SemiOT: Daryl Morey AMA on Reddit

[Wooderson]

Rockets GM Daryl Morey did an AMA (Ask Me Anything) on Reddit earlier today. He was pretty damn honest in a lot of his responses, which was extremely refreshing given our own GMs lack of anything substantive in his infrequent interviews.

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1 ... ts_gm_ama/

A couple highlights:

Q: SEA/OKC was dreadful for three years which allowed them to acquire Durant, Westbrook, and Harden in the Lottery.

Every other contender is in a major-market destination city where high-profile FAs flock to.

How will Houston compete with this by consistently being just ...OK

Signed, Fan Since '92

Morey: Being an extremely crappy team is definitely a well worn path to success in the NBA. Each year, the NBA hands the most valuable asset in the game (a scale wage top 5 pick) and hands it to the most mismanaged teams.

We could go with this approach (in fact the Rockets invented it long ago) but we think our approach can succeed as well and can succeed faster even though it is more difficult.

Q: Daryl,

I was wondering what your view is on the actual returns to analytics in the NBA. It seems to me that because of the way player movement is regulated and because the league is so superstar driven, analytics can be rendered fairly useless if the only goal of the organization is to win a championship. You can collect an amazing group of undervalued players, but unless you have lucked into a superstar or two, your ceiling is likely a Conference Finals appearance.

Is analytics something that really only becomes valuable once you have found a franchise player (i.e. surrounding him with the right talent to win)?


Morey: I think analytics can help improve the quality of nearly all decisions to some extent but as you mention the potential efficacy will vary. The utility of analytics on a decision will also vary but I will just discuss efficacy since you brought it up.

Yes, I agree, what I am stating about acquiring an all-star level player every NBA GM in 1965 could have also stated with confidence. It is just a fact that the structure of our sport requires this. No other major professional team sport comes remotely close to having a player like Lebron James who can single handedly shift a team from winning 3 out of 4 games (09-10 Cavs) to 1 out of 4 games (10-11 Cavs).

The reason for this is numerous with two off the top of my head being fewer players on the court and a near asymptotic distribution function of high end talent. One way I describe it is imagine in baseball when Barry Bonds was at the height of his powers he could have kept calling himself to the plate over and over, ignoring the lineup card. This is essentially what the top players in basketball can do each time down the floor -- they can "call their own number" and make sure the team gets a great possession each time.

I do think analytics can improve the process to getting a top player but as you state, it has not created a new path to winning like has opened up in baseball with analytics where numerous small smart decisions and great roster management on player 2-25 can lead to a championship. No amount of work and good decisions on our players 2-15 could overcome not having an all-star level player.

Q: 1.Which team do you view as the most intimidating? Heat, Thunder, or the new powerhouse Lakers?

2. What is your view on the idea that teams need to build rosters with 2+ superstars to succeed? Do you honestly think you can compete for a championship with a roster similar to what you have in place now?

3. I've heard Royce White, a current player of yours, has a major fear of flying. How have you handled this situation, and what will you do in the future when traveling far for away games?

I'm not a Rockets fan (Hawks fan here), but I'd like to say you've compiled one of the more likable teams in the league. Guys like Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons and Kevin Martin are not only fun to watch but great people too and I wish you the best of success in this upcoming season.

Morey:

1. Miami. I have consistently said this since the team was assembled.

2. You definitely need at least 1 elite player in the top 10-20 of all NBA players (all-star level) to win the championship. There are no counter examples of this. We are not championship contenders right now. All our moves since Yao Ming went down have had the specific goal of acquiring a top level player since that moment. Each change on our team has been designed to acquire players who either have a chance to be an all-star or give us the cap room or trade flexibility to acquire an all-star.

3. Royce White has an issue with anxiety that is more common than people talk about and he has done a good job to bring awareness. It did not affect his ability to fly for games last year and we don't expect it to this year. It certainly did not affect him last year where he was unquestionably one of the top players in the country and the best player on the floor in the Kentucky-Iowa State NCAA tournament game.

I can't tell if Morey is the type of GM of would tank if he was allowed to. Given his analytical and statistical approach to the game, part of me seems to think he would rather rely on his own ability, then go down the full rebuild/lottery path. But he also clearly knows that top tier talent resides at the top of the lottery, and that is what dominates the landscape of the NBA.

[emunney]

Wish he was our GM. On top of all the great analytical basketball thinking, that baseball analogy is a sick little piece of rhetoric for explaining the value of a great basketball player. What we've named the incremental process here would be a lot easier to swallow if we were doing it like Houston does it, with a realistic eye to the future but a refusal to beg for it.

[paulpressey25]

I think this season will tell the tale on Morey v. Kohl/Hammond.

I love listening to Morey and wish he were our GM. But there is a plausible path where the Bucks actually end up with a brighter short term and mid term future at least as far as it relates to being a good win now team with a low ceiling.

I'd much rather have Houston's roster and cap, but Morey really needs to deliver some sort of pathway this year also. These young guys have to show some potential.

[Nebula1]

Houston Rockets basketball... at least we know they won't be very good and possibly a lottery team. Morey has generally sucked as a GM, but maybe this year Houston will get a shot at a top pick.

[MilBucksBackOnTop06]

Houston Rockets basketball... at least we know they won't be very good and possibly a lottery team. Morey has generally sucked as a GM, but maybe this year Houston will get a shot at a top pick.

I think that is wrong way to thinking once again...think of what you are typing. Morey does not suck as a GM. His only problem was Yao Ming went down...like dog Bogut went down for us! That is the only reason they are not a beast in the West just like Portland and Oden went down for them.

He just had sense enough to move on quicker then the Bucks did with Bogut. If Ming could play they could get to the finals if they kept Scola and Martin and had Lin. Three years ago we all thought Portland had a dynasty with GM Kevin Pricthard. Times changed.

They just fell on hard times when your #1 overall pick does not stay healthy. The ONLY REASON the Bucks and the Rockets are not top 3 in their conferences is busts like Ming and Bogut did not pan out and the GM's could not get to the point where they could build the right players around them.

Both Bogut and Ming could have been All Stars and or Superstars but turned out as scrubs. That is not Morey's fault. It is poor player development and soft bodied players. Atleast like Kahn in Minnesota Morey has a plan.

The Bucks had Bogut and messed up the TJ Ford, Yi Jianlian, Joe Alexander draft picks. And then Hammond has the nerve to call OKC "lucky." No, they know what the F they are doing! And they know how to draft. That is why they are in the position they are in.

Houston missed it with McGrady and Yao getting hurt after Steve Francis left.

[randy84]

IMO, Morey and Hammond are the same. When Yao went down, Morey still kept trying to make the playoffs instead of tearing it all down, just like Hammond did. The big difference for me between the two is that Morey doesn't have an overbearing owner meddling with his plans. He has been able to implement everything like he wants and still hasn't had any results. Hammond has to deal with a meddling owner.

Morey just gets all the pub because he supposedly uses analytics to create his team. He may be using it, but it ain't working. And the fact that he lost out massively on D-Ho just goes to show that he isn't any smarter than any other GM in the league.

I hate to bang on a Wisconsin guy, but he is massively overhyped for what his resume shows. I agree with PP, this year will be very telling on whether or not Morey really has a plan or is just wing it like Hammond.

Here's an article on the guy: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/7/6/31 ... gency-2012

[paulpressey25]

I do like Houston's roster though. I'd much rather go into the season with a ton of young guys at every position.

And Lin and Asik are moneyball type guys who have the potential to outplay their contracts. I'd rather invest the total of $40 million Morey put down on those guys than the $30 million we put down on Corey Magette, $45 million on RJ, $20 million on Stephen Jackson, etc.

Logic though tells you since none of the guys on their roster were top ten draft picks (except the asterisk for Sean Livingston), the results aren't going to be great.

This is why despite the excitement I have for Tobias and Henson, the fact neither guy was a top ten pick logically tells me neither guy will be a game changer.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

tobias dropped because of how and when he came out. to me hes the type of guy you could sometimes steal like in the old days with the hs kids. i think if hed stayed til his soph or junior year wed never have sniffed him that late.

[paulpressey25]

tobias dropped because of how and when he came out. to me hes the type of guy you could sometimes steal like in the old days with the hs kids. i think if hed stayed til his soph or junior year wed never have sniffed him that late.

Can you get lucky late in the draft (from the 11th pick on downward) on a good role player? Certainly.

But how many guys picked after position ten make at least one all star game in their career? Is there a stat site that allows you to look that up?

Most writers that do those studies find out that the chance of selecting a player picked after slot 10 who makes at least one ASG in their career is highly remote. We can hope that either Tobias or Henson are that 1% shot. But my guess is those are the type of odds we are looking at.

[randy84]

I do like Houston's roster though. I'd much rather go into the season with a ton of young guys at every position.

And Lin and Asik are moneyball type guys who have the potential to outplay their contracts. I'd rather invest the total of $40 million Morey put down on those guys than the $30 million we put down on Corey Magette, $45 million on RJ, $20 million on Stephen Jackson, etc.

Logic though tells you since none of the guys on their roster were top ten draft picks (except the asterisk for Sean Livingston), the results aren't going to be great.

This is why despite the excitement I have for Tobias and Henson, the fact neither guy was a top ten pick logically tells me neither guy will be a game changer.

I don't know. Actually, I like our roster heading into next year. We will have Dalembert, Monta (more than likely), Udrih, Przy, and Dunleavy all off the books. We will have a young roster with Jennings, Illy, Harris, Sanders, Udoh, Luc, Henson, Lamb and unfortunately Gooden. Find a decent young SG and that team is set for long term growth. Keep them together for awhile and they might do something like the Brewers did last year.

[emunney]

If you believe it's a pure dice roll, I'd estimate you have a multiple all-star drafted outside of the top 10 every 2-3 years or so. Multiple all-stars drafted outside of the top 10 currently in the league:

Rondo
David West
Boozer
Tony Parker
Arenas
Manu
Rashard Lewis
Jermaine O'Neal
Nash

And Brad Miller just retired. Obviously none of those guys are franchise changers by themselves, and the Spurs needed two of them PLUS a home run at #1 overall to achieve what they've achieved.

If you add one time all-stars, the list grows pretty dramatically, but you also get a bunch of farts in the wind to paraphrase Ron Wolf.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

tobias dropped because of how and when he came out. to me hes the type of guy you could sometimes steal like in the old days with the hs kids. i think if hed stayed til his soph or junior year wed never have sniffed him that late.

Can you get lucky late in the draft (from the 11th pick on downward) on a good role player? Certainly.

But how many guys picked after position ten make at least one all star game in their career? Is there a stat site that allows you to look that up?

Most writers that do those studies find out that the chance of selecting a player picked after slot 10 who makes at least one ASG in their career is highly remote. We can hope that either Tobias or Henson are that 1% shot. But my guess is those are the type of odds we are looking at.

id like to see somebody compile a list of freshman selected after pick 10 over the last 10-15 years.... id bet wed see a higher range of booms and busts. plus im more optimistic than i would be right now if i hadnt actually seen him for a year knowing hes the youngest guy in the league. all im saying is that theres nothing really "typical" about the kid when you factor that in. he should get lumped into a much smaller sample for his projection than simply "draft position". were a year in now.... that changes everything. just like it did with potsie it does the same with tobias.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

ok... i was kinda wrong about higher likelihood of busting. just the opposite. we have a much bigger likelihood of a boom here. heres my list from 2001 draft forward for hs or freshman draftees taken in the 11-25th draft range. its a pretty encouraging list to me. i omitted centers as they skewed it a bit with teams that reached..... so just positions 1-4..... and it includes everybody else as long as hs or freshman class.

2001 draft------
zach randolph(19)
gerald wallace(25)

2002 draft------
none

2003 draft------
travis outlaw(23)

2004 draft------
sebastion telfair(13)
kris humpries(14)
al jefferson(15)
josh smith(17)
jr smith(18)
dorrell wright(19)

2005 draft------
gerald green(18)

2006 draft------
shawne williams(17)

2007 draft------
thad young(12)
javaris crittendon(19)
daequan cook(21)

2008 draft------
jerrod bayless(11)
anthony randolph(14)
jj hickson(19)

2009 draft------
jrue holiday(17)

2010 draft------
xavier henry(12)
eric bledsoe(18)
avery bradley(19)

2011 draft------
tobias harris(19)


the vast majority of players on this list have made nice careers for themselves. very few washouts.... and definitely a few true difference makers. not a single superstar but im defintiely optimistic.

[paulpressey25]

I think you should add the centers. And go out to pick 30 as you'll pick up a few other decent players in the first round perhaps.

If you limit your criteria to top 25 and freshman/HS non wings as you did above, It comes back to maybe a 1 in 10 shot that we get Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith. Those still aren't great odds.

[AussieBuck]

IMO, Morey and Hammond are the same. When Yao went down, Morey still kept trying to make the playoffs instead of tearing it all down, just like Hammond did. The big difference for me between the two is that Morey doesn't have an overbearing owner meddling with his plans. He has been able to implement everything like he wants and still hasn't had any results. Hammond has to deal with a meddling owner.

Not even remotely true.

[Nebula1]

I definitely like some of the Rocket pieces now and I'm actually glad they didn't get Howard. Now they can just run the young guys and eventually trade Martin. The difference between Morey and Hammond is Morey isn't collecting a bunch of vets to appease the head coach.

I like the Lin and Asik signings. I like Royce White and Jeremy Lamb and the other young guys. It will be interesting to see where it goes from here, but I think the team should be entertaining to watch develop even if results don't include many wins.

[Wooderson]

Morey's doing another AMA today. Should be interesting since the first one was prior to the Harden trade.

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1 ... s_edition/

[Wooderson]

I think this season will tell the tale on Morey v. Kohl/Hammond.

I love listening to Morey and wish he were our GM. But there is a plausible path where the Bucks actually end up with a brighter short term and mid term future at least as far as it relates to being a good win now team with a low ceiling.

I'd much rather have Houston's roster and cap, but Morey really needs to deliver some sort of pathway this year also. These young guys have to show some potential.

Well the Morey vs Hammond question has turned into a bigger blowout than Bucks vs Heat will be.

Now there's always the Kohl factor where maybe he doesnt allow move like trading Lowry for Torontos first which helped land Harden, but I think thats somewhat of a copout. A smart GM should be able to convince Kohl that asset accumulation and maximation is the ony way to win without blowing it up. And thats Hammonds biggest issue, he has no idea how to take advantage of assets.

[europa]

I think this season will tell the tale on Morey v. Kohl/Hammond.

I love listening to Morey and wish he were our GM. But there is a plausible path where the Bucks actually end up with a brighter short term and mid term future at least as far as it relates to being a good win now team with a low ceiling.

I'd much rather have Houston's roster and cap, but Morey really needs to deliver some sort of pathway this year also. These young guys have to show some potential.

Well the Morey vs Hammond question has turned into a bigger blowout than Bucks vs Heat will be.

Now there's always the Kohl factor where maybe he doesnt allow move like trading Lowry for Torontos first which helped land Harden, but I think thats ssomewhat of a copout. A smart GM should.be able to convince Kohl that asset accumulation and maximation is the ony way to win without blowing it up. And thats Hammonds biggest issue, he has no idea how to take advantage ofassets.

I think this begs the question of whether a really smart GM would want to work for Kohl in the first place or whether Kohl would even hire someone like that. You could make an argument that the two strongest personalities on this team since Nellie left were Karl and Skiles and both of them ended up being fired, the latter after trying not once but twice to be bought out. I'm not sure Kohl wants anyone around who's going to challenge his authority.

[Wooderson]

I think this begs the question of whether a really smart GM would want to work for Kohl in the first place or whether Kohl would even hire someone like that. You could make an argument that the two strongest personalities on this team since Nellie left were Karl and Skiles and both of them ended up being fired, the latter after trying not once but twice to be bought out. I'm not sure Kohl wants anyone around who's going to challenge his authority.

I think there's a good chance that Hammond is all but irrelevant at this point and that he is purely a figurehead GM (and signed a 3 year extension to play that role). So smart vs. inept GM could very well be immaterial at this point. Which is quite funny because there was talk pre-Hammond joining the Bucks that he was going to have full autonomy over personnel decisions.