thin. It's crucial for Herro to adapt and improve quickly.

In the mon of Jan, Herro is averaging

17.4 pts, 5 ast, 39 3p%, 4.4 rbs

Which is ok, and likely more indicative or closer too who he is. Defensively he is a target and we all know that. Don't think there is a lot that can be done about it other then Spo trying to scheme him in better Defensively.

Again I like Herro, but here is the thing. Taking "smarter" shots doesn't automatically translate into increase undividual scoring. Herro is very much like Dragic were scoring in "space" is vital to him. The ability to score in a crowd is what separates a role player from a real star. Its not something you just scheme a player to do. Because as defenses tighten up the more your gonna have to score in a crowd.

Surprisingly its something you see Jaquez does. He scores in crowds and gets to the line. That is a unique talent that Jaquez has. Herro may not possesses that talent which may no matter how smart you try to make Herro (he is not a dumb player) he keeps bumping his head on his ceiling (lol).

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[VaDe255]

Herro is going to a stretch right now, but he has the skill to put it together.
Similar things happened to Bam in years past, and look at him now. Herro needs to get stronger, but the skill is there. I truly believe the best is yet to come from Herro this year.

I had high expectations for Herro this year, but he's been somewhat disappointing. His inconsistency became more apparent after his 2-point jumpers success, previously at a career high, regressed to his usual levels. This downturn might have been anticipated by those familiar with his shot profile and its inherent inefficiencies.

While his defense and playmaking have shown measurable improvement, as evidenced by statistics, his shot selection remains a point of concern. Over time, he's been taking fewer shots at the rim, and this year, his mid-range attempts have hit an all-time high. This shot profile is inefficient, especially since he isn't drawing enough fouls.

To elevate his game, Herro needs to refine his shot selection. This might involve taking fewer shots overall and reducing his attempts at creating 2-point shots, even though he is quite proficient at them. These shots are not effective enough. Instead, he should focus more on playmaking, cutting, and initiating plays that lead to 3-point opportunities.

Herro has significant potential, and I believe the Heat's analytics and coaching team are cognizant of the adjustments he needs to make. Time, however, is of the essence, and the patience of Heat fans (and maybe the FO) is wearing thin. It's crucial for Herro to adapt and improve quickly.

In the mon of Jan, Herro is averaging

17.4 pts, 5 ast, 39 3p%, 4.4 rbs

Which is ok, and likely more indicative or closer too who he is. Defensively he is a target and we all know that. Don't think there is a lot that can be done about it other then Spo trying to scheme him in better Defensively.

Again I like Herro, but here is the thing. Taking "smarter" shots doesn't automatically translate into increase undividual scoring. Herro is very much like Dragic were scoring in "space" is vital to him. The ability to score in a crowd is what separates a role player from a real star. Its not something you just scheme a player to do. Because as defenses tighten up the more your gonna have to score in a crowd.

Surprisingly its something you see Jaquez does. He scores in crowds and gets to the line. That is a unique talent that Jaquez has. Herro may not possesses that talent which may no matter how smart you try to make Herro (he is not a dumb player) he keeps bumping his head on his ceiling (lol).

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

How can I take this serious? You're taking a 5 game sample and try to build some narrative around it. Your bias shines through.

19.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 12 games in January 2022
21.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 7 games in February 2022
22.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 13 games in March 2022

20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 66 games in 2022


17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 11 games in January 2023
21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 8 games in February 2023
20.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 15 games in March 2023

20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 67 games in 2023

There is a lot of noise in these samples anyway, it matters who you play, who is guarding you and who is playing with you.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Wiz open for business...almost forgot about Tyus Jones, I'm still down for a trade of some sort for him too. Him or Rozier we NEED a true PG that isn't ancient Lowry. I personally prefer either of them over Murray honestly...Jones contract at 14M probably means Duncan would have to be involved though and Wiz don't need Herro with Poole. I'd still prefer Rozier for Herro as my top move we could make this year to make a serious run.

Trying to figure out what the Wiz are trying to do. Looks like they are fine taking on money if the deal is right. If they don't view Jones as a long term option then it's in there best interest to deal him but for what I'm trying to figure out. My thinking is they are looking for another PG on a contract that someone is looking to get rid of for an expiring option which could be Jones. Maybe they look into Collin Sexton who's locked into a good deal. They could also be a quiet player for Dejounte Murray. If they trade for Lowry it essentially leaves them with a player that's almost certain to hold out until he gets bought out. Wiz could be a team that's looking for good players on decent deals instead of just selling off like the Pistons just did. Maybe Lowry could be used in a three team deal that gets the Wiz what they want and we end up with Jones and other parts. Robinson to the Wiz seems a bit repetitive to what they already have on the roster.

I'm messing around on the trade machine right now with 3 team trades between us, Wiz, and Hornets hahaha not easy to figure much out there that makes sense. We have such a gap between Martin at 6M and Robinson at 18M it's a big jump with nothing inbetween.

Here goes a quick 3 teamer I was messing around with

Miami Heat gets

PG Tyus Jones from Wiz (14.1 expiring)
PG Delon Wright (8.1 expiring)
SF Doug McDermott (13.7 expiring)
SF Cedi Osman (6.7 expiring)


Total in 42.6 and 49.6 Out = 7 million away from super tax and roster filled

Spurs get

PG Kyle Lowry (29.6 expiring)
PG Dru Smith (1.8 million contract dump)
SG Landry Shamet(10.2 non guaranteed expiring)
Some variation of draft picks from both the Wiz and Heat

Wiz get

SF Duncan Robinson (18.1 19.4 19.9-(9.9) guaranteed)
PG Devonte Graham (12.2 and 2.8 million partial next year)
PG Blake Wesley (2.5 3 years)

[twix2500]

I had high expectations for Herro this year, but he's been somewhat disappointing. His inconsistency became more apparent after his 2-point jumpers success, previously at a career high, regressed to his usual levels. This downturn might have been anticipated by those familiar with his shot profile and its inherent inefficiencies.

While his defense and playmaking have shown measurable improvement, as evidenced by statistics, his shot selection remains a point of concern. Over time, he's been taking fewer shots at the rim, and this year, his mid-range attempts have hit an all-time high. This shot profile is inefficient, especially since he isn't drawing enough fouls.

To elevate his game, Herro needs to refine his shot selection. This might involve taking fewer shots overall and reducing his attempts at creating 2-point shots, even though he is quite proficient at them. These shots are not effective enough. Instead, he should focus more on playmaking, cutting, and initiating plays that lead to 3-point opportunities.

Herro has significant potential, and I believe the Heat's analytics and coaching team are cognizant of the adjustments he needs to make. Time, however, is of the essence, and the patience of Heat fans (and maybe the FO) is wearing thin. It's crucial for Herro to adapt and improve quickly.

In the mon of Jan, Herro is averaging

17.4 pts, 5 ast, 39 3p%, 4.4 rbs

Which is ok, and likely more indicative or closer too who he is. Defensively he is a target and we all know that. Don't think there is a lot that can be done about it other then Spo trying to scheme him in better Defensively.

Again I like Herro, but here is the thing. Taking "smarter" shots doesn't automatically translate into increase undividual scoring. Herro is very much like Dragic were scoring in "space" is vital to him. The ability to score in a crowd is what separates a role player from a real star. Its not something you just scheme a player to do. Because as defenses tighten up the more your gonna have to score in a crowd.

Surprisingly its something you see Jaquez does. He scores in crowds and gets to the line. That is a unique talent that Jaquez has. Herro may not possesses that talent which may no matter how smart you try to make Herro (he is not a dumb player) he keeps bumping his head on his ceiling (lol).

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How can I take this serious? You're taking a 5 game sample and try to build some narrative around it. Your bias shines through.

19.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 12 games in January 2022
21.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 7 games in February 2022.
22.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 13 games in March 2022.

17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 11 games in January 2023
21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 8 games in February 2023
20.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 15 games in March 2023

There is a lot of noise in these samples anyway, it matters who you play, who is guarding you and who is playing with you.

Now average all those stats Mr. No Ceiling Man

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[twix2500]

You know what I will just post it. lets just look at Herros averages Jan to April last year/season.

19.1 pts, 3.8 ast, 38 3p%, 4.8 rbs

Nov to Dec last season

22 pts, 5.2 ast, 39.4 3p%, 5.9 rbs


Which is more indicative of who he IS?

Offense league wide is are higher in November and December every season


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[VaDe255]

In the mon of Jan, Herro is averaging

17.4 pts, 5 ast, 39 3p%, 4.4 rbs

Which is ok, and likely more indicative or closer too who he is. Defensively he is a target and we all know that. Don't think there is a lot that can be done about it other then Spo trying to scheme him in better Defensively.

Again I like Herro, but here is the thing. Taking "smarter" shots doesn't automatically translate into increase undividual scoring. Herro is very much like Dragic were scoring in "space" is vital to him. The ability to score in a crowd is what separates a role player from a real star. Its not something you just scheme a player to do. Because as defenses tighten up the more your gonna have to score in a crowd.

Surprisingly its something you see Jaquez does. He scores in crowds and gets to the line. That is a unique talent that Jaquez has. Herro may not possesses that talent which may no matter how smart you try to make Herro (he is not a dumb player) he keeps bumping his head on his ceiling (lol).

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

How can I take this serious? You're taking a 5 game sample and try to build some narrative around it. Your bias shines through.

19.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 12 games in January 2022
21.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 7 games in February 2022.
22.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists in 13 games in March 2022.

17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 11 games in January 2023
21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists in 8 games in February 2023
20.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 15 games in March 2023

There is a lot of noise in these samples anyway, it matters who you play, who is guarding you and who is playing with you.

Now average all those stats Mr. No Ceiling Man

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20.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 32 games in January, February, March 2022
20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 66 games in 2022

19.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 32 games in January, February, March 2023
20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 67 games in 2023

His rebs/assits marginally down (my guess is Jimmy has the ball more, so natural for him to have the ball less). Scoring is basically the same and variance easily accounts for more than the difference here.

[VaDe255]

You know what I will just post it. lets just look at Herros averages Jan to April last year/season.

19.1 pts, 3.8 ast, 38 3p%, 4.8 rbs

Nov to Dec last season

22 pts, 5.2 ast, 39.4 3p%, 5.9 rbs


Which is more indicative of who he IS?

Offense league wide is are higher in November and December every season


Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Except there are games where he played 9 minutes and 19 minutes in April, again this isn't the right way to do it anyway. Because you have to do this with / 36 mins. Where he is basically back to 19.3 ppg in April.

You're just inventing a narrative and then looking for things to make it true instead of doing it the other way around, where you analyze the stats correctly and then make conclusions.

[twix2500]

You know what I will just post it. lets just look at Herros averages Jan to April last year/season.

19.1 pts, 3.8 ast, 38 3p%, 4.8 rbs

Nov to Dec last season

22 pts, 5.2 ast, 39.4 3p%, 5.9 rbs


Which is more indicative of who he IS?

Offense league wide is are higher in November and December every season


Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Except there are games where he played 9 minutes and 19 minutes in April, again this isn't the right way to do it anyway. Because you have to do this with / 36 mins. Where he is basically back to 19.3 ppg in April.

You're just inventing a narrative and then looking for things to make it true instead of doing it the other way around, where you analyze the stats correctly and then make conclusions.

Sigh.....

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[VaDe255]

You know what I will just post it. lets just look at Herros averages Jan to April last year/season.

19.1 pts, 3.8 ast, 38 3p%, 4.8 rbs

Nov to Dec last season

22 pts, 5.2 ast, 39.4 3p%, 5.9 rbs


Which is more indicative of who he IS?

Offense league wide is are higher in November and December every season


Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Except there are games where he played 9 minutes and 19 minutes in April, again this isn't the right way to do it anyway. Because you have to do this with / 36 mins. Where he is basically back to 19.3 ppg in April.

You're just inventing a narrative and then looking for things to make it true instead of doing it the other way around, where you analyze the stats correctly and then make conclusions.

Sigh.....

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I'm not the one who was trying to build a narrative based on 5 games and then completely ignore how many factors flow into these stats.
And especially if you say pace slows down and the games becomes more defence oriented, you would naturally expect players to have lower production.

There is so much noise that goes into all of this and our naive analysis isn't capturing close to to what is needed to make conclusions.

[twix2500]

Except there are games where he played 9 minutes and 19 minutes in April, again this isn't the right way to do it anyway. Because you have to do this with / 36 mins. Where he is basically back to 19.3 ppg in April.

You're just inventing a narrative and then looking for things to make it true instead of doing it the other way around, where you analyze the stats correctly and then make conclusions.

Sigh.....

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I'm not the one who was trying to build a narrative based on 5 games and then completely ignore how many factors flow into these stats.
And especially if you say pace slows down and the games becomes more defence oriented, you would naturally expect players to have lower production.

There is so much noise that goes into all of this and our naive analysis isn't capturing close to to what is needed to make conclusions.

At this point you're just rambling saying you don't like my narrative. And only want to keep yours alive.

Iv have this discussion for over a decade about do not use Nov and Dec stats of a player as a indicator of who he is. Jan thru April is a more reliable point to evaluate him. I had this discussion exactly with someone like you about Josh Richardson. His numbers skyrocket in Nov Dec one season and people got excited with JRich.

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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