Chad Ford 6/24 Draft Notes

europa · Post #1 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:06 pm

Great stuff in this one including Riley continuing to try and trade down - but not to take O.J. Mayo. Instead, he's targeting Mike Conley and either Love or Brook Lopez. Some other items that caught my eye.

A GM blasting Riley for passing on Beasley (if he does) and everyone for not ranking Beasley No. 1 instead of Rose:

"Michael Beasley is far and away the best player in this draft," the GM said. "He's going to dominate in this league. How could you pass on him? I know everyone is talking about character this and character that, but come on, he's not a bad kid."

As for Rose, the GM says he thinks he's overrated: "Derrick Rose is a good player, I get that. But he's not a franchise player. I don't think people are getting with Rose what they think they're getting. He's athletic and plays really hard. But he has just decent court vision and can't take over a game offensively."

When asked about the Heat possibly passing on Beasley at No. 2, the GM said, "It's a joke. He's so much better than anything the Heat are going to get offered. I don't understand it."

Comments about Westbrook and Robin Lopez that I am in 100% agreement with. I've been saying this exact same thing about Westbrook for weeks:

Some veteran GMs drafting later in the first round are scratching their heads at our last mock draft -- especially some of the high risers in the draft.

"Russell Westbrook is a role player who probably is a sixth man on a good team," one GM said. "How has he risen to a top-10 pick? I'd take Leandro Barbosa over him any day of the week. Westbrook is athletic, fast and plays defense, but a top-10 pick? I don't see it."

Here's another GM on Robin Lopez: "Can you name the last time a guy who averaged five rebounds per game in college was suddenly labeled a rebounder in the draft? Robin Lopez is a backup, not a lottery or mid-first-round pick."

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... tes-080624

LUKE23 · Post #2 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:12 pm

Agreed 100% on Robin Lopez. Can't believe he's getting ranked as high as he is. Also agree that Riley would be foolish to trade Beasley instead of keeping him and pairing him with Wade and Marion. That is a fearsome trio, and you don't even have to add any scoring around them, just defending role players and you have a contender. Riley is dumb if he does that Memphis deal. Conley is solid, but he's not on Beasley's level as a player and Miami already has a guy that can create and penetrate at will in Wade.

Regarding Westbrook, a sixth man on a contender is still pretty good praise for him. For him to become a starter, it's going to be all about whether or not he develops the PG skills, but that appears to be the part of his game he's focusing on the most.

europa · Post #3 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:16 pm

I agree a sixth man on a good team is a valuable player but I don't think that's the type of player a team should draft with a Top 10 lottery pick. I like Westbrook but I think the lack of impact talent and the lack of standout PGs in this draft have elevated his stock. He's a late-lottery, mid-first round guy in my opinion.

And I don't get the Riley-Beasley thing at all. Yes, he has questions but he also has the talent to put up 20-10 and it's not like he's a Zach Randolph kind of a slug. In this draft, I can't see how anyone can pass on him at two. But Riley is hell bent on trading down. I find it quite interesting, though, he isn't trading down to get Mayo. If that holds up, we can pretty much disregard all the stuff Ford has written about how much Riley loves Mayo and wants to team him with Wade.

LUKE23 · Post #4 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:18 pm

Yeah, I don't see Riley going after Mayo if he's moving the pick. It's either take Beasley and keep him, or draft Beasley and trade him in an outside deal for a non-rookie.

But I do not pass up a Wade/Marion/Beasley trio under any circumstances. If he really wants to be that big of a dumb ass, just give us the #2 pick.

europa · Post #5 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:23 pm

I think Riley will be doing well if turns the No. 2 pick into Conley and Love. A lineup of:

PG: Conley
SG: Wade
SF: Marion
PF: Love
C: Who cares

Looks pretty good.

But as much as I like Conley - and I still like his potential quite a bit - I'd still go with Beasley because a Wade-Beasley-Marion foundation should be pretty damn good.

If Riley trades down with Memphis and takes Brook Lopez I'll shed a tear for Heat fans. Conley-Lopez for Beasley is a bad trade in my opinion.

Post #6 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:24 pm

I was listening to Ford discuss the Memphis and Miami thing yesterday and it sounded more like something he was pulling out of his ass, similar to the Milwaukee/CV/Minnesota thing. He thinks Memphis really wants to move up for Beasley and that if Miami, looking for a PG, was offered Conley and the #5 that they'd have to listen. It doesn't mean that's what Memphis is offering, just Ford speculation.

Beasley's actually become underrated somehow. When you strip away all the stuff peripheral to his actual game on the court, you see a guy that dominated more than any freshman in the history of college basketball. He's gonna be a monster in the NBA. I've also been calling Rose overrated for a long time now.

However, I'm always skeptical of anonymous sources. I want to know what GM is putting this out there and why.

LUKE23 · Post #7 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:27 pm

I'm just hoping the reports of the Sonics taking Lopez are true. That guarantees one of Love/Bayless/Westbrook/Alexander for us, which is the situation I'm hoping we are in. I like Gordon as a talent, but I think we'd have to do a lot of roster maneuvering if he was the pick (i.e. move both Mo and Redd).

On a side note, how much crack are the Clippers on considering doing Maggette/7 for Barbosa/15? Maggette is the best player in the deal and the Clippers, a team that badly needs another guard, drops 8 spots?

I guess there is a reason they are the Clippers if they are considering that.

europa · Post #8 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:30 pm

Just another team looking to trade down Luke.

LUKE23 · Post #9 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:30 pm

europa wrote:Just another team looking to trade down Luke.

The general rule of thumb is, "whatever the Clippers do, do the opposite".

europa · Post #10 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:36 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
europa wrote:Just another team looking to trade down Luke.

The general rule of thumb is, "whatever the Clippers do, do the opposite".

Sadly, that rule has applied to the Bucks lately too. Let's hope Hammond changes that starting on Thursday night.

Post #11 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:39 pm

europa wrote:Just another team looking to trade down Luke.

Takes two to tango. You've got more teams looking to deal up.

europa · Post #12 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:43 pm

Like I said to Luke last night, I don't recall the last time (if ever) so many of the top lottery teams were looking to trade down. Three of the Top 5 are rumored to be looking to move down. Now the Clippers can be added to the list. That's 50% of the Top 8 teams. Again, nothing may happen Thursday night but I still think this is pretty unprecedented.

LUKE23 · Post #13 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:45 pm

Yes, but as DB said, that means many teams are making calls to move up. If the talent was the same in the 15-20 slots as it was in the top 10, then there wouldn't be teams calling looking to move up, they would just stay where they are at, take a comparable player, and pay him less.

europa · Post #14 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:49 pm

I still can't remember the last time 60% of the teams in the Top 5 were reportedly seriously considering trading down. I'm sorry, but I find this to be pretty incredible. Nothing may happen but I don't recall the last time we had these kinds of rumors about the teams in the Top 5 - and especially with the teams who had the second and third picks. Last year, Atlanta wanted no part of trading down, for example. They loved Horford and understandably so. And there was no way in hell the Sonics were going to part with Durant.

Now Durant and Horford are both pretty darn good but I still am blown away by this. If I'm the only one, that's fine. I just think this is incredible to see so many of the top teams apparently not interested in staying where they're at.

Post #15 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:51 pm

europa wrote:Like I said to Luke last night, I don't recall the last time (if ever) so many of the top lottery teams were looking to trade down. Three of the Top 5 are rumored to be looking to move down. Now the Clippers can be added to the list. That's 50% of the Top 8 teams. Again, nothing may happen Thursday night but I still think this is pretty unprecedented.

Riley doesn't like Beasley for some reason, the guy scouts are calling the best player in the draft. Kevin McHale is an idiot. Memphis wants to move up, so does LA, so does Milwaukee.

It all goes back to the depth in this class. You could justify Lopez at three or you could see him fall to 11.

Did anyone else read Ford's article on the tiers in this class? He polled the GMs in the NBA the results:

Tier 1
Michael Beasley
Derrick Rose

Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Beasley on talent and for Rose on position. In other words, most of the folks I spoke with think Beasley is the more talented of the two but believe Rose's combination of size and athleticism at his position makes him the better choice.

Tier 2
Jerryd Bayless
O.J. Mayo

Note: Virtually every team I spoke with has Mayo and Bayless as the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in the draft, regardless of team need. A few teams argued that Mayo should be in Tier 1, but for now, I left him in Tier 2.

Tier 3
Joe Alexander
D.J. Augustin
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
Brook Lopez
Kevin Love
Anthony Randolph
Russell Westbrook

Note: Unlike last year, it is very difficult to get a consensus for this tier. Every team I spoke with has Randolph and Westbrook in this tier. Gallinari was almost a unanimous pick. And there was some debate about Augustin and Alexander, but enough of a consensus to put them here instead of Tier 4.

Pick #13 is where the dropoff is. That's exactly where I've seen it, too. It's the reason I don't want to move back to #13. You risk losing out on one of the good ones by one stinkin' pick.

Post #16 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:54 pm

europa wrote:I still can't remember the last time 60% of the teams in the Top 5 were reportedly seriously considering trading down. I'm sorry, but I find this to be pretty incredible. Nothing may happen but I don't recall the last time we had these kinds of rumors about the teams in the Top 5 - and especially with the teams who had the second and third picks. Last year, Atlanta wanted no part of trading down, for example. They loved Horford and understandably so. And there was no way in hell the Sonics were going to part with Durant.

Now Durant and Horford are both pretty darn good but I still am blown away by this. If I'm the only one, that's fine. I just think this is incredible to see so many of the top teams apparently not interested in staying where they're at.

Where are you getting 60% of the teams in the top five? Is that the magic number you need whenever you want to pull **** out of the air? Like Bogut played at an All-Star level for 60% of the season? That sort of thing?

Memphis wants to move up to #2. So does Seattle (Wilcox rumor and the fact they'd like to pair Durant with his friend Beasley). I don't see Chicago moving down. What's the other team?

LUKE23 · Post #17 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:54 pm

Yep, there is a definite dropoff after the lottery and IMO there is a dropoff before that in the 8/9 range.

I have no interest in moving back to say the mid teens and acquiring an OK player and missing out on guys in the top ten. I can't even think of a deal with Portland I would do given they aren't moving Oden/Roy/Aldridge to move back to #13.

pilprin · Post #18 » by **pilprin** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:56 pm

Mo / Cv/ and #8 Does it equal enough for #2?

Balls2TheWalls · Post #19 » by **Balls2TheWalls** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 3:00 pm

pilprin wrote:Mo / Cv/ and #8 Does it equal enough for #2?

I think that Miami considers it but ends up saying no. They might be trying to trade out, but they want a star for the pick. I don't think we give them enough there.

europa · Post #20 » by **europa** » Tue Jun 24, 2008 3:05 pm

DrugBust wrote:
europa wrote:I still can't remember the last time 60% of the teams in the Top 5 were reportedly seriously considering trading down. I'm sorry, but I find this to be pretty incredible. Nothing may happen but I don't recall the last time we had these kinds of rumors about the teams in the Top 5 - and especially with the teams who had the second and third picks. Last year, Atlanta wanted no part of trading down, for example. They loved Horford and understandably so. And there was no way in hell the Sonics were going to part with Durant.

Now Durant and Horford are both pretty darn good but I still am blown away by this. If I'm the only one, that's fine. I just think this is incredible to see so many of the top teams apparently not interested in staying where they're at.

Where are you getting 60% of the teams in the top five? Is that the magic number you need whenever you want to pull **** out of the air? Like Bogut played at an All-Star level for 60% of the season? That sort of thing?

No need to be a d**k.

2. Miami
3. Minnesota
5. Memphis

These are three of the Top 5 teams who have been reported to be actively considering trading down. Three of five is 60%.

Again I will point out that nothing may happen on Thursday night. Maybe nobody trades down but I can't recall the last time this many of the top teams were reported to be seriously considering trading down.